Plus/Minus for the Cakewalk over Minnesota

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Player	Minutes	NU Pts	MIN Pts	Team +/-	Player Adjust	Net +/-
Pete Nance	29	53	45	+8	+12.3	+20.3
Boo Buie	27	59	40	+19	-1.2	+17.8
Robbie Beran	21	43	39	+4	+3.1	+7.1
Julian Roper	24	47	40	+7	+0.3	+7.3
Ryan Greer	23	39	31	+8	-1.3	+6.7
Ryan Young	10	20	17	+3	-0.1	+2.9
Elyjah Williams	8	11	6	+5	-0.1	+4.9
Ty Berry	20	34	28	+6	-4.7	+1.3
Chase Audige	30	55	57	-2	-7.0	-9.0
Casey Simmons	4	4	7	-3	-1.4	-4.4

Very strong games by Pete Nance and Boo Buie carried the team on Senior Night.
Minnesota basically played a 6 rotation.
Ty Berry was off. Chase Audige was quite bad in a game we won by 13 points. When Audige wasn't playing, we stomped Minnesota. When Audige was on the court we actually lost 57-55.
He is 23 for 83 from the floor over the last 8 games. Still waiting for Beran to get a try at small forward. Casey Simmons was ineffective in his 4 minutes.

The magic backcourt of Boo Buie and Ryan Greer had yet another good game. When they played together we beat on the Gophers 29-15 over about 13:20.
This was primarily the result of a 13-2 run over a 3:27 stretch when Ryan Young entered the game for the first time, with Beran and Berry.
That spiked the lead from 14-7 to 27-9 with 10:50 left in the half.

Collins promptly took Young out and started messing around with small lineups, using either Young or Nance with 4 guards (neither Beran nor Williams) and our momentum disappeared for the rest of the half. After 20 minutes it was 43-26.

Thankfully the 4 guards experiment was scrapped in the 2nd half.

Ryan Young did not play at all for the last 12 minutes, but it didn't matter.
NU is just more talented and deeper than Minnesota.

 

[Max_Power]

Player	Minutes	NU Pts	MIN Pts	Team +/-	Player Adjust	Net +/-
Pete Nance	29	53	45	+8	+12.3	+20.3
Boo Buie	27	59	40	+19	-1.2	+17.8
Robbie Beran	21	43	39	+4	+3.1	+7.1
Julian Roper	24	47	40	+7	+0.3	+7.3
Ryan Greer	23	39	31	+8	-1.3	+6.7
Ryan Young	10	20	17	+3	-0.1	+2.9
Elyjah Williams	8	11	6	+5	-0.1	+4.9
Ty Berry	20	34	28	+6	-4.7	+1.3
Chase Audige	30	55	57	-2	-7.0	-9.0
Casey Simmons	4	4	7	-3	-1.4	-4.4

Very strong games by Pete Nance and Boo Buie carried the team on Senior Night.
Minnesota basically played a 6 rotation.
Ty Berry was off. Chase Audige was quite bad in a game we won by 13 points. When Audige wasn't playing, we stomped Minnesota. When Audige was on the court we actually lost 57-55.
He is 23 for 83 from the floor over the last 8 games. Still waiting for Beran to get a try at small forward. Casey Simmons was ineffective in his 4 minutes.

The magic backcourt of Boo Buie and Ryan Greer had yet another good game. When they played together we beat on the Gophers 29-15 over about 13:20.
This was primarily the result of a 13-2 run over a 3:27 stretch when Ryan Young entered the game for the first time, with Beran and Berry.
That spiked the lead from 14-7 to 27-9 with 10:50 left in the half.

Collins promptly took Young out and started messing around with small lineups, using either Young or Nance with 4 guards (neither Beran nor Williams) and our momentum disappeared for the rest of the half. After 20 minutes it was 43-26.

Thankfully the 4 guards experiment was scrapped in the 2nd half.

Ryan Young did not play at all for the last 12 minutes, but it didn't matter.
NU is just more talented and deeper than Minnesota.

He played 4 guards bc both Beran and Williams had 2 fouls. It was not an experiment but necessary driven by game situations.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

He played 4 guards bc both Beran and Williams had 2 fouls. It was not an experiment but necessary driven by game situations.

