What Record Would Get Collins Fired?

[7th Cir. Cat]

We are now at year 7 of the CC era and we have just lost at home to Merrimack and Radford. Five out of 6 years we have finished 10th place or lower in the Conference. We will almost certainly finish 10th or lower again this year.

Serious question, if we only win 1 or 2 games in the Big 10, would the AD consider replacing him?

And let's not turn this into a recruiting thread because to me that's just even more of an indictment of his coaching skills (i.e, the most talented group of recruits at NU can't beat Merrimack at home).

Is CC's seat starting to get warm?

Do these absurd non-con results matter to Dr. Phillips?

In terms of evaluating whether CC is the long-term answer, is this year a total write-off and next year make or break?

 

[cwcorgi-ks]

I think CC pitched this to the AD as a rebuilding season, trading wins for development of young talent. Time will tell if that works well or not. If NU wins less than 10 games this season, even with the rebuilding story, I think it causes some squirming. 10 or more wins, I think the seat remains cool for another year. I think Dr. Phillips is more long-term focused.

Next season, with Gaines as a senior, Kopp and Nance as upperclassmen, Beran, Young, Buie, and Jones with experience, and adding Audige and Berry into the mix, 13-15+ wins becomes more expected. Then 2021-22, a winning record and post-season would be expected.

To answer your original question, I think a hideous 4-27 type season would not sit well regardless. But generally speaking, this year is not make or break.

 

[GatoLouco]

Do you think it's about the record?

I don't. I think it's all about what is our best alternative. And I do not think we can aim for better than what we have now. Debatable, sure. But I don't think more than "unproven" coaches will pick up the phone.

 

[7th Cir. Cat]

I think CC pitched this to the AD as a rebuilding season, trading wins for development of young talent. Time will tell if that works well or not. If NU wins less than 10 games this season, even with the rebuilding story, I think it causes some squirming. 10 or more wins, I think the seat remains cool for another year. I think Dr. Phillips is more long-term focused.

I hear you on that. But I think even Dr. Jim would expect a rebuilding team to beat Merrimack at home. I think 6, 7, 8 wins shows that he's lost the team. Because If he really is bringing in highly regarded players (and he is) then you should be able to get to double digits wins with our schedule.

I'll call it right now, if the Cats finish with under 10 wins then I think he's gone.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

We are now at year 7 of the CC era and we have just lost at home to Merrimack and Radford. Five out of 6 years we have finished 10th place or lower in the Conference. We will almost certainly finish 10th or lower again this year.

Serious question, if we only win 1 or 2 games in the Big 10, would the AD consider replacing him?

And let's not turn this into a recruiting thread because to me that's just even more of an indictment of his coaching skills (i.e, the most talented group of recruits at NU can't beat Merrimack at home).

Is CC's seat starting to get warm?

Do these absurd non-con results matter to Dr. Phillips?

In terms of evaluating whether CC is the long-term answer, is this year a total write-off and next year make or break?

zero wins and CCC already has one, so he is safe.

 

[7th Cir. Cat]

zero wins and CCC already has one, so he is safe.

What about zero conference wins?

 

[NJCat]

What about zero conference wins?

Seems like a very, very likely outcome for this squad.

 

[7th Cir. Cat]

I cant' tell if you're being sarcastic.

I don't think zero wins is likely. But unlike a lot of people, I think CC's record this year matters. I think if we become an absolute joke of a team (rebuilding year or not), then he's out.

 

[hdhntr1]

I think CC pitched this to the AD as a rebuilding season, trading wins for development of young talent. Time will tell if that works well or not. If NU wins less than 10 games this season, even with the rebuilding story, I think it causes some squirming. 10 or more wins, I think the seat remains cool for another year. I think Dr. Phillips is more long-term focused.

Next season, with Gaines as a senior, Kopp and Nance as upperclassmen, Beran, Young, Buie, and Jones with experience, and adding Audige and Berry into the mix, 13-15+ wins becomes more expected. Then 2021-22, a winning record and post-season would be expected.

To answer your original question, I think a hideous 4-27 type season would not sit well regardless. But generally speaking, this year is not make or break.

