+/- for the Prosecution of the Illini

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Its pretty much a given that The Ball don't lie.
Everybody knows this.
So the question was "Should Terrence Shannon be playing in this game?"
And The Ball spoke its truth 5 times as it leapt from Shannon's hands into the cleaner hands of a Northwestern player.
I hope for Shannon's sake that The Ball wasn't ruling on his guilt in his upcoming felony trial. Because The Ball spoke decisively last night.

Here are the numbers...

Player	Minutes	NU Pts	ILL Pts	Raw +/-	Player Adjust	Game +/-
Nicholson	34	68	58	+10	+5.84	+7.84
Barnhizer	44	94	91	+3	+3.45	+4.05
Preston	8	20	17	+3	+0.28	+0.88
Buie	42	88	85	+3	+0.04	+0.64
Clayton	3	7	3	+4	-0.53	+0.28
Berry	33	74	69	+5	-1.79	-0.79
Martinelli	20	40	50	-10	-1.29	-3.29
Langborg	41	89	82	+7	-6.00	-4.60

Nobody played badly. Some guys just played really well. Without Berry or Buie or Nicholson or Barnhizer we would have certainly been beaten.
But Nicholson gets the game ball, statistically speaking.

A few things to point out... We played better defense when Nicholson was at the 5, allowing 58 points in 34 minutes (1.7 ppm). With Preston at the 5 we scored 2.5 ppm, but allowed 2.125 ppm.
With Martinelli at center (the small ball lineup) we got outscored 7-2 in 2 minutes in the middle of the 2nd half.
Thankfully we didn't see that lineup again until there was a minute left and we had an 8 point lead (and Nicholson fouled out).
That lineup makes a lot of sense when its free throw time, but not when you're outsized at all 5 positions!

Luke Hunger didn't play one second. Not sure what happened there.

Jordan Clayton played 3 minutes and we won those segments 7-3. He didn't put up any stats, but he breaks the string of negative results. That feels like progress.

Lineup-wise, the starters (Nicholson/Barnhizer/Berry/Langborg/Buie) played 23 minutes together and outscored their opponents 49-41.
This has been a recent and significant departure for Coach Collins. The starters are playing more minutes as a unit than anytime in the past several seasons.
23 minutes against Illinois (4 minutes of OT), 17 minutes against Nebraska, 18 minutes against Maryland. Before that? 11, 7, 8, 6, 9, 14, 11, 6, 5, 9, 14, 10, 8, 12.

Last year the starters played 20% of the minutes over the last 15 games. Thats 8 minutes per game.
The starters played the first 4 minutes of each half... and that was about it. Almost drove me insane.
The 2nd most-used specific lineup played 6 minutes per game (and Verhoeven was the center).
Our best lineup (Nicholson/Barnhizer/Berry/Audige/Buie) played a miserly 5 minutes a game.

In the disappointing 2021-22 season, over the last 15 games, the starters (Nance/Beran/Roper/Audige/Buie) played 20% of the minutes.
The 2nd most active lineup was Young/Beran/Roper/Audige/Buie who played a total of 22 minutes as a unit over 15 games.

In the last year of Miller Kopp, the starters played 8 minutes per game as a unit. The #2 lineup played 3 minutes per game.

This past offseason, I heard Chris Collins say "You want your 5 best players on the floor."
I had never heard him say that before, and it surprised me, but I think it reflected a serious change of mindset.
I have argued ad nauseum "You want your best lineups on the floor."
It seems we've made a hard shift in that direction - and hopefully not because the bench is shorter.

Of course, it helps when guys don't get whistled for cheap fouls. The refs can have a major (detrimental) impact on things.
When they let the guys play, the competition is better, the games are just much, much better.
Last night's game showed how that works.

Congratulations to the NU players and coaches on a huge victory!

We can talk about how Collins is using Nicholson differently some other time.