Don’t worry, these +/- criticize the moves even after easy wins. Did Nicholson play?

 

[NUCat320]

I thought it was interesting that Boo went to the bench for Greer’s ceremonial start. (Audige’s numbers look even worse without those three minutes.)

 

[GatoLouco]

1) What was done to RY this season is borderline criminal - if you don't think it is, well, 7-13
2) At this stage, it is mind boggling how bad Audige's decision making, and self awareness, are

 

[catcrazy]

Yeah I don’t get the love for Audige. Great defensive player but offensively suspect. Looks like RY will be our starting center next year with Nance moving on. What is the gut on him transferring versus going pro. I think his role will be less if he goes to a higher profile program. There is plenty of tape on him. I just wish he had more of a killer instinct because if he did we may have been tournament bound

 

[PURPLECAT88]

Yeah I don’t get the love for Audige. Great defensive player but offensively suspect. Looks like RY will be our starting center next year with Nance moving on. What is the gut on him transferring versus going pro. I think his role will be less if he goes to a higher profile program. There is plenty of tape on him. I just wish he had more of a killer instinct because if he did we may have been tournament bound

As Chase's biggest supporter on these boards (low bar, I know), I'll explain my love for him. Early in the season he fought through what looked like a very painful back or hip injury. I sit near the bench, and you could see what he was going through. He never takes a play off on defense or on offense. His shot was not falling for much of this year, but he never lost his confidence. He forced too many shots early in the B1G season, but more recently he's taken fewer and better shots. He's still missing them, which is frustrating, but he hasn't let that bother his defense, his rebounding or (from my vantage point) his relationship with his teammates.

Chase took a big chance stepping up from W & M and sitting out a year to play for our beloved Cats. He could have very easily gone into a shell early this year following the injury and the very public criticism from BTN broadcasters, but other than miss a few shots, he's done nothing but honor the uniform and work hard for all of us. That's where the love comes from.

 

[NUCat320]

Yeah I don’t get the love for Audige. Great defensive player but offensively suspect. Looks like RY will be our starting center next year with Nance moving on. What is the gut on him transferring versus going pro. I think his role will be less if he goes to a higher profile program. There is plenty of tape on him. I just wish he had more of a killer instinct because if he did we may have been tournament bound

I’m not sure there’s a lot of love for him, honestly, but he’d be a real real good player for NU if he had better self-control with regard to shot selection.

 

[Sec.112]

As Chase's biggest supporter on these boards (low bar, I know), I'll explain my love for him. Early in the season he fought through what looked like a very painful back or hip injury. I sit near the bench, and you could see what he was going through. He never takes a play off on defense or one offense. His shot was not falling for much of this year, but he never lost his confidence. He forced too many shots early in the B1G season, but more recently he's taken fewer and better shots. He's still missing them, which is frustrating, but he hasn't let that bother his defense, his rebounding or (from my vantage point) his relationship with his teammates.

Chase took a big chance stepping up from W & M and sitting out a year to play for our beloved Cats. He could have very easily gone into a shell early this year following the injury and the very public criticism from BTN broadcasters, but other than miss a few shots, he's done nothing but honor the uniform and work hard for all of us. That's where the love comes from.

That's a great reply, PurpleCat! I really hate his game at this point and, unfortunately, I cringe when he gets ready to shoot. But I agree with you about how hard he works and what he's gone through this year. Was it the Wisconsin game where he was practically diving for the heat pad on his back during every time out? Not to mention leg cramps he started to develop duing the game also.

I really hope he can find that difference in his game in the off season.

Anyhow, thanks for the spirit of your post.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

He played 4 guards bc both Beran and Williams had 2 fouls. It was not an experiment but necessary driven by game situations.

Ryan Young was perfectly willing and able to play.
"Young and Nance" in the frontcourt or "Nance and Simmons/Roper"
Which lineup is better?

Its a rhetorical question.
The correct answer is absolutely obvious.

 

[Sec.112]

The official +- stats ...

