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Big Ten O/U

Purple Pile Driver

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May 14, 2014
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Ok, looks like the Big Ten over/under for wins in the tournament is 8.
Have a strong lean to the Under. The 8/9 seeds don’t help the Big. Think the only way this goes over is two teams going off to final 8. Seems too obvious, so it worries me. What do the pundits on here think?
 
Purdue will inevitably choke, Illinois doesn't play enough defense, Wisconsin is one of the most popular upset picks in round 1, and highly unlikely that you get more than 4 wins out of the 8/9 teams. You could get to the over though should Purdue, Illinois and Wisconsin make the S16 and each of the 8/9 teams wins the opening round game.
 
Ok, looks like the Big Ten over/under for wins in the tournament is 8.
Have a strong lean to the Under. The 8/9 seeds don’t help the Big. Think the only way this goes over is two teams going off to final 8. Seems too obvious, so it worries me. What do the pundits on here think?
I think it’s basically a bet on Purdue and Illinois. I would take over 8 personally but that’s a pretty narrow one.

I like Miss St over Mich St. Neb aTm I view as a tossup. If I had to pick I would take us over FAU but there’s some bias. Call that 1.5 wins. You either need IL to get 3 wins or Purdue to get 4-5. I kinda like the Purdue revenge run this year story line (circa UVA after losing to a 16). It’s a good line.
 
I really don't think Purdue is good enough to match up with some of the faster, more athletic teams that play in other conferences. I don't have them making the Sweet 16 in any of my brackets. I think Braden Smith gets exposed like he did against Wisconsin. Edey will get his buckets, but he can't score 70 points by himself.

Illinois is the team I think has the greatest chance to make some noise. They match up better with the other styles you see around the country. They have a dynamic playmaker and just enough size and athleticism across the board.

Michigan State is a mystery. They have talent, but have underperformed all year. I could see them getting hot and making the Sweet 16, but they may also be done by tonight.

Wisconsin is playing well lately, so I could see them winning a couple games, but I don't think they are talented enough, particularly inside, to go beyond the second or third round.

I have no idea what to think about Nebraska. I think my mind can't compute that they might be any good, so I keep thinking of them as pathetic ol' Nebraska.

I want so badly for us to win tomorrow, but I just don't see how we beat a team with that kind of returning experience when we are starting a walk-on and two bench guys (though Martinelli has clearly flourished). Even if the guys who are now starting have stepped up, the problem is that the drop off when you go to your bench now is huge! We were dangerous when Martinelli was a sixth man off the bench providing some spark. Now we have no spark off the bench and our main guys get worn down.
 
I really don't think Purdue is good enough to match up with some of the faster, more athletic teams that play in other conferences. I don't have them making the Sweet 16 in any of my brackets. I think Braden Smith gets exposed like he did against Wisconsin. Edey will get his buckets, but he can't score 70 points by himself.

Illinois is the team I think has the greatest chance to make some noise. They match up better with the other styles you see around the country. They have a dynamic playmaker and just enough size and athleticism across the board.

Michigan State is a mystery. They have talent, but have underperformed all year. I could see them getting hot and making the Sweet 16, but they may also be done by tonight.

Wisconsin is playing well lately, so I could see them winning a couple games, but I don't think they are talented enough, particularly inside, to go beyond the second or third round.

I have no idea what to think about Nebraska. I think my mind can't compute that they might be any good, so I keep thinking of them as pathetic ol' Nebraska.

I want so badly for us to win tomorrow, but I just don't see how we beat a team with that kind of returning experience when we are starting a walk-on and two bench guys (though Martinelli has clearly flourished). Even if the guys who are now starting have stepped up, the problem is that the drop off when you go to your bench now is huge! We were dangerous when Martinelli was a sixth man off the bench providing some spark. Now we have no spark off the bench and our main guys get worn down.
Reasonable take. I like Purdue more and have them in my final four, but agree on the other non-NU teams. I think we win handily tomorrow. Also, we play a walk on but Smith doesn't start.
 
Conference teams are favored in 5 of the 6 first round games (we are the only underdog). Say that holds. Purdue and Illinois will both be favorites in round 2, which could get to 7 just going chalk.
 
