SEC struggling

[Hungry Jack]

Now I've been happy lately
Thinking about the good things to come
And I believe it could be
Something good has begun
I've been smiling lately
Dreaming about the world as one
And I believe it could be
Something good's bound to come
For out on the edge of darkness
There runs the peace train
Peace train take this country
Come take me home again
Peace train sounding louder
Ride on the peace train
Hoo-ah-eeh-ah-hoo-ah
Come on the peace train
Peace train's a holy roller
Everyone jump upon the peace train
Hoo-ah-eeh-ah-hoo-ah
This is the peace train
Get your bags together
Come bring your good friends too
Because it's getting nearer
Soon it will be with you
Come and join the living
It's not so far from you
And it's getting nearer
Soon it will all be true

 

[NUCat320]

Now I've been happy lately
Thinking about the good things to come
And I believe it could be
Something good has begun
I've been smiling lately
Dreaming about the world as one
And I believe it could be
Something good's bound to come
For out on the edge of darkness
There runs the peace train
Peace train take this country
Come take me home again
Peace train sounding louder
Ride on the peace train
Hoo-ah-eeh-ah-hoo-ah
Come on the peace train
Peace train's a holy roller
Everyone jump upon the peace train
Hoo-ah-eeh-ah-hoo-ah
This is the peace train
Get your bags together
Come bring your good friends too
Because it's getting nearer
Soon it will be with you
Come and join the living
It's not so far from you
And it's getting nearer
Soon it will all be true

How does Radical Islamic terrorist Cat Stevens relate to SEC football at all? Pipe down, hippie.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

While we have all these B1G-SEC conversations, the ACC is having itself a good bowl season. If Clemson beats Ohio State, which is entirely possible, I think they've earned the right to crow a little bit. Interesting that both the B1G's wins so far come from the much-derided Western Division of the conference.

Man, you are right. They're 7-3 in bowls so far. That's a lot better than the SEC's 4-5 or the B10's 2-4 to date. They were 12-8 against OOC Power 5 opponents in the regular season, too (though a significant percentage of that was beating up on punching bag Notre Dame).

So yeah, they could end up getting the nod as best P5 conference of 2016...we'll see how their champion does in the playoffs, of course.

 

[pawildcat]

Man, you are right. They're 7-3 in bowls so far. That's a lot better than the SEC's 4-5 or the B10's 2-4 to date. They were 12-8 against OOC Power 5 opponents in the regular season, too (though a significant percentage of that was beating up on punching bag Notre Dame).

So yeah, they could end up getting the nod as best P5 conference of 2016...we'll see how their champion does in the playoffs, of course.

I think the B1G had a very well-balanced league this year and top to bottom could compete against any other league, but there weren't really any super teams a la Alabama or the Ohio State team of the past couple of years. The top teams all have one issue or another: Penn State (so-so offensive line), Ohio State (very youthful and average passing game), Michigan (average QB play and not great team speed, especially with Peppers out yesterday), Wisconsin (stout defense, but average offense) etc. Problem was, getting four teams into big bowls meant the league is facing a bunch of top 15 and top 25 teams without being a clear favorite against any of them. Boston College was probably the only really pedestrian team the B1G faces during this bowl season, and it was no surprise they beat a Maryland team that went 3-6 in the B1G with some huge losses. We're 2-4 so far, but actually the one game in which the league was a slight favorite (Michigan-FSU) is one of the losses. Without mild upsets by Northwestern and Minnesota, the B1G easily could be 0-6 and enduring the usual catcalls from the national media. The reshuffling of bowl matchups a couple of years back was supposed to end the era of lower-tier B1G teams constantly having to punch above their weight in the bowls, but that doesn't seem to be happening.

 

[Catslash]

In the words of Lee Corso "not so fast" Big stinking it up in the big bowls

 

[Wrestlerneverdiesasacatfan]

Ohio state is getting spanked

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Well, that caveat I mentioned about unexpected outcomes...they're happening. Michigan and Ohio State both losing in games they were favored to win.

So it's looking more and more like the B10 will not have a great bowl season, even if Iowa, Wisconsin, and Penn State finish strong. That would be a 5-5 result. Roughly the same W/L percentage the SEC seems likely to finish with.

