Bubble watch

[Baz=Heisman]

I am absolutely still of the mindset we are not yet in. We need one more win. With that being said, here’s the bubble watch.

- Oregon lost
- Mississippi State lost
- NC State lost
- Minnesota won (fringe bubble but they will be highly motivated against us next Saturday)
- South Florida won (advanced metrics hate them but they’re pretty good record wise)

Anyone I miss?

We want MSU to lose, Oklahoma to lose and TCU to lose I believe. But someone who is more of a bracketologist help me if you’d like hah.

 

[Akeehn0912]

NU was a projected 7 seed before today’s game. I don’t see any way they don’t get in. I’d like to see 1 more win but I’m pretty comfortable they’re getting in.

 

[FeralFelidae]

I am absolutely still of the mindset we are not yet in. We need one more win. With that being said, here’s the bubble watch.

- Oregon lost
- Mississippi State lost
- NC State lost
- Minnesota won (fringe bubble but they will be highly motivated against us next Saturday)
- South Florida won (advanced metrics hate them but they’re pretty good record wise)

Anyone I miss?

We want MSU to lose, Oklahoma to lose and TCU to lose I believe. But someone who is more of a bracketologist help me if you’d like hah.

If we lose out, we are in big trouble.

 

[Baz=Heisman]

NU was a projected 7 seed before today’s game. I don’t see any way they don’t get in. I’d like to see 1 more win but I’m pretty comfortable they’re getting in.

DeCourcy has us as a 7. I think the consensus is a 9. We can’t afford to lose out. Gotta get one more.

 

[NUAlum2010]

I posted in another thread, but the issue beyond wins and losses with NU losing out - especially if Nicholson is done - is that it opens the team up to the argument that the current squad is not the one that built the majority of the resume. I don’t know how the selection committee assesses that stuff, but it’s a reasonable argument that I don’t want anyone having on selection Sunday.

 

[PurpWildCatNation]

We are one of 5 teams in the conference with 4 or more road wins... that's the barometer for me even with the Chicago State loss. Having said that Michigan State is a must win if we want to punch our ticket before the BTT.

 

[Zootcat]

I posted in another thread, but the issue beyond wins and losses with NU losing out - especially if Nicholson is done - is that it opens the team up to the argument that the current squad is not the one that built the majority of the resume. I don’t know how the selection committee assesses that stuff, but it’s a reasonable argument that I don’t want anyone having on selection Sunday.

This is what concerns me too. I think if we win one more, and Nicholson and Langborg both come back, that concern goes away.

 

[Secho99]

I am absolutely still of the mindset we are not yet in. We need one more win. With that being said, here’s the bubble watch.

- Oregon lost
- Mississippi State lost
- NC State lost
- Minnesota won (fringe bubble but they will be highly motivated against us next Saturday)
- South Florida won (advanced metrics hate them but they’re pretty good record wise)

Anyone I miss?

We want MSU to lose, Oklahoma to lose and TCU to lose I believe. But someone who is more of a bracketologist help me if you’d like hah.

I think we're fine. Obviously we don't want to lose out, but going into today we were likely on the 8 line (the best of the 8 seeds based on the consensus at Bracketmatrix), which means all 4 of the 9s, all 4 of the 10s and all 6 of the 11s (because 4 11s will play in) are below us (plus any 8s we may be ahead of). That's at least 14 teams that would have to pass us. There could be a couple bid stealers that cut into that, but we're fine right now.

The committee has said in recent years that they have stopped weighing current form in determining the field, so we're still getting just as much credit for beating Purdue in December as we did then. Now, injuries may affect our seeding, but that's another discussion.

 

[AdamOnFirst]

R-E-L-A-X

 

[Baz=Heisman]

R-E-L-A-X

I’ll relax if we win 1 of the final 2 lol

 

[wildcatpn]

We are one of 5 teams in the conference with 4 or more road wins... that's the barometer for me even with the Chicago State loss. Having said that Michigan State is a must win if we want to punch our ticket before the BTT.

What? We might be in already no matter what happens the rest of the way. And we are in for sure if we lose to MSU but beat Minnesota before the BTT.

 

[hdhntr1]

I

This is what concerns me too. I think if we win one more, and Nicholson and Langborg both come back, that concern goes away.

f they come back then the committee looks at the losses differently and more likely to cut us some slack

 

[Baz=Heisman]

What? We might be in already no matter what happens the rest of the way. And we are in for sure if we lose to MSU but beat Minnesota before the BTT.

Yes. But either way we need to win 1 to lock it in.

 

[SmellyCat]

I am seriously not worried about making the tourney even if NU loses their last four. Circumstances.

What I'm worried about is having the players to perform well in the tourney. I'm not even convinced Langborg is coming back, let alone Nicholson.

