What we know about next year's non-conference schedule

[pschatz25]

I've started seeing announcement of non-conference games for next season. So far I think this is all we know about next year's non-conference slate:

DePaul (12/21/24 @ WRA)
Arizona State (@ United Center)
@ Dayton

That leaves a lot of games left to figure out. The Gavitt Games series is over. I assume we'll be in a non-conference tournament. Usually those are announced pretty far in advance, but I don't recall anything for NU and I'm not seeing anything online either. Hopefully there will be a couple more power conference opponents. I assume the rest will be the usually parade of sub-200 teams. Next season we should work on blowing those teams out.

 

[Just Gary]

Tbh, I have no idea why we would schedule any games with teams below 200. It never helps us get into the tournament.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Tbh, I have no idea why we would schedule any games with teams below 200. It never helps us get into the tournament.

Scrimmage

 

[Just Gary]

Scrimmage

But it never helps. Go ahead and schedule 3-4 games with them instead of 8-10. But beating a team outside the top 200 by 20 does nothing and we have the tendency to only beat them by 10 which lowers our computer rankings.

 

[CatJones]

Tbh, I have no idea why we would schedule any games with teams below 200. It never helps us get into the tournament.

They should do it for the enjoyment of the fans. The fans are clearly a secondary consideration to the basketball program.

 

[its_the_sauce]

They should do it for the enjoyment of the fans. The fans are clearly a secondary consideration to the basketball program.

So did you enjoy Chicago State game last year?

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

So did you enjoy Chicago State game last year?

Right, games against 200+ teams turned out to have zero impact on the season.

 

[SimpsonElmwood]

Preseason Tourney Fields

We are not connected to any tournaments yet. Many fields have been filled.

 

[IGNORE2]

Right, games against 200+ teams turned out to have zero impact on the season.

You are an end justifies the means guy?

 

[JournCat]

Right, games against 200+ teams turned out to have zero impact on the season.

If the CSU loss knocked us down a seed line, it put us in the path of the UConn machine when we otherwise might have gotten a more manageable 2-seed.

 

[Catreporter]

If the CSU loss knocked us down a seed line, it put us in the path of the UConn machine when we otherwise might have gotten a more manageable 2-seed.

Yeah, that hurt a little but the big hurt came from the injuries that cost us a couple of big wins that could have changed our seed. I still like playing local teams in the non conference.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

If the CSU loss knocked us down a seed line, it put us in the path of the UConn machine when we otherwise might have gotten a more manageable 2-seed.

I don’t believe it knocked us down a seed line.

Losing to Wisconsin knocked us down a seed line.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

I don’t believe it knocked us down a seed line.

Losing to Wisconsin knocked us down a seed line.

For the stats guys like Torvik and KenPom (and their blind acolytes), losing to Chicago State was a disaster, while losing to Wisconsin was nothing. But, thankfully, seeds are less dependent on those "who cares who wins?" approaches.

I can tell you that in my ratings, the loss to Chicago State was about a 25 point underperformance.
The loss at Illinois was about a 22 point underperformance.
The win over Western Michigan was an 18 point underperformance.
The 2nd loss to Wisconsin (in the Big Ten tournament) was a 7 point underperformance.

To guess-timate the effect on Torvik and KenPom, that 25 point underperformance against Chicago State would cost Northwestern about 0.75 points in its rating (because those guys weight all games equally).

So that single game probably dropped NU about 5-6 places, compared to not playing anybody.

If you seeded strictly by KenPom, it cost us 1 or 2 seeds.

Thankfully, humans were able to discount that loss.

 

[FeralFelidae]

For the stats guys like Torvik and KenPom (and their blind acolytes), losing to Chicago State was a disaster, while losing to Wisconsin was nothing. But, thankfully, seeds are less dependent on those "who cares who wins?" approaches.

I can tell you that in my ratings, the loss to Chicago State was about a 25 point underperformance.
The loss at Illinois was about a 22 point underperformance.
The win over Western Michigan was an 18 point underperformance.
The 2nd loss to Wisconsin (in the Big Ten tournament) was a 7 point underperformance.

