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Big Ten performances so far...

PurpleWhiteBoy

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Feb 25, 2021
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Since most teams have played 7 to 9 games at this point, it seems reasonable to look at how they've been doing and where NU stands...
I'm listing the teams ratings using KenPom, Bart Torvik, Evan Miya and my own proxy for Sagarin, who stopped publishing his NCAAM ratings when USA Today stopped paying him.
The Torvik200 (on the far right) uses only games where the opponent is ranked in Torvik's top 200, ignoring the cupcakes.

TeamRecordKenPomTorvikMiyaPWB SagarinTorvik200
Purdue8-121232
Wisconsin7-21121192118
Illinois7-11429131611
Ohio State8-1232621299
Michigan State4-42918324191
Iowa5-33953382878
Northwestern6-15042594227
Michigan4-55455466599
Indiana7-16554497843
Nebraska7-26644837651
Rutgers5-378767785192
Maryland5-4747370134253
Minnesota6-31001039380140
Penn State4-5122129102118133

I am using data downloaded for free from Bart Torvik's website. That guy is providing a real service to anyone interested in statistical analysis of college basketball.

I'd say the conference is not looking too good so far. Against Torvik's top 200 teams, the conference record is 30-35.
If you remove the 9 conference games, the Big Ten is 21-26 against the Top 200. That is not good.

Things can change, of course. Izzo has a lot of highly-regarded freshmen to work with. Indiana is playing better and should be a tournament team.
Purdue still holds the top spot.
Wisconsin, Illinois and Ohio State look to be pretty good. NU and the Hoosiers probably fit with those teams.
The rest will have to improve to make the NCAA field.
 
Thanks PWB. I have been looking at Erik Haslam's ratings too. I have no idea if he has a good system or not, but I like free stuff that has full schedules of teams and predicts each game in a way that's easy to process. His ratings for the Big Ten as of today:

Purdue - 1
Wisconsin - 15
Ohio State - 22
Illinois - 23
Michigan State - 28
NORTHWESTERN - 47
Iowa - 55
Michigan - 61
Rutgers - 76
Indiana - 80
Nebraska - 81
Minnesota - 102
Penn State - 109
Maryland - 124
 
Since most teams have played 7 to 9 games at this point, it seems reasonable to look at how they've been doing and where NU stands...
I'm listing the teams ratings using KenPom, Bart Torvik, Evan Miya and my own proxy for Sagarin, who stopped publishing his NCAAM ratings when USA Today stopped paying him.
The Torvik200 (on the far right) uses only games where the opponent is ranked in Torvik's top 200, ignoring the cupcakes.

TeamRecordKenPomTorvikMiyaPWB SagarinTorvik200
Purdue8-121232
Wisconsin7-21121192118
Illinois7-11429131611
Ohio State8-1232621299
Michigan State4-42918324191
Iowa5-33953382878
Northwestern6-15042594227
Michigan4-55455466599
Indiana7-16554497843
Nebraska7-26644837651
Rutgers5-378767785192
Maryland5-4747370134253
Minnesota6-31001039380140
Penn State4-5122129102118133

I am using data downloaded for free from Bart Torvik's website. That guy is providing a real service to anyone interested in statistical analysis of college basketball.

I'd say the conference is not looking too good so far. Against Torvik's top 200 teams, the conference record is 30-35.
If you remove the 9 conference games, the Big Ten is 21-26 against the Top 200. That is not good.

Things can change, of course. Izzo has a lot of highly-regarded freshmen to work with. Indiana is playing better and should be a tournament team.
Purdue still holds the top spot.
Wisconsin, Illinois and Ohio State look to be pretty good. NU and the Hoosiers probably fit with those teams.
The rest will have to improve to make the NCAA field.

Watching the early Big Ten teams, the only inspiring games I have seen were Illinois vs FAU and NU vs Purdue. Watching Minnesota and Nebraska last night I wanted to gouge my eyes out. I know Purdue is the big dog but I just don't favor teams consisting of King Kong and the seven dwarves. History tells us while winning a whole lot of games that makeup doesn't work come tournament time. The Big Ten does indeed seem weak. I guess institutional size and wealth isn't a requirement to field a very good team, hence lots of competition.
 