Pete Nance 10
Boo Buie 21
Robbie Beran 6
Julian Roper 5
Ryan Greer 12
Ryan Young 3
Elyjah Williams 4
Ty Berry 6
Chase Audige -3
Casey Simmons 1

 

[lunker35]

Ryan Young with 10 minutes is criminal. It really boggles my mind on how under utilized he is. He’s 8th on the team in minutes yet is second in rebounds and fourth in scoring.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Ryan Young with 10 minutes is criminal. It really boggles my mind on how under utilized he is. He’s 8th on the team in minutes yet is second in rebounds and fourth in scoring.

How is his overall defense? Where does he rank on the team as a defender? Are there defensive stats that are reliable?

RY is a fine player, but I don’t think it is as clear cut as some do. I would play him more, but that is because we have exactly two other offensive weapons and RY can score.

 

[SDakaGordie]

As Chase's biggest supporter on these boards (low bar, I know), I'll explain my love for him. Early in the season he fought through what looked like a very painful back or hip injury. I sit near the bench, and you could see what he was going through. He never takes a play off on defense or on offense. His shot was not falling for much of this year, but he never lost his confidence. He forced too many shots early in the B1G season, but more recently he's taken fewer and better shots. He's still missing them, which is frustrating, but he hasn't let that bother his defense, his rebounding or (from my vantage point) his relationship with his teammates.

Chase took a big chance stepping up from W & M and sitting out a year to play for our beloved Cats. He could have very easily gone into a shell early this year following the injury and the very public criticism from BTN broadcasters, but other than miss a few shots, he's done nothing but honor the uniform and work hard for all of us. That's where the love comes from.

That multiple effort / putback layup he converted was sheer effort and talent.

 

[clarificationcat]

How is his overall defense? Where does he rank on the team as a defender? Are there defensive stats that are reliable?

RY is a fine player, but I don’t think it is as clear cut as some do. I would play him more, but that is because we have exactly two other offensive weapons and RY can score.

Scouting Report on Ryan Young. He is very effective scorer against teams without a good post defender. He's a good offensive rebounder and an average defensive rebounder (he and Beran are almost the same as defensive rebounders). He's our best post defender but is limited against better big men because of his size and explosiveness. His free throw shooting has reverted to his first year and that makes him less effective overall since he's not able to finish shots at the basket when he is fouled. He's not a good help defender and he's a very poor rim protector (.3 blocks a game as our center). Beran averages twice as many steals and blocks. I think the opposing scouting report is that when he's in the game drive to the rim as much as possible and don't worry about getting your shot blocked or altered. He also has a negative assist to turnover ratio. As much as people criticize Buie (1.7 in 29 minutes) and Audige (1.4 in 24 minutes), Young turns the ball over more than anybody on the team (1.2 in 17 minutes). In the first Illinois loss, he was 0 for 6 from the field. In the second Illinois loss he was 2 for 4 from the field but 3 for 7 from the line. In the Purdue games he was 3 for 7 and 3 for 8 from the field. In the last 10 minutes of the Wisconsin game, we went to him 5 or 6 times in the last 10 minutes and he produced 1 point. He's a solid rotation player on a decent team who should probably get between 18 and 24 minutes a game depending on circumstances. He's a great student and I really hope he comes back. But the notion that we would be 12-8 in the conference if only he had played more is a big reach in my opinion.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Scouting Report on Ryan Young. He is very effective scorer against teams without a good post defender. He's a good offensive rebounder and an average defensive rebounder (he and Beran are almost the same as defensive rebounders). He's our best post defender but is limited against better big men because of his size and explosiveness. His free throw shooting has reverted to his first year and that makes him less effective overall since he's not able to finish shots at the basket when he is fouled. He's not a good help defender and he's a very poor rim protector (.3 blocks a game as our center). Beran averages twice as many steals and blocks. I think the opposing scouting report is that when he's in the game drive to the rim as much as possible and don't worry about getting your shot blocked or altered. He also has a negative assist to turnover ratio. As much as people criticize Buie (1.7 in 29 minutes) and Audige (1.4 in 24 minutes), Young turns the ball over more than anybody on the team (1.2 in 17 minutes). In the first Illinois loss, he was 0 for 6 from the field. In the second Illinois loss he was 2 for 4 from the field but 3 for 7 from the line. In the Purdue games he was 3 for 7 and 3 for 8 from the field. In the last 10 minutes of the Wisconsin game, we went to him 5 or 6 times in the last 10 minutes and he produced 1 point. He's a solid rotation player on a decent team who should probably get between 18 and 24 minutes a game depending on circumstances. He's a great student and I really hope he comes back. But the notion that we would be 12-8 in the conference if only he had played more is a big reach in my opinion.