To guess-timate the effect on Torvik and KenPom, that 25 point underperformance against Chicago State would cost Northwestern about 0.75 points in its rating (because those guys weight all games equally).

So that single game probably dropped NU about 5-6 places, compared to not playing anybody.

If you seeded strictly by KenPom, it cost us 1 or 2 seeds.

Thankfully, humans were able to discount that loss.

I think all of NU's injuries cost them a couple of seeds down the stretch. I think we actually were the 2nd-best team in the conference before losing 2 starters for the rest of the season.

 

[Secho99]

To guess-timate the effect on Torvik and KenPom, that 25 point underperformance against Chicago State would cost Northwestern about 0.75 points in its rating (because those guys weight all games equally).

One of Torvik's differentiators is that he does not weight all games equally. All games in the last 40 days count 100%, then they "degrade" by 1% each day to a maximum of 40 days (so all games more than 80 days old are weighted at 60%).

He then discounts blowouts between mismatched teams by giving the game a lower weighting based on the margin of victory and the difference in rating, and he also omits data from "garbage time."

I think all of this represents the majority of the difference between his rankings and KenPom.

So that single game probably dropped NU about 5-6 places, compared to not playing anybody.

If you seeded strictly by KenPom, it cost us 1 or 2 seeds.

Torvik has a feature that allows you to look at a team's schedule and then change the results of games or drop games completely from the schedule so you can see what-if scenarios for tournament seeding.

It's even worse than you think, dropping the CSU game from our schedule improved our ranking by 8 spots (2 seed lines).

Thankfully, humans were able to discount that loss.

Yup.

 

[Just Gary]

I also would like to see more road games against top 100 schools. Winning those always boost the rankings while losses usually don’t hurt if they are close. I just think when your OOC SOS is 300+, it puts all the pressure on having to finish in the top 3-4 in the B1G. Michigan State would not have made the tournament if their OOC schedule was ranked 400+. It’s just time we start playing better teams early.

 

[SmellyCat]

I also would like to see more road games against top 100 schools. Winning those always boost the rankings while losses usually don’t hurt if they are close. I just think when your OOC SOS is 300+, it puts all the pressure on having to finish in the top 3-4 in the B1G. Michigan State would not have made the tournament if their OOC schedule was ranked 400+. It’s just time we start playing better teams early.

I know it was not a road game, but that win over Dayton in November was a gift that kept giving all year long. I would love to see NU get some more tests in November and December. No, I don't necessarily want a schedule of Gonzaga, Kansas, and Duke in the first couple of weeks, but maybe a few decent teams from decent conferences just to keep the team sharp and bump up the schedule.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

One of Torvik's differentiators is that he does not weight all games equally. All games in the last 40 days count 100%, then they "degrade" by 1% each day to a maximum of 40 days (so all games more than 80 days old are weighted at 60%).

He then discounts blowouts between mismatched teams by giving the game a lower weighting based on the margin of victory and the difference in rating, and he also omits data from "garbage time."

I think all of this represents the majority of the difference between his rankings and KenPom.



Torvik has a feature that allows you to look at a team's schedule and then change the results of games or drop games completely from the schedule so you can see what-if scenarios for tournament seeding.

It's even worse than you think, dropping the CSU game from our schedule improved our ranking by 8 spots (2 seed lines).



Yup.

Thanks for the thoughtful response!

I didn't know Torvik put those changes in.
(Fading out the weight of a game based on the calendar, lowering effect of weird outcomes in mismatches)
I'm gonna take a victory lap on that. My ratings have always had that, as well as other logical improvements.
But, as far as I know, he's still focused on "efficiencies" so hopefully he comes around.
He is a great collaborative resource and one hell of a data presenter. Ken Pomeroy? Not so much.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

I also would like to see more road games against top 100 schools. Winning those always boost the rankings while losses usually don’t hurt if they are close. I just think when your OOC SOS is 300+, it puts all the pressure on having to finish in the top 3-4 in the B1G. Michigan State would not have made the tournament if their OOC schedule was ranked 400+. It’s just time we start playing better teams early.

