Thought I’d redirect our discussion on this from some other threads and see where the group is at given the little mini-streak here. Where does everybody stand on Collins given the final season result?
Collins: Stay or Go Criteria
- Thread starter AdamOnFirst
- Start date
There’s obviously been progress. It’s good they’re winning. Two of the three wins have large asterisks (blown huge lead, playing against half a roster).
I’m don’t think there’s been enough progress. NU’s ‘luck’ shows he has enough bad tendencies as a coach and that NU wins below its talent.
BUT…
I think he’s mislabeled Nance and Kopp as his alphas, and the program has been held back as a result.
He’s got a true alpha, and he wears #0, and he’ll be a senior next year. Tell Boo it’s his team. Let Boo play 35 minutes a night. Convince Greer to come back.
Concurrently, reprioritize POUND THE ROCK and hard-nosed defense because, you know what, Roper and Audige both defend well and board well.
And even if Nance returns, this is Boo’s team. There is no obvious successor to Boo in the program.
NCAA or actual bust in 2022-23. Give CCC another chance, a final chance.
I’m don’t think there’s been enough progress. NU’s ‘luck’ shows he has enough bad tendencies as a coach and that NU wins below its talent.
BUT…
I think he’s mislabeled Nance and Kopp as his alphas, and the program has been held back as a result.
He’s got a true alpha, and he wears #0, and he’ll be a senior next year. Tell Boo it’s his team. Let Boo play 35 minutes a night. Convince Greer to come back.
Concurrently, reprioritize POUND THE ROCK and hard-nosed defense because, you know what, Roper and Audige both defend well and board well.
And even if Nance returns, this is Boo’s team. There is no obvious successor to Boo in the program.
NCAA or actual bust in 2022-23. Give CCC another chance, a final chance.
Reasonable take. Boo has played well of late, but I'm not sure that he's the #1 on a good team. Would be interesting to see how he would handle being the focus of a defense.
I have not changed my mind from where I was in the beginning of the season. 9 wins, not counting BTT.
When you break it down, it is winning 4 of 7 through the end of the season. Not that tall a task when:
1) We play MN twice
2) We play PSU once
3) We play UNL once
9 wins is, for me, disappointing. We have talent for more. But that's the floor. I guess that means NIT or bust.
I'm really tired of the recycled arguments of trending up. We win 7 or 8? WTF? We won 6 last year and that was terrible in itself. And we're happy to add 1 or 2 wins to it? Trending up? We were on a 3 game winning streak to end last year.
I hate pound the rock. BS. It's more like bang your head against the wall. Does nothing, but at least it will feel good when you stop.
When you break it down, it is winning 4 of 7 through the end of the season. Not that tall a task when:
1) We play MN twice
2) We play PSU once
3) We play UNL once
9 wins is, for me, disappointing. We have talent for more. But that's the floor. I guess that means NIT or bust.
I'm really tired of the recycled arguments of trending up. We win 7 or 8? WTF? We won 6 last year and that was terrible in itself. And we're happy to add 1 or 2 wins to it? Trending up? We were on a 3 game winning streak to end last year.
I hate pound the rock. BS. It's more like bang your head against the wall. Does nothing, but at least it will feel good when you stop.
Need some sort of positive momentum heading into next year. Whether that’s making the NIT or not. Need to finish strong. Need progress to prove that this program is heading in the right direction. Something that worries me is we finish the season poorly, lose any type of momentum we have gained, lose a few big pieces due to transfers and end up right where we were a few seasons ago. Except this scenario would be worse because we aren’t bringing in the type of class we had with Nance, Kopp, Young, and Greer and we last made the tournament 5 seasons ago rather than 2. The optimist in me doesn’t think that would be the case but it would be the true doomsday scenario and I think it would more than likely seal CCs fate.
when you say "We play MN twice" you mean Matt Nicholson, right?
I look at this season and my projection of 9 wins and know that we should have more than that.
Williams has been better than I expected. Collins has been even more stubborn than I expected.
The roster is there to be about 5th in the conference and yet here we are.
First, let's be clear. Barring a collapse 0-fer, I cannot envision Gragg firing him. I know the choices in the poll say "should" but I am being realistic. He will most likely be here next year. So - back to "should". The rest of the year will tell a lot about the team and coach. If they beat the 4 weaker teams on the list and lose the rest, that's a winning season, and "should" allow for another year. A "prove it or lose it" year. A Scott Frost year.
