I wasn’t a Kellogg guy, but a business school type of analysis makes some sense to me; since I’m an almost geriatric mathematician, forgive me for not being the sharpest user of business school jargon.
I have always thought Collins was a smart hire. He brought the family name, Duke pedigree and Chicago area roots that allowed him to get a few recruits that bought into the “let’s build the Duke of the Midwest and I will be on the ground floor” mentality, which brought BMac, Law and Lindsey. He figured out how to use Lumpkin, saw the potential in Pardon (who was a decent but not top 200 prospect) and got to the tourney. Since then, the combination of coaching philosophy (play like Duke plays) and recruiting limitations that arise academically and historically from NU being NU, and the B1G being a brutal conference have resulted in some bad years. The players are not quite good enough relative to the style of ball, and the teams have been locked near the cellar. Collins’ best value to NU was the promise of change with a plausible path to success. That value has been spent, and a few consecutive years of success that would have been needed to validate the initial premise in the long term have not materialized.
Maybe the combination of new recruits and current talent make next year magic. I hope so, but for analysis’ sake let’s assume next year is another losing season, leading to a coaching change. What are Northwestern’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats relative to finding a coach for its program?
Strengths to me would be that the University is academically world-class, that the support facilities and staff are high quality, that the B1G is a top conference and the Chicago area is high profile. Television revenue tied to the B1G also gives a fair amount of salary leverage.
Weaknesses are that academic recruiting standards bar a number of good players, the history isn’t there, the fan base is small.
Opportunities are that college basketball has moved toward shorter college careers for top talent (one and done), the game has expanded radically internationally due to the NBA’s success, and despite the one tournament team, the aura of making NU competitive would make a coach’s reputation for life, or give a name coach with a fading reputation one last shot at glory.
Threats are that immediate success is not very likely, and any hire would need to weather a few really thin years since the B1G is so tough, that big donors might lose patience and put away their checkbooks, and that an ambitious up and coming coach or a fading name coach might cut corners and bruise the university’s reputation.
I personally think the profile for an incoming coach could go one of two ways.
One way would be to plan on building a team around international recruits, and recruit a coach who either is currently coaching internationally or who has great connections internationally. The best model for this might be St. Mary’s, which had almost nothing going for it but became a development team for the Australian National team. The visibilty of the B1G, the fact that Chicago is an internationally recognized city, and the quality of the academics all make NU a possibility for this strategy.
The second way is to recognize that NU won’t get one and done’s and find a mid major coach who emphasizes interior defense, rebounding and a slow game using players who develop into the style over a longer cycle. This is essentially the Wisconsin model.
In either case, I think success is a pretty long way away. More and more, though, I think going the international recruiting model might be NU’s best bet post-Collins, whenever that is and assuming he doesn’t in a last gasp start to win consistently.