Scheduling patsies is just a tendency from the bygone days when going 14-0 in non-conference made your overall record look good. Its just a bad habit. You want some of those to experiment with your roster, but the new over-reliance on KenPom makes that sort of thing self-defeating. If you don't blow those teams out, your team sucks.

Teams would be better off playing "exhibitions." to work on their lineups.

 

[NURoseBowl]

If the CSU loss knocked us down a seed line, it put us in the path of the UConn machine when we otherwise might have gotten a more manageable 2-seed.

One of these years we need to hit the 6 line. Then it wouldn't take a big upset to make the Sweet Sixteen.

 

[Deeringfish]

Scheduling patsies is just a tendency from the bygone days when going 14-0 in non-conference made your overall record look good. Its just a bad habit. You want some of those to experiment with your roster, but the new over-reliance on KenPom makes that sort of thing self-defeating. If you don't blow those teams out, your team sucks.

Teams would be better off playing "exhibitions." to work on their lineups.

How many exhibitions are allowed?

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

How many exhibitions are allowed?

Thats a good question. I don't know.
There is probably a limit on paper, like 2, but the NCAA is toothless at this point.
Just do whatever you want.

I mean, come on now, everybody wants the 4 point shot from midcourt or beyond.

 

[macarthur31]

I did a google search on "How NCAA Basketball Teams Schedule Nonconference Games." What I gathered was that there were more reddit/quora posts that were asking the question, and not nearly as many offering authoritative answers on it. I found two articles/blogs on it: "The Science of Scheduling", while 5 years old, explores some angles that I hadn't given much thought - such as the factor of playing road games where upperclassmen's hometowns. Then there's B1G Network familiar face Mike DeCourcy's very recent Sporting News article which looks at the potential impact of superconferences on already chaotic non-con scheduling process.

What's clear to me is that non-con scheduling is more art than science. What we don't know is how much the final product differs from what Collins ideal schedule for his team that year. If we go by what was proposed earlier in the thread: a top 200 team, here's a sampling of mid-majors-

Jacksonville St (CUSA, kp 200)
East Carolina (American, kp 189)
Illinois St (MVC, kp 179)
Delaware (Coastal, kp 169)
Wright St (Horizon, kp 158)

Those look like good non-con opponents. The things to factor are: Would they want to play us? Can we afford them? Would they want to come to Evanston? Would they be willing to play just a "road" game, and not expect a home visit?

The Cats played just one true road game in the non-con last year - and that was DePaul. I envision that the 'Cats don't want to play true road games - Rutgers and Michigan last year were the only B1G teams that had 2 true road games. The rest only played 1 or none.

Of course, there are "neutral" site games (The 'Cats played in two of them Rhode Island and Mississippi St - Hall of Fame Tipoff - Uncasville, CT. Given our deep ties to recruiting the NEPSAC, I wonder if that's a strategic booking.) - and those are the more likely ways that a B1G team will NOT play at home - and every B1G team played in at least 2 of those.

Even Michigan State, who has the reputation of "anytime, anywhere" didn't play a true road game last year. They had two neutrals (Duke and Arizona), and a "Semi-Home" vs Baylor that was in Detroit.

So, while booking road games may be a path to juice the non-con schedule, I also imagine the 'Cats just won't do 'em outside of the "neutral site" opps is because it's alot to take guys on the road - not just cost, but also time out of the classroom (which is a thing for our program). They'll do enough of that during the B1G - no need to overload that in the tail end of fall quarter.

All this to say, unless the 'Cats become a glamour program in which the "made for TV' non-con tourneys will want them (which we're likely a few more Sweet 16s away from), I envision our non-con is going to remain soft. Especially with the advent of Oregon (kp 55), USC (kp 85), UCLA (kp98) and Washington (kp60) joining the B1G regular season in '25.

