Big Ten Tourney scenarios - if we don’t beat Maryland in CP

[Baz=Heisman]

I believe we are in regardless of Saturday’s game IF:

-USC loses 1 of their final 2 (vs. Washington, at UCLA)
OR
-Iowa loses 1 of the final 2 (vs. MSU, at Nebby)
OR
-Minnesota loses both final 2 (vs Wisky, at Rutgers)

Anything I miss? We don’t have the tiebreaker with Rutgers and Nebraska as you all know.

 

[Secho99]

I believe we are in regardless of Saturday’s game IF:

-USC loses 1 of their final 2 (vs. Washington, at UCLA)
OR
-Iowa loses 1 of the final 2 (vs. MSU, at Nebby)
OR
-Minnesota loses both final 2 (vs Wisky, at Rutgers)

Anything I miss? We don’t have the tiebreaker with Rutgers and Nebraska as you all know.

We do pretty well in most tiebreakers against other 7-win teams, but not all of them.

Here's a few scenarios:

If we're tied at 7-13 with Minnesota, USC and Iowa we finish 13th
If we're tied at 7-13 with Minnesota, USC, Iowa and Nebraska, we're still 13th
If we're tied at 7-13 with Rutgers, Iowa, USC and Nebraska, we're 15th
If Iowa gets to 8-12 and we're tied at 7-13 with Rutgers, USC and Nebraska we're 16th.

There's a lot of scenarios but only a select few that leave us out.

 

[Catreporter]

We need MSU to clinch the Big Ten regular season title with a win at Iowa tomorrow, but even then, it ain't quite over.

 

[CappyNU]

There are 32 scenarios remaining from the 5 relevant games that impact our chances.

Iowa and Nebraska each have 12 scenarios where they miss out, we have 5 scenarios where we miss out, Rutgers have 2 and USC have 1. Minnesota has clinched a spot even if they lose to Rutgers.

Looking at the kenpom percentages, Iowa misses out 67.2% of the time, Nebraska misses out 23.4% of the time, we have a 4.6% chance of missing, USC has a 3.7% chance and Rutgers has a 1.1% chance.

If MSU wins tonight, our chance of missing drops to 1.5% and would require the exact scenario of USC, Maryland, Iowa and Minnesota winning this weekend for us to miss out.

If Iowa wins, our chance goes up to 14.1%, Iowa's chance drops to 48.6%, Nebraska's chance drops to 16.9%, USC goes up to 15.0% and Rutgers goes up to 4.4%.

 

[SmellyCat]

Thankfully Michigan State roared back to beat Iowa tonight, leaving us with only eight real scenarios left if NU loses to Maryland. Seven of those eight have NU in the tourney. The one we root against? USC beating UCLA (18% chance), Iowa beating Nebraska (28%) and Minnesota beating Rutgers (30%). We're in good shape, but beating Maryland would make me feel better.

Edit: I didn't see Cappy already laid this out before me, but I came here anyway because, hey, Iowa lost!

 

[No Chores]

So, if any one of USC, Iowa, or Minnesota lose this weekend we are in even if we lose to Maryland. Gotta like our chances!

 

[Davidgolds5]

So, if any one of USC, Iowa, or Minnesota lose this weekend we are in even if we lose to Maryland. Gotta like our chances!

Percentages are fantastic but the season has been so bizarre against us that it would be fitting if all of that happened, and each of those games had a horrible call that made it happen.

 

[SmellyCat]

Percentages are fantastic but the season has been so bizarre against us that it would be fitting if all of that happened, and each of those games had a horrible call that made it happen.

Tell me about it. I won't believe it until NU is tipping off next Wednesday.

 

[SmellyCat]

Ok, here are the scenarios in case you're wondering who to root for and who you want on Wednesday:

NU-Md​	UCLA-USC​		Neb-Iowa​	Rutgers-Minn​		Seed​	Opponent​	Game​
Maryland​	UCLA​	​	Iowa​	Minn​	​	15​	Indiana/OSU loser​	10 vs. 15​
Maryland​	USC​	​	Nebraska​	Minn​	​	15​	Indiana/OSU loser​	10 vs. 15​
Maryland​	USC​	​	Iowa​	Rutgers​	​	15​	Indiana/OSU loser​	10 vs. 15​
​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​
Maryland​	UCLA​	​	Nebraska​	Minn​	​	14​	Minnesota​	11 vs. 14​
NU​	USC​	​	Iowa​	Minn​	​	11​	Rutgers​	11 vs. 14​
NU​	USC​	​	Nebraska​	Minn​	​	11​	Rutgers​	11 vs. 14​
NU​	USC​	​	Nebraska​	Rutgers​	​	14​	Rutgers​	11 vs. 14​
Maryland​	USC​	​	Nebraska​	Rutgers​	​	14​	Rutgers​	11 vs. 14​
NU​	UCLA​	​	Iowa​	Minn​	​	11​	USC​	11 vs. 14​
​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​
NU​	UCLA​	​	Iowa​	Rutgers​	​	12​	Minnesota​	12 vs. 13​
Maryland​	UCLA​	​	Iowa​	Rutgers​	​	13​	Minnesota​	12 vs. 13​
NU​	UCLA​	​	Nebraska​	Minn​	​	13​	Nebraska​	12 vs. 13​
NU​	UCLA​	​	Nebraska​	Rutgers​	​	13​	Nebraska​	12 vs. 13​
Maryland​	UCLA​	​	Nebraska​	Rutgers​	​	13​	Nebraska​	12 vs. 13​
NU​	USC​	​	Iowa​	Rutgers​	​	12​	USC​	12 vs. 13​
​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​
Maryland​	USC​	​	Iowa​	Minn​	​	OUT​	OUT​	OUT​

