While it is going to take a while to get over the sting of 45-6, I figure now is just as good a time as any to share my thoughts on this season and the program's future.
A Look Back at 2015
This season is very conflicting. If we rewound back to August and someone said to me "you are going to go 10-2 with a New Year's Day bowl game this season," I would probably have laughed in their face. Then we came out and physically dominated Stanford in the opener, coasted through the Eastern Illinois game, handled a decent Duke team on the road, and managed a win in our annual OOC clunker against Ball State. Minnesota looked like one heck of a rebound game, only to come crashing back down to earth in consecutive weeks against Iowa and Michigan. However, the team showed some impressive grit in finding a way to win five straight B1G games, which is ALWAYS a pretty phenomenal accomplishment. Then we come crashing back down to earth against Tennessee.
In all, the conflict stems from the juxtaposition of 10 wins against 3 blowout losses. Northwestern football will always be about finding ways to win tight games and in many ways 2015 was about an "evening out" of the close losses we saw in 2013 and 2014. However, the blowout losses showed us just how far we have to go if we truly want to compete for championships.
I've said a number of times that I believe Fitz went to bat for his staff after the 2014 season, persuading Phillips that no changes were necessary because they were basically the same group of guys that led the team to a bowl victory. I've also said that I thought at least Springer could very easily have been handed his walking papers after last season and I haven't seen much out of our WRs this year that would convince me of his job security.
Based on his track record of loyalty and a 10 win season, I think it's doubtful that Fitz makes any changes going into 2016. However, I don't believe that's necessarily in the best interest of the program. While it is still my contention that a team and/or scheme can change with the same coaches in place, the offense has been particularly stagnant over the past three seasons. I understand that the OL and WR groups may have largely hamstrung McCall's ability to get creative, but I no longer believe that's a viable excuse. Changes are necessary, likely at least a position coach (or two) and definitely in terms of the general scheme, aggressiveness, and overall tone of our offense.
For an example of how that might work, look to Bob Stoops at Oklahoma as an example. While OU's level of success was obviously much higher than NU's (four straight 10+ win seasons and top 15 finishes from 2010-2013), Stoops took a step back after a disappointing 8-5 (5-4) season in 2014. Stoops made some difficult decisions, letting go his Co-OCs in "favorite son" Josh Heupel and longtime assistant Jay Norvell after a disappointing year for the offense while shifting around responsibilities in the remaining staff. He was able to bring in Lincoln Riley from East Carolina to reinvigorate the offense. Lo and behold, Oklahoma returned to prominence with an 11-1 (8-1) season carried in large party by an exciting offense (though getting Baker Mayfield cannot be overlooked).
I'm not willing to call for the jobs of specific coaches or identify coaches that I believe should be considered as replacements, nor do I think staff changes are necessarily required for an offensive overhaul. However, something drastic needs to be done and it needs to be done quickly. Whatever we have been doing the past three years simply hasn't been working. The blueprint for change is there. Now Fitz needs to decide whether it is necessary.
A Look Forward to 2016 (and beyond)
I continue to believe that the core is strong heading into 2016, particularly on defense. While it's going to hurt to replace Lowry and Gibson, I'll take a core group of Harris, Igwebuike, and Walker for starters and promising young players like Watkins, Queiro, Hall, Prater, Lancaster, Thompson (and others) with another year of development. We seem to be saying this every year, but we should again see the biggest/fastest defense in NU history come 2016.
On offense, Jackson is clearly a solid bell cow... but then I don't know what to think. Thorson should theoretically be better after an offseason as the lead QB and has a ton of physical ability, but needs to get a lot better. The WR group will be a lot of young and/or unproven guys. We need to replace Vitale at SB. The OL should be better just by being healthier, but has plenty to work on.
This is my "way too early" shot at the depth chart:
QB: Thorson / Alviti / Smith
RB: Jackson / Long / Anderson / Moten
WR: (No real clue)
SB: Taylor / Dickerson
LT: Hance / Olson
LG: Mertz / Mahoney
C: North / Park
RG: Park / Mahoney
RT: Doles / Olson
DE: Odenigbo / Gaziano
DT: Lancaster / Robbins
DT: Thompson / Kuhar
DE: Washington / Goens
Will: Prater / Walsh
Mike: Walker / Queiro
Sam: Hall / ?
CB: Harris / Hartage
CB: Watkins / McShepard
S: Igwebuike / McGee
S: Queiro / ?
Then there's the schedule. Opening with four straight home dates against WMU, ISU, Duke, and Nebraska isn't PARTICULARLY daunting, but trips to Iowa, Michigan State, and Ohio State is pretty daunting.
2016 could be a step back from 10 wins, but 2017 looks potentially pretty special based on the guys we would have back at that point (RS JR Thorson, SR Jackson, SR Walker, SR Igwebuike, etc.).
