Help needed from Bracketologists
- Thread starter NUCat320
- Start date
Just last year, Virginia Tech (#50), Seton Hall (#51), USC (#52), and Providence (#60) all made the Dance as at- large teams.
That same year, VCU got an at-large bid despite being ranked #84 in KenPom going into the tournament and made the Final Four.
We have to finish 12-6 in the Big. Just not going to do it this year. Last year appears as an exception now.
NIT hopefully and 10-8 big.
No depth. Rap was a bust and when anyone sits out (Currently Law) we get crushed. Gaines is a C level player and offers only hustle as a poor man sanjay.
Falzon throws up bricks. Skelly is only a fill in. Brown is pretty good but Collins needed a goat so Brown barely plays.
10-8 in the big but thats pretty purple hopeful.
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We have had some tough luck. Law has shown that he can be a difference maker. I think 12-6 is possible. I think we play MSU twice and I'd say we lose twice. Hard to find 4 more losses to knock us out. I don't think we play Purdue again but if we play them at AS then I think we will win. I think we onlyplay Minny at AS and should win. Most every other BT team is trying to find their way. Our experience and talent should overcome most other teams. Let's wait another month before making NIT predictions because I think our players have something to say about that.
Turk, we have zero deth. Skelly and Gaines are getting exploited. Falzon is a complete disaster and shoots like Bernie. Rap is a total bust with tough luck.
1. Rap is hurt and even if he wasn't waaaaaay to early to call him a bust.
2. Gaines is a frosh with solid D and gets to the basket pretty well just needs to figure out he can't just rise above people like he did in high school. Just get a little creative while finishing. Gaines is not a C level player whatsoever.
3. Falzon is streaky at 3 which is disappointing because of expectations of him. His is much improved at defense from his frosh year. I'd say he is average to slightly below average at defense and a solid rebounder.
4. Skelly is a great player the only thing limiting him is stupid fouls. He unbelievably consistent from 3. Hustles like crazy. Now is limiting his turnovers by playling within himself compared to earlier this year. He's not trying to do too much. This kid is good. Just needs to stay out of foul trouble. Much more than a fill in.
5. Yes brown is good. Tries to do too much at times but solid player. I'd like to see him get more min but he has to limit some dumb plays.
Edit for 6. Also Ash is a solid defender a little slower. Good athlete with an improving jump shot as he gains confidence he's been slowly improving all season.
All in all this team is underperforming. I can't tell you why. They are talented enough when healthy to compete with anyone we have played. OU just was crazy hot and that guard was not only a great player but on fire. We also lacked our best answer for him due to a concussion. So R-E-L-A-X.
Watch some basketball learn a little and don't be so negative.
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Good post, Holland. I suspect most of us would agree with much of what you say here. Just can't afford to lay too many eggs from here on out, and a signature win or two would be huge. Certainly doable, but it's time to buckle down and git 'er done.
There is definitely 12 wins on the schedule in Big Ten play, but we are gonna have to win almost every close game. No doubt we will throw up a few stinkers, very little margin. I’m not as confident as some.
I can agree with almost everything you said, however 2 exceptions. Skelly is not a great player. Gaines can get to the basket but 90% of the time he apparently lacks the spring needed to get to the rim without a rejection. A poor man sanjay at this point.
But the bottom line is that we really arent playing good team ball, with the talent we have, and our bench cant be relied upon.
I do plan on attending most of our remaining games on my commute from the loop but AS is a big cold barn and isnt doing us any favors.
Name them.
I've got:
Illinois
Nebraska
Minnesota
@Indiana
PSU
@Wisconsin
Wisconsin
@Iowa
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^^^This^^^
We are worried about beating Brown, and with plenty reason. Looking at the Big schedule, ill pencil in a win at indiana, maybe we upset a tough psu team, we beat rutgers and wisconsin, even though Wisconsin has our number.. And we are always good for an upset (michigan or osu??)
For sure. Agree 100 percent and I didn't mention Jordan Ash once in this thread. Lol
@Rutgers is going to be a tough game. They are playing much tougher this season and beat a ranked Seton Hall in the RAC.
Alright I'll concede on Skelly he's a great role player and very underrated. And Gaines doesn't lack the spring he can jump. He lacks the being comfortable finishing with guys around his athletism. I've probs ranted what I thought of Sanjay way to much on this board but him and Gaines are different players. We do not have anyone that reflects Sanjay currently. He was a very savy player and was always in position offensively and defensively. Gaines isn't always is position because well he is not quite as comfortable in the offense as everyone else is because Gaines is new to it. Wait till next year on this kid.
Edit for bottom line
This isn't an argument or reply to the post above
This team is talented enough to make the tourney. It is more talented than last year. Bmac is just in a shooting slump. Lindsey isn't as bad of a defender as the board thinks he is, but Lindsey just wasn't hitting against OU. That's okay. When law comes back they just gotta play to 90% of their potential and we will take down all but the top 5 B1G teams. Play at 100% and we can beat any given team on any given night with this squad.
Even msu?
Falzon is a big missing key. Just because he is a sharpshooter doesnt mean he is a sharpshooter. But if he ever is more consistent then that brings an element that can beat msu.
Falzon is solid when he is on. Falzon/ Skelly/ Scottie/Gaines will be fighting for minutes depending on who has the hot hand! Mac/ Brown/ and Ash will also be doing the same! The only sure starters are Law and Pardon,imho.
If we fire at a 100% yes. I haven't seen us close to 100% yet, and I wouldn't put money on us doing that against MSU.
Sure, anything over 36% on Massey Ratings to me is a winnable game. Again, I don't think we will win them all, we have to win just about every close game. Plus I think we will lose a gimme but pull an upset.
For the record, i think we go 10-8 in the Big Ten and don't make the tourney
Illinois (won)
Nebraska (71%)
Minnesota (54%)
@Indiana (47%)
Ohio St (55%)
PSU (59%)
@Wisconsin (36%)
Michigan (42%)
@Rutgers (49%)
Maryland (49%)
Wisconsin (62%)
@Iowa (42%)
Ran the RPI Forecast Wizard at wins for >=48% and losses for <48% to end up at 11-7. Projected RPI was 55 entering B1G tourney. 11-7 will be a coinflip to get in.
Assuming that scenario plays out, we'll need two wins in Madison Square Garden. Doable? Yes. A gimme? Not by any stretch of the imagination.
Sign me up, my man. It'd be a beautiful thing. As a practical matter, though, I don't wanna arrive in New York needing to win the thing in order to dance.
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