Oh, here we go again. If there is an empty argument that I hate above all else, it’s someone informing me what year it is as if that truth bomb destroys the opposition.
I hate it.
I hate it.
I hate it.
Braun’s future
- Thread starter Baz=Heisman
- Start date
I hate it.
I hate it.
I hate it.
You need to get over that hate. It's not like it's 2023 anymore, man.
If you don’t want to be reminded of what year it is, don’t level forward an argument that is badly out of date and irrelevant due to changing circumstances
All too real for those that went through it. The point is that we are in about the same point as NU was in 1974, second year after Agase departed ( forced out (by lack of support) In some ways we are in a better position (facilities, BIG money and hopefully a more competent and supportive AD) but in other ways worse (higher level of competition and harder bringing in top talent). But we have had a mass exodus of talent and our recruiting has taken a significant dip. It already looks like the next couple years are gonna be pretty much lost causes and if you don't think that we can revisit Dark Ages futility, I would remind you that those that do not remember history are doomed to repeat it.
I am hoping that the things we now have in place will keep us from descending that far. But unless the right moves are made quickly (significantly improving recruiting, getting support rather than resistance from admissions NIL and being able to get talent through the portal), it will be a while before we see a winning record again. Reality is that we are in a very dangerous spot and I do not yet see signs that we are gonna come out of it. Hopefully soon
This is certainly the concern for football. I don't think its as big a problem for basketball.
But it would surprise me if NU suddenly changes its approach to admissions.
The whole thing about "50% of your undergrad credits have to be completed at Northwestern" is pretty important to the university's academic prestige.
In the transfer portal, we're mainly going to be looking at freshmen and sophomores, plus grad students.
Unless guys are playing as underclassmen, its pretty tough to evaluate them from a distance.
Additionally, the pool of grad students is going to shrink dramatically this year. That has been an area where NU has a pretty sizable advantage in recruiting. Ben Bryant, AJ Henning, Richie Hagarty, RJ Pearson and Matt Lawson were all grad transfers signed by Fitzgerald in May of 2023. Cam Johnson was another grad transfer signed in January 2023.
David Braun brought in 5 transfers and 4 were grad students, if I have that right.
So yes, the recruiting rules (and money) have swung hard against Northwestern and our biggest advantage is significantly reduced.
It is not just that there are less grad students but they are more likely to only have one year rather than two years of eligibility left (extra COVID year no longer there). And as far as the Frosh and Soph, often if they are playing they are less likely to move unless it is from a lower level program. And if they have taken extra classes to get ahead of things, even many of the Sophs might be off the board for us. And admissions would then probably put in other restrictions going back to HS grades and admission policies. Only chance might be if we had already tried to recruit them out of HS
Then throw in the fact that our guys can use the portal to go anywhere and they tend to go after they have the degree which is the time they are most likely to be productive. Overall, while we may get assistance in certain instances, portal is more likely to be big negative for us. For sure a questionable way to have to run a program in this day and age
Admissions can do a couple of things... They can refuse to accept some credits a transfer has earned prior to NU. Of the 5 guys that Braun picked up via transfer portal this offseason, 4 were grad transfers, but the 5th guy (Matt Keeler) attended community college and then 3 years at Texas Tech. He is listed as a Redshirt Junior, so NU probably didn't accept all his credits.
The other thing admissions can do is establish a degreed program like Sports Management or whatever that relaxes the "Half of your classes must be from Northwestern" restriction - and come up with a (bs) reason to justify that. Its possible they've already made that move.
But yeah, our best bet is freshmen and sophomores from lesser programs who have the grades and have performed well for their teams. And guys we recruited, as you say. And redshirt grads from Power 4 schools. The good thing is that NU has cache that very few schools have. Even if we don't have the cash.
I don't know if you've watched any of Vandy this year, but the biggest difference is the transfer QB Diego Pavia (and maybe the OC who came with him from New Mexico St), who is making the rest of the team look a lot better and giving the defense new energy under a defensive minded coach. I don't know if you've noticed, but the 2 years out of the last ~5 that we were good were when we had competent (not great really) QB play under Peyton Ramsey and Ben Bryant. Unfortunately this year we do not, and so thus we are not competitive against good B1G teams.
I don't think it's a permanent problem... yet. But it remains to be seen how well Braun and Co can compete in the new modern CFB landscape, particularly with our limited (as of now) NIL resources. Moreover though, I am extremely skeptical that Vanderbilt has achieved some long-term status of being competitive in the SEC under Clark Lea, more likely than not this ends with the departure of Diego Pavia (which I think is after this year?).
FWIW, I agree that we seriously need to look at whether to move on from Lujan after this year. There are issues on the OL, the QB play is limited by inconsistent accuracy on throws, and WR position now thin after injuries, but I don't think the scheme is doing a great job of setting us up for success. And the poor play design, play calling, and execution in the red zone have been particularly jarring.
