So, through Rutgers' first 20 games, they were one of the worst offensive teams in the country, had been rotating 10 different players in games with 6 different starting lineups, and were 10-10 (2-7). Then, Jeremiah Williams became eligible. Since then, they've won 3 in a row and are an entirely different, much more dangerous, team.
Williams was a two-time transfer (Temple, Iowa State) who had to sit out like all of the other ones until the NCAA was overruled back in December, however he was also involved in the Iowa gambling scandal and thus had a 15-game suspension given to him from the NCAA. He only became eligible 3 games ago after suing the NCAA and winning.
As a result, Williams has become an immediate starter, their rotation has shrunk to 9 players, and they have been playing significantly better, even while taking their leading scorer Aundre Hyatt out of the starting lineup.
So, a current scouting report:
Derek Simpson is the starting PG, a sophomore who was a SG last year, and scored 12 points on 13 shots against us in the regular season finale in 2023. This year he has transformed his role into more of a passer, who takes fewer shots but gets to the line more frequently, where he shoots 85%. He is not a great shooter otherwise, but he is an excellent defender, averaging 1.4 steals/game in conference, but 2.2 steals/game in the last 4.
Simpson is backed up by Noah Fernandes, a 5'11" grad transfer from UMass who had started the first 14 games but has seen his minutes reduced during conference play. Up until their last game against Wisconsin, he had done very little in conference play, but then he scored 17 points on 6-6 shooting including 5 threes. Fernandes had lost his starting job to 7th-year player Austin Williams, however Williams has seen his minutes drop to 0 since Williams returned.
The starting SG is freshman Jamichael Davis, who is largely a black hole on offense, but must clearly be an impact defender to earn the minutes he has been playing. He is a terrible shooter and has a 1:1 assist/turnover ratio, but does average 0.9 steals/game. In the last 3 games though, his A/T ratio is 2.75:1, and is averaging 3.7 rebounds and 1.3 steals/game in 25mpg.
Back to Jeremiah Williams. He played two seasons at Temple as their PG, then transferred to Iowa State but tore his achilles before the season began, and missed the entire year. He missed nearly 2 years between the injury and gambling scandal, but has established himself as Rutgers' best offensive threat already as a 3rd guard. He has become a volume shooter but still retains his passing skills, picking up 7 assists against Wisconsin over the weekend. Hopefully we have enough tape on him from the last 3 games to plan how to defend him.
As mentioned before, Aundre Hyatt has been removed from the starting lineup with Williams becoming eligible. Last year Hyatt had a good game in their win over us, but we shut him down in the 2nd matchup when we beat them. He shoots the most 3s of anyone on the team, but again, until the game against Wisconsin when he made 3-5, he had largely been ineffective, shooting 25% in conference play. With Williams eligible, he is shooting less, but remains a solid defender, averaging 0.8 steals/game.
Mawot Mag is the 4th starter, in his 4th year at Rutgers. Last year he had a solid 1st game against us but only played 15 minutes due to foul trouble, then suffered a season-ending injury in February that kept him out until mid-December this year. Once he returned, he immediately moved into the starting lineup, where he has been one of their best defenders. In the 3 games prior to Williams becoming eligible, Mag was in a huge slump, going 1-15 shooting with a total of 2 points scored. However in the last 3 games, Mag has averaged 14 points/game, up from 9.7 pre-Williams in conference.
Cliff Omoruyi is the final starter and starting C. He is a beast of a player, the best shot blocker in the league, and one of the best rebounders as well. Stop me if you've read this already, but Williams has brought out the best in him this season as well. Against Wisconsin, he nearly had a triple-double with 13 points, 13 board and 8 blocks. His one weakness is foul shooting, where he's only a 54% shooter in conference play. When he's not in foul trouble, he generally plays 30mpg, so hopefully Big Matt can get him on the bench. His backup had been Antwone Woolfolk for much of the season, but he's pretty terrible, and coinciding with Williams returning is a larger behemoth in Emmanuel Ogbole, who returned from a torn ACL and is playing 8mpg.
Which brings us to the final player of the current rotation, Gavin Griffiths. A goofy-looking goggles-wearing freshman who has largely struggled this season. He saw a lot of playing time early in the season, but less so during conference play. There's not much to say about him, other than that he takes and misses a lot of shots when he's in the game.
In their 3-game winning streak, their starters have held their opposition to a disgustingly-low 0.62 points/possession while playing 24% of the minutes, winning 45-31. Their second most used lineup, swapping Hyatt for the freshman Davis, is their best lineup, at +10 in 8% of minutes, scoring 1.44 PPP against 0.77 PPP. Their next two most used lineups have Williams on the bench, and their defense suffers, giving up 21 points in 20 possessions for a PPP of 1.05.
Since the start of 2024, Rutgers has the best defense in the country, while we have had the 10th best offense in the country. Their defense has only gotten better, and their offense has improved even more significantly. If we're going to win this one without Berry, it's going to need to be even more of a rock fight than the PSU game was. Having been to a game at the former RAC earlier this season, their crowd gets loud, their students are vulgar, and given the past three games, I'm guessing that they will be pretty rabid, especially if they get off to another hot start like they did against the Badgers.
Don't sleep on the Scarlet Knights.
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