We beat MSU and Minnesota - We're in 100%
We beat one of MSU and Minnesota - We make it unless Wisconsin beats both Rutgers and Purdue, and Nebraska beats Michigan
We lose to both MSU and Minnesota - We only make it if Indiana beats Minnesota, Rutgers and Purdue beat Wisconsin, and Illinois beats Iowa
Given the likelihood of these events, we need to win one and have Purdue beat the Badgers. The best way to have Purdue be motivated to beat the Badgers is for Illinois to beat Purdue during the week, as that will mean Purdue won't have the 1-seed locked up.
We beat one of MSU and Minnesota - We make it unless Wisconsin beats both Rutgers and Purdue, and Nebraska beats Michigan
We lose to both MSU and Minnesota - We only make it if Indiana beats Minnesota, Rutgers and Purdue beat Wisconsin, and Illinois beats Iowa
Given the likelihood of these events, we need to win one and have Purdue beat the Badgers. The best way to have Purdue be motivated to beat the Badgers is for Illinois to beat Purdue during the week, as that will mean Purdue won't have the 1-seed locked up.