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Current scenarios for the double-bye

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CappyNU

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Right now, there are 256 possible scenarios impacting the double bye. Here's where things stand going into tonight:

Purdue - locked in at #1 thanks to MD and NU losses yesterday
Iowa - 155 scenarios (83.5% - 66.5% 2nd, 13.0% 3rd, 4.0% 4th)
Indiana - 94 scenarios (46.0% - 6.5% 2nd, 18.1% 3rd, 21.4% 4th)
Michigan - 169 scenarios (45.2% - 15.3% 2nd, 14.9% 3rd, 15.0% 4th)
Maryland - 127 scenarios (44.1% - 3.3% 2nd, 18.4% 3rd, 22.4% 4th)
Rutgers - 48 scenarios (38.8% - 1.7% 2nd, 22.9% 3rd, 14.1% 4th)
NU - 104 scenarios (27.8% - 5.9% 2nd, 9.1% 3rd, 12.8% 4th)
Illinois - 42 scenarios (7.4% - 0.7% 2nd, 3.0% 3rd, 3.7% 4th) - Illinois could also fall all the way to 11th.
Michigan State - 28 scenarios (7.2% - 0.5% 3rd, 6.7% 4th)

It goes without saying that we need to beat Rutgers to get the double bye. Our rooting interests are as follows:

To get the 2nd seed - Illinois over Michigan tonight, IU over Michigan, PSU over MD, Purdue over IL Sunday. If Illinois beats Purdue, Nebraska must beat Iowa.

To get the 3rd seed - Either Michigan over Illinois tonight and PSU over MD Sunday, or Illinois over Michigan tonight plus either one of the following combinations: Indiana over Michigan, Iowa over Nebraska, PSU over MD, and Illinois over Purdue; Indiana over Michigan, Nebraska over Iowa, and Maryland over PSU; Michigan over Indiana, Nebraska over Iowa, PSU over MD, and Purdue over Illinois.

To get the 4th seed - Either Michigan over Illinois tonight, Maryland over PSU Sunday along with one of the following combinations: Indiana over Michigan; Michigan over Indiana and Nebraska over Iowa. The other alternative is Illinois over Michigan tonight, along with one of the following combinations: Indiana over Michigan, Iowa over Nebraska, Maryland over PSU; Michigan over Indiana, Iowa over Nebraska, PSU over Maryland, Purdue over Illinois; Michigan over Indiana, Nebraska over Iowa, PSU over Maryland, Illinois over Purdue; Michigan over Indiana, Nebraska over Iowa, Maryland over PSU, Illinois over Purdue;

We will be eliminated from the double bye before our game even tips if one of the following occurs (5.2%):
Illinois beats Michigan tonight, Michigan beats IU, Iowa beats Nebraska, Maryland beats PSU on Sunday
Illinois beats Michigan tonight, Michigan beats IU, Iowa beats Nebraska, PSU beats Maryland, Illinois beats Purdue on Sunday
Illinois beats Michigan tonight, Michigan beats IU, Nebraska beats Iowa, Maryland beats PSU, Illinois beats Purdue on Sunday
Michigan beats Illinois tonight and Indiana Sunday, Iowa beats Nebraska, Maryland beats PSU

The Rutgers-Minnesota, Purdue-Wisconsin, MSU-Ohio State and Wisconsin-Minnesota games have no impact on our chances, so all eyes on the Illini against Michigan tonight.
 
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Geez, Terrence Shannon is doing to Michigan in OT what he did to NU in the last eight minutes. This is ri-donkulous.

He missed the free throw, tho, and Illinois couldn’t go coast to coast in 3 seconds after Michigan missed the three, so we’re headed to double OT on ESPN.

Michigan had an 81-74 lead and then Shannon scored or set up the final seven points.
 
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As we head to second OT in Champaign, I’m still torn on who I’m rooting for. Michigan win makes it more likely we get a top four seed. An Illinois win makes it more likely we get the 2 seed.
 