 

[loyolacat]

So what does an invite to the Dance mean? Is it a reward for a good season or a tournament for who they think the best 68 teams are at the moment? I think it makes a difference for NU if Lonborg and MN still questionable come selection time. Also may determine how important our B10 tournament performance is evaluated.

 

[EvanstonCat]

If we lose out we are not going to the tourney. That’s a four game losing streak. I think we need to win two more games to lock. Either both regular season games or one and one in the BTT, or we lose two regular season games and need to win 2 in the BTT. Win one more only and it will be close, but I think we may be out with a 1-3 finish. Hate to say it but we will get FSU’d if we don’t finish with some demonstration that we are tournament caliber after the injuries.

 

[NUAlum2010]

If we lose out we are not going to the tourney. That’s a four game losing streak. I think we need to win two more games to lock. Either both regular season games or one and one in the BTT, or we lose two regular season games and need to win 2 in the BTT. Win one more only and it will be close, but I think we may be out with a 1-3 finish. Hate to say it but we will get FSU’d if we don’t finish with some demonstration that we are tournament caliber after the injuries.

NU is a slam dunk to make the tournament if they win on Wednesday night. They could lose to Minnesota to close the season and whomever they would get in the quarters of the B1G tournament in that case and it wouldn’t matter. They’d still probably be an 8 seed.

 

[CatManTrue]

NU is a slam dunk to make the tournament if they win on Wednesday night. They could lose to Minnesota to close the season and whomever they would get in the quarters of the B1G tournament in that case and it wouldn’t matter. They’d still probably be an 8 seed.

I think we’re in if we lose out. We’ll probably be in the play-in.

Win one more game, even if in the BTT, and we’re sitting pretty

 

[Akeehn0912]

If we lose out we are not going to the tourney. That’s a four game losing streak. I think we need to win two more games to lock. Either both regular season games or one and one in the BTT, or we lose two regular season games and need to win 2 in the BTT. Win one more only and it will be close, but I think we may be out with a 1-3 finish. Hate to say it but we will get FSU’d if we don’t finish with some demonstration that we are tournament caliber after the injuries.

There is close to zero chance NU drops below a 10 seed.

 

[GatoLouco]

I am strangely calm about this. I just feel, regardless of what happens, this is a season to be proud of. We gave it all we had. It was fun to watch. Miss the tournament? Still damn proud of these cats.

 

[Baz=Heisman]

I am strangely calm about this. I just feel, regardless of what happens, this is a season to be proud of. We gave it all we had. It was fun to watch. Miss the tournament? Still damn proud of these cats.

Absolutely not lol. We have to finish the job and get into the tourney.

 

[olshin]

Absolutely not lol. We have to finish the job and get into the tourney.

You wouldn't be proud of them if they were decimated and lost the rest of their games, despite a strong effort??? I mean, I'd feel like they do any game they lose, disappointed about the result, but never questioning their effort.

Nicholson likely isn't coming back and I think we all probably know that deep down. The language yesterday seemed to indicate as much. That seemed more like a Lisfranc type of injury, and like with Ty - I'm really hoping the long-term prognosis is OK.

 

[TejasCat]

I hope the news my buddy just told me (through an allegedly solid source) is not true. I'll wait for Lou and/or Matt.

 

[Baz=Heisman]

I hope the news my buddy just told me (through an allegedly solid source) is not true. I'll wait for Lou and/or Matt.

So he’s terminal?

 

[ballerog711]

If NU is close, they should get jn. Good stories are good for rating the first weekend. They was they compete with starters lost and making the tourney back to back is a great story.

 

[jensberg]

If we lose out we are not going to the tourney. That’s a four game losing streak. I think we need to win two more games to lock. Either both regular season games or one and one in the BTT, or we lose two regular season games and need to win 2 in the BTT. Win one more only and it will be close, but I think we may be out with a 1-3 finish. Hate to say it but we will get FSU’d if we don’t finish with some demonstration that we are tournament caliber after the injuries.

We will definitely not go to the tournament if we lose for straight since the committee knows we're without two key starters Berry and Nicholson who has a broken foot, now.

 

[jensberg]

So he’s terminal?

Broken foot out for the rest of year

 

[RoseBowl2022]

Numbers are still holding steady: NET - 53; KenPom - 46; KPI - 34; BPI - 39; SOR - 29.

Strength of Record suffered the biggest drop to #29 (still very good, but it was #19 after beating Maryland). I really don't think our numbers would look pretty at all if we lost four straight.

I think the best case of the worst case would be: lose to MSU, beat Minnesota, lose in tournament quarterfinals to Wisconsin.

 

[DaCat]

I am strangely calm about this. I just feel, regardless of what happens, this is a season to be proud of. We gave it all we had. It was fun to watch. Miss the tournament? Still damn proud of these cats.