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Watching the early Big Ten teams, the only inspiring games I have seen were Illinois vs FAU and NU vs Purdue. Watching Minnesota and Nebraska last night I wanted to gouge my eyes out. I know Purdue is the big dog but I just don't favor teams consisting of King Kong and the seven dwarves. History tells us while winning a whole lot of games that makeup doesn't work come tournament time. The Big Ten does indeed seem weak. I guess institutional size and wealth isn't a requirement to field a very good team, hence lots of competition.
Mostly agree, but Wisconsin looked pretty good against a strong Marquette team too.

Illinois is probably the best team I've seen so far, but I'll admit I haven't watched much of any of these teams against other decent teams. There's no reason NU can't crash the Big Ten party again this year.
 
Thanks PWB. I have been looking at Erik Haslam's ratings too. I have no idea if he has a good system or not, but I like free stuff that has full schedules of teams and predicts each game in a way that's easy to process. His ratings for the Big Ten as of today:

Purdue - 1
Wisconsin - 15
Ohio State - 22
Illinois - 23
Michigan State - 28
NORTHWESTERN - 47
Iowa - 55
Michigan - 61
Rutgers - 76
Indiana - 80
Nebraska - 81
Minnesota - 102
Penn State - 109
Maryland - 124
Can’t really take this one seriously with MSU at 28. There wins are over butler, Georgia southern, Alcorn st and some other cupcake.
 
Can’t really take this one seriously with MSU at 28. There wins are over butler, Georgia southern, Alcorn st and some other cupcake.
KenPom had MSU at #29. I don't get it, but I do know that people take his ratings very seriously.

Thats why I find the Torvik ratings filtered to games against the Top 100 or Top 200 to be more indicative of future Big Ten success. (and a bit of a wakeup call).
 
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Why do you have a special version of Sagarin and what is it?
Long ago I made an effort to re-create Sagarin's numbers.
His approach is or was very straightforward, so it was not difficult.
I always liked it for its simplicity even though it was very vulnerable to over-rating teams that blew out weak opponents (especially in football).
He fell out of favor, got dropped by USA Today and isn't updating his website for basketball.

Anyhow, I used the same general approach, made some improvements and can calculate a (somewhat better) version of his numbers.

Essentially I weight games between reasonably-matched teams much more heavily than mismatches. Unless the heavy underdog wins. A few other adjustments for games that go into overtime. Tweaks here and there. Ongoing. Recent games will be weighted more than games at start of season... (Sagarin had that as one of his versions).
 
Illinois is Final Four quality, according to their fans. What am I missing???
That’s delusional. Lack of PG will be the Achilles heel of the team. I think the floor of this team is probably another top 4 season in the big ten, but the ceiling is like 2nd place in conference and maybe sweet 16 if they get a good draw.
 
It's Purdue and whatever else. I'm interested to see how Illinois and Wisconsin evolve. I think Wisconsin has something figured out that they didn't have last year.

I'm hoping NU can be part of the next two or three teams. Being in that group with OSU and MSU would be a nice season.

I'm also wondering when the NCAA committee starts to consider past performances for bids to B10 teams. One of these days they're not going to allow 8 or 9 teams for a conference that performs so consistently average.
 
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It's Purdue and whatever else. I'm interested to see how Illinois and Wisconsin evolve. I think Wisconsin has something figured out that they didn't have last year.

I'm hoping NU can be part of the next two or three teams. Being in that group with OSU and MSU would be a nice season.

I'm also wondering when the NCAA committee starts to consider past performances for bids to B10 teams. One of these days they're not going to allow 8 or 9 teams for a conference that performs so consistently average.
We're seeing evidence of this in some of the bracket projections. Lunardi had only 6 B1G teams in his projection and the conference has fallen short of expectations in these early season games. Cats need win the rest of these non-con games to control their own destiny going into the conference schedule.
 
It's Purdue and whatever else. I'm interested to see how Illinois and Wisconsin evolve. I think Wisconsin has something figured out that they didn't have last year.

I'm hoping NU can be part of the next two or three teams. Being in that group with OSU and MSU would be a nice season.

I'm also wondering when the NCAA committee starts to consider past performances for bids to B10 teams. One of these days they're not going to allow 8 or 9 teams for a conference that performs so consistently average.
Big Ten teams bring lots of eyeballs. They're not looking for reasons to invite fewer of them.
 
Not a great out of conference day for the B1G today, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Indiana all got beat convincingly.
 