Pesonnally, I think CCC needs to look hard as his assistants and whether they are the right people for the job. We have supposedly been getting some pretty good recruits and we see glimpses of that talent. But it just is not meshing together. It did with a different group of assistants but right now ... The HC is a figurehead who is more of a CEO. Most of the real work as far as development and the like is done by the assistants.

What I saw last night was and team that was disciplined, had an offensive plan, rebounded well etc and one that wasn't. Unfortunately the one that was prepared was not NU. Something seems to be missing

 

[hdhntr1]

I cant' tell if you're being sarcastic.

I don't think zero wins is likely. But unlike a lot of people, I think CC's record this year matters. I think if we become an absolute joke of a team (rebuilding year or not), then he's out.

Especially since we already have one. Oops, sorry I did not see the lead in that it was Conference wins

 

[EagerFan]

It does depend on part on what kind of promises he made pre season. I agree he likely pitched this as a low win season focused on player and team development. If that’s true, I think he just has to win half of the non con games and a couple in con to be fine. So mebbe less than six wins might be the straw.

 

[hdhntr1]

I cant' tell if you're being sarcastic.

I don't think zero wins is likely. But unlike a lot of people, I think CC's record this year matters. I think if we become an absolute joke of a team (rebuilding year or not), then he's out.

Would depend on who is available. If it turns out that Badlwin was the key and he was available... Hardy might be another candidate. But it would be a longshot to think we would be able to land anyone high profile.

 

[7th Cir. Cat]

Especially since we already have one. Oops, sorry I did not see the lead in that it was Conference wins

The zero was referring to conference wins . . .

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

The zero was referring to conference wins . . .

I am on the other side of the coin. I think CCC stays no matter what his record is this year. Barring scandal, he makes it through the Nance, Kopp class.

I haven’t seen anyone predict better than a 13th place finish for the Cats. I think we get 2-3 Big Ten wins, and hope we are better than Nebraska.

 

[7th Cir. Cat]

I am on the other side of the coin. I think CCC stays no matter what his record is this year. Barring scandal, he makes it through the Nance, Kopp class.

I haven’t seen anyone predict better than a 13th place finish for the Cats. I think we get 2-3 Big Ten wins, and hope we are better than Nebraska.

Sigh . . . hoping for 2 conference wins in year 7 is not where I expected to be in the CC era. We had 4 conferences wins last year!

 

[willycat]

Do you think it's about the record?

I don't. I think it's all about what is our best alternative. And I do not think we can aim for better than what we have now. Debatable, sure. But I don't think more than "unproven" coaches will pick up the phone.

Baldwin?

 

[NUCat320]

It’s easy to slag on the departed, but the willful exits of Falzon, Ash, and especially Benson indicate a cultural issue. Unwillingness of those who remain to show up twice already by mid-November is another example.

I think Dr. Jim is going to see his shining gym filled in every color but purple from January through March, and he’s going to wonder if he missed.

I think zero conference wins is the only number that could get CCC canned.

 

[ParisCat]

I say ZERO chance CCC gets canned, no matter the results on the court this year. He was Phillips' dream hire and led the Cats to the promised land (once upon a time). Any reasonable observer would peg this as a down year and next year as an "up" year, losing only a replaceable grad transfer and a vanishing senior. Phillips will not be happy this year (see, e.g., his awkward hugging of Radford fans sitting in the Wilson Club seats last night -- and it's only going to get worse), but I think he expects it, and as others have said, there's no obvious better alternative, unfortunately.

 

[freewillie07]

I am on the other side of the coin. I think CCC stays no matter what his record is this year. Barring scandal, he makes it through the Nance, Kopp class.

I haven’t seen anyone predict better than a 13th place finish for the Cats. I think we get 2-3 Big Ten wins, and hope we are better than Nebraska.

Yep, this. Record doesn’t matter this season. Collins has until Nance/Kopp Senior season to get NU back to relevance. It doesn’t look especially promising now but we’ll see.

 

[DaCat]

Do you think it's about the record?

I don't. I think it's all about what is our best alternative. And I do not think we can aim for better than what we have now. Debatable, sure. But I don't think more than "unproven" coaches will pick up the phone.