After how well we played this season, to miss out on the tournament would be highly disappointing. Not a reflection of the team, this will always be one of my favorite seasons and this team was a pleasure to watch. But this team deserves to make the tournament, and anything less would be bitter to swallow.

 

[Baz=Heisman]

After how well we played this season, to miss out on the tournament would be highly disappointing. Not a reflection of the team, this will always be one of my favorite seasons and this team was a pleasure to watch. But this team deserves to make the tournament, and anything less would be bitter to swallow.

Absolutely. We cannot miss the tournament. Give me a break with the moral victory BS. Look what Collins just said in his post-Iowa presser. He is not looking for excuses… like some of our fanbase apparently.

 

[Pete Purple]

Broken foot out for the rest of year

Respectfully, either show your cards, or fold.

 

[SimpsonElmwood]

Wake Forest losing to Georgia Tech at home helps. Kansas St. and Cincinnati not pulling off upsets on the road is good.

Seton Hall and St, John's won, but they were playing Georgetown and DePaul. B1G is lucky there are no bad teams like that.

I don't see a whole lot of teams lower on the bubble sneaking up.

 

[Catreporter]

Ole Miss losing at Georgia also softens the bubble as does Syracuse loss at Clemson.

 

[GatoLouco]

Dayton, can someone explain to me why they have been ranked for so long?

I am really not a margin of difference or efficiency guy. I am a W/L guy. I could not care if you get into shootouts or not, I care if you win, 100-99 or 40-39.

Dayton is a good team, I understand that. Holmes is All American talent.

But for my ignorant ass this is their resume:
1) Decent pre-season wins against a decent St. John's team, and almost decent Cincinnati and LSU.
2) Pre season losses to proper Northwestern and almighty Houston (they were never in the game).
3) All other pre-season was cupcakes
4) Third in a pitiful A10 league, with no chance of being 1st

I know we all love having beaten these dudes. But I am underwhelmed

 

[CappyNU]

Dayton, can someone explain to me why they have been ranked for so long?

I am really not a margin of difference or efficiency guy. I am a W/L guy. I could not care if you get into shootouts or not, I care if you win, 100-99 or 40-39.

Dayton is a good team, I understand that. Holmes is All American talent.

But for my ignorant ass this is their resume:
1) Decent pre-season wins against a decent St. John's team, and almost decent Cincinnati and LSU.
2) Pre season losses to proper Northwestern and almighty Houston (they were never in the game).
3) All other pre-season was cupcakes
4) Third in a pitiful A10 league, with no chance of being 1st

I know we all love having beaten these dudes. But I am underwhelmed

They likely shouldn't be ranked, but they do have 9 road/neutral wins, 7 of which are Quad 1/2, and no Quad 3/4 road/neutral losses, while going undefeated at home, granted 13 of 14 are Quad 3/4. Plus, I wouldn't call the A10 pitiful, they're the best mid-major league this year.

 

[GatoLouco]

They likely shouldn't be ranked, but they do have 9 road/neutral wins, 7 of which are Quad 1/2, and no Quad 3/4 road/neutral losses, while going undefeated at home, granted 13 of 14 are Quad 3/4. Plus, I wouldn't call the A10 pitiful, they're the best mid-major league this year.

If there was some way of having a conference fight to the death I would choose the Mountain West amongst mid majors and ahead of even the ACC or PAC12

 

[CappyNU]

If there was some way of having a conference fight to the death I would choose the Mountain West amongst mid majors and ahead of even the ACC or PAC12

Not in the NCAA tourney you wouldn't. The Mountain West has far and away the worst performance relative to seed of any conference in basketball. Think it's due to the altitude advantage that goes away come tourney time.

Tourney Stats, PASE (Performance Against Seed Expectations) and PAKE

 

[GatoLouco]

Not in the NCAA tourney you wouldn't. The Mountain West has far and away the worst performance relative to seed of any conference in basketball. Think it's due to the altitude advantage that goes away come tourney time.

Tourney Stats, PASE (Performance Against Seed Expectations) and PAKE

I don't dispute that, but you think, this year, the A10 is better than the Mountain West, where last year's runner up is not even top 3?

 

[CappyNU]

I don't dispute that, but you think, this year, the A10 is better than the Mountain West, where last year's runner up is not even top 3?

Oh, no definitely not, the Mountain West is way better than the A10, I just wasn't characterizing them as a mid-major.

 

[NTCAT]

Last night I tuned into SDSU UNLV and Nevada Boise St, First time really watching the mountain west this year. I was amazed at how slow and small the mountain west teams looked. If that is a 6 bid league, there is 0 circumstance in which NU should miss the tournament. Man the bubble must be weak