Less than 4 wins makes us .500 or less, means we lost to more weak teams, and that the coach and team just aren't there. He "should" be fired
Less than 4 wins makes us .500 or less, means we lost to more weak teams, and that the coach and team just aren't there. He "should" be fired
I don’t think we can fire Collins until Britney is truly free.
I am not even sure Cragg watches the game. I see him hand out the promotional sponsor basketball at the first timeout each game and then he seems to vanish. Not sure if he has a special hiding spot where he smoozes the fat cats or he is back in Glenview eating a plate of pasta on his his TV tray while watching BTN. I just don’t see him making a move unless there is a total collapse to end the season. The more interesting discussion might revolve around who stays in this age of the portal/free agency.
Yeah, this has bothered me just a little bit since Cragg became AD. Part of it is magnified by how visible Phillips was at virtually every FB and BB game in comparison, but it would be nice if Cragg were just a little more present and engaged at games. I understand that he probably has his own style of management and he should be true to his own personality, but man, I do miss Phillips for his energy and enthusiasm for all things purple while he was our AD.
That is truly the gamechanger of the current age. Recruiting has changed to not just getting good high school seniors to Evanston, but to managing expectations and keeping guys here while getting wins in the portal. You are now recruiting players through their four+ years of college. Every college team (including NU) faces the potential departure of over half its roster every season through graduation and eyes wandering to where the grass is greener. The off-season is going to speak volumes about the program as well.
This will be an important offseason for CCC in that respect. He only lost Kopp last year and that turned out to be a plus.. Nance is probably gone but he needs to hold onto the veteran core of the team AND find a future point guard. Two bigs coming in would seem to mitigate the loss of Nance who really hasn't played all that well lately, especially on offense.
There's a lot left to play for this season, particularly if we can bag a major upset in one of the next two.
Collins will be back if we win those 4 games. Collins is probably back regardless, unless we skid out from here. But for now I'll maintain Champagne (and Champaign, as it were) dreams and hope we can rattle off 5 or 6 and get ourselves into bubble consideration heading into the BTT.
Collins will be back if we win those 4 games. Collins is probably back regardless, unless we skid out from here. But for now I'll maintain Champagne (and Champaign, as it were) dreams and hope we can rattle off 5 or 6 and get ourselves into bubble consideration heading into the BTT.
This is a great post, but I want to focus on one line "there is no obvious successor to Boo in the program." That in and of itself is a HUGE problem. We have a single recruit coming in next year and he doesn't happend to be a PG. That point can't be overlooked. We don't know what we have in Simmons or Barnhizer or Nicholson, Berry has regressed. I think Boo is a prime candidate to hit the portal e.g., Carr from Minnesota. A proven scoring PG would have plenty of options. So for me this is win now or start over.
One thing that might keep Boo at NU is his brother on the staff.
What makes you think Boo is prime candidate to hit the portal? I was thinking there were others players far more likely.
Also, as the portal takes players, we also get transfers that help. I know more was expected of Taylor, but I think we did very well with Chase, Williams and Spencer before them.
I would be almost 100% certain he is actively engaged in the game, talking with donors during the game, etc. For an AD to be checked out of one of the two major revenue sports would be simply not doing their job, which I doubt Gragg is doing.
Interesting results so far. A very strong majority generally in favor of CC. A majority have essentially seen enough to bring him back: either they don't want him fired at all, or they only want to see a couple more wins, which given NU's schedule is minimal. The majority of those not in that camp just want to see an NIT berth, which NU just needs to win the games again awful opponents to accomplish. So a stronger sense in favor of Collins on here than a lot of the post discussion makes it seem.
Yeah I wonder if that third of voters were in anyway swayed by the very recent streak*. Because there doesn't seem to be that many staunch defenders.
*agree with NUCat320 that the streak deserves an asterisk. Almost blew one, clobbered a then-winless team and played half a roster. To me, if he'd lost any of the three, we hire an Uber for him and Gragg to go to Ohare so he can be fired on the tarmac. We won 3 straight, but if we had lost any of them, He would have deserved to be fired instantly. I take the wins any way we get them, but am not giddy...yet.