Agree. I also believe he is very valuable but at the end of the day he is what he is. A good piece that helps but has limitations. Certainly, appears to have a good attitude and plays his role. I hope he returns.

 

[EagerFan]

I love Chase's hustle, but yeah he (and Boo) love to go for a 'dagger' type of three and both tend to jack up a couple of just terrible, off balance, too deep shots without squaring up and doing any of the things that make those shots workable.

And then we get the Chase who pulled off that heavily contested layup in the second half. Where is that move and how do we get more?

 

[Hungry Jack]

I am sure Nicholson is improving immensely by watching from the bench.

 

[lunker35]

How is his overall defense? Where does he rank on the team as a defender? Are there defensive stats that are reliable?

RY is a fine player, but I don’t think it is as clear cut as some do. I would play him more, but that is because we have exactly two other offensive weapons and RY can score.

We’ve seen B1G centers absolutely abuse Nance because he’s not a 5, whereas RY always holds his own. He limits the second chance baskets and does a nice job of battling most bigs in conference. He’s far more capable that Nance when we’re talking about defending the 5.

 

[clarificationcat]

We’ve seen B1G centers absolutely abuse Nance because he’s not a 5, whereas RY always holds his own. He limits the second chance baskets and does a nice job of battling most bigs in conference. He’s far more capable that Nance when we’re talking about defending the 5.

Agreed. But for teams that don't have a dominant 5, Nance and Beran are much better defensively than Nance and Young. There is only so much Young can do rotating out on shooters and defending the rim. There is so much pick and roll in basketball these days that bigs frequently end up guarding smaller players on the perimeter. And we give up a fair amount of easy points on drives and cuts to the basket when he is on the floor.

 

[GatoLouco]

Agreed. But for teams that don't have a dominant 5, Nance and Beran are much better defensively than Nance and Young.

So, MSU and maybe OSU? All others might not have dominant centers, but play with a big who is not going to kill you from distance.

The idea that Beran plays for defense is just to try to justify why he's left out there when his offensive production is so poor.

 

[DaCat]

If Young was able to hit the three in games as well as he does in practice he would be much more effective.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

These numbers don't tell the whole story, obviously, but here are the NU pts scored and allowed per 40 minutes, by player, in our 23 games against Power 5 opponents...

Player	Minutes	NU	Opponent	Net
Ryan Greer	444	70.41	67.35	+3.06
Boo Buie	692	69.96	69.85	+0.11
Elyjah Williams	259	68.86	62.99	+5.87
Pete Nance	625	70.56	71.14	-0.58
Ryan Young	399	64.57	67.48	-2.91
Chase Audige	556	69.15	71.67	-2.52
Robbie Beran	518	67.74	72.84	-5.10
Ty Berry	485	69.29	69.54	-0.25
Julian Roper	434	65.18	68.96	-3.77
Casey Simmons	177	62.34	70.47	-8.13

So our opponents score more freely against NU when Beran is playing.
These numbers are dependent on which guys are playing together.
When Young is playing and Nance is sitting, we tend to play slower, or a lower-scoring style.

But if you look specifically at comparative lineups...

Nance, Beran, Audige, Buie, Roper NU 183 Opponents 204 (65.05 - 72.51)
Nance, Young, Audige, Buie, Roper NU 23 Opponents 13 (70.14 - 39.64)

or

Nance, Beran, Audige, Buie, Berry NU 149 Opponents 136 (77.54 - 70.77)
Nance, Young, Audige, Buie, Berry NU 14 Opponents 6 (97.11 - 41.62)

it becomes clear that Young has gotten the short end of the stick regarding the guys he plays with.
For me this indicates a season-long missed opportunity.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

We’ve seen B1G centers absolutely abuse Nance because he’s not a 5, whereas RY always holds his own. He limits the second chance baskets and does a nice job of battling most bigs in conference. He’s far more capable that Nance when we’re talking about defending the 5.

Harrar destroyed Nance. Young got the better of Harrar.
Its only the monsters that Young cant handle (on either end of the floor).
Nance can only handle the worst centers in the league defensively.