Reasonable take. I like Purdue more and have them in my final four, but agree on the other non-NU teams. I think we win handily tomorrow. Also, we play a walk on but Smith doesn't start.
That's right. I was thinking back to the Langborg injury game. But, you're right... he is the first wing off the bench. Still the drop between him as the sixth man and Martinelli as the sixth man is a big drop.
 
Yeah, I think Purdue's success will be determined by its guard play. Last year they were wet behind the ears and got embarrassed quickly. With a year more of experience, Smith shouldn't be the liability he was last year, but I'm not sure how far they go beyond game 1.

Nebraska will depend on pouring in the points to advance.

Illinois has the most athleticism and might advance just by overwhelming their opponents, but once talent isn't enough they're done.

Wisconsin is really well coached and should advance until coaching isn't enough to match talent. I think they'll make some noise.

I'm always hopeful Izzo can get his team further than expected, but that's a low bar this year.

And our beloved Cats will need to have at least four starters in double digits to advance, imho. It's our success at balanced attacks that allow Boo to run wild, and we're going to give up a lot of points at the rim.
 
Astounding, Michigan State from the weak sister Big Ten just crushed Mississippi State by 19. How did that happen? ;)
 
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Yeah, I think Purdue's success will be determined by its guard play. Last year they were wet behind the ears and got embarrassed quickly. With a year more of experience, Smith shouldn't be the liability he was last year, but I'm not sure how far they go beyond game 1.

Nebraska will depend on pouring in the points to advance.

Illinois has the most athleticism and might advance just by overwhelming their opponents, but once talent isn't enough they're done.

Wisconsin is really well coached and should advance until coaching isn't enough to match talent. I think they'll make some noise.

I'm always hopeful Izzo can get his team further than expected, but that's a low bar this year.

And our beloved Cats will need to have at least four starters in double digits to advance, imho. It's our success at balanced attacks that allow Boo to run wild, and we're going to give up a lot of points at the rim.
Izzo already has.
 
I picked against Izzo. Oh well....

Happy though as I like Michigan State.
 
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Dayton really went down the drain in the last couple of weeks, They are looking bad today. I wonder if that coach might be in some trouble, Their big guy will be going pro.
 
I picked against Izzo. Oh well....

Happy though as I like Michigan State.
It felt like Miss St got weaker as the season went on while Mich St got better. I think they have a chance against NC. In general, I think the SEC teams were overrated and so far they are proving that. I’ll make an exception for Tennessee. That team should breeze into the Elite 8 and their game against Purdue should be wild.
 
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Samford Kansas was great too, with a terrible blown call at the end to spoil it
It was a real shame the call was made, but that is a really hard play for a ref to get to position. Almost every time on a play like that there is contact and a foul; the offensive player had a strong advantage, and as a trailing ref, if you don’t have clear vision you blow the whistle. Imagine the uproar from the Kansas fans if there was no whistle and replay showed contact.
 
Imagine the uproar from the Kansas fans if there was no whistle and replay showed contact.
Exactly, Kansas fans = loud uproar. Imagine the uproar of the Samford fans? Barely audible. And there's the reason usually tough calls go the way of the Kansas of the world.

Couple of tough calls yesterday in the KY/Oakland game that went the way of Kentucky made me think that, if they were reversed, Oakland would not get the call.
 
Halfway to 8. Conference under performed by 1 game considering we had 5 favorites. I am with Greenie: 6 wins for NU.
 
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Illinois has come out this weekend looking ready to win three before they run into the purple buzzsaw.

So, NU’s six and Illinois’ three takes care of it, and Purdue’s bonus one and MSU’s inevitable one-and-done give breathing room. Piss off, Wisky and Nebraska.
 
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Ok, looks like the Big Ten over/under for wins in the tournament is 8.
Have a strong lean to the Under. The 8/9 seeds don’t help the Big. Think the only way this goes over is two teams going off to final 8. Seems too obvious, so it worries me. What do the pundits on here think?
One thing for sure. There are going to be at least 5 losses
 
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