Current scenarios for the double-bye
- Thread starter CappyNU
- Start date
The predictable outcome would be PSU/Purdue/IU/IA winning.
But it would also be Rutgers winning.
But it would also be Rutgers winning.
If we don't play poorly or do something crazy, like playing Verhoeven and Martinelli 25 minutes each, we should win this game.
Alright! Here's where we stand after game 1:
Purdue - locked in at #1
Iowa - 10 scenarios (90.1% - 66.6% 2nd, 14.4% 3rd, 9.9% 4th)
Indiana - 8 scenarios (66.0% - 8.3% 2nd, 39.5% 3rd, 18.2% 4th) - Eliminated with loss to Michigan
Michigan State - 8 scenarios (59.9% - 9.9% 3rd, 50.0% 4th)
Michigan - 8 scenarios (34.0% - 5.1% 2nd, 23.1% 3rd, 5.8% 4th) - Eliminated with loss to IU
NU - 7 scenarios (32.0% - 18.6% 2nd, 5.6% 3rd, 7.9% 4th) - Eliminated with loss to Rutgers
Illinois - 7 scenarios (17.2% - 1.4% 2nd, 7.5% 3rd, 8.3% 4th) - Eliminated with loss to Purdue
Maryland - 16 scenarios (49.0% - 8.5% 2nd, 36.9% 3rd, 3.6% 4th) ELIMINATED
Assuming we beat Rutgers to get the double bye, our rooting interests are as follows:
To get the 2nd seed - one of the following combinations:
Purdue over IL, IU over Michigan; (17.7%)
IL over Purdue, Nebraska over Iowa, IU over Michigan. (0.9%)
To get the 3rd seed - one of the following combinations:
Illinois over Purdue, Iowa over Nebraska, Indiana over Michigan; (3.8%)
Purdue over Illinois, Nebraska over Iowa, Michigan over Indiana (1.7%)
To get the 4th seed - one of the following combinations:
Purdue over Illinois, Iowa over Nebraska, Michigan over Indiana; (7.4%)
Illinois over Purdue, Nebraska over Iowa, Michigan over Indiana; (0.5%)
We will be eliminated from the double bye before our game even tips if one of the following occurs (1 scenario, 2.0%):
Illinois beats Purdue, Iowa beats Nebraska, Michigan beats IU (2.0%)
Purdue - locked in at #1
Iowa - 10 scenarios (90.1% - 66.6% 2nd, 14.4% 3rd, 9.9% 4th)
Indiana - 8 scenarios (66.0% - 8.3% 2nd, 39.5% 3rd, 18.2% 4th) - Eliminated with loss to Michigan
Michigan State - 8 scenarios (59.9% - 9.9% 3rd, 50.0% 4th)
Michigan - 8 scenarios (34.0% - 5.1% 2nd, 23.1% 3rd, 5.8% 4th) - Eliminated with loss to IU
NU - 7 scenarios (32.0% - 18.6% 2nd, 5.6% 3rd, 7.9% 4th) - Eliminated with loss to Rutgers
Illinois - 7 scenarios (17.2% - 1.4% 2nd, 7.5% 3rd, 8.3% 4th) - Eliminated with loss to Purdue
Assuming we beat Rutgers to get the double bye, our rooting interests are as follows:
To get the 2nd seed - one of the following combinations:
Purdue over IL, IU over Michigan; (17.7%)
IL over Purdue, Nebraska over Iowa, IU over Michigan. (0.9%)
To get the 3rd seed - one of the following combinations:
Illinois over Purdue, Iowa over Nebraska, Indiana over Michigan; (3.8%)
Purdue over Illinois, Nebraska over Iowa, Michigan over Indiana (1.7%)
To get the 4th seed - one of the following combinations:
Purdue over Illinois, Iowa over Nebraska, Michigan over Indiana; (7.4%)
Illinois over Purdue, Nebraska over Iowa, Michigan over Indiana; (0.5%)
We will be eliminated from the double bye before our game even tips if one of the following occurs (1 scenario, 2.0%):
Illinois beats Purdue, Iowa beats Nebraska, Michigan beats IU (2.0%)
Additional breakdown:
After Game 1, we can end up anywhere from the 2-9 seed, except for 6.
If PSU/Purdue, we can get the 2, 3, 4, 7 or 9 seeds. If PSU/Illinois, it's 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 9.
If PSU/Purdue/Iowa, 2, 4, 7, 9. If PSU/Purdue/Nebraska, 2, 3, 7, 9.
If PSU/Illinois/Iowa, 3, 5, 8, 9. If PSU/Illinois/Nebraska, 2, 4, 8, 9.
If PSU/Purdue/Iowa/IU, 2, 9. If PSU/Illinois/Iowa/IU, 3, 9.
If PSU/Illinois or Purdue/Nebraska/IU, 2, 9.
If PSU/Purdue/Iowa/Michigan, 4, 7. If PSU/Purdue/Nebraska/Michigan, 3, 7.
If PSU/Illinois/Iowa/Michigan, 5, 8. If PSU/Illinois/Nebraska/Michigan, 4, 8.
If we lose to Rutgers, we have a 17.8% chance of the 7th seed, 4.7% chance of the 8th seed, and 43.6% chance of the 9th seed.