 

[Just Gary]

I did a google search on "How NCAA Basketball Teams Schedule Nonconference Games." What I gathered was that there were more reddit/quora posts that were asking the question, and not nearly as many offering authoritative answers on it. I found two articles/blogs on it: "The Science of Scheduling", while 5 years old, explores some angles that I hadn't given much thought - such as the factor of playing road games where upperclassmen's hometowns. Then there's B1G Network familiar face Mike DeCourcy's very recent Sporting News article which looks at the potential impact of superconferences on already chaotic non-con scheduling process.

What's clear to me is that non-con scheduling is more art than science. What we don't know is how much the final product differs from what Collins ideal schedule for his team that year. If we go by what was proposed earlier in the thread: a top 200 team, here's a sampling of mid-majors-

Jacksonville St (CUSA, kp 200)
East Carolina (American, kp 189)
Illinois St (MVC, kp 179)
Delaware (Coastal, kp 169)
Wright St (Horizon, kp 158)

Those look like good non-con opponents. The things to factor are: Would they want to play us? Can we afford them? Would they want to come to Evanston? Would they be willing to play just a "road" game, and not expect a home visit?

The Cats played just one true road game in the non-con last year - and that was DePaul. I envision that the 'Cats don't want to play true road games - Rutgers and Michigan last year were the only B1G teams that had 2 true road games. The rest only played 1 or none.

Of course, there are "neutral" site games (The 'Cats played in two of them Rhode Island and Mississippi St - Hall of Fame Tipoff - Uncasville, CT. Given our deep ties to recruiting the NEPSAC, I wonder if that's a strategic booking.) - and those are the more likely ways that a B1G team will NOT play at home - and every B1G team played in at least 2 of those.

Even Michigan State, who has the reputation of "anytime, anywhere" didn't play a true road game last year. They had two neutrals (Duke and Arizona), and a "Semi-Home" vs Baylor that was in Detroit.

So, while booking road games may be a path to juice the non-con schedule, I also imagine the 'Cats just won't do 'em outside of the "neutral site" opps is because it's alot to take guys on the road - not just cost, but also time out of the classroom (which is a thing for our program). They'll do enough of that during the B1G - no need to overload that in the tail end of fall quarter.

All this to say, unless the 'Cats become a glamour program in which the "made for TV' non-con tourneys will want them (which we're likely a few more Sweet 16s away from), I envision our non-con is going to remain soft. Especially with the advent of Oregon (kp 55), USC (kp 85), UCLA (kp98) and Washington (kp60) joining the B1G regular season in '25.

Thanks for that. I do remember one year we played at Texas A&M Corpus Christi and they were so excited to have B1G school visit their campus. Unfortunately the game was not televised. I just want a non-con schedule that is not a negative when it comes to deciding if we should make the tourney.

 

[Deeringfish]

Thanks for that. I do remember one year we played at Texas A&M Corpus Christi and they were so excited to have B1G school visit their campus. Unfortunately the game was not televised. I just want a non-con schedule that is not a negative when it comes to deciding if we should make the tourney.

Just win Baby!

 

[pschatz25]

One more opponent to find for next season as ASU has been pushed back to 2025.



Also, these aren't official games, but NU will do a pre-season tour of Italy and Greece.

 

[NUCatswin]

One more opponent to find for next season as ASU has been pushed back to 2025.

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Also, these aren't official games, but NU will do a pre-season tour of Italy and Greece.

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Hmm I wonder why we pushed it back

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

One more opponent to find for next season as ASU has been pushed back to 2025.

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Also, these aren't official games, but NU will do a pre-season tour of Italy and Greece.

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Barnhizer and Nicholson played overseas together two summers ago with Select Team Basketball’s Europe Goodwill Tour. They played at least 5 games against older German, Dutch and Belgian teams, apparently on their own dime.

Seems like they may have convinced their coach how beneficial / fun that summer tour was.

 

[CoralSpringsCat]

Barnhizer and Nicholson played overseas together two summers ago with Select Team Basketball’s Europe Goodwill Tour. They played at least 5 games against older German, Dutch and Belgian teams, apparently on their own dime.