 

[Hungry Jack]

Rutgers is the matchup I like least in the first round. I’m confident we can beat those other teams.

 

[SmellyCat]

Rutgers is the matchup I like least in the first round. I’m confident we can beat those other teams.

USC has to beat UCLA for that to happen, so if you want another reason to root for the Bruins tomorrow, there you go.

 

[PURPLECAT88]

If I get to pick, I choose:

NU

UCLA

Iowa

Rutgers

12

Minnesota

12 vs. 13

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Ok, here are the scenarios in case you're wondering who to root for and who you want on Wednesday:

NU-Md​	UCLA-USC​		Neb-Iowa​	Rutgers-Minn​		Seed​	Opponent​	Game​
Maryland​	UCLA​	​	Iowa​	Minn​	​	15​	Indiana/OSU loser​	10 vs. 15​
Maryland​	USC​	​	Nebraska​	Minn​	​	15​	Indiana/OSU loser​	10 vs. 15​
Maryland​	USC​	​	Iowa​	Rutgers​	​	15​	Indiana/OSU loser​	10 vs. 15​
​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​
Maryland​	UCLA​	​	Nebraska​	Minn​	​	14​	Minnesota​	11 vs. 14​
NU​	USC​	​	Iowa​	Minn​	​	11​	Rutgers​	11 vs. 14​
NU​	USC​	​	Nebraska​	Minn​	​	11​	Rutgers​	11 vs. 14​
NU​	USC​	​	Nebraska​	Rutgers​	​	14​	Rutgers​	11 vs. 14​
Maryland​	USC​	​	Nebraska​	Rutgers​	​	14​	Rutgers​	11 vs. 14​
NU​	UCLA​	​	Iowa​	Minn​	​	11​	USC​	11 vs. 14​
​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​
NU​	UCLA​	​	Iowa​	Rutgers​	​	12​	Minnesota​	12 vs. 13​
Maryland​	UCLA​	​	Iowa​	Rutgers​	​	13​	Minnesota​	12 vs. 13​
NU​	UCLA​	​	Nebraska​	Minn​	​	13​	Nebraska​	12 vs. 13​
NU​	UCLA​	​	Nebraska​	Rutgers​	​	13​	Nebraska​	12 vs. 13​
Maryland​	UCLA​	​	Nebraska​	Rutgers​	​	13​	Nebraska​	12 vs. 13​
NU​	USC​	​	Iowa​	Rutgers​	​	12​	USC​	12 vs. 13​
​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​
Maryland​	USC​	​	Iowa​	Minn​	​	OUT​	OUT​	OUT​

Wow, Smelly, you sure are fastidious.
I would like you to tell me exactly whom we are playing and how much we are going to beat them by.

To me its NU 75 Nebraska 48

 

[SmellyCat]

Wow, Smelly, you sure are fastidious.
I would like you to tell me exactly whom we are playing and how much we are going to beat them by.

To me its NU 75 Nebraska 48

I want Nebraska too. If the favorites all win this weekend, that's what we'll get.

75-48 would be great, but I'll take 49-48 too as long as Northwestern wins!

 

[TheC]

I think OSU would give us a much tougher game the second time around (hard not to). I think Minnesota scares me the least.

 

[Catreporter]

Michigan State had me sweating before their big second half run. Can't see Iowa beating a Nebraska team that still has NCAA dreams on their home court. Minnesota has played well away from home playing at their slow pace, and if Garcia goes off look out, but that Rutgers team has a big edge in talent. USC-UCLA is where I could see an upset. Yes, I would love to play Nebraska at Indy. Don't like the idea of playing OSU after that beatdown we gave them. Thanks for the scenarios, Smelly.

 

[AdamOnFirst]

If we beat Maryland, I'll give a shit about who our matchup is as suddenly we're a very real bubble team. Until then, I'm just excited to see us earn a respectable seed and for our seniors to play at least one more game and have a chance at a Vegas tournament bearth.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

If we beat Maryland, I'll give a shit about who our matchup is as suddenly we're a very real bubble team. Until then, I'm just excited to see us earn a respectable seed and for our seniors to play at least one more game and have a chance at a Vegas tournament bearth.