Appears the ACC will have the strongest claim to best Power 5 conference of 2016, even with Louisville imploding at the end, and you guys showing Pitt what-for.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

So it turns out maybe this thread was started a bit prematurely. Can be embarrassing, that.

Looks like the ACC are the darlings of the 2016 season, esp. if Clemson finds a way to knock off Bama. Paradoxically, Bama beating Clemson would not do nearly as much for the reputation of the SEC; they're seen as a one-off.

Power 5 bowl results as of right now:

1. ACC: 8-4 (67%), could go 9-4 (69%) or 8-5 (62%)
2. B12: 4-2 (67%)
3. SEC: 7-6 (54%), could go 8-6 (57%) or 7-7 (50%)
4. PAC: 3-3 (50%)
5. B10: 3-7 (30%)

The B12 has as good a win % as the ACC, but there's something to be said for being able to get 12 of 14 teams into bowls, then STILL winning two-thirds of your games. B12 only got about half their teams above that initial hurdle, so their performance as a conference is significantly weaker in spite of going 4-2.

So definitely the ACC on top, and the B10 on bottom (in spite of the Cats' strong performance). The latter is surprising, given how well the B10 did in the regular season: 8-4 (67%) against Power 5 foes, 32-10 (76%) versus all OOC opponents. Those metrics are both best among Power 5 conferences.

So from best Sep-Nov, to worst Dec-Jan. Like I said, surprising. No idea why it played out that way, you guys probably have a much better feel for it.

 

[Hungry Jack]

The B1G pretty much crapped the bed, especially in the marquee games (OSU, UM, PSU). I don't think the matchups were great for the B1G teams, as Ioa, Nebby, Indiana, and the Cats were all unranked teams playing ranked teams. We all knew Nebby would struggle without Armstrong (despite his flaws). The B1G QB play in most of the games was pretty abysmal.

 

[gocatsgo2003]

The B1G pretty much crapped the bed, especially in the marquee games (OSU, UM, PSU). I don't think the matchups were great for the B1G teams, as Ioa, Nebby, Indiana, and the Cats were all unranked teams playing ranked teams. We all knew Nebby would struggle without Armstrong (despite his flaws). The B1G QB play in most of the games was pretty abysmal.

"Crapped the bed?" I guess that's one way to put "played in a bunch of close games and a few clunkers."

Maryland, Indiana, Michigan, and Penn State all lost one-score games while Wisconsin, NU, and Minnesota all won one-score games. Not sure who besides OSU and Iowa could really be said to have "crapped the bed." Even then, it was pretty clear Florida was going to be a tough matchup for Iowa.

 

[EvanstonCat]

So it turns out maybe this thread was started a bit prematurely. Can be embarrassing, that.

Looks like the ACC are the darlings of the 2016 season, esp. if Clemson finds a way to knock off Bama. Paradoxically, Bama beating Clemson would not do nearly as much for the reputation of the SEC; they're seen as a one-off.

Power 5 bowl results as of right now:

1. ACC: 8-4 (67%), could go 9-4 (69%) or 8-5 (62%)
2. B12: 4-2 (67%)
3. SEC: 7-6 (54%), could go 8-6 (57%) or 7-7 (50%)
4. PAC: 3-3 (50%)
5. B10: 3-7 (30%)

The B12 has as good a win % as the ACC, but there's something to be said for being able to get 12 of 14 teams into bowls, then STILL winning two-thirds of your games. B12 only got about half their teams above that initial hurdle, so their performance as a conference is significantly weaker in spite of going 4-2.

So definitely the ACC on top, and the B10 on bottom (in spite of the Cats' strong performance). The latter is surprising, given how well the B10 did in the regular season: 8-4 (67%) against Power 5 foes, 32-10 (76%) versus all OOC opponents. Those metrics are both best among Power 5 conferences.

So from best Sep-Nov, to worst Dec-Jan. Like I said, surprising. No idea why it played out that way, you guys probably have a much better feel for it.

The Ohio State game was a surprise, albeit a pleasant one my Buck hating eyes.

Other than that, Michigan and PSU were games that just as easily and probably should have been won, and there were a couple other close ones including IU against a ranked Utah and a Maryland team going to the wire against BC.

So, quite close actually being 7-3.