Go Cats...
Rick
It’s not just the QB. Even in our good years recently we weren’t beating any Alabamas. We hung close with OSU in 2020 but with our offense we weren’t going to be winning championships.
NU isn't going to win championships in the new B1G. Ever. Silly to even mention it.
You cannot point to a year in post-Dark Ages history when NU succeeded absent strong QB play. Maybe 1995 is an exception with a fairly pedestrian Schnur (who really balled out in 1996).
QB is the difference-maker position and NU’s situation makes it nearly impossible going forward to secure (and I use that word with precision) strong QBs. How long NU can hang on in the big-dog leagues, I can’t guess, but once folks catch on, we will be relegated.
Thorson's first year year (2015) was a year without strong QB play yet still a successful team.
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The elephant in the room here is that we have a skewed sense of what "strong QB play" even is. Part of that is down to Fitz's conservative style and our litany of bad offensive coordinators, but as much as I loved watching Thorson he was not a top-flight QB. Ramsey wasn't great, he was mostly average, but that was enough to win the division with our defense.
That team, in retrospect, was hilarious.
Eked out 9 wins - including Zack Oliver’s win over Penn State - against FBS opponents. Beat Stanford and Nebraska bolstered by huge runs from Thorson (126 rushing yard against Nebraska!)
The 13-7 win at Wisconsin, when winning the turnover battle 5-0. (A questionable play in the back of the end zone — ended it.)
But also, they were totally uncompetitive in three blowout losses, and were outscored by FBS opponents for the season.
That was the worst 10-win team in the history of the B1G, and I loved every absurd moment.
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I will take A Thorson in our next 10 recruiting classes.
I think you have it exactly backwards in Thorson, actually. He was QB on an NU team that was, as usually, totally devoid of dangerous or even very good receivers outside one year. He operated in an offense that was very traditional for QBs and didn’t do anything other modern offenses do to make life easier for QBs (ie, quick, single read decisions to speedy guys in space, simplified extended run type plays that drive up passing stats, etc). The system and talent around him suppressed his numbers and production substantially compared to his peers in wider open and more QB friendly offenses.
Your single example from the past nearly 30 years can be filed under “exceptions that prove the rule.”
Respectfully disagree. Every year, we will see a program or two that comes out of nowhere. Starting with a good coaching crew that caught fire on a few recruits, an effective system and players that executed - and maybe some luck. After a couple of years, the rest will figure them out and they will disappear again.
NU did that before, arguably more than once, and can in the very least do it again. But it’s starts with the entire coaching staff. Can’t have any coaches that don’t pull their weight - regardless how nice they are or their story feels good.
Except the entire context has changed with compensation. More money yields more wins. Will the new context be more like the NBA or MLB? I bet it’s the NBA model with QBs (who undoubtedly have become more determinative of team success in recent decades) demanding the highest pay.
Pay to Play: An Analysis of Payroll and Performance in the MLB and NBA
By: Kobe Chen, Steve Dalla, Michael Hume, Andrew Kelser, Jason Kwak, Ben Meron, and Paurakh Rijal Introduction Money talks… or at least the saying goes, and why wouldn’t it? In sports, common sense…
harvardsportsanalysis.org
Sure but the lowball budget teams will still sneak in. This year you have BYU, Army, Memphis and Navy as examples of performing teams that probably don’t have a bigger NIL budget than NU.Except the entire context has changed with compensation. More money yields more wins. Will the new context be more like the NBA or MLB? I bet it’s the NBA model with QBs (who undoubtedly have become more determinative of team success in recent decades) demanding the highest pay.
Pay to Play: An Analysis of Payroll and Performance in the MLB and NBA
By: Kobe Chen, Steve Dalla, Michael Hume, Andrew Kelser, Jason Kwak, Ben Meron, and Paurakh Rijal Introduction Money talks… or at least the saying goes, and why wouldn’t it? In sports, common sense…
Just like most years - excluding this one - you see a small budget baseball team run deep into the playoffs like Miami, Tampa, KC, As.
Because money doesn’t always work. You can pay but expensive but ineffective pieces. Coaches that really aren’t that good or lost the hunger, players that simply aren’t as good as believed or aren’t trained and put into a system feeding their strengths.
Well yeah, me too, he's our all-time passing leader and he got drafted in the 5th round. I didn't say he was bad!