 

[SmellyCat]

Thanks PWB. Martinelli's -10 sticks out like a sore thumb.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Thanks PWB. Martinelli's -10 sticks out like a sore thumb.

Its all the small ball lineup. The 4 other guys got dinged with that too. (Nicholson and Preston obviously didn't).

 

[Hungry Jack]

Another quietly dominant performance from Peter Sagan’s overgrown hairy love child.

Hunger’s moment will come.

 

[AdamOnFirst]

Its all the small ball lineup. The 4 other guys got dinged with that too. (Nicholson and Preston obviously didn't).

And I didn’t even think Martinelli played all that bad, though he didn’t have his highest impact game. Came in, did some hustle, grabbed a few boards, and scored a handful of highly efficient, change-of-pace look points.

 

[clarificationcat]

Its pretty much a given that The Ball don't lie.
Everybody knows this.
So the question was "Should Terrence Shannon be playing in this game?"
And The Ball spoke its truth 5 times as it leapt from Shannon's hands into the cleaner hands of a Northwestern player.
I hope for Shannon's sake that The Ball wasn't ruling on his guilt in his upcoming felony trial. Because The Ball spoke decisively last night.

Here are the numbers...

Player	Minutes	NU Pts	ILL Pts	Raw +/-	Player Adjust	Game +/-
Nicholson	34	68	58	+10	+5.84	+7.84
Barnhizer	44	94	91	+3	+3.45	+4.05
Preston	8	20	17	+3	+0.28	+0.88
Buie	42	88	85	+3	+0.04	+0.64
Clayton	3	7	3	+4	-0.53	+0.28
Berry	33	74	69	+5	-1.79	-0.79
Martinelli	20	40	50	-10	-1.29	-3.29
Langborg	41	89	82	+7	-6.00	-4.60

Nobody played badly. Some guys just played really well. Without Berry or Buie or Nicholson or Barnhizer we would have certainly been beaten.
But Nicholson gets the game ball, statistically speaking.

A few things to point out... We played better defense when Nicholson was at the 5, allowing 58 points in 34 minutes (1.7 ppm). With Preston at the 5 we scored 2.5 ppm, but allowed 2.125 ppm.
With Martinelli at center (the small ball lineup) we got outscored 7-2 in 2 minutes in the middle of the 2nd half.
Thankfully we didn't see that lineup again until there was a minute left and we had an 8 point lead (and Nicholson fouled out).
That lineup makes a lot of sense when its free throw time, but not when you're outsized at all 5 positions!

Luke Hunger didn't play one second. Not sure what happened there.

Jordan Clayton played 3 minutes and we won those segments 7-3. He didn't put up any stats, but he breaks the string of negative results. That feels like progress.

Lineup-wise, the starters (Nicholson/Barnhizer/Berry/Langborg/Buie) played 23 minutes together and outscored their opponents 49-41.
This has been a recent and significant departure for Coach Collins. The starters are playing more minutes as a unit than anytime in the past several seasons.
23 minutes against Illinois (4 minutes of OT), 17 minutes against Nebraska, 18 minutes against Maryland. Before that? 11, 7, 8, 6, 9, 14, 11, 6, 5, 9, 14, 10, 8, 12.

Last year the starters played 20% of the minutes over the last 15 games. Thats 8 minutes per game.
The starters played the first 4 minutes of each half... and that was about it. Almost drove me insane.
The 2nd most-used specific lineup played 6 minutes per game (and Verhoeven was the center).
Our best lineup (Nicholson/Barnhizer/Berry/Audige/Buie) played a miserly 5 minutes a game.

In the disappointing 2021-22 season, over the last 15 games, the starters (Nance/Beran/Roper/Audige/Buie) played 20% of the minutes.
The 2nd most active lineup was Young/Beran/Roper/Audige/Buie who played a total of 22 minutes as a unit over 15 games.

In the last year of Miller Kopp, the starters played 8 minutes per game as a unit. The #2 lineup played 3 minutes per game.

