Amateur hour with Coach Fitz

[NUCat320]

The anecdotal examples do not compel me, Brian Kelly's dignity notwithstanding. Your math above actually favors the 2 point try, but your math above is also closer to the NFL data (50% conversion rate on 2 point tries vs. the college success rate which hovers below 45%) than the NCAA data.

I understand your thinking, I just don't agree.

I would challenge you to find an example where going for two in a game, and making it, drastically changed the upside. I've shown the downside is severe.

Of course, if you did that, I'd question your sanity. I've been beating the 'Go for 2 only when you have to' drum for 15 years, so I've got those at the ready. I am a gigantic loser. (There are others, but those are my favorites.)

 

[Hungry Jack]

I think the rule boils down to not going for two unless you almost have to go for two because your future possessions are very limited and this may be your only chance to position yourself to tie the game.