Sure, but even if we take that as gospel, it may not have been his fault but it still means we didn't have especially strong QB play during his career. The thesis here was that NU needs strong QB play in order to be competitive, and these are the stat lines of our QBs during our two recent division title seasons:
2018: 13 games, 299/489 (.611), 3183 yds (6.5 YPA), 17 TD, 15 INT
2020: 9 games, 172/282 (.610), 1733 yds (6.1 YPA), 12 TD, 8 INT
Neither of those lines is bad, but they also aren't at all remarkable, and yet we went a combined 14-2 in conference play with those lines. It's absolutely true that we need solid play from the QB position - you can't win in the modern game without a capable QB no matter who you are - but the idea that NIL is going to forever lock us out of any QB better than Ryan Hilinski and doom us to 3-win seasons at best is patently absurd.
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The stats only bolster my case. Both Siemian and Thorson played on Sundays for a time yet looked pedestrian at NU on our ridiculous system. Our coaches held two talented qbs back for years, we could have had so much more out of them.
Yes, again, my point is that we didn't get strong QB play, not that we didn't have talented QBs. And yes, Thorson would have looked much better in a more QB-friendly system, but he wouldn't have been the sort of star player that commanded obscene amounts of NIL money.
(Also, for the record, Thorson never played in an NFL game that counted, while Siemian started more NFL games (33!) than any NU QB not named Otto Graham)
For what its worth, BYU is in the Big 12 now and has played the 29th toughest schedule in the country. They 're 8-0.
Only five teams in the Big Ten have played a more difficult schedule than BYU.
And those teams are UCLA, USC, Purdue, Michigan State and Michigan.
BYU has played a tougher schedule than Oho State, Indiana, Penn State and Oregon.
You're right about Army, Navy and Memphis playing soft schedules.
Yep. BYU also has some real history behind it and is definitely not a minor player.
Except those teams will not be in the picture after the cut down to 30-36 teams (to pair with NFL clubs). Within those clubs your point will hold. But to get into that select number you are going to have to spend, spend, spend.
Regarding Ramsey, his year with us was the worst statistically of his career (maybe same with they guy from last year). So he was a very capable quarterback. And the type we will not secure in the NIL era. There are many programs that would pay him much more now . And that is not absurd, it’s our future. Now, if we end up with a Siemien-like player who outperforms his expectations, we can take advantage of that until he’s an upperclassman and he is bought out by a big boy.
This remains one of the dumber football theories I’ve ever seen, thank you, I needed that
Really if we do dump Braun, we will be in great shape. The facilities and stadium are a huge plus regardless of what anyone says (at least they are table stakes to be serious). We absolutely have the right AD who understands NIL and how to win national championships in revenue sports including football and we have B1G money. If we can find a way to address the admissions issues, what else is there? And I always thought the admissions issue was way over blown (see Gary Barnett, multiple ranked classes, and 3 B1G championships in 6 years). We just have to do well in getting every top kid who can be admitted to come. Pool is smaller, but we also can be a lot more targeted. And $$$, which I believe is going to turn our way big time with Jackson and the rules changes.
Heard Vandy beat someone of note…
When was the last time the Oregon and Washington state schools were relevant? Oh, about every other decade each. I thought IU was a basketball school - last time they went to rose bowl, my dad was in the band.
Believe what you want but I bet every year, a non factory team shows up in the playoffs and wins a game or two. Also bet Rutgers, Maryland, Washington, Oregon, USC, UCLA do the same
lol. So you think BYU has Ohio state / Alabama NIL budget? Cuz that’s the topic here. Not history. IU has zero football history and ….
What cut down? Is that when CFB tells NCAA to pound sand and officially separates?
Yes, Ramsey's year with us was his worst statistical season, but he wasn't all that great in 2017 or 2018 either. 2019, though, was legitimately good.
Ultimately, I don't share your cynicism about the future. Yes, NU is small, but we have truly impressive facilities across the board, we are in the conference that gets by far the most TV money, and we have a billionaire donor who loves to throw money at us. And if you're worried about NU getting thrown out of the conference, even apart from the fact that charter members can't be thrown out, we are the school that gives BTN open access to the Chicago TV market.
Now as you suggest, if the entire sport falls apart and restructures itself into a 35 team league or something, we'll be on the cut line for sure. But there's way too much money flying around for that to be realistic, and the pending B1G-SEC scheduling agreement suggests that both conferences are locking themselves into place for the long haul. So why make yourself miserable expecting the absolute worst?
My impression was that BYU spent a lot of money in the portal this year.
As some people know, LDS (Mormon) church members are admitted to BYU at 50% of the tuition charged to non-LDS students.
Tuition is HEAVILY discounted for everybody - $13k per academic year for non-LDS. $6500 for LDS students.
There are very deep pockets at BYU and it is primarily church money.
Of course most Mormon families pay 10% of their income(?) to the church annually - by church law.
(At least thats my understanding)
Yes they do. Billionaire alum who owns the Jazz and Utah Hockey Club is bankrolling BYU football and basketball.
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