This past offseason, I heard Chris Collins say "You want your 5 best players on the floor."
I had never heard him say that before, and it surprised me, but I think it reflected a serious change of mindset.
I have argued ad nauseum "You want your best lineups on the floor."
It seems we've made a hard shift in that direction - and hopefully not because the bench is shorter.

Of course, it helps when guys don't get whistled for cheap fouls. The refs can have a major (detrimental) impact on things.
When they let the guys play, the competition is better, the games are just much, much better.
Last night's game showed how that works.

Congratulations to the NU players and coaches on a huge victory!

We can talk about how Collins is using Nicholson differently some other time.

Understand your point but it helps when you don’t really have much of a bench. If we had Young, Berry, Williams and Greer on the bench, our starters would likely play less. If that team had this year’s Buie, they absolutely would have made the tournament.

 

[EagerFan]

Watching the game, Clayton just got lucky because he didn't play particularly well and looked like the game was moving way too fast for him on defense. I have hope for his future, but he didn't look ready for the game.

 

[Catreporter]

I liked Clayton's dunk in the pregame warmups. He's got some hops. If you look around the BIG, not many Freshmen are playing. Especially with the COVID year, this is a very veteran league.

 

[ballerog711]

Clayton and Preston were on the floor at the end of the half whe. Nu went in the 7-0 run.

Clayton got switched into Hawkins during one stretch and kept him from getting the ball and boxed him out. He did a good job when he was backed down, k ocked the shooter off balance.

Preston had the nice offensive rebound and went old school with the hook shot.

If that was luck, I'll take it.

 

[GatoLouco]

Martinelli seemed, to me, like he was hella important in the first half to not allow the undies to open a 10 pt lead. In the 2nd, he was just caught in a lineup that took being handicapped athletically to a different level.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Martinelli seemed, to me, like he was hella important in the first half to not allow the undies to open a 10 pt lead. In the 2nd, he was just caught in a lineup that was took being handicapped athletically to a different level.

when Nicholson and Barnhizer were out there with Martinelli, we played to a 17-17 draw over 9.5 minutes.

The whole team played capable Big Ten basketball. It was a high level game. I am confident that we have 6 guys who are "average" or significantly better for the league. Martinelli and Langborg are probably our 5th and 6th best players, if Nicholson plays like he has the last several games.

I'd still like to see Hunger at the 4 with Preston!

 

[Hungry Jack]

Hunger remains a big defensive liability. Would like to see him in 2-3 minute doses several times a game.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Its all the small ball lineup. The 4 other guys got dinged with that too. (Nicholson and Preston obviously didn't).

Wasn’t this poor rating primarily a result of that second half Illini run with the flagrant fouls call. Gave Illini a 6 or 7 point run.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Its pretty much a given that The Ball don't lie.
Everybody knows this.
So the question was "Should Terrence Shannon be playing in this game?"
And The Ball spoke its truth 5 times as it leapt from Shannon's hands into the cleaner hands of a Northwestern player.
I hope for Shannon's sake that The Ball wasn't ruling on his guilt in his upcoming felony trial. Because The Ball spoke decisively last night.

Here are the numbers...

Player	Minutes	NU Pts	ILL Pts	Raw +/-	Player Adjust	Game +/-
Nicholson	34	68	58	+10	+5.84	+7.84
Barnhizer	44	94	91	+3	+3.45	+4.05
Preston	8	20	17	+3	+0.28	+0.88
Buie	42	88	85	+3	+0.04	+0.64
Clayton	3	7	3	+4	-0.53	+0.28
Berry	33	74	69	+5	-1.79	-0.79
Martinelli	20	40	50	-10	-1.29	-3.29
Langborg	41	89	82	+7	-6.00	-4.60

Nobody played badly. Some guys just played really well. Without Berry or Buie or Nicholson or Barnhizer we would have certainly been beaten.
But Nicholson gets the game ball, statistically speaking.

