NU tourney scenarios

[NJcatsfan]

I don’t read the professional prognostication sites or dive deep into the quad/strength of schedule stats. This is just my sense of how things look with 12 regular season B1G games remaining on the schedule. The Cats are 14-5/(5-3) thus far. Let’s consider three major scenarios, prior to the conference tournament…

Pessimistic:
4-2 at home
1-5 on the road
19-12/(10-10)
Verdict: BUBBLE, might need a win or two in the BTT to definitely get in

“Average:”
5-1 at home
2-4 on the road
21-10/(12-8)
Verdict: IN, 8/9 seed

Optimistic:
6-0 at home
2-4 on the road
(Or 5-1 and 3-3)
22-9/(13-7)
Verdict: IN, 6/7 seed

(Two other scenarios: A meltdown, losing 8+ remaining games, and falling off the bubble completely -OR- an epic finish with 14+ conference wins, landing a 5/6 seed)

How do we feel about this? Are these reasonable scenarios? Which is likeliest?

The beaten down NU fan in me can’t shake the meltdown or pessimistic options. My inner exuberant fan is rooting (not totally irrationally) for the optimistic or even epic options. But “average” seems about right. We honk one of the last 6 home games, but steal 1 or 2 on the road. The final B1G record that I’m not sure about is 11-9. I do think that gets us just off the bubble and in.

Take nothing for granted! Go ‘Cats!

 

[benoitdenizetl]

I worry about 11-9 getting us in, especially with our brutal loss to Chicago State and how it impacts that staggeringly stupid metric known as NET. Our team also isn’t designed to make a deep run in conference tourney (not enough depth). 10-10 is barely bubble IMO.

Your average scenario is the most likely, but if we stay healthy I’m bullish on your optimistic option. But boy am I worried about an Ohio State letdown. Need the students to show up and make some noise, and the team needs to play like the season depends on it. 6-3 going into game at Purdue is where we need to be.

Go Felines!

 

[EvanstonCat]

I’d like to win the rest of them. Including at Purdue. And then win the tourney. Where would that put us?

 

[Catreporter]

Students will be out in force, I am sure. Just hope the team recovers its legs. DEEEFense must contain their bulky point guard Thornton and not allow the Minnesota transfer 3-point specialist, Jamison Battle to go off.

 

[ParisCat]

Why do the analytics hate us so much? High 50s in KenPom, 70s in NET. Surely it can’t be because of the single aberrant Chicago State loss, can it?

 

[CappyNU]

Why do the analytics hate us so much? High 50s in KenPom, 70s in NET. Surely it can’t be because of the single aberrant Chicago State loss, can it?

No, in general we performed very poorly against the worst teams we played this year. We underperformed significantly against Binghamton, Western Michigan, Chicago State, DePaul and Jackson State.

The Chicago State loss is a gigantic weight keeping our numbers down though. The Illinois loss was effectively canceled out by the subsequent MSU and @PSU wins, but we're still trying to recover from Chicago State.

 

[SmellyCat]

I'm not worried about meltdowns anymore. The team is really resilient. As long as the key players stay healthy (and obviously that's a big if), long losing streaks just aren't going to happen.

There are four road games coming up that the computers consider a toss-up: Minnesota (2/3), Rutgers (2/15), Indiana (2/18), Maryland (2/28). The other two are Purdue (1/31) and Michigan State (3/6) - i.e. teams we've already beaten at home. Gotta win at least two of those toss-ups or they'll need to run the table at home.

 

[CappyNU]

I don’t read the professional prognostication sites or dive deep into the quad/strength of schedule stats. This is just my sense of how things look with 12 regular season B1G games remaining on the schedule. The Cats are 14-5/(5-3) thus far. Let’s consider three major scenarios, prior to the conference tournament…

Pessimistic:
4-2 at home
1-5 on the road
19-12/(10-10)
Verdict: BUBBLE, might need a win or two in the BTT to definitely get in

“Average:”
5-1 at home
2-4 on the road
21-10/(12-8)
Verdict: IN, 8/9 seed

Optimistic:
6-0 at home
2-4 on the road
(Or 5-1 and 3-3)
22-9/(13-7)
Verdict: IN, 6/7 seed

(Two other scenarios: A meltdown, losing 8+ remaining games, and falling off the bubble completely -OR- an epic finish with 14+ conference wins, landing a 5/6 seed)

How do we feel about this? Are these reasonable scenarios? Which is likeliest?

