How big is the bubble? Or: why we are safe.

[SmellyCat]

The loss hurt many of us badly, but my guess is it didn't hurt NU at all. They lost in OT on a last-second shot against a near-tourney team in one of the best conferences in America. This is not like losing to Minnesota or Merrimack or Eastern Illinois.

Using bracketmatrix, I've identified 24 teams that are "on the bubble." Caveats apply - bracketmatrix hasn't been updated since the loss, my methodology is shoddy, etc. Still, I'm not worried.

The following 24 teams have at least one bracket in which the team is seeded 10th or 11th (or not at all). As of today, 18 of these teams would be in. Meaning the wrong side of the bubble is only six deep. Yes, there will be bid thieves, and some teams will play themselves into contention in the next week, but we're not talking about 30 teams ready to move up and knock NU all the way down.

NU IS AHEAD OF ALL OF THESE TEAMS, as a sixth seed. My guess is they could drop at the next update, but even then they probably won't have any prognostication of 10 or 11. And the Rutgers game, even if it's an embarrassment, is still a road loss to an NCAA team that's tough to beat at home. They're not going to drop 20 spots with that loss.

8 seeds - Illinois, Iowa, Arkansas, Providence
9 seeds - Missouri, Rutgers, Florida Atlantic, Pittsburgh
10 seeds - North Carolina St., Auburn, Boise St., Nevada
11 seeds - USC, Memphis, West Virginia, Mississippi St., Arizona State, Wisconsin
On the outside: Oklahoma St., North Carolina, Michigan, Utah St., Clemson, Penn State

Keep in mind that every one of these teams is likely to lose between now and selection Sunday, and if they WIN their conference tourneys, chances are a team ranked ahead of NU already is going to get the at-large owed to them. If any of that last group of six get hot and win their conference tourney, who are they taking it from? One of those 11 seeds. Michigan or Penn State winning the Big Ten will probably knock Wisconsin out, not some NU team that lost its last five games in a row. It's just too far to drop. Clemson/North Carolina can't both win the ACC tourney, and if they meet in the finals, it might mean that NC State or Pittsburgh lost early, and they are closer to the bottom than NU.

Bid thieves are a real thing, but where are they coming from? Conference-USA is the most obvious choice, as FAU is the only good team and is good enough to get an at-large without winning its tourney. If Utah State makes a run in the MWC, would they get an invite in addition to Boise State and Nevada, or at the expense of one of them?

So long story short (too late), yeah, NU can drop, but it's only going to drop a little. My prediction is an eight seed at worst, with a seven still reasonable (and a six still on the table).

 

[Titanium999]

No bubble for us!

 

[FeralFelidae]

Bid thieves are a real thing, but where are they coming from? Conference-USA is the most obvious choice, as FAU is the only good team and is good enough to get an at-large without winning its tourney.

North Texas is certainly a "good" team (NET currently at 52) and are certainly capable of defeating FAU in the conference tourney. They have a higher NET rating than Michigan or Pittsburgh.

They don't have enough quality wins for an at-large, but they're solidly an NIT team and they're a dangerous team to face.

 

[SimpsonElmwood]

Agree that they are almost certainly in. Been studying this for way too much time over the past week. One caveat with bracketmatrix - most or all of those brackets were created prior to last night's game. Note the dates at the top of each column.

Beyond two more NU losses, other things can chip away from the resume. Liberty, Auburn, Wisconsin, Ohio State losing the rest of their games and dropping a Quad. I'm not that worried about B1G teams losing, as it's close to a a zero sum game. Overall, things still look good despite the scars of 35+ years of NU basketball trauma.

 

[SmellyCat]

North Texas is certainly a "good" team (NET currently at 52) and are certainly capable of defeating FAU in the conference tourney. They have a higher NET rating than Michigan or Pittsburgh.

They don't have enough quality wins for an at-large, but they're solidly an NIT team and they're a dangerous team to face.

Right, if North Texas wins that conference, they'd qualify as a bid thief because an expected one-bid conference would get two bids. They're not getting in without winning their conference.