AT THIS VERY MOMENT IN DOUBLE-OT IN CHAMPAIGN:

Purdue - locked in at #1 thanks to MD and NU losses yesterday
Iowa - 84 scenarios (87.5% - 66.5% 2nd, 14.0% 3rd, 7.0% 4th)
Indiana - 48 scenarios (53.4% - 6.5% 2nd, 22.2% 3rd, 24.6% 4th)
Michigan - 88 scenarios (50.4% - 14.4% 2nd, 13.3% 3rd, 22.7% 4th)
Maryland - 68 scenarios (51.0% - 6.2% 2nd, 35.7% 3rd, 9.1% 4th)
NU - 52 scenarios (27.8% - 5.9% 2nd, 9.1% 3rd, 12.8% 4th)
Michigan State - 20 scenarios (21.2% - 2.9% 3rd, 18.3% 4th)
Illinois - 22 scenarios (7.8% - 0.4% 2nd, 2.7% 3rd, 4.6% 4th) - Illinois could also fall all the way to 11th.
Rutgers - 2 scenarios (1.0% - 1.0% 4th)
 
Gotta root for Illinois, but then I look at Coleman Hawkins and...ecch, it's hard. There is not a single play in the game that happens where Hawkins doesn't give the "but that's not fairrrrrrrrrr!" face.
 
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Darren72 said:
As we head to second OT in Champaign, I’m still torn on who I’m rooting for. Michigan win makes it more likely we get a top four seed. An Illinois win makes it more likely we get the 2 seed.
Click to expand...
Looks like IL will win this.
 
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AND JUST TWO MINUTES LATER:

Purdue - locked in at #1 thanks to MD and NU losses yesterday
Iowa - 42 scenarios (88.6% - 73.7% 2nd, 8.8% 3rd, 6.1% 4th)
Indiana - 28 scenarios (57.1% - 4.2% 2nd, 24.2% 3rd, 28.6% 4th)
Maryland - 34 scenarios (51.6% - 8.5% 2nd, 36.9% 3rd, 6.2% 4th)
Michigan - 32 scenarios (37.2% - 3.5% 2nd, 17.3% 3rd, 16.5% 4th)
NU - 24 scenarios (28.2% - 9.5% 2nd, 4.9% 3rd, 13.8% 4th)
Michigan State - 10 scenarios (25.1% - 3.6% 3rd, 21.5% 4th)
Illinois - 22 scenarios (12.1% - 0.7% 2nd, 4.3% 3rd, 7.2% 4th)
Rutgers - 2 scenarios (1.0% - 1.0% 4th) - ELIMINATED

Somehow we have the 2nd-best chance to get 2nd place behind Iowa, which to me is very funny.
 
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CappyNU said:
We will be eliminated from the double bye before our game even tips if one of the following occurs (5.2%):
  • Michigan beats IU, Iowa beats Nebraska, Maryland beats PSU on Sunday
  • Michigan beats IU, Iowa beats Nebraska, PSU beats Maryland, Illinois beats Purdue on Sunday
  • Michigan beats IU, Nebraska beats Iowa, Maryland beats PSU, Illinois beats Purdue on Sunday
  • Michigan beats Illinois tonight and Indiana Sunday, Iowa beats Nebraska, Maryland beats PSU
Click to expand...

Fantastic stuff throughout this thread. Thank you Cappy.

What I'm most concerned about is can NU win Sunday and still not get the double-bye. At least one of your scenarios above can be crossed out (so I crossed it out). So if I'm reading it right, an Indiana win over Michigan all by itself ensures that the NU-Rutgers game will be for an NU double-bye, but if Michigan wins that game, at least there are other scenarios still advantageous for the Cats. My head hurts. I'm glad we (the fans) get a day of rest tomorrow.
 
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If you assume Purdue beats Illinois, and Iowa beats Nebraska, the scenarios are much simpler.

But, this being the Big Ten, you should never assume anything.

CappyNU- thanks!
 
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It goes without saying that we need to beat Rutgers to get the double bye. Our rooting interests are as follows:

To get the 2nd seed - one of the following combinations:
PSU over MD, Purdue over IL, IU over Michigan; (9.0%)
PSU over MD, IL over Purdue, Nebraska over Iowa, IU over Michigan. (0.5%)

To get the 3rd seed - one of the following combinations:
Maryland over PSU, Nebraska over Iowa, and Indiana over Michigan; (2.1%)
PSU over MD, Illinois over Purdue, Iowa over Nebraska, Indiana over Michigan; (1.9%)
PSU over MD, Purdue over Illinois, Nebraska over Iowa, Michigan over Indiana (0.9%)