The beaten down NU fan in me can’t shake the meltdown or pessimistic options. My inner exuberant fan is rooting (not totally irrationally) for the optimistic or even epic options. But “average” seems about right. We honk one of the last 6 home games, but steal 1 or 2 on the road. The final B1G record that I’m not sure about is 11-9. I do think that gets us just off the bubble and in.

Take nothing for granted! Go ‘Cats!

Per Torvik's site, our remaining games look like this in order of least-damaging loss to most-damaging loss:

Currently the underdog
@Purdue (Q1)
@MSU (Q1)
--------
@Maryland (Q2)
@Indiana (Q2)
@Minnesota (Q2)

Currently the favorite
@Rutgers (Q2)
OSU (Q2)
Nebraska (Q2)
--------
Iowa (Q2)
Michigan (Q3)
Minnesota (Q3)
PSU (Q3)

If we win the games we're currently favored to win, that puts us at 21-10 (12-8) heading into the BTT. Per Torvik, that puts us at an 11 seed as one of the last 4 byes and firmly on the bubble.

From what I can tell, 12-8 with a win @Purdue, no Q3 losses, and a 1st-round BTT loss would have us safely in. Going 12-8 with a Q1 win, no Q3 losses and at least one win in the BTT should also have us safely in. 12-8 with no Q1 win and no Q3 losses would require us to make it to the BTT championship game to be safely in.

The only way I can see us being safely in the tourney at 11-9 is if we sweep the Q1 games, win at least 2 Q3 games, and win at least one in the BTT.

13-7 should have us safe regardless, unless we do something really dumb like winning at Minnesota, IU and Maryland while losing at home to PSU and Minnesota and losing the 1st game at the BTT.

I think our NET rating is going to really prevent our seeding from going above an 8 unless we pull off a Q1 win while going 13-7 plus multiple wins in the BTT. Most likely is a 10 or 11, maybe a 9.

 

[UpsetAlert]

Per Torvik's site, our remaining games look like this in order of least-damaging loss to most-damaging loss:

Currently the underdog
@Purdue (Q1)
@MSU (Q1)
--------
@Maryland (Q2)
@Indiana (Q2)
@Minnesota (Q2)

Currently the favorite
@Rutgers (Q2)
OSU (Q2)
Nebraska (Q2)
--------
Iowa (Q2)
Michigan (Q3)
Minnesota (Q3)
PSU (Q3)

If we win the games we're currently favored to win, that puts us at 21-10 (12-8) heading into the BTT. Per Torvik, that puts us at an 11 seed as one of the last 4 byes and firmly on the bubble.

From what I can tell, 12-8 with a win @Purdue, no Q3 losses, and a 1st-round BTT loss would have us safely in. Going 12-8 with a Q1 win, no Q3 losses and at least one win in the BTT should also have us safely in. 12-8 with no Q1 win and no Q3 losses would require us to make it to the BTT championship game to be safely in.

The only way I can see us being safely in the tourney at 11-9 is if we sweep the Q1 games, win at least 2 Q3 games, and win at least one in the BTT.

13-7 should have us safe regardless, unless we do something really dumb like winning at Minnesota, IU and Maryland while losing at home to PSU and Minnesota and losing the 1st game at the BTT.

I think our NET rating is going to really prevent our seeding from going above an 8 unless we pull off a Q1 win while going 13-7 plus multiple wins in the BTT. Most likely is a 10 or 11, maybe a 9.