I also think CC is okay for now, but there are plenty of bright young coaches in the mid-major ranks who would jump at coaching at NU. We found a gem in Randy Walker in football after Barnett abandoned ship.

 

[GatoLouco]

Do you think it's about the record?

I don't. I think it's all about what is our best alternative. And I do not think we can aim for better than what we have now. Debatable, sure. But I don't think more than "unproven" coaches will pick up the phone.

Baldwin?

What makes you think he can sustain the level of recruiting demonstrated by Collins? Don’t matter if he is better in every other aspect of the game. In my opinion we are still worse off if recruiting declines.

Baldwin is not proven. He might be a great coach. I hope he is. Wish him the greatest success. But he has nothing to show for in Milwaukee.

 

[NUCat320]

What makes you think he can sustain the level of recruiting demonstrated by Collins? Don’t matter if he is better in every other aspect of the game. In my opinion we are still worse off if recruiting declines.

Baldwin is not proven. He might be a great coach. I hope he is. Wish him the greatest success. But he has nothing to show for in Milwaukee.

I realize that OP didn’t want to talk recruiting — but recruiting is not proven. The last quality (defined as ability to start for most teams in the league) big ten player brought in was Pardon in 2015.

 

[GatoLouco]

What makes you think he can sustain the level of recruiting demonstrated by Collins? Don’t matter if he is better in every other aspect of the game. In my opinion we are still worse off if recruiting declines.

Baldwin is not proven. He might be a great coach. I hope he is. Wish him the greatest success. But he has nothing to show for in Milwaukee.

I realize that OP didn’t want to talk recruiting — but recruiting is not proven. The last quality (defined as ability to start for most teams in the league) big ten player brought in was Pardon in 2015.

I believe Pardon actually wasn’t a highly touted recruit. But surely developed into a force.

It’s just your opinion man (in Dude’s voice). It’s debatable. But I continue to believe the recruiting has dramatically improved.

Like it was stated above there are many mid major coaches willing to jump. But none that are proven. Heck, we got Collins without him even having been a head coach. Bottom line, hard to believe we can get anyone proven. So, unless someone knows more than we do about any given guy, it’s a heck of a gamble to go with someone unproven.

I had season tickets for two seasons for Northern Kentucky (mighty I know). After one season I was fairly confident John Brannen was headed for better things. After two he was gone to Cincinnati.

 

[Styre]

I seriously doubt anything short of, like, 3-28 (0-20) would get him fired this year. Everyone knew this team was going to be bad, so it would be a little unfair to fire him unless the season goes completely off the rails.

That said, if he doesn't get the team back into the postseason in 2020-21, he should be fired. 8 years is more than enough time to build a program and 1 postseason bid, historic as it may have been, is not acceptable over that amount of time, especially with the amount of money fans are now expected to fork out in support.

 

[NJCat]

I seriously doubt anything short of, like, 3-28 (0-20) would get him fired this year. Everyone knew this team was going to be bad, so it would be a little unfair to fire him unless the season goes completely off the rails.

That said, if he doesn't get the team back into the postseason in 2020-21, he should be fired. 8 years is more than enough time to build a program and 1 postseason bid, historic as it may have been, is not acceptable over that amount of time, especially with the amount of money fans are now expected to fork out in support.

Very reasonable take. If 2020-21 is a losing season, Collins will have had 6 losing records in 8 years. That would be time to move on.

 

[Styre]

Very reasonable take. If 2020-21 is a losing season, Collins will have had 6 losing records in 8 years. That would be time to move on.

Yeah. I think the heavy debate would come if they went, say, 17-14 and didn't make the postseason. A losing record would be outright unacceptable; a postseason bid (NIT or obviously NCAA) would be enough to earn a 9th year or more.

 

[7th Cir. Cat]

I seriously doubt anything short of, like, 3-28 (0-20) would get him fired this year. Everyone knew this team was going to be bad, so it would be a little unfair to fire him unless the season goes completely off the rails.