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It's Purdue and whatever else. I'm interested to see how Illinois and Wisconsin evolve. I think Wisconsin has something figured out that they didn't have last year.

I'm hoping NU can be part of the next two or three teams. Being in that group with OSU and MSU would be a nice season.s

I'm also wondering when the NCAA committee starts to consider past performances for bids to B10 teams. One of these days they're not going to allow 8 or 9 teams for a conference that performs so consistently average.
 
I watched a few minutes of ASU, an upcoming opponent, vs SD. I turned it off because SD was completely inept at defending. They literally stood around and watched as ASU drove the paint. I learned nothing about ASU beyond the fact that they have an athletic big man.


Frankly, it was bizarre. SD defense looked like middle school. Is that how they play on the west coast?
 
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San Diego wound up winning that game. ASU lost it with terrible free throw shooting, poor positioning on defense, and a mediocre 3-point game. Nevertheless, it won't be an easy game in Phoenix, but then, I don't think these Cats are good enough to take anyone for granted, even 0-9 Detroit Mercy.
 
Thanks PWB. I have been looking at Erik Haslam's ratings too. I have no idea if he has a good system or not, but I like free stuff that has full schedules of teams and predicts each game in a way that's easy to process. His ratings for the Big Ten as of today:

Purdue - 1
Wisconsin - 15
Ohio State - 22
Illinois - 23
Michigan State - 28
NORTHWESTERN - 47
Iowa - 55
Michigan - 61
Rutgers - 76
Indiana - 80
Nebraska - 81
Minnesota - 102
Penn State - 109
Maryland - 124
Thanks for the heads-up regarding Haslam's site. He starts right in taking a few shots at the better known stats guys, so I'll check out his approach.

He does have Kansas currently rated at 21, with Wisconsin 20, so he may have some 'splaining to do!
 
As far as I can tell (and I can't say I've dug in), his predictions are based on all the stats the teams accrue, rather than results of games. I have no idea if he adjusts for strength of opponent. I agree that Kansas at 21 is problematic, but it's not results-based and is instead statistics-based, I suppose it's possible.
 
TeamRecordTorvikTorvik200KenPomMiyaPWB Sagarin
Purdue9-113324
Illinois7-22518141314
Wisconsin7-32624152721
Ohio State8-22725272535
Northwestern7-14323415041
Mich State4-52174353345
Michigan5-55077423946
Nebraska8-24267607462
Iowa5-566121584863
Rutgers6-367135726071
Minnesota7-395142929074
Indiana7-26062766780
Penn State5-51221121119596
Maryland5-4752587471127

Updating the league thru the games of Dec 10...
According to Torvik, the Big Ten is 26-30 against the Top 200, outside of conference games.
Purdue is 6-0 against the Top 200, outside of the conference.
So everybody else is 20-30.

Iowa is starting to look like a non-factor. Minnesota has improved a bit.
 
TeamRecordTorvikTorvik200KenPomMiyaPWB Sagarin
Purdue9-113324
Illinois7-22518141314
Wisconsin7-32624152721
Ohio State8-22725272535
Northwestern7-14323415041
Mich State4-52174353345
Michigan5-55077423946
Nebraska8-24267607462
Iowa5-566121584863
Rutgers6-367135726071
Minnesota7-395142929074
Indiana7-26062766780
Penn State5-51221121119596
Maryland5-4752587471127

Updating the league thru the games of Dec 10...
According to Torvik, the Big Ten is 26-30 against the Top 200, outside of conference games.
Purdue is 6-0 against the Top 200, outside of the conference.
So everybody else is 20-30.

Iowa is starting to look like a non-factor. Minnesota has improved a bit.
I assume the Torvik 200 is a ranking based on performance against his top 200 teams. Very impressive for NU! Most B1G teams seem to be wetting the bed against good or decent competition.

My early sniff test results tells me the conference is pretty bad. Purdue is probably elite (gulp), and Illinois, NU and Ohio St are probably pretty good (not sure what to make of WI), then it's a large pile of doodoo.

The circular conference firing squad will commence in full force soon enough. I foresee another agglomeration of teams with 8-11 wins in conference, creating a false impression that some of our middle-of-the-pack 20-win teams are tournament quality.

NU will not fall into this pit of mediocrity! 14-15 wins in conference!
 
I assume the Torvik 200 is a ranking based on performance against his top 200 teams. Very impressive for NU! Most B1G teams seem to be wetting the bed against good or decent competition.