Do you really think thats true (about the bubble)?
We beat Maryland, we're 8-12, with 10 teams in the Big Ten being 9-11 or better.
We have no good wins outside of conference.
Had we beaten Washington or Nebraska, we're in the discussion, but even if we somehow beat MD again, I think we're still out of it, barring a long run in the BTT.

 

[Davidgolds5]

If we win three in a row, it would be hard to keep us out. Guessing our kenpom at that point would be in the low 40s/high 30s. I don’t think it’s going to happen, but I will be rooting for it.

 

[mickbula]

What is this crown tourney in Vegas? Is it like the nit? And where are the games played in Vegas? And please don't tell me the sphere...

 

[Secho99]

If we win three in a row, it would be hard to keep us out. Guessing our kenpom at that point would be in the low 40s/high 30s. I don’t think it’s going to happen, but I will be rooting for it.

Despite Lunardi keeping us in the ballpark of being one of the last teams out, I'd have to think there's at least 10-12 teams in front of us right now. Then consider that bracketology always assumes favorites winning auto bids, which doesn't account for bid thieves that win conference tournaments in multi-bid leagues and eliminate at-large slots. Then we have to consider that only 3 teams have ever made the tournament as an at-large with 15 losses. I think it's going to require beating Maryland and reaching the semis at the BTT (4 wins in a row) to hop over the group of teams in front of us.

 

[Secho99]

What is this crown tourney in Vegas? Is it like the nit? And where are the games played in Vegas? And please don't tell me the sphere...

16 teams, single elimination, played from 3/31-4/6. First 2 rounds at MGM Grand, semis and final at T-Mobile Arena. First 2 rounds on FS1, semis and final on FOX. Semis will be played the same day as the Final 4, earlier in the day.

They're guaranteeing 2 teams each from the Big 10, Big East and Big 12. They haven't announced how they're picking the other 10 but their advertising has insinuated that all of the teams will be from major conferences. I wouldn't be shocked if all 16 teams are from these 3 leagues (though the Mountain West also partners with FOX so there could be teams from there too).

 

[mesacat]

Will there be an NIT as well?

 

[SimpsonElmwood]

Will there be an NIT as well?

Yes. The agreement with the Crown is the top 2 in the NET not selected for the NCAAs from the B1G are guaranteed. Same for Big East and Big 12.

NIT has a similar agreement with the SEC and ACC (4) plus the top 12 teams from KenPom who are not selected for the NCAA tournament. Note this is at odds with the Crown selection, so I assume teams will have to choose?

There will be 10 at large selections for the Crown and as many as 16 for the NIT. There is also the CBI. Cats will play somewhere. If they don't make it to the NCAAs (still a chance), they should be playing somewhere else.

 

[mesacat]

Hope the Cats playpost-season. They have overcome so much that they deserve a shot at a tourney.

 

[Davidgolds5]

I recall hearing that there is money at stake for the players in the crown

 

[SimpsonElmwood]

I recall hearing that there is money at stake for the players in the crown

During the Iowa game there was a reference to "NIL money" to be announced shortly. The Crown sounds like a cool tournament.

 

[Secho99]

Yes. The agreement with the Crown is the top 2 in the NET not selected for the NCAAs from the B1G are guaranteed. Same for Big East and Big 12.

NIT has a similar agreement with the SEC and ACC (4) plus the top 12 teams from KenPom who are not selected for the NCAA tournament. Note this is at odds with the Crown selection, so I assume teams will have to choose?

There will be 10 at large selections for the Crown and as many as 16 for the NIT. There is also the CBI. Cats will play somewhere. If they don't make it to the NCAAs (still a chance), they should be playing somewhere else.

The NIT will give an automatic bid to one team from each of the top 12 conferences per KenPom, not the top 12 non-NCAA teams overall. Then they'll pick 16 more at-large teams. This means the NIT will give an auto bid to at least one Big 10 team, but the two best leftover Big 10 teams are contractually required to go to the Crown and others may be "strongly encouraged" to pick the Crown (FOX) over the NIT (ESPN) if invited.

With 48 slots between the Crown and the NIT, I think it's pretty clear we'll be playing in something. I would guess the Crown more likely. The CBI hasn't had a power-conference participant since 2019, they seem pretty content to be for mid- and low-majors at this point.

 

[Secho99]

During the Iowa game there was a reference to "NIL money" to be announced shortly. The Crown sounds like a cool tournament.

It seems like there will have to be money at stake. The Crown doesn't even start until March 31, if we for example lose Wednesday at the BTT that would mean 19 days between that and the Crown. I don't know how you get teams to stay together for all that extra time if there isn't a reward for doing so.

Also, the portal opens on March 24.

 

[Davidgolds5]

Playing in Vegas for cash sounds like a great opportunity for our players.