 

[NUCat320]

These numbers don't tell the whole story, obviously, but here are the NU pts scored and allowed per 40 minutes, by player, in our 23 games against Power 5 opponents...

Player	Minutes	NU	Opponent	Net
Ryan Greer	444	70.41	67.35	+3.06
Boo Buie	692	69.96	69.85	+0.11
Elyjah Williams	259	68.86	62.99	+5.87
Pete Nance	625	70.56	71.14	-0.58
Ryan Young	399	64.57	67.48	-2.91
Chase Audige	556	69.15	71.67	-2.52
Robbie Beran	518	67.74	72.84	-5.10
Ty Berry	485	69.29	69.54	-0.25
Julian Roper	434	65.18	68.96	-3.77
Casey Simmons	177	62.34	70.47	-8.13

So our opponents score more freely against NU when Beran is playing.
These numbers are dependent on which guys are playing together.
When Young is playing and Nance is sitting, we tend to play slower, or a lower-scoring style.

But if you look specifically at comparative lineups...

Nance, Beran, Audige, Buie, Roper NU 183 Opponents 204 (65.05 - 72.51)
Nance, Young, Audige, Buie, Roper NU 23 Opponents 13 (70.14 - 39.64)

or

Nance, Beran, Audige, Buie, Roper NU 149 Opponents 136 (77.54 - 70.77)
Nance, Young, Audige, Buie, Roper NU 14 Opponents 6 (97.11 - 41.62)

it becomes clear that Young has gotten the short end of the stick regarding the guys he plays with.
For me this indicates a season-long missed opportunity.

The plan was Young as the star of the ‘second unit’, which typically meant no more than two other starters. And the offense was a Young-centric offense — an inside-out game only ever played when he was out there.

It really makes no sense. Tough to succeed with one scorer on the court, especially if you’re the one scorer.

 

[GatoLouco]

Harrar destroyed Nance. Young got the better of Harrar.
Its only the monsters that Young cant handle (on either end of the floor).
Nance can only handle the worst centers in the league defensively.

Young can’t hang with Edey/Williams/Kofi/Dickinson, or when on Liddell. He should be embarrassed

 

[clarificationcat]

So, MSU and maybe OSU? All others might not have dominant centers, but play with a big who is not going to kill you from distance.

The idea that Beran plays for defense is just to try to justify why he's left out there when his offensive production is so poor.

In those cases, Nance is more effective on offense as a 5. He's not very effective with his back to the basket and is better playing outside against less mobile 5s. He's a good 3-point shooter and, like last night, more effective facing the basket or posting up on mismatches when the defense has to switch on ball screens. Beran is clearly a better perimeter defender and help defender than Young. Nance can guard the non-dominant 5 and draw him away from the basket on offense. Beran can guard the 4 more effectively than Young. He's a pretty good defender. Certainly more active than Young (twice as many steals and blocks). As I said, if Beran is not being assertive, pull him and get Williams or Young in there. I am fine with that.

I do think it's kind of funny how beloved Sanjay Lumpkin is on this board and how disliked Beran is. I thought Lumpkin was a very effective player in his last season and a big part of the tournament team. Here are Lumpkin's stats in his 4th year (missed most of his 1st year) and Beran's in his 3rd year. Lumpkin was a better offensive rebounder and had a lot more assists but Beran scores more and has more steals and twice as many blocks in slightly fewer minutes. Like I said, I like Lumpkin and I know he brought toughness and did a lot of little things. But you can't fully explain the love and the hate looking at the numbers.

32

32

23.7

1.3-2.7

48.8

0.4-1.1

36.1

0.8-1.2

68.4

1.4

3.6

5.0

1.3

0.3

0.5

2.9

1.1

3.8

29

28

22.4

2.3-5.1

46.3

1.0-2.7

36.4

0.7-0.9

76.9

1.0

3.4

4.3

0.7

0.7

0.7

2.4

0.7

6.3

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Agreed. But for teams that don't have a dominant 5, Nance and Beran are much better defensively than Nance and Young. There is only so much Young can do rotating out on shooters and defending the rim. There is so much pick and roll in basketball these days that bigs frequently end up guarding smaller players on the perimeter. And we give up a fair amount of easy points on drives and cuts to the basket when he is on the floor.