My early sniff test results tells me the conference is pretty bad. Purdue is probably elite (gulp), and Illinois, NU and Ohio St are probably pretty good (not sure what to make of WI), then it's a large pile of doodoo.

The circular conference firing squad will commence in full force soon enough. I foresee another agglomeration of teams with 8-11 wins in conference, creating a false impression that some of our middle-of-the-pack 20-win teams are tournament quality.

NU will not fall into this pit of mediocrity! 14-15 wins in conference!
Wisconsin has played a bunch of good teams, so they deserve credit for that, even though several of those games are losses. (2nd most difficult schedule, behind Purdue)

Looking more closely at the Wisconsin roster, they are better than I expected coming into the season.
They have one transfer, AJ Storr, who is from Rockford (IL) and played one productive season at Saint Johns.
6'7" 205 wing. Big pickup for the Badgers. Leads them in scoring at 13.8 ppg.
Crowl is back - and even though I don't like him much - he's effective - he's got the "sad puppy" thing working for him against Nicholson.
Tyler Wahl is back and not a bad player. Chucky Hepburn is pretty good. Klesmit is a quality player.
The other added piece is freshman guard John Blackwell who looks good and has pushed Essegian aside for minutes.
So they're 7 deep and actively developing a freshman to back up Crowl.

I think your 14-15 wins is within reach for the Wildcats. When I put on my optimist's hat I look at the schedule and say "We may lose that game at Purdue on Jan 31, but after that, we could go 10-0..."
 
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Wisconsin has played a bunch of good teams, so they deserve credit for that, even though several of those games are losses. (2nd most difficult schedule, behind Purdue)

Looking more closely at the Wisconsin roster, they are better than I expected coming into the season.
They have one transfer, AJ Storr, who is from Rockford (IL) and played one productive season at Saint Johns.
6'7" 205 wing. Big pickup for the Badgers. Leads them in scoring at 13.8 ppg.
Crowl is back - and even though I don't like him much - he's effective - he's got the "sad puppy" thing working for him against Nicholson.
Tyler Wahl is back and not a bad player. Chucky Hepburn is pretty good. Klesmit is a quality player.
The other added piece is freshman guard John Blackwell who looks good and has pushed Essegian aside for minutes.
So they're 7 deep and actively developing a freshman to back up Crowl.

I think your 14-15 wins is within reach for the Wildcats. When I put on my optimist's hat I look at the schedule and say "We may lose that game at Purdue on Jan 31, but after that, we could go 10-0..."
I just haven't seen the Badgers, so that's good beta. I remember hearing about Storr in HS. That is definitely a big team.

Every time I hear Crowl's name I think of that Ozzy Osbourne song.
 
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Arizona State is good enough that an NU win at least says "it's not NU's fault the rest of the conference can't beat anyone out of conference," though that statement might feel more true if they had beaten Mississippi State too.

Illinois did beat FAU and Wisconsin beat Marquette, so I like to think both teams are legit. Without looking at everyone's schedule, it seems that NU's win over Dayton might be the next best out-of-conference win behind those two and Purdue's. If NU can stay in that neighborhood and beat the Ohio States and Indianas of the world it seems that a top four finish is very very possible. Long way to go.
 
Arizona State is good enough that an NU win at least says "it's not NU's fault the rest of the conference can't beat anyone out of conference," though that statement might feel more true if they had beaten Mississippi State too.

Illinois did beat FAU and Wisconsin beat Marquette, so I like to think both teams are legit. Without looking at everyone's schedule, it seems that NU's win over Dayton might be the next best out-of-conference win behind those two and Purdue's. If NU can stay in that neighborhood and beat the Ohio States and Indianas of the world it seems that a top four finish is very very possible. Long way to go.
Ohio State handled Alabama. Bama couldn't do anything to stop Bruce Thornton, who is playing very well.
Wisconsin wiped the floor with Virginia.
But thats about it, beyond the games you mentioned.
 
Aside from PU, just a handful of good OOC wins - which makes the win over PU so important for the Cats, as there won't be too many chances for good wins in conference this season (beating middling B1G teams that won't make the Tourney won't help the resume much).
 