Let us squander a couple of late leads and the poll will look very different. Very emotional reactions to losses around here.
I've maintained from the start of the year that it's NCAA or bust. It's year 9, and the program's own standard is that making the NIT is an insufficient amount of success for Northwestern basketball.
However, I recognize that this standard will not actually be upheld and that he will likely be back next year no matter what.
However, I recognize that this standard will not actually be upheld and that he will likely be back next year no matter what.
Same. This season is the one he’s been building up to for 4 years. The year that it all comes together. Nance is a senior. Buie, Audige are experienced juniors. Nance is gone next year and we don’t have a replacement or an incoming stud. This is supposed to be the peak of Collins cycle. And it seems the best we can likely do is NIT or NIT bubble. Carmody was fired for better results than this.
No! Collins broke through the NCAA ceiling which had never been done before here and he even won a game there. Carmody, who I thought did a good job, couldn't get that done. Carmody's final year spiraled out of control with some blowout losses and he had only one year left on his deal.
These are exactly the right words - “broke through”. In my view, Carmody was fired because Phillips saw what was easily apparent - we could not get the talent to break through our ceiling to another level of success. Collins was hired for that very reason. Change our style of play and attract players that could get us to break through to this higher level. He did it, but has not been able to sustain the success. For some like me, that is not surprising at all - how could we expect sustained success given our academic restrictions and history? For others, he’s an immediate failure for not sustaining success. I think Cragg just needs to decide if Collins still has the capability to get us back to that higher level, hopefully (of course) for a longer period. I believe Collins still has that in him and his program.
I came into this year with the same exact mindset. Now I’m not sure. It’s kinda scary thinking about how bad we would most likely be the seasons directly following Collins being fired. Like if he was fired after this season I guarantee we see a number of guys transfer. At this point I would be fine either way but if its possible this core gets one more shot then I’d like to see Collins stay around for one more year.
Many of the same posters that attribute Collins recent failures to bad luck all of a sudden aren’t so full of grace for Carmody. I think Carmody would have broken through if not for some untimely injuries and Coble quitting the team. But ultimately he didn’t get it done and that’s why he was fired.
Collins, to his credit, has had one fantastic breakthrough year. And he has been handsomely rewarded for it with a 10 year contract for which he will be paid whether he is working here or not. His recent results just aren’t good enough. The floor of the program has not been raised. There has been no progression, either for the program or for Collins personal abilities. We are currently beneath the low standard that Carmody set at the end of his tenure, which is attending the NIT more often than not. We are anticipated to be a worse team next year as Collins has struck out on recruiting yet again. If Carmody wasn’t good enough, why is Collins? One great year doesn’t buy you a lifetime contract in college athletics.
Collins has had recruiting advantages that Carmody did not have.
Any fair-minded person has to at least admit that.
Any fair-minded person has to at least admit that.
Very few programs progress uniformly; Carmody did not either, and he was an established great coach while Collins was / is still a relatively new head coach. (I still hold Carmody in high grace). This is the BigTen after all. And just look at the floor of the football program - pretty low, eh? Collins achieved and has the higher ceiling despite his relative inexperience; that’s saying something. (And the MSU game was a great sign that we should be just fine next year).
I think the issue facing the Collins era is ultimately the floor problem. So far, CCC has made any kind of postseason appearance just once in 9 seasons. It was a fantastic once, but that's an overall downward trend in terms of lifting the floor of the program. That's why this season was seen as such a key and why doing well in the last part of the conference season is crucial. The Iowa game is incredibly important as it may be the key to the NIT. Getting there shows that there's possibility again in Evanston.
I've been holding the POV that Collins really missed recruiting '16-'18 (not counting transfers). Outside of Dererk Pardon, none of those guys became viable B1G players by the time of their senior year. Would've understood if you let him go after that.
However, '19 comes and he reboots with Nance/Kopp/Greer. While Kopp ends up transferring out, they've been able to get old and stay old. 7 games left, it's reasonable to see them get to 9 wins in B1G, and perhaps grab a game in the BTT. When I look at '20 and '21 classes, I see more hits than misses.