A few things to point out... We played better defense when Nicholson was at the 5, allowing 58 points in 34 minutes (1.7 ppm). With Preston at the 5 we scored 2.5 ppm, but allowed 2.125 ppm.
With Martinelli at center (the small ball lineup) we got outscored 7-2 in 2 minutes in the middle of the 2nd half.
Thankfully we didn't see that lineup again until there was a minute left and we had an 8 point lead (and Nicholson fouled out).
That lineup makes a lot of sense when its free throw time, but not when you're outsized at all 5 positions!

Luke Hunger didn't play one second. Not sure what happened there.

Jordan Clayton played 3 minutes and we won those segments 7-3. He didn't put up any stats, but he breaks the string of negative results. That feels like progress.

Lineup-wise, the starters (Nicholson/Barnhizer/Berry/Langborg/Buie) played 23 minutes together and outscored their opponents 49-41.
This has been a recent and significant departure for Coach Collins. The starters are playing more minutes as a unit than anytime in the past several seasons.
23 minutes against Illinois (4 minutes of OT), 17 minutes against Nebraska, 18 minutes against Maryland. Before that? 11, 7, 8, 6, 9, 14, 11, 6, 5, 9, 14, 10, 8, 12.

Last year the starters played 20% of the minutes over the last 15 games. Thats 8 minutes per game.
The starters played the first 4 minutes of each half... and that was about it. Almost drove me insane.
The 2nd most-used specific lineup played 6 minutes per game (and Verhoeven was the center).
Our best lineup (Nicholson/Barnhizer/Berry/Audige/Buie) played a miserly 5 minutes a game.

In the disappointing 2021-22 season, over the last 15 games, the starters (Nance/Beran/Roper/Audige/Buie) played 20% of the minutes.
The 2nd most active lineup was Young/Beran/Roper/Audige/Buie who played a total of 22 minutes as a unit over 15 games.

In the last year of Miller Kopp, the starters played 8 minutes per game as a unit. The #2 lineup played 3 minutes per game.

This past offseason, I heard Chris Collins say "You want your 5 best players on the floor."
I had never heard him say that before, and it surprised me, but I think it reflected a serious change of mindset.
I have argued ad nauseum "You want your best lineups on the floor."
It seems we've made a hard shift in that direction - and hopefully not because the bench is shorter.

Of course, it helps when guys don't get whistled for cheap fouls. The refs can have a major (detrimental) impact on things.
When they let the guys play, the competition is better, the games are just much, much better.
Last night's game showed how that works.

Congratulations to the NU players and coaches on a huge victory!

We can talk about how Collins is using Nicholson differently some other time.

Here’s the thing PWB, if you are going to get rest for your starters you don’t want 3 or even 2 reserves in at the same time. This of course assumes we only really play 7-8 players. To me, the number of minutes the starters play together is far less important to when these starters are on the floor together. The end of the game is the obvious time.

It’s really difficult to get them 20 minutes together. You could start 5 minutes out of the gate with starters. Then give each starter a 2 minute blow( wipes out next 10 minutes of half). Put starters in next 5 minutes. Repeat in second half and presto you have 20 minutes. IMO, this would wear your starters out and would be unrealistic due to foul trouble, off nights, and quick unnecessary line up changes when an alternative line up is working. Damn near impossible to consistently increase minutes together as a unit.

When he says get the best players on the floor, I believe that to be in reference to the most playing time.

 

[AdamOnFirst]

Here’s the thing PWB, if you are going to get rest for your starters you don’t want 3 or even 2 reserves in at the same time. This of course assumes we only really play 7-8 players. To me, the number of minutes the starters play together is far less important to when these starters are on the floor together. The end of the game is the obvious time.