If we have 11 B1G wins and are an 11 seed in the tournament that would be a crime. Wins over Purdue, Dayton (everyone forgets how good a win this is), MSU, Illinois, Maryland, etc., etc. are really high quality. Plus, whatever we get that is left on the table, especially if we can steal a Q2 road win or two. Heck, even the ASU neutral site game looks better than it did at the time and maybeeee might have some upside down the road.

I’d have some level faith (hope?) that the committee would view us relatively positively and not hold a single mid-December random 2 point loss against us too much considering injuries, etc.

 

[SmellyCat]

I’d have some level faith (hope?) that the committee would view us relatively positively and not hold a single mid-December random 2 point loss against us too much considering injuries, etc.

Yes, I keep thinking that the CSU game only comes into play if NU is truly on the bubble. As long as NU goes at least .500 the rest of the way let's say, the wins will way outweigh a single inexplicable loss.

 

[CappyNU]

If we have 11 B1G wins and are an 11 seed in the tournament that would be a crime. Wins over Purdue, Dayton (everyone forgets how good a win this is), MSU, Illinois, Maryland, etc., etc. are really high quality. Plus, whatever we get that is left on the table, especially if we can steal a Q2 road win or two. Heck, even the ASU neutral site game looks better than it did at the time and maybeeee might have some upside down the road.

I’d have some level faith (hope?) that the committee would view us relatively positively and not hold a single mid-December random 2 point loss against us too much considering injuries, etc.

It wouldn't be without precedent.

2022 Michigan:
17-14 (11-9), 11 seed
Wins over 8 seed SDSU, @12 seed IU, 3 seed Purdue, @5 seed Iowa, 7 seed MSU, @7 seed OSU
Lost at home to 4-16 Minnesota, lost 1st game at BTT

2022 Rutgers:
18-13 (12-8), 11 seed
Wins over 3 seed Purdue, 11 seed Michigan, 5 seed Iowa, 7 seed MSU, 7 seed OSU, @3 seed Wisconsin, 4 seed Illinois, @12 seed IU
Lost at home to 7-13 Maryland, along with Kenpom #185 UMass and #323 Lafayette at home, lost 1st game at BTT

2018 Nebraska:
22-10 (13-5), missed the tourney due to extremely weak and top-heavy Big Ten (only 4 teams in tourney)
Wins over NIT 5 seed BC, 3 seed Michigan, NIT 4 seed PSU
Lost @4-14 Illinois, no other real bad losses, lost 1st game at BTT.

2016 Michigan:
22-12 (10-8), 11 seed
Wins over 6 seed Texas (neutral), 5 seed Maryland, 5 seed Purdue, 5 seed IU (BTT)
No bad losses, made it to BTT Semis

2014 Nebraska:
19-12 (11-7), 11 seed
Wins over 6 seed OSU, NIT 1 seed and champion Minnesota, NIT 2 seed Illinois, @4 seed MSU, 2 seed Wisconsin
Lost to Kenpom #156 UAB (neutral), @5-13 Purdue, lost 1st game at BTT.

 

[SmellyCat]

So if we're assuming 6-7 the rest of the way (including loss in first BTT game) for this scenario, NU is 20-12. Let's assume they win the ones they're expected to win and lose the ones they're expected to lose (i.e. no additional upsets of Purdue).

So what would they have at that point? Home wins over Purdue (#1 seed in current Bracketmatrix), Illinois (#4), Dayton (#4), Michigan State (#9) and a few other decent-but-not-great skins

Losses: One bad one, a few other decent-but-not-horrible ones. Playing Nebraska (#10) tough on road - with a chance to pay them back in WRA. Playing Wisconsin (#2) even on the road for 36 minutes, for what that's worth. Playing Mississippi State (#9) close in early-season neutral site loss.

That looks like a resume of a team that is seeded at least 10th, if not better. Obviously we're all worried about the Chicago State loss, but this is a good resume despite what the computers say.

 

[freewillie07]

No, in general we performed very poorly against the worst teams we played this year. We underperformed significantly against Binghamton, Western Michigan, Chicago State, DePaul and Jackson State.

The Chicago State loss is a gigantic weight keeping our numbers down though. The Illinois loss was effectively canceled out by the subsequent MSU and @PSU wins, but we're still trying to recover from Chicago State.

