ubercat said:

Karma’s a Birch

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Sheffielder said:

This third-game/redshirting thing is a concern to me, as well.

I will say for myself...college football is the only sport I really follow. I've never particularly cared for the NFL, largely because of how quickly the players move from one team to another (same for MLB, etc.) And well...here we are.

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CappyNU said:

Per Massey, which used to be one of the BCS rating systems, we have a 12.8% chance of losing out - roughly 1 in 8 shot; a 32.4% chance of winning 1 more game; a 32.8% chance at winning 2 more games (0.004% chance that the 2 games are OSU and Michigan); a 15.2% chance of winning 3 games, and a 6.8% chance of winning 4 or more games and going bowling.

Obviously this doesn't take into account win probabilities changing after each additional game.

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FeralFelidae said:

Use whatever percentages you like. If Sagarin gives a 5% chance of winning a game, then you add 0.05 to the total. If it's 26%, then you add 0.26.

You tell us. Give us the percentage chance you assign for each game and then add them up. That (plus the 2 we already won) is your expected win total.

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Purple Pile Driver said:

The 1950’s were a great decade.

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