Can't ever remember road wins being so prohibitively impossible. Hope winning all games in Evanston is enough (with maybe a win or two in neutral court BTT)
Winning on road impossible.... do we make NCAA if we just hold serve at home?
- Thread starter wildcatcoaster
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The atmosphere today was unquestionably in favor of MN, it was very loud--And NU had not recovered from Purdue. it was that simple.
Not nearly as hostile as many B1G venues. We simply broke down. Uncharacteristic turnovers, failure to finish and coaching was poor. Garcia plays the whole OT and a lot of the second half with 4 fouls. I send BB or switch boo and drive. That guy also hit 100 free throws - should not have been in the game.
I say switch boo cuz many screens forced that switch but boo didn’t drive many of those.
Love this team but they really misfired on all cylinders. Refs were bad but not insurmountable. Even my guy Mart couldn’t find the bottom of the rim. MN dunk attempt looked like he was half asleep. He needs to go up trying to break wrists.
I actually had a conversation with my party on the way home about how dead and soft the atmosphere was most of the game. The place was almost half empty and the crowd was completely dead every time MN was down. It wasn’t until the end of the halves when MN had already gone on multiple basket runs to get it to 4 point games where the crowd even woke up. Every opportunity was had to lean on the Gopher team and crowd throats and have them roll over and it was missed.
NU won’t make it just holding serve at home because that would put them at 11-9 in conference with 2 road on the season… DePaul and Penn State. It would also involve losing to Rutgers and Indiana which certainly won’t help the cause.
NU needs to go 7-2 (13-7 conference record) to close out the season to feel very confident and not worry about the BTT. Hold serve at home (easier said than done) and win at Rutgers and Indiana.
The B1G has competitive teams - particularly at home - but it doesn’t have many good teams so 11-9 in conference isn’t impressing anyone. It’s unfortunate because it seems the Cats rise to the occasion and play their best ball agains the best teams. They don’t play enough of those games though.
It’s a weird year for the bigger conferences. The ACC is projected to get 3 teams in right now.
NU needs to go 7-2 (13-7 conference record) to close out the season to feel very confident and not worry about the BTT. Hold serve at home (easier said than done) and win at Rutgers and Indiana.
The B1G has competitive teams - particularly at home - but it doesn’t have many good teams so 11-9 in conference isn’t impressing anyone. It’s unfortunate because it seems the Cats rise to the occasion and play their best ball agains the best teams. They don’t play enough of those games though.
It’s a weird year for the bigger conferences. The ACC is projected to get 3 teams in right now.
Back to the original question, I think your formula is doable. But let's assume there's another loss at home. There are a couple winnable games on the road.
I've always thought 12 BT wins is the magic, no-brainer number for a tourney bid. It would have helped to have that win yesterday. Oh well, onward and upward.
Fwiw, I think this would suggest that the answer posed in the original post is a firm yes
Thank you for, most incredibly, being a voice of reason in a sea of neuroticism here. 13-7 to feel good?! Get’outta’heaarruh,
Two game losing streaks make everyone act nuts
11-9 we are firmly sweating it. 12-8 gets it done. 13-7 gets us a good seed. I think it’s that simple.
It’s truly impossible to know what’s ‘needed’. But, Illinois and Purdue are two wins that will hold up, guaranteed, into Selection Sunday. Most bubble teams, mathematically speaking, *can’t* have those two wins. (Only so many top-15 wins to go around.)
I’m confident that this team is good and will win enough.
If they turn out to be bad or snake-bitten (think: the 2013 football team with the night game loss to OSU followed by the Bucky destruction), then they won’t make it. But yesterday’s game tells me nothing more than playing two conference road games in a week is tough.
I expect a great atmosphere for UNL, and a win.
Through Friday, NU was in 84 of 85 at BracketMatrix.
I’m confident that this team is good and will win enough.
If they turn out to be bad or snake-bitten (think: the 2013 football team with the night game loss to OSU followed by the Bucky destruction), then they won’t make it. But yesterday’s game tells me nothing more than playing two conference road games in a week is tough.
I expect a great atmosphere for UNL, and a win.
Through Friday, NU was in 84 of 85 at BracketMatrix.
Our road losses have been Wisconsin, Purdue, Illinois, Nebraska, and Minnesota. That's pretty much the top of the conference. Just chill out; not many teams would win those games, so I find it reassuring that the 'Cats had a chance in most of those games and got their revenge at home against Illinois. The 'Cats have some winnable road games coming up.
I like having 2 home games in a row coming up. Plus Saturday to Wednesday is a good rest. I expect the team to come out looking good for the next two.
Whomever came up with those probabilities is pretending they know something about statistics.
I mean those numbers are crazy.
They also track with Bracket Matrix, which tends to be pretty darn accurate. The top six are in a minimum of 82 of 86 projections (both Nebraska and MSU), and the remaining conference teams are totally unmentioned.