This is what I see too. I guess I am watching a different game than some on here. I agree that we struggle mightily which any switching when RY is in the game. There are guys getting to the rim all game against NU. A lot of time they are easily getting around RY. Some act like we are in a man to man the entire game. Comparing RY to PN’s interior defense is not the question. Neither are good, but Pete and Beran can switch on rubs. If you are going to stay 12 feet or less from the hoop, you need to actually be able to alter shots of you know smaller players coming right at you.

I hate pointing out the drawbacks of our players. I agree with the people that say RY should have played more throughout the year. His offenses is too good, especially for a team that is offensively challenged. I too would definitely tried him more with Pete, but I have no illusions that this would have solved our defensive struggles.

 

[IGNORE2]

He played 4 guards bc both Beran and Williams had 2 fouls. It was not an experiment but necessary driven by game situations.

In a blowout, at the time, sliding nance to the 4 and throwing a few minutes at MN… I know - dead horse - hopefully dead coach walking too

 

[IGNORE2]

How is his overall defense? Where does he rank on the team as a defender? Are there defensive stats that are reliable?

you’re so right. Young would have probably cost us all those close wins this season. If he was played more, we probably wouldn’t be sitting so pretty heading into the post season. CCC is quite wise to be factoring the overall team performance over the low hanging obvious fruit that might have saved his job and the season. Whew - glad we talked this one out.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

you’re so right. Young would have probably cost us all those close wins this season. If he was played more, we probably wouldn’t be sitting so pretty heading into the post season. CCC is quite wise to be factoring the overall team performance over the low hanging obvious fruit that might have saved his job and the season. Whew - glad we talked this one out.

Nice deflect Bob. Where did I say CCC was wise to sit him? What do you expect I guess from a guy who admits he hasn’t gone to a game or watched any? How about you answer a question or once? Too tough for you?

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

In those cases, Nance is more effective on offense as a 5. He's not very effective with his back to the basket and is better playing outside against less mobile 5s. He's a good 3-point shooter and, like last night, more effective facing the basket or posting up on mismatches when the defense has to switch on ball screens. Beran is clearly a better perimeter defender and help defender than Young. Nance can guard the non-dominant 5 and draw him away from the basket on offense. Beran can guard the 4 more effectively than Young. He's a pretty good defender. Certainly more active than Young (twice as many steals and blocks). As I said, if Beran is not being assertive, pull him and get Williams or Young in there. I am fine with that.

I do think it's kind of funny how beloved Sanjay Lumpkin is on this board and how disliked Beran is. I thought Lumpkin was a very effective player in his last season and a big part of the tournament team. Here are Lumpkin's stats in his 4th year (missed most of his 1st year) and Beran's in his 3rd year. Lumpkin was a better offensive rebounder and had a lot more assists but Beran scores more and has more steals and twice as many blocks in slightly fewer minutes. Like I said, I like Lumpkin and I know he brought toughness and did a lot of little things. But you can't fully explain the love and the hate looking at the numbers.

32

32

23.7

1.3-2.7

48.8

0.4-1.1

36.1

0.8-1.2

68.4

1.4

3.6

5.0

1.3

0.3

0.5

2.9

1.1

3.8

29

28

22.4

2.3-5.1

46.3

1.0-2.7

36.4

0.7-0.9

76.9

1.0

3.4

4.3

0.7

0.7

0.7

2.4

0.7

6.3

Can you put headers on the columns?

From a Plus/Minus perspective, Lumpkin was +46. Beran is -66.
Lumpkin was a leader, motivator and stabilizing factor. Beran is none of those.

They're fairly different players actually.

 

[Dugan15]

As Chase's biggest supporter on these boards (low bar, I know), I'll explain my love for him. Early in the season he fought through what looked like a very painful back or hip injury. I sit near the bench, and you could see what he was going through. He never takes a play off on defense or on offense. His shot was not falling for much of this year, but he never lost his confidence. He forced too many shots early in the B1G season, but more recently he's taken fewer and better shots. He's still missing them, which is frustrating, but he hasn't let that bother his defense, his rebounding or (from my vantage point) his relationship with his teammates.

