In the game plan thread I started, I argued that the Cats needed to really play bend don't break but use pressure strategically to create a turnover or two (not relying on pressure to stop the Bucks), and to open up the offense a little, starting by trying to spread the field horizontally and then attacking up the middle both by running and some deep throws to try to increase their chance of scoring. It would be a strategy to not get into a track meet with OSU, but if it were a track analogy, to try to make it a middle distance race where positioning might give the Cats a better chance to win.
A basic heuristic model of this is based on the starting betting line, with I assume is based on analytics. My paper had it as OSU -14 with an over/under of 60. This would mean that the expected score would be 42-28. Assuming each team has 14 possessions, that would mean the expected points per possession for OSU would be 3, and for the Cats 2. The strategy outlined above was aimed at slightly reducing the OSU points per possession, arguing that making them drive the field and then score from a compressed field redzone would yield fewer points per possession than attacking them with blitzes, increasing the big play that leads to more touchdowns and fewer field goals; on the offense side, it trades some time of possession for the chance of a few explosive plays that shorten drives but increase the probability of a touchdown. To make up the balance, you have to try to force a turnover or two advantage, which is iffy but necessary.
Given the current state of the Cats kicking game. with Collins kicking off, and the need for a turnover advantage, I would argue that the case for a surprise onsides kick or two is pretty clear. The way to evaluate this is to estimate the benefit of a successful kick multiplied by the probability of success versus the damage of an unsuccessful kick.
First of all, with Collins kicking deep, there are two really important considerations. The dominant one is that he is kicking relatively short, low kicks, which are demonstrably resulting in excellent field position for the receiving team, as well as creating the threat of breaking a long return due to the lack of height on his kicks. For argument sake, lets just assume the probable starting position after a deep kicks to the Bucks Saturday would be the 35. On an unsuccessful onside kick, the chance of a long return is almost 0, and the probable starting position is about the Cats' 45, a loss of 20 yards. A recovery by OSU does not change the number of possessions each team has, since they would have gotten the ball on the deep kick; it just raises the value of the that single possession by some unknown probable points scored, since the field is shorter. For argument sake, let's say it increases the probable score on that possession by a point from 3 to 4.
On the other side, if the Cats recover, they get the ball at about the same point, but also change the number of possessions, since one possession that the Bucks would have had now flips to the Cats. Hence the number of possessions 14 - 14 to 14.5-13.5. Since the field position is good, it also raises the value of that one possession since it is a relatively short field.
What is unknown to me (but I bet not unknown to the Cats and OSU coaching staff) is the probability of recovering an onsides kick that is not kicked in desperation against a "hands" team. According to our friend the internet, in the NFL the probability of recovering a surprise onside kick is 60%. Even assuming a less optimistic 50%, it is clear that there is a benefit to trying it at least once. Doing the calculation, while the current odds are for a 42-28 game, assuming a one point penalty on an unsuccessful kick and a 2.6 point reward for a successful kick, the expected score would compute as follows:
OSU=13*3 +.5*4+.5*0=41 where there would still the other 13 possessions at 3 points, and the 14th would either go to the Cats or result in a higher yield, that is 4 points rather than 3 and for the Cats:
NU= 14*2+.5*2.6+.5*0=29.3 where there would still the 14 possessions originally assumed, and the 14th OSU possession would have a fifty/fifty chance of going to the Cats at a better than average expected return. The expected final score would improve to 41-29.3 form 42-28, a 2.3 point gain.
The final thing I would say about this is, based on this, if the Cats did try it fairly early, it would force OSU to change its return scheme and reduce the chance that it would break a long one on one of Collins' relatively weak kicks.
The Cats' staff is pretty good at analytics, and I would be shocked if they have not gamed this out with much greater precision than what I calculated here. I would be we see an onsides kick by the Cats if the opportunity arises in the first half.
A basic heuristic model of this is based on the starting betting line, with I assume is based on analytics. My paper had it as OSU -14 with an over/under of 60. This would mean that the expected score would be 42-28. Assuming each team has 14 possessions, that would mean the expected points per possession for OSU would be 3, and for the Cats 2. The strategy outlined above was aimed at slightly reducing the OSU points per possession, arguing that making them drive the field and then score from a compressed field redzone would yield fewer points per possession than attacking them with blitzes, increasing the big play that leads to more touchdowns and fewer field goals; on the offense side, it trades some time of possession for the chance of a few explosive plays that shorten drives but increase the probability of a touchdown. To make up the balance, you have to try to force a turnover or two advantage, which is iffy but necessary.
Given the current state of the Cats kicking game. with Collins kicking off, and the need for a turnover advantage, I would argue that the case for a surprise onsides kick or two is pretty clear. The way to evaluate this is to estimate the benefit of a successful kick multiplied by the probability of success versus the damage of an unsuccessful kick.
First of all, with Collins kicking deep, there are two really important considerations. The dominant one is that he is kicking relatively short, low kicks, which are demonstrably resulting in excellent field position for the receiving team, as well as creating the threat of breaking a long return due to the lack of height on his kicks. For argument sake, lets just assume the probable starting position after a deep kicks to the Bucks Saturday would be the 35. On an unsuccessful onside kick, the chance of a long return is almost 0, and the probable starting position is about the Cats' 45, a loss of 20 yards. A recovery by OSU does not change the number of possessions each team has, since they would have gotten the ball on the deep kick; it just raises the value of the that single possession by some unknown probable points scored, since the field is shorter. For argument sake, let's say it increases the probable score on that possession by a point from 3 to 4.
On the other side, if the Cats recover, they get the ball at about the same point, but also change the number of possessions, since one possession that the Bucks would have had now flips to the Cats. Hence the number of possessions 14 - 14 to 14.5-13.5. Since the field position is good, it also raises the value of that one possession since it is a relatively short field.
What is unknown to me (but I bet not unknown to the Cats and OSU coaching staff) is the probability of recovering an onsides kick that is not kicked in desperation against a "hands" team. According to our friend the internet, in the NFL the probability of recovering a surprise onside kick is 60%. Even assuming a less optimistic 50%, it is clear that there is a benefit to trying it at least once. Doing the calculation, while the current odds are for a 42-28 game, assuming a one point penalty on an unsuccessful kick and a 2.6 point reward for a successful kick, the expected score would compute as follows:
OSU=13*3 +.5*4+.5*0=41 where there would still the other 13 possessions at 3 points, and the 14th would either go to the Cats or result in a higher yield, that is 4 points rather than 3 and for the Cats:
NU= 14*2+.5*2.6+.5*0=29.3 where there would still the 14 possessions originally assumed, and the 14th OSU possession would have a fifty/fifty chance of going to the Cats at a better than average expected return. The expected final score would improve to 41-29.3 form 42-28, a 2.3 point gain.
The final thing I would say about this is, based on this, if the Cats did try it fairly early, it would force OSU to change its return scheme and reduce the chance that it would break a long one on one of Collins' relatively weak kicks.
The Cats' staff is pretty good at analytics, and I would be shocked if they have not gamed this out with much greater precision than what I calculated here. I would be we see an onsides kick by the Cats if the opportunity arises in the first half.
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