To get the 4th seed - one of the following combinations:
Maryland over PSU, Iowa over Nebraska, Indiana over Michigan; (8.9%)
Maryland over PSU, Purdue over Illinois, Nebraska over Iowa, Michigan over Indiana; (0.8%)
PSU over Maryland, Purdue over Illinois, Iowa over Nebraska, Michigan over Indiana; (3.8%)
PSU over Maryland, Illinois over Purdue, Nebraska over Iowa, Michigan over Indiana; (0.2%)

We will be eliminated from the double bye before our game even tips if one of the following occurs (5.8%):
Maryland beats PSU, Iowa beats Nebraska, Michigan beats IU (4.6%)
Maryland beats PSU, Illinois beats Purdue, Nebraska beats Iowa, Michigan beats IU (0.2%)
PSU beats Maryland, Illinois beats Purdue, Iowa beats Nebraska, Michigan beats IU (1.0%)

Edited to reflect the order of games on Sunday. Of course, the first priority of Miller Kopp making some goddamn shots and IU beating Michigan is the final game before ours. If that happens, we are guaranteed a double bye if we beat Rutgers.
 
Last edited:
It seems pretty simple at this point: in addition to rooting for NU, we're rooting for IU BIG TIME along with Nebraska and Penn State. Simple enough.
 
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AdamOnFirst said:
It seems pretty simple at this point: in addition to rooting for NU, we're rooting for IU BIG TIME along with Nebraska and Penn State. Simple enough.
Click to expand...
Nebraska is very unlikely to win at Iowa, but as long as PSU and Purdue win, that's fine.
 
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Ironic if we get the two seed because the teams that just beat us — IL, IU, and Penn State - all win.
 
Yes, sorry. Mixed up the MD and IU games. …never mind.
 
CappyNU said:
Nebraska is very unlikely to win at Iowa, but as long as PSU and Purdue win, that's fine.
Click to expand...
Yeah we don't need like ALL of them to happen, just any one of them, frankly. Mostly we just need to be big IU fans.
 
Update heading into Sunday:

Purdue - locked in at #1
Iowa - 18 scenarios (86.1% - 73.7% 2nd, 7.3% 3rd, 5.1% 4th)
Indiana - 14 scenarios (57.1% - 4.2% 2nd, 24.2% 3rd, 28.6% 4th) - Eliminated with loss to Michigan
Maryland - 16 scenarios (49.0% - 8.5% 2nd, 36.9% 3rd, 3.6% 4th) - Eliminated with loss to PSU
Michigan - 15 scenarios (32.1% - 3.5% 2nd, 17.3% 3rd, 11.4% 4th) - Eliminated with loss to IU
Michigan State - 10 scenarios (35.4% - 5.1% 3rd, 30.3% 4th)
NU - 12 scenarios (28.2% - 9.5% 2nd, 4.9% 3rd, 13.8% 4th) - Eliminated with loss to Rutgers
Illinois - 11 scenarios (12.1% - 0.7% 2nd, 4.3% 3rd, 7.2% 4th) - Eliminated with loss to Purdue

Assuming we beat Rutgers to get the double bye, our rooting interests are as follows:

To get the 2nd seed - one of the following combinations:
PSU over MD, Purdue over IL, IU over Michigan; (9.0%)
PSU over MD, IL over Purdue, Nebraska over Iowa, IU over Michigan. (0.5%)

To get the 3rd seed - one of the following combinations:
Maryland over PSU, Nebraska over Iowa, and Indiana over Michigan; (2.1%)
PSU over MD, Illinois over Purdue, Iowa over Nebraska, Indiana over Michigan; (1.9%)
PSU over MD, Purdue over Illinois, Nebraska over Iowa, Michigan over Indiana (0.9%)

To get the 4th seed - one of the following combinations:
Maryland over PSU, Iowa over Nebraska, Indiana over Michigan; (8.9%)
Maryland over PSU, Purdue over Illinois, Nebraska over Iowa, Michigan over Indiana; (0.8%)
PSU over Maryland, Purdue over Illinois, Iowa over Nebraska, Michigan over Indiana; (3.8%)
PSU over Maryland, Illinois over Purdue, Nebraska over Iowa, Michigan over Indiana; (0.2%)

