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Not a lot to draw a crowd

Was looking at the NU basketball schedule to see which games I might attend before the end of 2022...

Here are the choices...

DateDayTimeOpponent2022 RatingInterest
Nov 2Wednesday7 pmQuincy Hawks---none
Nov 7Monday7 pmChicago State57.55very low
Nov 11Friday7 pmN. Illinois63.19low
Nov 18Friday7 pmPU - Fort Wayne67.52low
Nov 28Monday8 pmPittsburgh72.87medium
Dec 11Sunday1 pmPrairie View63.75low
Dec 17Saturday1 pmDe Paul78.37medium
Dec 20Tuesday8 pmIllinois-Chicago65.00low
Dec 29ThursdaynoonBrown69.75low

We play ONE out-of-conference road game (at Georgetown) because of the Gavitt Games between the Big Ten and Big East. In other words, a mandatory game.

Northwestern was rated 80.21 last year (by Sagarin).

There's just not much quality NCAA basketball to justify the effort to attend.

Where some of it went wrong

1) Recruiting was mediocre even after excellent years, legendary coach, excellent facilities, proximity of Chicago, world class education etc. We never capitalized nearly as much as we should have due to poor recruiters on the coaching staff and a silly theory that offering fewer kids meant something to the kid...when usually it doesn't. Anderson proved you can recruit well when still losing...there are no excuses. Always thinking that some building or facility or winning would make a drastic difference in recruiting...when many times it's just relationships and hard work.
2) An incredibly stubborn head coach who sits on 6 point leads with a half to go, has a loyalty to bad coaches and recruiters, hates criticism or perceived criticism from the two things he hates the most...the press and the fans. He almost would rather lose than listen to his critics.
3) He was horrible at recruiting QB's and worse at developing them. Maybe when we actually have a 17 point lead(rare) you let the backup QB throw the ball on short patterns instead of handing the ball off 50 times to end the game. No highly recruited QB wants to be QB in a boring ball control offense.

4) a fanbase(you want to call it that) that couldn't see the faults and shutdown all criticism because they thought we were a few plays away in a championship game against OSU, but the truth is if we played OSU 100 times with the teams we would have lost 85. The talent level was ridiculously lopsided and the gap is even greater today. That to go with the fact they would rather spend time in a parking lot drinking than watching the game and when at the game sit on their hands and try to run off non alumni fans...proves our fans are as big a mess as our current program.
5) Bad coaching hires on both offense and defense and a loyalty to coaches who went to NU or have ties to NU. The OC and DC hires are equally rotten. Will never get why the OC gets a pass when he can't develop QB's!
6) Not using the transfer portal as well as we should.
7) the transfer rules! only the current year matters...getting a great recruiting class means nothing when they can all leave the next year. We would have lost several All- Americans in past years if those rules existed back then. These rules are a problem for a program for NU.

And now the future is pretty bleak. i don't expect many changes because Fitz would have to eat crap..and this dude will never admit he was mismanaged the program and his biggest mistakes were when we were a winning program. I knew this year would be terrible as I didn't see much difference from last year...and they have lived down to my expectations.

Skoronski the Outlier

An article in The Athletic today about players who are "outliers", with physical characteristics which are out of the norm for their position. Here is the take on Peter:

Peter Skoronski, LT, Northwestern*​

What makes him an outlier?

Ideally, NFL teams are looking for 34-plus inches in terms of arm length for offensive tackles (with a minimum of 33 inches).

Mitchell Schwartz and Joe Staley both had 33 1/2-inch arms and were Pro Bowlers. There was plenty of debate surrounding Rashawn Slater (Skoronski’s former teammate) in the 2021 NFL Draft because of his 33-inch arms, but he earned All-Pro status at left tackle as a rookie. However, it is rare to see an offensive tackle with sub-33-inch arms become a high-level NFL tackle. For many teams, that calls for an automatic move to guard or center.

NFL area scouts who have visited Northwestern this fall believe Skoronski’s arms will measure between 32 and 32 1/2 inches at the Scouting Combine in February.

Why might he be an exception?

In studying him over the summer, I was on board with Skoronski following the Zack Martin path as a college left tackle who ultimately moved inside to guard (Martin had 32 7/8-inch arms). However, Skoronski is giving NFL teams reason to believe he should stay outside.