It’s really difficult to get them 20 minutes together. You could start 5 minutes out of the gate with starters. Then give each starter a 2 minute blow( wipes out next 10 minutes of half). Put starters in next 5 minutes. Repeat in second half and presto you have 20 minutes. IMO, this would wear your starters out and would be unrealistic due to foul trouble, off nights, and quick unnecessary line up changes when an alternative line up is working. Damn near impossible to consistently increase minutes together as a unit.

When he says get the best players on the floor, I believe that to be in reference to the most playing time.

Especially given the rotation of this team. To give the starters more time together, you have to rest more of them together. Since Martinelli (and maybe increasingly Clayton) is the only guy able to rotate in for four spots, you have no choice but to spend 15-20 minutes a game just rolling through rest for 1-4.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Wasn’t this poor rating primarily a result of that second half Illini run with the flagrant fouls call. Gave Illini a 6 or 7 point run.

Yes, the small ball lineup was out there when Shannon tried to drive from 3 point arc to dunk it. (No rim protection).
Berry decided to pay him back for the near concussion when Shannon ran over him earlier in the game.

Illinois made 2 free throws, got the ball back on the flagrant, missed a shot, got the rebound, got fouled and made 2 more free throws.

 

[AdamOnFirst]

Yes, the small ball lineup was out there when Shannon tried to drive from 3 point arc to dunk it. (No rim protection).
Berry decided to pay him back for the near concussion when Shannon ran over him earlier in the game.

Illinois made 2 free throws, got the ball back on the flagrant, missed a shot, got the rebound, got fouled and made 2 more free throws.

Oh, so, really, no relation whatsoever to the lineup that happened to be out there at the time.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Here’s the thing PWB, if you are going to get rest for your starters you don’t want 3 or even 2 reserves in at the same time. This of course assumes we only really play 7-8 players. To me, the number of minutes the starters play together is far less important to when these starters are on the floor together. The end of the game is the obvious time.

It’s really difficult to get them 20 minutes together. You could start 5 minutes out of the gate with starters. Then give each starter a 2 minute blow( wipes out next 10 minutes of half). Put starters in next 5 minutes. Repeat in second half and presto you have 20 minutes. IMO, this would wear your starters out and would be unrealistic due to foul trouble, off nights, and quick unnecessary line up changes when an alternative line up is working. Damn near impossible to consistently increase minutes together as a unit.

When he says get the best players on the floor, I believe that to be in reference to the most playing time.

Well thats what I'm saying! I acknowledge that guys have to get rest - at least every now and then.
As you point out, you can't afford to automatically lose 2-3 points by playing 3 reserves together.
It helps when you have 6 quality players. Collins has restricted his substitutions this year. In the past, I think we would have seen Clayton and Mullins in and out of the game for short stints. Now he uses Martinelli to get rest for all 4 of the non-centers.

I'm just arguing (as always) that you want to play lineups that aren't likely to lose ground in the game.
And I think Collins has made a clear shift in that direction. My hope is that a frontcourt of Preston with Hunger could allow Nicholson to rest and Martinelli or Barnhizer to rest without losing ground in the game. Its a hope, not a prediction! That would solidify our rotation into something beautiful.

In the Illinois game, Collins stuck with the starters for 11 minutes straight - to close out the 2nd half and then 4 minutes of overtime. They played great. 30-18 over those 11 minutes. Martinelli was available - Collins just went with the starters. It worked.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Oh, so, really, no relation whatsoever to the lineup that happened to be out there at the time.

If you ignore Shannon trying to dunk on the whole team and the offensive rebounds, yes.
There's always a reason things happen the way they do.
Thats actually the whole point of +/-.

 

[AdamOnFirst]

If you ignore Shannon trying to dunk on the whole team and the offensive rebounds, yes.

We got smoked on the offensive glass utterly all night with every rotation, so that’s what it is, and Berry DID at least stop Shannon from dunking. It’s the flagrant that made the difference.