Then consider we had 4 in the NY6. That means we are stacked dpwn 1 or 2 games in each subsequent boll. Having Iowa for instance play the SEC East Champions isn't exactly a fair match up.

Likewise, IU against #17 ranked Utah? Almost beating them for that matter.
And then there's NU who everyone thought would get crushed by #23 Pitt. Well, I guess that didn't really happen, but it goes to my point.

Nevermind, that we played essentially road games in all of these except for NU vs. Pitt. Take the 3 points the other way, and again we go 7-3.

 

[Hungry Jack]

"Crapped the bed?" I guess that's one way to put "played in a bunch of close games and a few clunkers."

Maryland, Indiana, Michigan, and Penn State all lost one-score games while Wisconsin, NU, and Minnesota all won one-score games. Not sure who besides OSU and Iowa could really be said to have "crapped the bed." Even then, it was pretty clear Florida was going to be a tough matchup for Iowa.

I'd posit that most games are close, and the difference is the ability to make plays. PSU squandered a 2 TD late in the fourth quarter, and then executed a horrid final series to enable USC. I did not watch OSU, but my take is that they are a very young team that just was not ready for that level of play. UM did great to battle back and take the lead, then their special teams struck again.

So yes, the marquee games revealed new and exciting ways to lose games. I give OSU a pass because they are very young. But UM and PSU lost largely due to self inflicted wounds.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Here are a couple of interesting statistics about the 2016 season:

• Only 7 teams in all of FBS have fewer than 3 losses. Crazy low, compared to most years.*
• Every Power 5 conference has only one team with fewer than 3 losses.

This has been a season for the muddy middle...everyone dragged (just about) everyone else down into the dirt and we all wrestled around down there.




* Avg this century ('00 to '15) is about 12 FBS teams w/ two or fewer losses on the season. 2012 saw 16 of them; 2007 and 2014 had just 9. This year's 7 is a record low for as long as I've been keeping track of the stat.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

I'd posit that most games are close, and the difference is the ability to make plays. PSU squandered a 2 TD late in the fourth quarter, and then executed a horrid final series to enable USC. I did not watch OSU, but my take is that they are a very young team that just was not ready for that level of play. UM did great to battle back and take the lead, then their special teams struck again.

So yes, the marquee games revealed new and exciting ways to lose games. I give OSU a pass because they are very young. But UM and PSU lost largely due to self inflicted wounds.

I watched the OSU-Clemson game, Jack. It was amazing how outclassed the Buckeyes looked. It was even worse than the (really lopsided) score, if you can believe that. I was shocked that was Urban Meyer standing on the sideline, never seen a team he coached look that out of place on a football field.

Guess the young kids were just there for the swag and party. They sure weren't there to play a game.

 

[Hungry Jack]

I watched the OSU-Clemson game, Jack. It was amazing how outclassed the Buckeyes looked. It was even worse than the (really lopsided) score, if you can believe that. I was shocked that was Urban Meyer standing on the sideline, never seen a team he coached look that out of place on a football field.

Guess the young kids were just there for the swag and party. They sure weren't there to play a game.

That team has something like 44 freshmen/ RS freshman. They lost a ton of starters to the draft last spring. The fact that they made the playoff is a credit to Meyer and his staff. But they just are not ready to compete with the heavies right now. I doubt the issue was focus or preparation. Just not seasoned enough.

Clemson has experience, especially at key positions (skill positions, secondary). If anyone can take down Bama, it will be them (that point is moot at this juncture obviously).

 

[LACatFan]

"Crapped the bed?" I guess that's one way to put "played in a bunch of close games and a few clunkers."

Maryland, Indiana, Michigan, and Penn State all lost one-score games while Wisconsin, NU, and Minnesota all won one-score games. Not sure who besides OSU and Iowa could really be said to have "crapped the bed." Even then, it was pretty clear Florida was going to be a tough matchup for Iowa.

That's fair. Of the Power Five conferences, though, only the B1G had more than one team lose their bowl game by 20 or more points. At the risk of taking the metaphor to the next level, poor tOSU and Iowa really crapped the bed and then rolled around in it.

 

[hdhntr1]

While we have all these B1G-SEC conversations, the ACC is having itself a good bowl season. If Clemson beats Ohio State, which is entirely possible, I think they've earned the right to crow a little bit. Interesting that both the B1G's wins so far come from the much-derided Western Division of the conference.