This right here.

To be on the right side of the analytics, you can’t play down to the competition, as NU tends to do for whatever reason. It’s not enough to just “win” over the Binghamtons of the world — the Cats need to pulverize them like they did to Detroit Mercy. And obviously to come out on the wrong side of the W/L column against Chicago State is inexcusable.

Hopefully the program continues to trend in the right direction and the killer instinct will kick in earlier in the season.

It is a little annoying with how well the team is playing right now that we’re still stressing about whether an above .500 Big Ten record will be good enough to go dancing.

 

[UpsetAlert]

It wouldn't be without precedent.

2022 Michigan:
17-14 (11-9), 11 seed
Wins over 8 seed SDSU, @12 seed IU, 3 seed Purdue, @5 seed Iowa, 7 seed MSU, @7 seed OSU
Lost at home to 4-16 Minnesota, lost 1st game at BTT

2022 Rutgers:
18-13 (12-8), 11 seed
Wins over 3 seed Purdue, 11 seed Michigan, 5 seed Iowa, 7 seed MSU, 7 seed OSU, @3 seed Wisconsin, 4 seed Illinois, @12 seed IU
Lost at home to 7-13 Maryland, along with Kenpom #185 UMass and #323 Lafayette at home, lost 1st game at BTT

2018 Nebraska:
22-10 (13-5), missed the tourney due to extremely weak and top-heavy Big Ten (only 4 teams in tourney)
Wins over NIT 5 seed BC, 3 seed Michigan, NIT 4 seed PSU
Lost @4-14 Illinois, no other real bad losses, lost 1st game at BTT.

2016 Michigan:
22-12 (10-8), 11 seed
Wins over 6 seed Texas (neutral), 5 seed Maryland, 5 seed Purdue, 5 seed IU (BTT)
No bad losses, made it to BTT Semis

2014 Nebraska:
19-12 (11-7), 11 seed
Wins over 6 seed OSU, NIT 1 seed and champion Minnesota, NIT 2 seed Illinois, @4 seed MSU, 2 seed Wisconsin
Lost to Kenpom #156 UAB (neutral), @5-13 Purdue, lost 1st game at BTT.

Sure, but none of those teams had a win over the probable #1 seed. Still, now that I’m thinking about it, would you rather have the 10-11-12 seeds than the 8-9 and avoid a probable matchup with a top 4 team in the second round? Fun to ponder…

 

[AdamOnFirst]

I think your “optimistic” scenerio is not optimistic enough in terms of road performance to reach a 6/7 seed. 5-1 at home is very very doable (kinda need it, actually) and 6-0 is far from crazy. Optimistic to me would mean 6-0, 3-3. At that point at 14-6 I think yeah, we’re about a 6.

Lunardi updated this AM and we’re STILL a last four in, so the predictive rankings are still killing us. Thats one factor that could be suppressing where we actually sit in terms of projected seed. As the season goes on, the predictive rankings slowly lose the seeding precedence to a heavier dose or pure resume, where NU is strong. The bracketologists at this point are engaging in a mixture of “if the season ended today” and “a reasonable projection of end of year resume based on predictive quality.” The predictive rankings still expect us to suffer some stumbles but probably sneak in. If we keep playing like our resume, perhaps in the last couple of weeks when the predictive portion gets dumped there will be a rapid climb.

 

[SmellyCat]

Sure, but none of those teams had a win over the probable #1 seed. Still, now that I’m thinking about it, would you rather have the 10-11-12 seeds than the 8-9 and avoid a probable matchup with a top 4 team in the second round? Fun to ponder…

I think about this too, and I'm happy we can even ponder. Playing teams as good as Gonzaga in 2017 and UCLA in 2023 had to happen eventually if NU was going to win it all, but might as well avoid those opponents for as long as possible. A 12 seed gets a good 5 seed, but 12's beat 5's all the time. Then they presumably get a four seed in the next round (but sometimes a 13). Those teams are more beatable than a juggernaut like Gonzaga.