You are probably right. But when you step back doesn't it seem bonkers that at this point we are saying that a coach can follow-up a 4 win conference season with a 1 or 2 win conference season and it wouldn't even warrant a conversation with the AD about whether something is amiss?

 

[IGNORE]

Sigh . . . hoping for 2 conference wins in year 7 is not where I expected to be in the CC era. We had 4 conferences wins last year!

Mike promised so much more...

 

[IdahoAlum]

Don’t think it’s about record as much as it is about momentum. If the team shows growth and puts together some positive results down the stretch —I.e. provides some hope, then I think Collins is safe for another year. But if there are a series a blowouts to end the season, followed by more defections at the end of the season, then Phillips may have no choice but to cut ties. Clearly there are no guarantees of finding a better coach — but there comes a time when the status quo is simply not tolerable anymore.

 

[haywood jahblowme]

a bad record in 2023/24 with no program momentum

 

[GatoLouco]

a bad record in 2023/24 with no program momentum

Why 23/24? Why not 21/22? Kopp and Nance will be seniors. Beran/Jones/Buie will be juniors. Seems reasonable to think we would have the obligation to be pretty competitive

 

[IGNORE]

a bad record in 2023/24 with no program momentum

And nobody in purple left in the stands by then.
And I don’t doubt it. So better question, what record does it take for Pat Ryan to make JP do his job?

Imagine Ryan knowing all his big money projects are housing national laughstock programs. Don’t think he has sway and would simply sit idle? Another bet I will take.

 

[phatcat]

we are the Miami Marlins of college basketball. Team collapses after historic year, but at least with the Marlins, it was intentional.

What's shocking to me is, these teams are nothing like the teams in his first few years. Losses/no postseason notwithstanding, those teams played good, tough basketball.

I am a VERY casual fan, but to my unschooled observation, this is a 14th place team that will be lucky to win one conference game. and after the two losses, I'm not sure if they win more than a couple non-cons. These teams will smell blood in the water.

I predict o-fer B1G and 4 non-con wins. and I think it will be the first year, even with our putrid history, that FB and MBB were o-fer B1G in same season. Let that sink in.

 

[GatoLouco]

What's shocking to me is, these teams are nothing like the teams in his first few years. Losses/no postseason notwithstanding, those teams played good, tough basketball.

Thanks BMac for that

 

[pawildcat]

My take is that he's going after some good kids in recruiting this year and he'd better get some of them if he's going to stick around. Based on the level of performance the past couple of seasons, he certainly ought to be able to offer any four- or five-star guy some immediate playing time.

 

[haywood jahblowme]

Why 23/24? Why not 21/22? Kopp and Nance will be seniors. Beran/Jones/Buie will be juniors. Seems reasonable to think we would have the obligation to be pretty competitive

i think the combo of the arena and practice facility coming online (which the program hasn't had in a competitive format) and the remaining contract are the main factors. he'll get a chance to succeed on a level playing field (from facilities at least, not admissions still)

 

[7th Cir. Cat]

That is a reasonable answer.

But the administration should still consider whether he's the right person from an X's and O's standpoint. He has more talent than Radford. He has more talent than Merrimack. It seems as if there is something missing from either a motivational standpoint (this is probably at least half on the players) and in-game adjustment standpoint, or a preparation standpoint.

Recruiting honestly has not been the problem and better recruits won't improve preparation, motivation or adjustments. It can hide the issues, but it won't fix them.

 

[cwcorgi-ks]

i think the combo of the arena and practice facility coming online (which the program hasn't had in a competitive format) and the remaining contract are the main factors. he'll get a chance to succeed on a level playing field (from facilities at least, not admissions still)

Even the new facilities aren't as good as Nebraska's or Minnesota's, but they are definitely an upgrade. If momentum and recruiting aren't both positive in 21/22, I think it will be getting warm in Trienens.

 

[Styre]

I tell you what, folks, if Chris Collins hasn't had another postseason berth by 2038, I think his seat might just start to get a little warm!

 

[julescat]

There is no record at which Collins could get fired by Phillips. Collins is his boy. It was his day one mission on the job when he was made AD. It took a couple of years to get Carmody out of the way but here we are. It would take Phillips leaving for Collins to get whacked.