Seems like they may have convinced their coach how beneficial / fun that summer tour was.

I’m guessing Collins already knew the benefits and didn’t need any convincing.

 

[FeralFelidae]

I’m guessing Collins already knew the benefits and didn’t need any convincing.

Well, Kevin Coble evidently didn't see the benefits of a foreign basketball tour.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

I’m guessing Collins already knew the benefits and didn’t need any convincing.

Collins took the team over to Europe in 2019 and 2015, so you're certainly correct that he has experience doing that.

Seems the NCAA has (or had) a rule that each school could only go abroad once every 4 years...

But we didn't go last year when we could have.... Maybe we had to take a Covid year? Or maybe Collins wasn't crazy about going? Or Gragg said "I'm going with you" and Collins lost interest...

Just wondering.

 

[SmellyCat]

Or Gragg said "I'm going with you" and Collins lost interest...

Man, imagine getting stuck on a plane all the way to Europe next to your boss who you don't like. I think I'd rather sit with all the luggage.

 

[IMC Cat]

Rothstein says we’re opening against Lehigh at W-R on Nov 4.

Lehigh was pretty mediocre last season, finishing with a losing record. I hope there are some more marquee non conf games yet to be announced

 

[NUCat320]

Every Rothstein tweet is worth the copy-paste.

Chris Collins. The Pioneer.

 

[CoralSpringsCat]

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

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Huh? Milwaukee. Better be part of of DH with Marquette or Wisky.

 

[CoralSpringsCat]

Huh? Milwaukee. Better be part of of DH with Marquette or Wisky.

Gragg must love cheese!

 

[macarthur31]

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Yeah, I imagine this will be part of a double header given that neither the Cats nor the Ramblin' Wreck are expected to sell out an NBA arena. This is what its gonna take for the 'Cats to play P5 teams - book 'em at neutral site tourneys or doubleheaders.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Yeah, I imagine this will be part of a double header given that neither the Cats nor the Ramblin' Wreck are expected to sell out an NBA arena. This is what its gonna take for the 'Cats to play P5 teams - book 'em at neutral site tourneys or doubleheaders.

Sell out? This game won’t draw flies in Milwaukee. I am not sure it is all that enticing as the first half of a DH featuring Marquette in the second game. I am not sure how this game makes sense unless it’s part of some holiday DH where the winners clash for some made up trophy.

GT already came to WR. Surely our AD should be able to get another Power conference team in WR with a home and home reciprocal arrangement.

 

[macarthur31]

Sell out? This game won’t draw flies in Milwaukee. I am not sure it is all that enticing as the first half of a DH featuring Marquette in the second game. I am not sure how this game makes sense unless it’s part of some holiday DH where the winners clash for some made up trophy.

GT already came to WR. Surely our AD should be able to get another Power conference team in WR with a home and home reciprocal arrangement.

As an NU hoops-mad alum residing just north of Milwaukee, I'm absolutely delighted that I'll likely have a few rows to myself as this is likely the "opening act" of a doubleheader. I believe GT came to WR as part of the ACC-B1G challenge, the made-for-TV exhibition which are mainly the only way for lower mid-tier profile P5 programs are gonna get teams to come to their house. What we don't know: how much is the budget for booking opponents to come here, the willingness of Collins to want to play on the road against a P5 team in non-con to facilitate a "home and home," and finally, the willingness of P5 teams to play a true road game.

As detailed before in other posts, good P5 programs just don't do road games, and if they do, they're likely to be true neutral site games, "semi-neutral" like the Phoenix/Chicago swap for the NU/ASU exchange), or as part of a long-standing rivalry (like the New Mexico vs. New Mexico State as they play in different conferences or "Braggin Rights" which is ILL vs. Mizzou which is played in a neutral site).

Scanning the last few seasons, somehow we got Pitt to come to NU in 2021 and 2023 in the non-con, and that wasn't Gavitt Games related. That may be the highest profile non-con visitor we've been able to land, and maybe that's Coach K coaching tree relationships? (Though, the 'Cats never played Marquette when Woj was up there.)