The ironic thing is right now Gonzaga is playing like a 12 seed and is squarely on the bubble. For all we know, NU will get a rematch with them...in Dayton.

 

[SmellyCat]

Lunardi updated this AM and we’re STILL a last four in, so the predictive rankings are still killing us.

Correction: they're in the "last four byes" column, so I guess last eight in. Lunardi projects NU as a #10 seed. I think his methodology this time of year is "if the season ended today," but I could be wrong. For example, he had Indiana in the bracketology for a while when they started the conference 2-0 as the Big Ten automatic qualifier, even if no one thought they'd actually win the conference.

 

[AdamOnFirst]

Correction: they're in the "last four byes" column, so I guess last eight in. Lunardi projects NU as a #10 seed. I think his methodology this time of year is "if the season ended today," but I could be wrong. For example, he had Indiana in the bracketology for a while when they started the conference 2-0 as the Big Ten automatic qualifier, even if no one thought they'd actually win the conference.

You are correct, I meant the last 4 IN IN. Losing a first four as an at large is quite a buzzkill. It’s like you got to the dance and came in the lobby and then got kicked out.

 

[GatoLouco]

Lunardi updated this AM

The bonkers thing for me is the number or bids for the Mountain West. OK, also of the American.

Men's Bracketology: Bid stealers leave out Pitt, Virginia, Seton Hall, Indiana State

Most years the

www.espn.com

 

[AdamOnFirst]

The bonkers thing for me is the number or bids for the Mountain West. OK, also of the American.

Men's Bracketology: Bid stealers leave out Pitt, Virginia, Seton Hall, Indiana State

Most years the

www.espn.com

They’re playing good basketball out there in the future PAC 10

 

[SmellyCat]

Losses: One bad one, a few other decent-but-not-horrible ones. Playing Nebraska (#10) tough on road - with a chance to pay them back in WRA. Playing Wisconsin (#2) even on the road for 36 minutes, for what that's worth. Playing Mississippi State (#9) close in early-season neutral site loss.

I probably should've noted the 30-point loss to Illinois here. That's not nothing, and it might be something the committee might have a problem with. Avenging a loss (blowout or not) always helps, so at least they've got that going for them, which is nice.

 

[Kelly_32]

I have Final Four tickets and I’m fully expecting to watch Northwestern play.

 

[Baz=Heisman]

My take is we get to 11-9 in the league and we are in as last 4 bye. 10-10 probably the “first four” round.

Regardless, we cannot lose any of the Q3 games in my scenarios. Having 4 Q1 wins right now is more than several teams that will have AL bids. Normally 3 Q1 is the minimum number to get in from what I recall.

Also, check out Mike DeCourcy’s bracket on Fox Sports. Lunardi and Palm are clowns who only have a following because they’ve been doing it forever. Don’t trust them.

We gotta beat Ohio State though as previously mentioned and get to 6-3 in the league because Purdue is a likely loss and then, at least for purpose of the argument, @MSU/home vs Nebraska which gives us 6 losses right there…

 

[macarthur31]

Lunardi updated this AM and we’re STILL a last four in, so the predictive rankings are still killing us. Thats one factor that could be suppressing where we actually sit in terms of projected seed. As the season goes on, the predictive rankings slowly lose the seeding precedence to a heavier dose or pure resume, where NU is strong. The bracketologists at this point are engaging in a mixture of “if the season ended today” and “a reasonable projection of end of year resume based on predictive quality.” The predictive rankings still expect us to suffer some stumbles but probably sneak in. If we keep playing like our resume, perhaps in the last couple of weeks when the predictive portion gets dumped there will be a rapid climb.

This is a crucial reminder that even as a kenpom subscriber I have keep re-grounding myself - the actual selections are going to be based on games played, while all this content produced by DeCourcy, Lunardi et al is projection, and meant to keep the dialogue flowing between games.

Was the 'Cats second half vs. Illinois their ceiling? Outside of Purdue, I don't foresee any future opponent being able to contain that. Do they need the 'must-win' urgency and top-flight talent to bring that kind of effort out of them? If they figure out how to make that their new standard, then the 'Cats will be fine.