If one has a "traditional" lens, then you could argue that next year's recruiting class is somewhat bare. While next year the 'Cats only have Luke Hunger coming in (and from what it appears, he seems to be a good under-hyped find), they still have a couple open spots after the decommit of Rowan Brumbaugh to Texas. However, its a different game now: while Power Conference programs have always gotten to get their pick of the mid-major talent who wants to jump up (Chase Audige was a pre-COVID example), but without having to sit a year, now more players are at risk of leaving. So now it's not just who you bring in from high school, but its can you create a culture where people want to stay?
If everyone wants to come back, that speaks really highly of the culture that Collins has fostered. Even without Nance, you'd have seniors Buie, Audige, Beran and Young. If they were really about winning - those 4 alone would already put them in a strong position for next year. NU could be heading into the off-season like an NBA team on the come-up who just needs "one more piece" to get to the next level, and that could be filled with one of those 2 open spots with an upperclassman transfer.
If you lose more than Nance, then perhaps you give it a hard look at rebooting. Personally, I think Buie is the most important piece for next year.
Ultimately, the players will probably have more of an influence on whether or not Collins is retained.
However, '19 comes and he reboots with Nance/Kopp/Greer. While Kopp ends up transferring out, they've been able to get old and stay old. 7 games left, it's reasonable to see them get to 9 wins in B1G, and perhaps grab a game in the BTT. When I look at '20 and '21 classes, I see more hits than misses.
If one has a "traditional" lens, then you could argue that next year's recruiting class is somewhat bare. While next year the 'Cats only have Luke Hunger coming in (and from what it appears, he seems to be a good under-hyped find), they still have a couple open spots after the decommit of Rowan Brumbaugh to Texas. However, its a different game now: while Power Conference programs have always gotten to get their pick of the mid-major talent who wants to jump up (Chase Audige was a pre-COVID example), but without having to sit a year, now more players are at risk of leaving. So now it's not just who you bring in from high school, but its can you create a culture where people want to stay?
If everyone wants to come back, that speaks really highly of the culture that Collins has fostered. Even without Nance, you'd have seniors Buie, Audige, Beran and Young. If they were really about winning - those 4 alone would already put them in a strong position for next year. NU could be heading into the off-season like an NBA team on the come-up who just needs "one more piece" to get to the next level, and that could be filled with one of those 2 open spots with an upperclassman transfer.
If you lose more than Nance, then perhaps you give it a hard look at rebooting. Personally, I think Buie is the most important piece for next year.
Ultimately, the players will probably have more of an influence on whether or not Collins is retained.
Probably true. Maybe he needs a white shirt and purple tie. I swear, I try and find him and can’t do it after that first presentation.
Probably true. Maybe he needs a white shirt and purple tie. I swear, I try and find him and can’t do it after that first presentation.
Fair point, but technically, Fitz has not raised the floor. He’s definitely raised the overall average performance more than CCC, of course. To that point, it would be good to see more years of CCC W/L success. But I have also pointed out that SRS is much better under Collins; it’s not easy in the league out there recently.
Only one open spot if the seniors have already let it be known they intend to come back. It certainly doesn’t seem like the staff is recruiting like there are a bunch of spots to fill.
Well, the team we almost blew one to just beat OSU and crushed MSU. Give me a break.
What exactly has Collins gotten better at since he first arrived? Is his recruiting improved? No, his best classes were his first two. His in game tactics, adjustments, substitutions? No, many of his lineups are inexplicable and his teams are now notorious for turtling and blowing leads. His ability to develop his players? No, very few of his players vastly exceed their expectations coming in, with many being excruciatingly underwhelming.
Unless you are a blue blood program, your performance will be cyclical as your best players get mature. So therefore it’s important to understand where we are in the current cycle when evaluating. If Nance/Buie were sophomores currently, this year’s performance would be completely acceptable to me. Because you have your two best players with upside and two more years to put the pieces around them to make a run at the dance. However that’s not the current case - Nance is gone next year and although our freshmen look promising they will not replace Nance’s production. Therefore this year is the cycle peak. Next year we are on a downswing and then we are back to rebuilding in 2023 when Buie leaves. The peak of your program’s cycle flat out needs to be better than barely sneaking into the NIT as the best case.
Please, do not discuss recruiting without discussing Admissions. Your other points are sound. However, it all kind of goes back to recruiting. You don't become a blue blood program with Northwestern's admission's standards. No one does.
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