After Game 1, we can end up anywhere from the 2-9 seed, except for 6.
If PSU/Purdue, we can get the 2, 3, 4, 7 or 9 seeds. If PSU/Illinois, it's 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 9.
If PSU/Purdue/Iowa, 2, 4, 7, 9. If PSU/Purdue/Nebraska, 2, 3, 7, 9.
If PSU/Illinois/Iowa, 3, 5, 8, 9. If PSU/Illinois/Nebraska, 2, 4, 8, 9.
If PSU/Purdue/Iowa/IU, 2, 9. If PSU/Illinois/Iowa/IU, 3, 9.
If PSU/Illinois or Purdue/Nebraska/IU, 2, 9.
If PSU/Purdue/Iowa/Michigan, 4, 7. If PSU/Purdue/Nebraska/Michigan, 3, 7.
If PSU/Illinois/Iowa/Michigan, 5, 8. If PSU/Illinois/Nebraska/Michigan, 4, 8.
If we lose to Rutgers, we have a 17.8% chance of the 7th seed, 4.7% chance of the 8th seed, and 43.6% chance of the 9th seed.
Slightly different question, because "best?" and "who would you rather have?" aren't quite the same, but I'd take TJD.
I just realized you weren't specific in saying "Edey's not the best" - the best big or the best player?
Pickett and Jahmir Young are both excellent, but Edey brings a dimension that no one else does. Quite literally.
If TJD were "all that", they'd have a better record.
I don't disagree with any of this, and I wouldn't fault anyone for picking Edey for National and Conference POTY (though I love Jalen Wilson at Kansas too), but I just like TJD's versatility and poise. Feel like you can get in Edey's head.
That last shot he made though was nice.
Edey is not going to be a successful NBA player. He already has trouble with the double and triple teams at this level. Plus his range is so limited that he passes up open looks from 10-15 feet. NBA bigs take and make those shots.
I think we’ve clinched top 4 regardless of IU vs Michigan, but we get #2 if Indiana wins. All, of course, contingent on beating Rutgers.
I think he's saying Michigan wins, and NU STILL gets a double-bye with a win. They just won't get the #2 seed.
Indiana defeats Michigan: NU is #2 with a win, #9 with a loss. (Iowa-Nebraska irrelevant).
Michigan defeats Indiana:
-If Iowa defeats Nebraska: NU is #4 with a win, #7 with a loss.
-If Nebraska defeats Iowa: NU Is #3 with a win, #7 with a loss.
Michigan defeats Indiana:
-If Iowa defeats Nebraska: NU is #4 with a win, #7 with a loss.
-If Nebraska defeats Iowa: NU Is #3 with a win, #7 with a loss.
The best scenario is still Nebraska and Indiana winning (and NU of course), giving NU and Indiana a tie for second place with NU winning the tiebreaker. If Michigan and Iowa win, NU would still get a double-bye with the win and would be in a three-way tie for second place.
Here's where we stand after game 2:
Purdue - locked in at #1
Iowa - 6 scenarios (93.5% - 62.8% 2nd, 18.2% 3rd, 12.5% 4th)
Indiana - 4 scenarios (66.0% - 8.3% 2nd, 39.5% 3rd, 18.2% 4th) - Eliminated with loss to Michigan
Michigan State - 6 scenarios (72.5% - 12.5% 3rd, 59.9% 4th)
Michigan - 4 scenarios (34.0% - 5.1% 2nd, 23.1% 3rd, 5.8% 4th) - Eliminated with loss to IU
NU - 4 scenarios (34.0% - 22.4% 2nd, 2.2% 3rd, 9.4% 4th) - Eliminated with loss to Rutgers
Assuming we beat Rutgers to get the double bye, our rooting interests are as follows:
To get the 2nd seed:
IU over Michigan; (22.4%)
To get the 3rd seed:
Nebraska over Iowa, Michigan over Indiana (2.2%)
To get the 4th seed:
Purdue over Illinois, Iowa over Nebraska, Michigan over Indiana; (9.4%)
We will NOT be eliminated from the double bye before our game even tips!
We can end up as 2, 3, 4, 7, 9.
If PSU/Purdue/IU, 2, 9.
If PSU/Purdue/Iowa/Michigan, 4, 7. If PSU/Purdue/Nebraska/Michigan, 3, 7.
If we lose to Rutgers, we have a 22.4% chance of the 7th seed, and 43.6% chance of the 9th seed.
Looks like NU will playing for either the #2 or #9 seed. What a world.
In addition, I have the great misfortune to be traveling to Sweden tonight for work in the middle of our game.....so updates may be quite sporadic depending on the quality of Lufthansa's wifi.
I think we both would. Thinking we would be the # 3 seed. Northwestern Basketball, party of 13, your table is set!
How is it remotely possible to be 7th or 9th seed?? If NU wins, they will be tied at 12-8 with Indiana or Michigan, for second place, with Michigan taking precedence in that scenario with 2 wins over NU.
Visual representation of this thread
The seventh or ninth is if NU loses. They'd be 11-9 and tied for fourth place with five other teams.
If they win, they'll be tied for second place with just one other team.