 

[EagerFan]

I love this board's optimism. I admit all I'm hoping for right now is the Cats thrash OSU tomorrow instead of falling off after the effort and emotion they put into the last game.

 

[Catdude]

I feel like the Big 10 will get five teams (and maybe six) into the tourney so I’d like to think finishing top 5 in conference will be enough.

 

[RhabdoWildcat]

I think your “optimistic” scenerio is not optimistic enough in terms of road performance to reach a 6/7 seed. 5-1 at home is very very doable (kinda need it, actually) and 6-0 is far from crazy. Optimistic to me would mean 6-0, 3-3. At that point at 14-6 I think yeah, we’re about a 6.

Lunardi updated this AM and we’re STILL a last four in, so the predictive rankings are still killing us. Thats one factor that could be suppressing where we actually sit in terms of projected seed. As the season goes on, the predictive rankings slowly lose the seeding precedence to a heavier dose or pure resume, where NU is strong. The bracketologists at this point are engaging in a mixture of “if the season ended today” and “a reasonable projection of end of year resume based on predictive quality.” The predictive rankings still expect us to suffer some stumbles but probably sneak in. If we keep playing like our resume, perhaps in the last couple of weeks when the predictive portion gets dumped there will be a rapid climb.

We're not last four in.

We're last four byes.

 

[Secho99]

The Chicago St loss clearly hurt our NET ranking because quality of wins and losses is built into the formula, but if we had beat them 76-75 instead of losing 75-73 it wouldn't really affect our KenPom ranking at all. KenPom doesn't include wins and losses in its calculation, it's just offensive and defensive efficiency adjusted for opponent. We suffer in KenPom because we played close games against weak competition in the non-conference schedule, but as we play more games against better teams the numbers should improve as long as we don't suck (but if we do we won't make the tourney anyway).

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Interesting discussion.

Just want to point out that in the 2022-23 season, the Big Ten had many more teams in the Top 45 at NCAA selection time than it does this season. Back then (using my own rankings) the Big Ten had ELEVEN teams in the Top 45. Those teams were all bunched between #27 and #45, with the exception of Purdue, which I had at #7 before the NCAA tournament. Everybody remembers the parity in the league that year.

This year there are only 4 Big Ten teams in my Top 45, with Purdue at #1, Illinois #9, Wisconsin #10 and Michigan State #19. (Nebraska is #50, NU is #52, Iowa is #55, Ohio State is #63)

In other words, the computer ratings say the Big Ten (overall) is down this year. So 11-9 is probably bubble.

 

[eastbaycat99]

Not that I am jaded about making the tournament, but I would view a rest of the regular season finish of 6-6, that is, an 11-9 overall regular conference record as very disappointing, and considering the softness of the conference this year, deservedly disqualifying . Similarly, a 7-5/12-8 scenario would indicate to me that even if they made the tournament, it would be marginal and I would not be offended by being passed over. I do believe 8-4 or better the rest of the way (13-7 or better conference) would (or should) merit a non-11 seed berth, and would also leave me with an unqualified good feeling about the year. What would be nice is an upset of Purdue next week, a very strong last 10, and a conference title would make me very happy, regardless of the tournament seed or result.

 

[FeralFelidae]

No, in general we performed very poorly against the worst teams we played this year. We underperformed significantly against Binghamton, Western Michigan, Chicago State, DePaul and Jackson State.

Right, because the new metrics take margin of victory into account. On the other hand, the RPI, which doesn't care about margin of victory, has the 'Cats in the top 40.

I think the RPI is more accurate. The margin of victory should not be heavily weighted, as it certainly doesn't take style of play into account. Defense-focused teams are unfairly punished. The 'Cats aren't going to win many blowouts, but they'll defeat Purdue, Illinois, and Dayton in hard-won contests.

I'd love to see what Sagarin says, but he's not publishing his NCAA basketball ratings so far this season.