The reality is any +\-statistics from a couple minutes of one game, or really any one game, are going to be utterly defeated by sample size. Guy comes in and the opponents hit a couple decent three looks back to back rather than missing them and the numbers look radically different without signifying much. The valuable part of this analysis and discussion is our ability over the course of the year to gain insights into what rotations are most effective. This year, the answer is sort of easy with the small rotation: just play the starters, especially Boo, MN, Bb, and Ty, as much as you can

 

[SmellyCat]

Wasn’t this poor rating primarily a result of that second half Illini run with the flagrant fouls call. Gave Illini a 6 or 7 point run.

May be true, but that only accounts for the two free throws during the 7-0 run that turned a 60-57 lead into a 64-60 deficit. Martinelli (and others on the floor) are still responsible for those other five points). Fortunately Boo hit that big three moments later to make it 64-63.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

We got smoked on the offensive glass utterly all night with every rotation, so that’s what it is, and Berry DID at least stop Shannon from dunking. It’s the flagrant that made the difference.

The reality is any +\-statistics from a couple minutes of one game, or really any one game, are going to be utterly defeated by sample size. Guy comes in and the opponents hit a couple decent three looks back to back rather than missing them and the numbers look radically different without signifying much. The valuable part of this analysis and discussion is our ability over the course of the year to gain insights into what rotations are most effective. This year, the answer is sort of easy with the small rotation: just play the starters, especially Boo, MN, Bb, and Ty, as much as you can

I agree about the value of the +/- being in a larger sample size.

But for a guy like Clayton, it actually has value in the small segments as well. We lost ground almost every time he played. That speaks directly to "not knowing what to do" or "not being able to execute what the other guys are executing."

On a game basis, I'm pretty happy with how the numbers point out who played well and who didn't... and I like how the lineup analysis points out obvious "chemistry issues." But sure, there is variability game to game - plenty of it.

 

[AdamOnFirst]

I agree about the value of the +/- being in a larger sample size.

But for a guy like Clayton, it actually has value in the small segments as well. We lost ground almost every time he played. That speaks directly to "not knowing what to do" or "not being able to execute what the other guys are executing."

On a game basis, I'm pretty happy with how the numbers point out who played well and who didn't... and I like how the lineup analysis points out obvious "chemistry issues." But sure, there is variability game to game - plenty of it.

I would argue it doesn’t speak for Clayton at all, it speaks to him playing usually when Boo isn’t on the floor. Obviously the team is drastically worse without Boo and Clayton is far worse than Boo.

 

[SmellyCat]

I would argue it doesn’t speak for Clayton at all, it speaks to him playing usually when Boo isn’t on the floor. Obviously the team is drastically worse without Boo and Clayton is far worse than Boo.

Yep. Going from your team leader to arguably your eighth- or ninth-best player is going to have SOME effect. Every time Boo comes out, I look at the score and mentally think, "ok, let's not lose too much ground during this break." It's not that I don't think Clayton is any good...it's just that he's not Boo.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

The point is that it didn't work at all. The numbers showed that very clearly.

So Collins gave up on it and found a less problematic approach, using Martinelli as the 4th guy and having Langborg, Berry and Barnhizer handling the ball.

 

[ballerog711]

Clayton and Boo were in together against Illinois. Just happened to see the replay

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Clayton and Boo were in together against Illinois. Just happened to see the replay

That is definitely true. Clayton didn't sub for Buie.

 

[ballerog711]

It is funny Collins will rotate the guards meaning playing anything from 1 through 3 I even remember a few where Clayton played the point and Boo played the wing.

But the 5 and 4., that is your role only. Martenelli might slide to the 5 when forced, but I don't think he thinks of trying Hunger at the 4

 

[EagerFan]

Hunger does not have the speed, agility, or hops to match up against most of the 4s in the B1G. He could probably get there with a lot of work, but I don't think that's where they are aiming him.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

It is funny Collins will rotate the guards meaning playing anything from 1 through 3 I even remember a few where Clayton played the point and Boo played the wing.

