The Boilers are very good and almost unbeatable at home. The last look at the game’s line was PU -13. I do think NU covers. The two teams played to a regulation draw in Evanston in December. Give Purdue a 15 point swing, going from a hostile to extremely friendly venue. Comparing the December 1 game to today’s, Purdue’s rotation and general play going into today is pretty much unchanged. On the Cats’ side, Barnhizer is healthy and can shoot effectively again, and Nicholson has come back to form as a post defender and offensive option if Edey leaves the rim to stop Buie as he attacks the basket. PU’s one weakness on defense is susceptibility at the perimeter to a team that has a PG who can attack with 3 teammates who can shoot. They can’t both stop the ball and cover all three, largely due to Loyer’s weakness. With Barnhizer able to shoot again, Purdue will have trouble covering all the Cats’ shooters. In addition, Edey will need to decide whether to leave the rim to stop Buie (last game he didn’t and it was fatal) and leave Nicholson free for lobs. Nicholson should also fare a little better on the defensive end. He is one of a handful of B1G bigs who is capable of only being routinely beaten but not annihilated by Edey. In short, the Cats’s offense matches up better this time than it did in December, and Edey should be a few points short of the 35 he had in Evanston. Give the Cats 7-8 points as a result, cutting the margin from my starting point of 15 to 7 or 8. The other wildcard is how the game is officiated. The December game was called very tight, clearly to PU’s advantage. It could be called that way again, but anything more tolerant works to NU’s advantage. I really see this is a single digit game, though still a large enough digit that Purdue prevails.