 

[NJcatsfan]

It wouldn't be without precedent.

2022 Michigan:
17-14 (11-9), 11 seed
Wins over 8 seed SDSU, @12 seed IU, 3 seed Purdue, @5 seed Iowa, 7 seed MSU, @7 seed OSU
Lost at home to 4-16 Minnesota, lost 1st game at BTT

2022 Rutgers:
18-13 (12-8), 11 seed
Wins over 3 seed Purdue, 11 seed Michigan, 5 seed Iowa, 7 seed MSU, 7 seed OSU, @3 seed Wisconsin, 4 seed Illinois, @12 seed IU
Lost at home to 7-13 Maryland, along with Kenpom #185 UMass and #323 Lafayette at home, lost 1st game at BTT

2018 Nebraska:
22-10 (13-5), missed the tourney due to extremely weak and top-heavy Big Ten (only 4 teams in tourney)
Wins over NIT 5 seed BC, 3 seed Michigan, NIT 4 seed PSU
Lost @4-14 Illinois, no other real bad losses, lost 1st game at BTT.

2016 Michigan:
22-12 (10-8), 11 seed
Wins over 6 seed Texas (neutral), 5 seed Maryland, 5 seed Purdue, 5 seed IU (BTT)
No bad losses, made it to BTT Semis

2014 Nebraska:
19-12 (11-7), 11 seed
Wins over 6 seed OSU, NIT 1 seed and champion Minnesota, NIT 2 seed Illinois, @4 seed MSU, 2 seed Wisconsin
Lost to Kenpom #156 UAB (neutral), @5-13 Purdue, lost 1st game at BTT.

This makes me more confident about this season if the Cats don’t meltdown

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Right, because the new metrics take margin of victory into account. On the other hand, the RPI, which doesn't care about margin of victory, has the 'Cats in the top 40.

I think the RPI is more accurate. The margin of victory should not be heavily weighted, as it certainly doesn't take style of play into account. Defense-focused teams are unfairly punished. The 'Cats aren't going to win many blowouts, but they'll defeat Purdue, Illinois, and Dayton in hard-won contests.

I'd love to see what Sagarin says, but he's not publishing his NCAA basketball ratings so far this season.

Sagarin definitely stopped publishing as soon as USA Today stopped paying him.
His PurePoints rating is very close to Ken Pom. Uses the game margins to rate the teams.
Only significant difference is that KenPom rates the offense and the defense.
Ken Pomeroy (or his friends) wanted to be able to bet over/unders.
You couldn't do that with Sagarin's ratings.

 

[phatcat]

Verdict: BUBBLE, might need a win or two in the BTT to definitely get in

This is the funny part

 

[NJcatsfan]

Tonight was good. Optimism rising.

 

[olshin]

My take is we get to 11-9 in the league and we are in as last 4 bye. 10-10 probably the “first four” round.

Regardless, we cannot lose any of the Q3 games in my scenarios. Having 4 Q1 wins right now is more than several teams that will have AL bids. Normally 3 Q1 is the minimum number to get in from what I recall.

Also, check out Mike DeCourcy’s bracket on Fox Sports. Lunardi and Palm are clowns who only have a following because they’ve been doing it forever. Don’t trust them.

We gotta beat Ohio State though as previously mentioned and get to 6-3 in the league because Purdue is a likely loss and then, at least for purpose of the argument, @MSU/home vs Nebraska which gives us 6 losses right there…

Nebraska at home a likely loss? Not sure I buy that. The only "likely" loss the rest of the way is Wednesday, unless we find a way to sneak in our court and take theirs out.

 

[JournCat]

Tonight was good. Optimism rising.

My only guess at why CC left starters in for so long was he wanted the bigger margin for the computers. Which is actually not the worst reason given how much they matter in the public discourse in March.

 

[Catreporter]

I think he also wanted Clayton to play more with the starters.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Nebraska at home a likely loss? Not sure I buy that. The only "likely" loss the rest of the way is Wednesday, unless we find a way to sneak in our court and take theirs out.

We will beat Nebraska!