Make that all three of our wins

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

So it turns out maybe this thread was started a bit prematurely. Can be embarrassing, that.

Looks like the ACC are the darlings of the 2016 season, esp. if Clemson finds a way to knock off Bama. Paradoxically, Bama beating Clemson would not do nearly as much for the reputation of the SEC; they're seen as a one-off.

Power 5 bowl results as of right now:

1. ACC: 8-4 (67%), could go 9-4 (69%) or 8-5 (62%)
2. B12: 4-2 (67%)
3. SEC: 7-6 (54%), could go 8-6 (57%) or 7-7 (50%)
4. PAC: 3-3 (50%)
5. B10: 3-7 (30%)

The B12 has as good a win % as the ACC, but there's something to be said for being able to get 12 of 14 teams into bowls, then STILL winning two-thirds of your games. B12 only got about half their teams above that initial hurdle, so their performance as a conference is significantly weaker in spite of going 4-2.

So definitely the ACC on top, and the B10 on bottom (in spite of the Cats' strong performance). The latter is surprising, given how well the B10 did in the regular season: 8-4 (67%) against Power 5 foes, 32-10 (76%) versus all OOC opponents. Those metrics are both best among Power 5 conferences.

So from best Sep-Nov, to worst Dec-Jan. Like I said, surprising. No idea why it played out that way, you guys probably have a much better feel for it.

Hardly embarrassed JP and I'll stand by opinion that the SEC did not live up to ESPN's hype. Doubt many are surprised that FL knocked off an average Iowa team with a gimpy QB or LSU beat a Louisville team that packed it in a month ago or that your Vols won. At least I am not as I cashed a ticket on all three.

If the SEC fan base is going to trumpet their conference as vastly superior to everyone else, then you are going to have to do better than 500 in bowl games. I think the SEC was favored in all but 3 of the games. Auburn, A&M, Arkansas all played poorly. This a mid to top tier SEC teams, so roughly half of them lost too.

 

[hdhntr1]

So it turns out maybe this thread was started a bit prematurely. Can be embarrassing, that.

Looks like the ACC are the darlings of the 2016 season, esp. if Clemson finds a way to knock off Bama. Paradoxically, Bama beating Clemson would not do nearly as much for the reputation of the SEC; they're seen as a one-off.

Power 5 bowl results as of right now:

1. ACC: 8-4 (67%), could go 9-4 (69%) or 8-5 (62%)
2. B12: 4-2 (67%)
3. SEC: 7-6 (54%), could go 8-6 (57%) or 7-7 (50%)
4. PAC: 3-3 (50%)
5. B10: 3-7 (30%)

The B12 has as good a win % as the ACC, but there's something to be said for being able to get 12 of 14 teams into bowls, then STILL winning two-thirds of your games. B12 only got about half their teams above that initial hurdle, so their performance as a conference is significantly weaker in spite of going 4-2.

So definitely the ACC on top, and the B10 on bottom (in spite of the Cats' strong performance). The latter is surprising, given how well the B10 did in the regular season: 8-4 (67%) against Power 5 foes, 32-10 (76%) versus all OOC opponents. Those metrics are both best among Power 5 conferences.

So from best Sep-Nov, to worst Dec-Jan. Like I said, surprising. No idea why it played out that way, you guys probably have a much better feel for it.

One of the issues that the BIG always has is that we are typically traveling and facing another team in their backyard. They are basically home games for a number of our opponents. For example this year, Neb played TN in Nashville, Mich played Florida State in FL and IA played FL in FL. PSU played USC in the Rose Bowl (most unbalanced when we play USC or UCLA). All losses. These are just the most egregious, but it goes throughout the bowls. Add to that that the BIG is the only full time cold weather Power 5 conference and teams tend to be built differently to deal with the climate and win games in conference to get them to the bowls. Look at the bowls we won. Pinstripe in NYC, Cotton against another Midwest team and in San Diego against another team that had to travel. Those are neutral sites. But most are not. The issue is that while in the regular season, this thing sort of balances out year by year with home and home series, with bowls, it never balances out

 

[Hungry Jack]

Here are a couple of interesting statistics about the 2016 season:

• Only 7 teams in all of FBS have fewer than 3 losses. Crazy low, compared to most years.*
• Every Power 5 conference has only one team with fewer than 3 losses.