But the 5 and 4., that is your role only. Martenelli might slide to the 5 when forced, but I don't think he thinks of trying Hunger at the 4

Barnhizer is essentially making that experiment a no-go.

The thing is, if any of the four starters get hurt, he's going to have to play Clayton a lot or play Hunger at the 4.

 

[Secho99]

Here’s the thing PWB, if you are going to get rest for your starters you don’t want 3 or even 2 reserves in at the same time. This of course assumes we only really play 7-8 players. To me, the number of minutes the starters play together is far less important to when these starters are on the floor together. The end of the game is the obvious time.

I knew our bench didn’t play much, but didn’t realize how little until I looked it up. We’re ranked 342 of 362 in bench minutes. The only “prominent” teams with fewer bench minutes are Gonzaga, Kansas, Creighton and Michigan.

 

[EagerFan]

For a period, our bench minutes were also skewed by starting Hunger and then bringing Matt off the bench for 30 minutes of play time.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

May be true, but that only accounts for the two free throws during the 7-0 run that turned a 60-57 lead into a 64-60 deficit. Martinelli (and others on the floor) are still responsible for those other five points). Fortunately Boo hit that big three moments later to make it 64-63.

2 free throws and an extra possession.

 

[SmellyCat]

Wait...I thought it was the tech free throws and then the two for the foul, the second of which we could rebound. Did I miss that? Of course, you could be referring to the "extra possession" they got from an offensive board, which...you know...happened a lot on Wednesday.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Wait...I thought it was the tech free throws and then the two for the foul, the second of which we could rebound. Did I miss that? Of course, you could be referring to the "extra possession" they got from an offensive board, which...you know...happened a lot on Wednesday.

They got the ball after the free throws

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

They got the ball after the free throws

the two free throws were part of regular basketball.
they got an extra possession.

 

[SmellyCat]

the two free throws were part of regular basketball.
they got an extra possession.

Right...the extra possession, but the two free throws were going to happen anyway if it wasn't flagrant (I guess they're "easier" if no one is there on the line, but I'd like to see a study of that). So looking at the play-by-play, Berry fouled Shannon. Rather than two "regular" free throws, he got two free throws with no one on the line and Illinois got the ball. That to me is only one extra possession, rather than two. Whatever, maybe it's just semantics. We're probably saying the same thing. Carry on.

 

[IGNORE2]

Right...the extra possession, but the two free throws were going to happen anyway if it wasn't flagrant (I guess they're "easier" if no one is there on the line, but I'd like to see a study of that). So looking at the play-by-play, Berry fouled Shannon. Rather than two "regular" free throws, he got two free throws with no one on the line and Illinois got the ball. That to me is only one extra possession, rather than two. Whatever, maybe it's just semantics. We're probably saying the same thing. Carry on.

Back in my day, you raised your arms and for weaker FTers, seemed to distract. They took that away. Game always getting softer. In my day we boxed out and swung elbows with the rebound.

 

[ballerog711]

+/- is a nice stat, but still have to watch the game and can't say players don't know what they are doing, etc..

Great example is the Preston offensive rebound, he beat his man, got the rebound and got fouled. He made one foul shot. All 5 players on Illinois got a -1 In that instance, but it was only one players fault. They other guys just happened to be there.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

+/- is a nice stat, but still have to watch the game and can't say players don't know what they are doing, etc..

Great example is the Preston offensive rebound, he beat his man, got the rebound and got fouled. He made one foul shot. All 5 players on Illinois got a -1 In that instance, but it was only one players fault. They other guys just happened to be there.

Sure. I can only use the recorded stats as inputs. There are a ton of hustle plays that get credited to the team. Guys make great passes and the shooter blows a layup. Guy pressures an opponent who throws a pass to an opposing defender ,who gets full credit for a steal.

Its a team sport - but over time it becomes clear what works and what doesn't.