Chase took a big chance stepping up from W & M and sitting out a year to play for our beloved Cats. He could have very easily gone into a shell early this year following the injury and the very public criticism from BTN broadcasters, but other than miss a few shots, he's done nothing but honor the uniform and work hard for all of us. That's where the love comes from.

PurpleCat88: Thanks for this post. I have been extremely frustrated at times. But, this provides necessary perspective.

 

[ThatkidfromHolland]

In those cases, Nance is more effective on offense as a 5. He's not very effective with his back to the basket and is better playing outside against less mobile 5s. He's a good 3-point shooter and, like last night, more effective facing the basket or posting up on mismatches when the defense has to switch on ball screens. Beran is clearly a better perimeter defender and help defender than Young. Nance can guard the non-dominant 5 and draw him away from the basket on offense. Beran can guard the 4 more effectively than Young. He's a pretty good defender. Certainly more active than Young (twice as many steals and blocks). As I said, if Beran is not being assertive, pull him and get Williams or Young in there. I am fine with that.

I do think it's kind of funny how beloved Sanjay Lumpkin is on this board and how disliked Beran is. I thought Lumpkin was a very effective player in his last season and a big part of the tournament team. Here are Lumpkin's stats in his 4th year (missed most of his 1st year) and Beran's in his 3rd year. Lumpkin was a better offensive rebounder and had a lot more assists but Beran scores more and has more steals and twice as many blocks in slightly fewer minutes. Like I said, I like Lumpkin and I know he brought toughness and did a lot of little things. But you can't fully explain the love and the hate looking at the numbers.

32

32

23.7

1.3-2.7

48.8

0.4-1.1

36.1

0.8-1.2

68.4

1.4

3.6

5.0

1.3

0.3

0.5

2.9

1.1

3.8

29

28

22.4

2.3-5.1

46.3

1.0-2.7

36.4

0.7-0.9

76.9

1.0

3.4

4.3

0.7

0.7

0.7

2.4

0.7

6.3

Lumpkin wasn’t so beloved till after he was done playing. He was often referred to as 4 v 5 offensively. He did a lot of little things offensively I tried arguing at the time between screens, rebounding, and off ball movement. Smart player.

Beran has much more offensive upside. Not as high bball IQ. (Not a knock lumpkin was extremely solid with his decisions. Especially defensively. Look at the game vs Happ) He needs to be more aggressive but he is a pretty darn good defender and shot blocker. 2nd best help defender behind Nance. Decent on the D boards. I’d like to see him create mismatches offensively but for some reason or another he’s not there yet.

Very different play styles and ceilings/floors. Imo.

This board tends to pay attention to offense mostly. It’s one of the reasons Young is loved. His game really plays well to the stat sheet. He scores and gets boards. Good player. Poor defender. As for plus minus stats, it helps when you go against the opponents bench. I hope he returns next year. Should start. Needs to limit his turnovers to maximize his offensive output.

Collins plays defense. Always has. That’s why Young sits and Beran plays. I’m not defending it or bashing it. Just what I think the rationale is. Young is an excellent role player. He doesn’t start on most B1G teams. He should get min at a lot of them though. Very happy he is at NU. Look forward to him next year.

 

[ricko654321]

Lumpkin wasn’t so beloved till after he was done playing. He was often referred to as 4 v 5 offensively. He did a lot of little things offensively I tried arguing at the time between screens, rebounding, and off ball movement. Smart player.

Beran has much more offensive upside. Not as high bball IQ. (Not a knock lumpkin was extremely solid with his decisions. Especially defensively. Look at the game vs Happ) He needs to be more aggressive but he is a pretty darn good defender and shot blocker. 2nd best help defender behind Nance. Decent on the D boards. I’d like to see him create mismatches offensively but for some reason or another he’s not there yet.

Very different play styles and ceilings/floors. Imo.

This board tends to pay attention to offense mostly. It’s one of the reasons Young is loved. His game really plays well to the stat sheet. He scores and gets boards. Good player. Poor defender. As for plus minus stats, it helps when you go against the opponents bench. I hope he returns next year. Should start. Needs to limit his turnovers to maximize his offensive output.