This has been a season for the muddy middle...everyone dragged (just about) everyone else down into the dirt and we all wrestled around down there.




* Avg this century ('00 to '15) is about 12 FBS teams w/ two or fewer losses on the season. 2012 saw 16 of them; 2007 and 2014 had just 9. This year's 7 is a record low for as long as I've been keeping track of the stat.

Have to wonder if more in conference games at the expense of OOC games is a factor. Also somewhat tighter rules on bowl eligibility.

Anecdotally, I sense that programs are taking wins and losses much more seriously nowadays due to financial impact. More coaches seem to be moving around (again, anecotal--historians please correct me). Recruiting has become its own industry with ratings sites (ie a consumer media business) , camps, bowl games, etc.generating fan interest (ie program scrutiny).

In other words, college football is behaving very much like a highly competitive industry where coaching talent is mobile and advantages are competed away.

 

[pawildcat]

Well, that caveat I mentioned about unexpected outcomes...they're happening. Michigan and Ohio State both losing in games they were favored to win.

So it's looking more and more like the B10 will not have a great bowl season, even if Iowa, Wisconsin, and Penn State finish strong. That would be a 5-5 result. Roughly the same W/L percentage the SEC seems likely to finish with.

Appears the ACC will have the strongest claim to best Power 5 conference of 2016, even with Louisville imploding at the end, and you guys showing Pitt what-for.

Most of us who've watched the league this year would not have favored Ohio State against Clemson. The only results of the 10 that really surprised me were the margin of Ohio State's defeat and actually our win against Pitt. It was not a good year for the B1G in bowls, but we faced off against eight top 25 teams, and I believe the highest total for any other league was four. Ran into you guys and Florida, who were about the only SEC East teams outside of Georgia with a pulse, and Nebraska was at a distinct disadvantage against the Vols without Armstrong, although I think Tennessee's talent probably still would have prevailed. At that, we were four points away from going 5-5 and winning three of the Big Six bowls. Top to bottom, I still think we could have stood up well to any league this year. I give the bowl crown to the ACC with three impressive wins — Clemson, Florida State and Miami's thrashing of West Virginia. If Clemson finds a way to beat the Tide, I think the ACC definitely gets league honors this year.

 

[stpaulcat]

Irony is fun.

In this case, about as fun as ironing.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

If the SEC fan base is going to trumpet their conference as vastly superior to everyone else, then you are going to have to do better than 500 in bowl games. I think the SEC was favored in all but 3 of the games.

*nod* I get it, Pile Driver. But I don't think anyone, anywhere, is touting the SEC as the top dog in 2016, much less vastly superior. The SEC stunk it up, relative to expectations, and pretty much everyone I know down here acknowledges it.

Having said that, the SEC's bowl slate was pretty balanced, according to Vegas: favored in five matches (Miss State v Miami (Ohio), A&M v KSU, Vols v Nebr, LSU v Louisville, and Bama v Washington), underdog in five (Vandy v NC State, USCe v USF, Arkansas v Va Tech, Kentucky v Ga Tech, and Auburn v Oklahoma), and a push in two (Georgia v TCU and Florida v Iowa). Here's the link I used to confirm that: https://www.seccountry.com/sec/sec-opening-lines-bowl-edition

But still, I'm with you. The SEC was, at best, the third-best conference this year, whether you look at regular season, or bowls.

One of the issues that the BIG always has is that we are typically traveling and facing another team in their backyard...while in the regular season, this thing sort of balances out year by year with home and home series, with bowls, it never balances out

Really good points, Headhunter, never thought about the "almost every bowl is away for us" issue. Thanks for the insight; that's a pretty big disadvantage.

...It was not a good year for the B1G in bowls, but we faced off against eight top 25 teams, and I believe the highest total for any other league was four.

...

I give the bowl crown to the ACC with three impressive wins — Clemson, Florida State and Miami's thrashing of West Virginia. If Clemson finds a way to beat the Tide, I think the ACC definitely gets league honors this year.

Another great point. Until you highlighted it, I didn't realize that imbalance existed. Thanks for the insight.

And I'm with you...giving 2016 props to the ACC. Think they earned it.