Vegas Win Totals

[NJCat]

Vegas likes the Cats in '17......o/u at 8.5

• Ohio State: 10.5 (Over -120, Under EVEN)
• Wisconsin: 10.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
• Penn State: 10 (Over -110, Under -110)
• Michigan: 8.5 (Over -120, Under EVEN)
• Northwestern: 8.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
• Minnesota: 7.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
• Iowa: 7 (Over -120, Under EVEN)
• Nebraska: 7 (Over EVEN, Under -120)
• Indiana: 6.5 (Over -120, Under EVEN)
• Michigan State: 5 (Over -110, Under -110)
• Illinois: 3.5 (Over EVEN, Under -120)
• Maryland: 3 (Over -120, Under EVEN)
• Rutgers: 3 (Over -110, Under -110)
• Purdue: 2.5 (Over -125, Under +105)

http://www.cbssports.com/college-fo...dium=newsletter&utm_campaign=college-football

 

[julescat]

NU wins too high.

 

[FloridAlum]

NU wins too high.

You can always fly to Vegas and bet the under, But of course you won't. Before you do, check our schedule. I expect this to be favored in nine games.

 

[julescat]

You can always fly to Vegas and bet the under, But of course you won't. Before you do, check our schedule. I expect this to be favored in nine games.

If I had to bet I would bet the under. I think a fair number is 7.5.

 

[DonatelloCat]

If I had to bet I would bet the under. I think a fair number is 7.5.

I thought I saw the total at 7 somewhere a month or two ago? Maybe the first cut of the offshore odds?

 

[FloridAlum]

I thought I saw the total at 7 somewhere a month or two ago? Maybe the first cut of the offshore odds?

I saw that too, thought it looked a little too low, and I am fairly sure that someone posted it here on the board.

 

[BosCat]

Not that this is news, but there are just a few sports books in Vegas:
https://www.vegas.com/gaming/sportsbooks/
https://www.vegas.com/gaming/sportsbooks/
Here's one from 5/23 with us at 7:
http://www.foxsports.com/college-fo...r-win-totals-point-spreads-early-games-052217

Big Ten West
Wisconsin: 9 1/2
Northwestern: 7
Iowa: 6 1/2
Nebraska: 6
Illinois: N/A
Minnesota: N/A
Purdue: N/A

 

[FloridAlum]

Not that this is news, but there are just a few sports books in Vegas:
https://www.vegas.com/gaming/sportsbooks/
Here's one from 5/23 with us at 7:
http://www.foxsports.com/college-fo...r-win-totals-point-spreads-early-games-052217

Big Ten West
Wisconsin: 9 1/2
Northwestern: 7
Iowa: 6 1/2
Nebraska: 6
Illinois: N/A
Minnesota: N/A
Purdue: N/A

Yes, I saw that too about three weeks ago. Is it possible that the number has changed a fair bit since then?

 

[TejasCat]

Yes, I saw that too about three weeks ago. Is it possible that the number has changed a fair bit since then?

CG Technology (runs Venetian, Cosmo and a bunch of others) put out numbers only for Power-5 teams that would win 6+ games. They added a few more a few days later. They opened NU at 7 and it got hammered on the over. Last I saw it was over 7 -175ish (that was a few weeks ago). Neb opened at CGT at 6, and i think its 7.5 now offshore.

A few offshore books copied CGT lines and NU moved up to 7.5 with offshore betting.

At beginning of June, South Point (Chris Andrews - one of the bravest guys out there) put out numbers (did the same last year) for all 130 FBS schools. He does his own numbers and ignores everyone else. He put NU at 8.5. It got hit some to the under. I may have moved to 8 but not sure.

I expect the number to settle in at 7.5/8 range.

I'm headed out to Vegas on Tuesday, I can report back on what the current line is.

 

[FloridAlum]

CG Technology (runs Venetian, Cosmo and a bunch of others) put out numbers only for Power-5 teams that would win 6+ games. They added a few more a few days later. They opened NU at 7 and it got hammered on the over. Last I saw it was over 7 -175ish (that was a few weeks ago). Neb opened at CGT at 6, and i think its 7.5 now offshore.

A few offshore books copied CGT lines and NU moved up to 7.5 with offshore betting.

At beginning of June, South Point (Chris Andrews - one of the bravest guys out there) put out numbers (did the same last year) for all 130 FBS schools. He does his own numbers and ignores everyone else. He put NU at 8.5. It got hit some to the under. I may have moved to 8 but not sure.

I expect the number to settle in at 7.5/8 range.

I'm headed out to Vegas on Tuesday, I can report back on what the current line is.

Don't forget to place your own wager

 

[EvanstonCat]

If I had to bet I would bet the under. I think a fair number is 7.5.

I'll take the over. You game?

 

[julescat]

I'll take the over. You game?

If you are taking the over 8.5 wins for the 12 game regular season then I am game for taking the other side of that bet.

 

[Fitz51]

If you are taking the over 8.5 wins for the 12 game regular season then I am game for taking the other side of that bet.

I, too, would take under 8.5. Not because of how I feel about the team but because it's a good bet percentagewise.

O/U 7.5 or 8 is a far closer call.

 

[FeralFelidae]

That extra half-win is going to put us in a GREAT bowl.

 

[EvanstonCat]

If you are taking the over 8.5 wins for the 12 game regular season then I am game for taking the other side of that bet.

No, you wanted to offer 7.5. I'll bet you on the over at 7.5

If you don't take it, then you're admitting 7.5 is too low.

 

[julescat]

No, you wanted to offer 7.5. I'll bet you on the over at 7.5

If you don't take it, then you're admitting 7.5 is too low.

That is ridiculous. I said the 8.5 number was too high and that a fair number was about 7.5. Why the hell would I want to bet either side of a number that I think is fair? What are you talking about?

 

[EvanstonCat]

That is ridiculous. I said the 8.5 number was too high and that a fair number was about 7.5. Why the hell would I want to bet either side of a number that I think is fair? What are you talking about?

You said the fair number is 7.5.

I said I'd take the over. It's a fair bet.

 

[julescat]

You said the fair number is 7.5.

I said I'd take the over. It's a fair bet.

Fair number means that it is the number that I believe sits where I wouldn't bet either way. So why should I take the under? Stupid.

 

[Fitz51]

Fair number means that it is the number that I believe sits where I wouldn't bet either way. So why should I take the under? Stupid.

At least one person here understands the distinction.

 

[EvanstonCat]

Fair number means that it is the number that I believe sits where I wouldn't bet either way. So why should I take the under? Stupid.

Or you would bet either way.

It should be 50-50.

You're a glass half empty guy aren't you?

How about this then - I take 9 or more and you win with 7 or less. 8 is a push. That should be unfairly in your favour no?

 

[julescat]

Or you would bet either way.

It should be 50-50.

You're a glass half empty guy aren't you?

How about this then - I take 9 or more and you win with 7 or less. 8 is a push. That should be unfairly in your favour no?

I don't make a bet at what I consider fair value of a proposition. I only bet when I feel I have edge.

I am not a glass half empty guy. On the contrary I am usually overly optimistic. You don't want to take the over 8.5 so I guess there is no bet with me.

 

[Fitz51]

I don't make a bet at what I consider fair value of a proposition. I only bet when I feel I have edge.

I am not a glass half empty guy. On the contrary I am usually overly optimistic. You don't want to take the over 8.5 so I guess there is no bet with me.

Right - I do not understand the attempt to paint you as a pessimist because of this. If 8 is a push, there is really no value. Getting the under 8.5 means you would win at 8, a number which you think is a good probability statistically to be the win total.

Pfft. Nongamblers.