As both a pass blocker and run blocker, Skoronski explodes out of his stance with control to gain the upper hand on defenders. He has vice grips for hands and rarely misfires with his punch. And even when defenders get into his body, Skoronski can sit down and anchor against power. His processing is extremely impressive and allows him to play fast and cover up any deficiencies.

In 311 pass-blocking snaps through seven games, Skoronski has allowed zero sacks and only three pressures, according to Pro Football Focus. No other tackle in college football (with at least 300 snaps) has three or fewer pressures allowed.

While I still believe Skoronski could be an outstanding NFL guard, I am grading him as an offensive tackle and would like to see him get a chance on the outside.

We could actually win on Saturday

I know, I know, we all are aware of how terrible this season has been, but there is a real formula to winning this weekend. It’s not fun, but it’s the path to victory.

- Have a very conservative game plan. A lot of runs and easy passes on offense. On defense, play a lot of base coverages that ensure no missed assignments or easy gains because of miscommunication.
- No turnovers. This is always important, but even more so this weekend against a team that relies on special teams and defense to win games. A punt is better than an INT.
- Make Iowa drive the field. No big plays. They have a talented TE room as always, but nothing at QB, WR, or RB and a weak offensive line. Make them sustain long drives.
- Get a few early stops. Their offense has been so terrible this year that if you get a few early stops with no points, it’s going to be “here we go again” in their minds.

We’re bad, but Iowa is a mess right now too. Their offense is significantly worse than ours (admittedly, their defense is way better), so don’t beat yourself, make them beat us.

This is not a “we’re gonna win” prediction, but this is a very winnable game. Take care of the ball, play smart, and we’ve got a real shot.

Pardon me for having some hope.

FOOTBALL Well, I asked Fitz about Jim O'Neil

It doesn't sound like JON is going anywhere anytime soon.

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Now, the question is whether Fitz is just saying this in front of the N. He might be saying something different to his staff behind closed doors. Remember, he publicly supported Mick McCall up until the day he was fired.

But he said he believes in his players and his coaches, and that they'll turn it around. He actually said this, too:

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I don't think anyone is buying that one.

But watch the video when it gets posted. It was vintage Fitz.

What's Worse

I see a lot of talk about firing JON, but when I look at the statistics, the 2022 scoring defense is actually ranked in the 3rd quartile nationally at #82 out of 131 teams at 28.1 points per game. Meanwhile, the 2022 scoring offense is in the 4th quartile at #118 out of #131 teams at 18.6 points per game. I understand the 2021 defense under "JON" immediately gave up almost twice what was given up under Hankwitz in his last year and that it is about the same so far in 2022. However, the Bajakian offense is not doing much more than Mick McCall's the last couple of years and it is actually doing worse than what a normal McCall offense might get (mid-20s average and as high as 29.2 as recently as 2017):

NU TEAM SCORING POINTS PER GAM (2012-2022), SEASON RECORD
2012 Offense - 31.7, Defense - 22.5, Record (10-3)
2013 Offense - 26.2, Defense - 27.1, Record (5-7)
2014 Offense - 23.0, Defense - 25.2, Record (5-7)
2015 Offense - 19.5 , Defense - 18.6, Record (10-3)
2016 Offense - 26.0, Defense - 22.2, Record (7-6)
2017 Offense - 29.2, Defense - 20.1, Record (10-3)
2018 Offense - 24.2, Defense - 23.2, Record (9-5)
2019 Offense - 16.3, Defense - 23.6, Record (3-9)
2020 Offense - 24.7, Defense - 15.9, Record (7-2)
2021 Offense - 16.6, Defense - 29.0, Record (3-9)
2022 Offense - 18.6, Defense - 28.1, Record (1-6)

The 2020 Offense did improve significantly from McCall's last year in 2019 by than 8 points per game, but that was probably mostly ensured by having an experienced Big-Ten graduate transfer quarterback in Peyton Ramsey plus the irregularities of the COVID-shut down year and plus being in a position to improve off of the troubled year replacing a 4-year starting quarterback in 2019. The 2021 and 2022 scoring offense has dropped back to where McCall left off, which was similar to McCall's worst years. Why isn't more heat placed on the offensive coaching when it is actually ranked worse as a unit nationally than the defense? Is it just the stark contrast with the drop off in defensive performance between Hankwitz and JON? Is it that in continuing to rely on Tresselball, we expect more out of the defense?
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