Michigan is a good contender for a bid thief, but I think they would just be taking Wisconsin's spot, so not really.

 

[SmellyCat]

Been studying this for way too much time over the past week. One caveat with bracketmatrix - most or all of those brackets were created prior to last night's game. Note the dates at the top of each column.

I think it would be all. I've been looking at this stuff a lot in the last several weeks as well. Sometimes you can click on one of the headings and there's an updated bracket there, but that's not reflected in the big chart. So if EVERYBODY drops NU from six to seven or seven to eight between yesterday and today, that will only be reflected when the March 2 update comes.

 

[CappyNU]

We'll be fine.

 

[WildcatWillie]

FAU is pretty strong. Blasted Rice tonight and scored 100+, using almost all their roster.

 

[Secho99]

I think it would be all. I've been looking at this stuff a lot in the last several weeks as well. Sometimes you can click on one of the headings and there's an updated bracket there, but that's not reflected in the big chart. So if EVERYBODY drops NU from six to seven or seven to eight between yesterday and today, that will only be reflected when the March 2 update comes.

A bunch of projections were updated today and we're still on the 6 line in bracketmatrix and still on the 6 line in Lunardi's bracket. Some brackets have us slipping as far as 8 already, but those seem to be outliers (as is the weird bracket that has us as a 10 and Michigan State as a 5).

If we lose 2 more in a row, I could see slipping as far as an 8-9 game, maaaybe all the way to 10. Losing 5 in a row would suck, but remember we won 5 in a row before that and those still count. Otherwise we should be pretty good in the 6-7 range. Of course, if we go to the B1G semis or final we could potentially still move up.

It should be noted that, historically, it's easier to reach the Sweet 16 as a 10 or 11 seed than it is as an 8 or 9. Better chance to win one game in the 8-9 slot, but much harder to win the second. That's why holding no lower than 7 would be nice, because otherwise we'd be better off as a 10.

 

[SmellyCat]

It should be noted that, historically, it's easier to reach the Sweet 16 as a 10 or 11 seed than it is as an 8 or 9. Better chance to win one game in the 8-9 slot, but much harder to win the second. That's why holding no lower than 7 would be nice, because otherwise we'd be better off as a 10.

Yes, this is an important consideration. While we want the "best" seed we can get, because of respect, ease of first-round matchup, and sometimes even location of first weekend, for all intents and purposes it's really not that different, sometimes it's better to have a seen that's worse. A 7/10 matchup is practically even these days, and even 6/11 and 5/12 bring a few "upsets" every year. No doubt the 11 seed that pulls a Northwestern matchup will think NU is ripe for an upset.

 

[IMC Cat]

Lunardi has us as a 6 seed facing 11 seed WVU in Columbus in today's Bracketology update fwiw

 

[AdamOnFirst]

Lunardi has us as a 6 seed facing 11 seed WVU in Columbus in today's Bracketology update fwiw

Yup. People need to remember that, while the ranking systems don't all love our team much the resume of big wins is just short of nationally elite. Warts and all they've won more than their share of heavyweight bouts this year.

 

[SmellyCat]

Lunardi has us as a 6 seed facing 11 seed WVU in Columbus in today's Bracketology update fwiw

Please Columbus. Not so much facing a Big 12 team, but I guess if you're going to win six NCAA games you have to beat some good teams.

 

[Secho99]

Please Columbus. Not so much facing a Big 12 team, but I guess if you're going to win six NCAA games you have to beat some good teams.

As someone who lives in Portland I'm pulling hard for Sacramento (or Denver), though I realize I'm probably in the minority there. I can get to Iceland faster than I can get to Columbus (this is not hyperbole).

 

[NUCat320]

As someone who lives in Portland I'm pulling hard for Sacramento (or Denver), though I realize I'm probably in the minority there. I can get to Iceland faster than I can get to Columbus (this is not hyperbole).

My research can get you to KEF in 7:40 nonstop, but to CMH in 6:52 with a 1:40 layover in MSP. I can get you to BUF (via DTW) in 7:34, and BHM (ATL, of course, so many BHM flights) in 7:11.