I don’t really agree with PWB, but it is possible there is an overfit/under-uncertainty going on in their model. Same kinda phenomenon the Upshot had the same poll numbers and final popular vote average as 538 in 2016 but projected like some absurd 99% chance Hillary would win rather than a 2-1 chance. Underestimating the chance or nature of error.
Its a big mistake to think that if a team is in 95% of the current bracket projections that means there's a 95% chance that team will be in the tournament.
It just means that everybody has roughly the same methodology and is applying it to games that have been played. So if Maryland wins a couple, most bracket projections will suddenly have them in the tournament field.
This site has us at 43% to get a bid. It views the loss yesterday as very harmful, having taken us from 57% to 43% by itself. I have zero idea what the methodology is other than it simulates the rest of the season under some methodology and then applies some kind of unknown bid odds system.
We’ll see what the bracketologists say Monday. We’re in a phase like last year where nearly every game is pretty big.
We’ll see what the bracketologists say Monday. We’re in a phase like last year where nearly every game is pretty big.
Lol
Bracketology 2024: Odds To Make The NCAA Tournament
NCAA bracketology for 2024 from the number crunchers at TeamRankings.com. Our algorithmic models project all 362 NCAA teams and update daily.
www.teamrankings.com
Oh really, big news. Lose four of nine and they are likely out. It is now very tight, since wins against MSU, Maryland and Indiana (yes, Indiana) will be very tough, and that's just for starters. This is a very good team, who can play the best to the finish (but unfortunately come up short). This team can win out, but will they?
Right now on Torvik's site, if we win out at home and lose out on the road to go 11-9, we are out of the tourney with a first round BTT loss, in the play in with 2nd round BTT loss, and a 9 or 10-seed if we go 2-1 in the BTT.
If we win out at home and pick one up on the road (non-MD or MSU) to go 12-8, we're play-in with a 1st round BTT exit, a 10-seed with a 2nd round BTT loss, and a 9 or 10-seed if we go 2-1 in the BTT.
If we win out at home and pick 2 up on the road (non-MD or MSU) to go 13-7, we're a 10-seed with a 1st or 2nd round BTT loss, and a 9-seed if we go 2-1 in the BTT.
Things are not as dire as they seem after this past week, but we are definitely losing our margin for error. 2-0 this week is an absolute must though.
Also, what we do isn't happening in a bubble (no pun intended) - the ACC and P12 are weak, with only 3 and 2 teams respectively looking "secure" at the moment (UNC, Duke, Clemson, Arizona, Utah), the BE only has 3 secure teams (UConn, Marquette, Creighton), and we have 4 wins over projected top-6 seeds that most other teams don't have (Purdue, Illinois, Dayton, MSU).
If we win out at home and pick one up on the road (non-MD or MSU) to go 12-8, we're play-in with a 1st round BTT exit, a 10-seed with a 2nd round BTT loss, and a 9 or 10-seed if we go 2-1 in the BTT.
If we win out at home and pick 2 up on the road (non-MD or MSU) to go 13-7, we're a 10-seed with a 1st or 2nd round BTT loss, and a 9-seed if we go 2-1 in the BTT.
Things are not as dire as they seem after this past week, but we are definitely losing our margin for error. 2-0 this week is an absolute must though.
Also, what we do isn't happening in a bubble (no pun intended) - the ACC and P12 are weak, with only 3 and 2 teams respectively looking "secure" at the moment (UNC, Duke, Clemson, Arizona, Utah), the BE only has 3 secure teams (UConn, Marquette, Creighton), and we have 4 wins over projected top-6 seeds that most other teams don't have (Purdue, Illinois, Dayton, MSU).
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The MN game kinda was our margin for error. Narrowly favored game on the road for a team that is on track but still needs to add every win it can get, dropping one it coulda shoulda had hurts. Now Rutgers approaches must win or you’re forced to, at a minimum, go to Assembly Hall and beat the Hoosiers or something.
Nebraska played very well last night at Illinois, losing in OT. They had previously struggled badly on the road.
And they have Juwan Gary back - he is their 6th man and didn't play against us in Lincoln.
Rienk Mast, their center, only attempted one 3 pointer against NU, but has been bombing away from outside the arc since then, making 13 of 27 in only 4 games. A new approach that matches up well with NU.
Wednesday night we had better score a lot of points or we'll be 6-6 in the conference.
And they have Juwan Gary back - he is their 6th man and didn't play against us in Lincoln.
Rienk Mast, their center, only attempted one 3 pointer against NU, but has been bombing away from outside the arc since then, making 13 of 27 in only 4 games. A new approach that matches up well with NU.
Wednesday night we had better score a lot of points or we'll be 6-6 in the conference.
Everything you say makes complete sense. 100%. And yet, I would be not be surprised, at all, if, against UNL, we won by 20 while Nebraska barely scoring above 50.
Not that it matters, but all I heard this past week was that Northwestern is clearly a tournament team. The comments were genuine. BigTen is crazy, but I'd be surprised if you are not in.
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