Great thread, wanted to throw one more stat in from KenPom. Since the preseason ratings, the teams in the B1G have done the following:

TeamPreseasonCurrentChange
Minnesota11293+19
OSU3527+8
Illinois1914+5
Wisconsin2015+5
Michigan4442+2
NU4041-1
Purdue13-2
Nebraska5860-2
Iowa5058-8
Rutgers5972-13
MSU1335-22
PSU85111-26
Indiana4976-27
Maryland2274-52

So basically at the start of the year, KenPom saw 6 likely tourney teams in Purdue, MSU, Illinois, Wisconsin, MD and OSU, with NU, Michigan, IU and Iowa on the bubble, and now sees 5 likely tourney teams in Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, OSU and MSU, with NU and Michigan on the bubble. I don't know what happened with Maryland this year.

Conference-wise, the Big 12 easily remains the best conference from preseason to now, while only the Big East has improved their positioning relative to the beginning of the year, with 3 elite teams. The SEC, Big 10 and Pac 12 have all seen their stock drop from preseason, and the ACC has been garbage from the start.
 
Great thread, wanted to throw one more stat in from KenPom. Since the preseason ratings, the teams in the B1G have done the following:

TeamPreseasonCurrentChange
Minnesota11293+19
OSU3527+8
Illinois1914+5
Wisconsin2015+5
Michigan4442+2
NU4041-1
Purdue13-2
Nebraska5860-2
Iowa5058-8
Rutgers5972-13
MSU1335-22
PSU85111-26
Indiana4976-27
Maryland2274-52

So basically at the start of the year, KenPom saw 6 likely tourney teams in Purdue, MSU, Illinois, Wisconsin, MD and OSU, with NU, Michigan, IU and Iowa on the bubble, and now sees 5 likely tourney teams in Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, OSU and MSU, with NU and Michigan on the bubble. I don't know what happened with Maryland this year.

Conference-wise, the Big 12 easily remains the best conference from preseason to now, while only the Big East has improved their positioning relative to the beginning of the year, with 3 elite teams. The SEC, Big 10 and Pac 12 have all seen their stock drop from preseason, and the ACC has been garbage from the start.
How do we knock off the Preseason #1 team in his rankings and still slip one spot? Was MS State supposed to be bad or are we being punished for not blowing out Binghamton?
 
Great thread, wanted to throw one more stat in from KenPom. Since the preseason ratings, the teams in the B1G have done the following:

TeamPreseasonCurrentChange
Minnesota11293+19
OSU3527+8
Illinois1914+5
Wisconsin2015+5
Michigan4442+2
NU4041-1
Purdue13-2
Nebraska5860-2
Iowa5058-8
Rutgers5972-13
MSU1335-22
PSU85111-26
Indiana4976-27
Maryland2274-52

So basically at the start of the year, KenPom saw 6 likely tourney teams in Purdue, MSU, Illinois, Wisconsin, MD and OSU, with NU, Michigan, IU and Iowa on the bubble, and now sees 5 likely tourney teams in Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, OSU and MSU, with NU and Michigan on the bubble. I don't know what happened with Maryland this year.

Conference-wise, the Big 12 easily remains the best conference from preseason to now, while only the Big East has improved their positioning relative to the beginning of the year, with 3 elite teams. The SEC, Big 10 and Pac 12 have all seen their stock drop from preseason, and the ACC has been garbage from the start.
To put this chart in a different way:

TeamPreseason Eff MarginCurrent Eff MarginChange
Minnesota3.777.71+3.94
Purdue26.6329.68+3.05
Wisconsin20.0122.23+2.22
Illinois20.1622.25+2.09
OSU16.6817.96+1.28
Nebraska12.3412.14-0.20
Michigan14.8214.22-0.59
Rutgers12.2510.85-1.40
NU15.7514.25-1.50
Iowa14.0212.32-1.69
PSU7.394.98-2.41
Indiana14.119.73-4.38
MSU21.5616.61-4.94
Maryland18.9510.09-8.85

Relative to preseason expectations, NU's issues have largely been not blowing out the cupcakes plus Miss St taking two bad losses after beating us. Purdue was and is elite, Wisconsin, Illinois and OSU are moving in that direction, MSU moved from near-elite to decent tourney team, Maryland fell off a cliff, and the rest of the league has been middling aside from Minnesota, who had zero expectations and is starting to come together as a team, albeit a bad to mediocre one. Also, PSU just beat OSU, but weird things happen at the Bryce Jordan Center so 🤷‍♂️
 
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