GSO (look it up) at 7:44 fails ‘the KEF test’.

BUF is CHEAP too. Good luck.
(Ooops, it’s actual ALB, but that beats KEF too, and is slightly less cheap than BUF. Or is it BUF? I’ll find out in about 8 days.)

(DSM is easy, and TPA has a nonstop. There’s basically no excuse.)

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

As someone who lives in Portland I'm pulling hard for Sacramento (or Denver), though I realize I'm probably in the minority there. I can get to Iceland faster than I can get to Columbus (this is not hyperbole).

Can we go ahead and assume that you're talking about Portland #2, in Maine?

 

[Secho99]

My research can get you to KEF in 7:40 nonstop, but to CMH in 6:52 with a 1:40 layover in MSP. I can get you to BUF (via DTW) in 7:34, and BHM (ATL, of course, so many BHM flights) in 7:11.

GSO (look it up) at 7:44 fails ‘the KEF test’.

BUF is CHEAP too. Good luck.
(Ooops, it’s actual ALB, but that beats KEF too, and is slightly less cheap than BUF. Or is it BUF? I’ll find out in about 8 days.)

(DSM is easy, and TPA has a nonstop. There’s basically no excuse.)

Good work here, nice to know how all these spots compare. I did the Iceland flight once and it’s really only about 7 hours in the air. I figured getting to Columbus would come in right around there given I’d have to go through MSP or ORD.

 

[Secho99]

Can we go ahead and assume that you're talking about Portland #2, in Maine?

Nope, the west coast one. We have direct flights to Reykjavik that take about 7 hours (it’s listed as 7:45 but we landed 45 minutes early the time I took it). Something about flying up over close to the North Pole to cut off some distance. Columbus is obviously closer but we don’t have any direct flights there.

 

[phatcat]

Nope, the west coast one. We have direct flights to Reykjavik that take about 7 hours (it’s listed as 7:45 but we landed 45 minutes early the time I took it). Something about flying up over close to the North Pole to cut off some distance. Columbus is obviously closer but we don’t have any direct flights there.

We lived in eastern Idaho for a couple of years. It took forever to get anywhere from those dinky airports. Usually, we would just drive to SLC to have a reasonable airport. Still took forever to get back east. I went to my sister's funeral last year, it was 12 hours door-to-door, with driving, waiting and connecting

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

We lived in eastern Idaho for a couple of years. It took forever to get anywhere from those dinky airports. Usually, we would just drive to SLC to have a reasonable airport. Still took forever to get back east. I went to my sister's funeral last year, it was 12 hours door-to-door, with driving, waiting and connecting

When we went to Yellowstone and Tetons, we flew Chicago to Salt Lake City, then drove. Wasn't bad. But that was definitely the "fastest" way to get there for the money. (Flights into Jackson Wyoming were fewer and a lot more $$$)

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Nope, the west coast one. We have direct flights to Reykjavik that take about 7 hours (it’s listed as 7:45 but we landed 45 minutes early the time I took it). Something about flying up over close to the North Pole to cut off some distance. Columbus is obviously closer but we don’t have any direct flights there.

Having visited "both Portlands" I'd have to say I like yours more, but the smaller one in Maine is seeing a resurgence.
Both have excellent access to the real outdoors but the scenery is a notch (maybe two) higher in Oregon.

The "flying north over the Arctic" phenomenon is pretty cool. I've used a globe and a piece of string to understand it.

I have yet to set foot on Iceland... or Columbus Ohio - unless a childhood road trip dragged me there and I forgot.

 

[EvanstonCat]

We've been off the bubble and a lock in ESPN's braketology for a couple of weeks already.

The wins are important though for seeding. It's not enough to have made the tourney. Now, we have to aim to go deep.

 

[AdamOnFirst]

We've been off the bubble and a lock in ESPN's braketology for a couple of weeks already.

The wins are important though for seeding. It's not enough to have made the tourney. Now, we have to aim to go deep.

The sweet sixteen is the absolute promised land for NU hoops. To me, the sweet sixteen is equivalent to a Rose Bowl, or at least a NY6 appearance. It’s achievable.