Collins plays defense. Always has. That’s why Young sits and Beran plays. I’m not defending it or bashing it. Just what I think the rationale is. Young is an excellent role player. He doesn’t start on most B1G teams. He should get min at a lot of them though. Very happy he is at NU. Look forward to him next year.

Yeah I really agree with all of this. The only other thing I'd add for RY is that his usage rate when he's in is quite high - he accumulates more points because he gets the ball a lot, but his efficiency is probably slightly above average rather than significantly so. He does have a high FG% (55%, at 3.3-6.0 per game), but the turnover rate (1.2 per game) eats into that. When you add in FTs (2.3-3.3 per game, 68%), trying to do a modified eFG to account for turnovers I end up at 4.45 "2pt equivalents" per 8.85 possessions where his action decides the possession. At 50% that's still pretty decent- better than our offense overall I'm almost certain (per KenPom we are at 107.3 adj O per 100 possessions, but that includes offensive rebounds which my math does not) - though RY's minutes are majority against backups.

In conclusion I agree with everything Holland said above - RY has been a very solid contributor for us this year, I can see a case to use him more, but like any player on our team there are pros and cons.

PS- Incidentally thinking through that calculation above, I'd suspect that Greer and Nance are going to be up near the top for us. Ty Berry might also be up there, though I think that's a bit less fair as his shots are largely high EV shots (open or lightly contested 3's) that often get created by drive and kick players from others on the team. Maybe I'll try to run the numbers for the rest of the team later. Also worth noting that it does not account for assists in any way (or degree of difficulty on shots, sometimes by necessity late in shot clock), so would undervalue contribution from someone like Buie.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

There seems to be a questionable belief that Young mostly plays against backups. Show that evidence, please.

What is certain is that Young does not get enough minutes with NU's best players (at the same time).
Also certain is that he is a better rebounder than anybody on the team not named Nicholson.
Not shown by the stats, but a fact nonetheless, Young is also better at neutralizing the opponents big guy on the boards.

Unless you aren't watching closely, you've seen Young handle most Big Ten centers on the defensive glass, while half of those same guys destroy Nance. (We all know Young can't handle the two monsters, Edey and Cockburn)

 

[ricko654321]

There seems to be a questionable belief that Young mostly plays against backups. Show that evidence, please.

What is certain is that Young does not get enough minutes with NU's best players (at the same time).
Also certain is that he is a better rebounder than anybody on the team not named Nicholson.
Not shown by the stats, but a fact nonetheless, Young is also better at neutralizing the opponents big guy on the boards.

Unless you aren't watching closely, you've seen Young handle most Big Ten centers on the defensive glass, while half of those same guys destroy Nance. (We all know Young can't handle the two monsters, Edey and Cockburn)

He doesn't start. Typically other teams' starters are the players who start the games. He tends to come in and play in the middle to late stages of the first half, then with the second unit in the 2nd half (again, typically opponents also start their starters at the beginning of the 2H), then it is game dependent / rare that he plays down the stretch. Those periods are typically times when other teams have fewer of their own starters in. I have not proved this by going game by game through the box scores, it is an intuitive observation of mine based on watching the games.

 

[NUCat320]

He doesn't start. Typically other teams' starters are the players who start the games. He tends to come in and play in the middle to late stages of the first half, then with the second unit in the 2nd half (again, typically opponents also start their starters at the beginning of the 2H), then it is game dependent / rare that he plays down the stretch. Those periods are typically times when other teams have fewer of their own starters in. I have not proved this by going game by game through the box scores, it is an intuitive observation of mine based on watching the games.

The typical pattern was Young replacing Nance before the first media timeout, and then playing the bulk of the next four minutes. Generally, NU goes to the bench earlier than the opponent. After that, there was no pattern.

 

[FeralFelidae]

Imagine if Young and Nance played more minutes on the court together at the same time.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Imagine if Young and Nance played more minutes on the court together at the same time.

What amazes me is that everybody agrees that Nance is undersized to be playing center and acknowledges that he is an excellent shooter from 3 and really anywhere. Most acknowledge that his length makes him a good help defender and decent rebounder.

Young is a better rebounder and interior defender than Nance, with footspeed and jumping limitations, who doesn't shoot from beyond 10 feet with any success.

They complement each other very well as their skill sets are quite different.

And yet the coach doesn't see it.