A Look Back at 2015
This season is very conflicting. If we rewound back to August and someone said to me "you are going to go 10-2 with a New Year's Day bowl game this season," I would probably have laughed in their face. Then we came out and physically dominated Stanford in the opener, coasted through the Eastern Illinois game, handled a decent Duke team on the road, and managed a win in our annual OOC clunker against Ball State. Minnesota looked like one heck of a rebound game, only to come crashing back down to earth in consecutive weeks against Iowa and Michigan. However, the team showed some impressive grit in finding a way to win five straight B1G games, which is ALWAYS a pretty phenomenal accomplishment. Then we come crashing back down to earth against Tennessee.
In all, the conflict stems from the juxtaposition of 10 wins against 3 blowout losses. Northwestern football will always be about finding ways to win tight games and in many ways 2015 was about an "evening out" of the close losses we saw in 2013 and 2014. However, the blowout losses showed us just how far we have to go if we truly want to compete for championships.
I've said a number of times that I believe Fitz went to bat for his staff after the 2014 season, persuading Phillips that no changes were necessary because they were basically the same group of guys that led the team to a bowl victory. I've also said that I thought at least Springer could very easily have been handed his walking papers after last season and I haven't seen much out of our WRs this year that would convince me of his job security.
Based on his track record of loyalty and a 10 win season, I think it's doubtful that Fitz makes any changes going into 2016. However, I don't believe that's necessarily in the best interest of the program. While it is still my contention that a team and/or scheme can change with the same coaches in place, the offense has been particularly stagnant over the past three seasons. I understand that the OL and WR groups may have largely hamstrung McCall's ability to get creative, but I no longer believe that's a viable excuse. Changes are necessary, likely at least a position coach (or two) and definitely in terms of the general scheme, aggressiveness, and overall tone of our offense.
For an example of how that might work, look to Bob Stoops at Oklahoma as an example. While OU's level of success was obviously much higher than NU's (four straight 10+ win seasons and top 15 finishes from 2010-2013), Stoops took a step back after a disappointing 8-5 (5-4) season in 2014. Stoops made some difficult decisions, letting go his Co-OCs in "favorite son" Josh Heupel and longtime assistant Jay Norvell after a disappointing year for the offense while shifting around responsibilities in the remaining staff. He was able to bring in Lincoln Riley from East Carolina to reinvigorate the offense. Lo and behold, Oklahoma returned to prominence with an 11-1 (8-1) season carried in large party by an exciting offense (though getting Baker Mayfield cannot be overlooked).
I'm not willing to call for the jobs of specific coaches or identify coaches that I believe should be considered as replacements, nor do I think staff changes are necessarily required for an offensive overhaul. However, something drastic needs to be done and it needs to be done quickly. Whatever we have been doing the past three years simply hasn't been working. The blueprint for change is there. Now Fitz needs to decide whether it is necessary.
A Look Forward to 2016 (and beyond)
I continue to believe that the core is strong heading into 2016, particularly on defense. While it's going to hurt to replace Lowry and Gibson, I'll take a core group of Harris, Igwebuike, and Walker for starters and promising young players like Watkins, Queiro, Hall, Prater, Lancaster, Thompson (and others) with another year of development. We seem to be saying this every year, but we should again see the biggest/fastest defense in NU history come 2016.
On offense, Jackson is clearly a solid bell cow... but then I don't know what to think. Thorson should theoretically be better after an offseason as the lead QB and has a ton of physical ability, but needs to get a lot better. The WR group will be a lot of young and/or unproven guys. We need to replace Vitale at SB. The OL should be better just by being healthier, but has plenty to work on.
This is my "way too early" shot at the depth chart:
QB: Thorson / Alviti / Smith
RB: Jackson / Long / Anderson / Moten
WR: (No real clue)
SB: Taylor / Dickerson
LT: Hance / Olson
LG: Mertz / Mahoney
C: North / Park
RG: Park / Mahoney
RT: Doles / Olson
DE: Odenigbo / Gaziano
DT: Lancaster / Robbins
DT: Thompson / Kuhar
DE: Washington / Goens
Will: Prater / Walsh
Mike: Walker / Queiro
Sam: Hall / ?
CB: Harris / Hartage
CB: Watkins / McShepard
S: Igwebuike / McGee
S: Queiro / ?
Then there's the schedule. Opening with four straight home dates against WMU, ISU, Duke, and Nebraska isn't PARTICULARLY daunting, but trips to Iowa, Michigan State, and Ohio State is pretty daunting.
2016 could be a step back from 10 wins, but 2017 looks potentially pretty special based on the guys we would have back at that point (RS JR Thorson, SR Jackson, SR Walker, SR Igwebuike, etc.).
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