We will be eliminated from the double bye before our game even tips if one of the following occurs (4 scenarios, 5.8%):
Maryland beats PSU, Iowa beats Nebraska, Michigan beats IU (4.6%)
Maryland beats PSU, Illinois beats Purdue, Nebraska beats Iowa, Michigan beats IU (0.2%)
PSU beats Maryland, Illinois beats Purdue, Iowa beats Nebraska, Michigan beats IU (1.0%)
 
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CappyNU said:
Right now, there are 256 possible scenarios impacting the double bye. Here's where things stand going into tonight:

Purdue - locked in at #1 thanks to MD and NU losses yesterday
Iowa - 155 scenarios (83.5% - 66.5% 2nd, 13.0% 3rd, 4.0% 4th)
Indiana - 94 scenarios (46.0% - 6.5% 2nd, 18.1% 3rd, 21.4% 4th)
Michigan - 169 scenarios (45.2% - 15.3% 2nd, 14.9% 3rd, 15.0% 4th)
Maryland - 127 scenarios (44.1% - 3.3% 2nd, 18.4% 3rd, 22.4% 4th)
Rutgers - 48 scenarios (38.8% - 1.7% 2nd, 22.9% 3rd, 14.1% 4th)
NU - 104 scenarios (27.8% - 5.9% 2nd, 9.1% 3rd, 12.8% 4th)
Illinois - 42 scenarios (7.4% - 0.7% 2nd, 3.0% 3rd, 3.7% 4th) - Illinois could also fall all the way to 11th.
Michigan State - 28 scenarios (7.2% - 0.5% 3rd, 6.7% 4th)

It goes without saying that we need to beat Rutgers to get the double bye. Our rooting interests are as follows:

To get the 2nd seed - Illinois over Michigan tonight, IU over Michigan, PSU over MD, Purdue over IL Sunday. If Illinois beats Purdue, Nebraska must beat Iowa.

To get the 3rd seed - Either Michigan over Illinois tonight and PSU over MD Sunday, or Illinois over Michigan tonight plus either one of the following combinations: Indiana over Michigan, Iowa over Nebraska, PSU over MD, and Illinois over Purdue; Indiana over Michigan, Nebraska over Iowa, and Maryland over PSU; Michigan over Indiana, Nebraska over Iowa, PSU over MD, and Purdue over Illinois.

To get the 4th seed - Either Michigan over Illinois tonight, Maryland over PSU Sunday along with one of the following combinations: Indiana over Michigan; Michigan over Indiana and Nebraska over Iowa. The other alternative is Illinois over Michigan tonight, along with one of the following combinations: Indiana over Michigan, Iowa over Nebraska, Maryland over PSU; Michigan over Indiana, Iowa over Nebraska, PSU over Maryland, Purdue over Illinois; Michigan over Indiana, Nebraska over Iowa, PSU over Maryland, Illinois over Purdue; Michigan over Indiana, Nebraska over Iowa, Maryland over PSU, Illinois over Purdue;

We will be eliminated from the double bye before our game even tips if one of the following occurs (5.2%):
Illinois beats Michigan tonight, Michigan beats IU, Iowa beats Nebraska, Maryland beats PSU on Sunday
Illinois beats Michigan tonight, Michigan beats IU, Iowa beats Nebraska, PSU beats Maryland, Illinois beats Purdue on Sunday
Illinois beats Michigan tonight, Michigan beats IU, Nebraska beats Iowa, Maryland beats PSU, Illinois beats Purdue on Sunday
Michigan beats Illinois tonight and Indiana Sunday, Iowa beats Nebraska, Maryland beats PSU

The Rutgers-Minnesota, Purdue-Wisconsin, MSU-Ohio State and Wisconsin-Minnesota games have no impact on our chances, so all eyes on the Illini against Michigan tonight.
Click to expand...
My brain 🧠 hurts! Ouch!
 
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CappyNU said:
Update heading into Sunday:

Purdue - locked in at #1
Iowa - 18 scenarios (86.1% - 73.7% 2nd, 7.3% 3rd, 5.1% 4th)
Indiana - 14 scenarios (57.1% - 4.2% 2nd, 24.2% 3rd, 28.6% 4th) - Eliminated with loss to Michigan
Maryland - 16 scenarios (49.0% - 8.5% 2nd, 36.9% 3rd, 3.6% 4th) - Eliminated with loss to PSU
Michigan - 15 scenarios (32.1% - 3.5% 2nd, 17.3% 3rd, 11.4% 4th) - Eliminated with loss to IU
Michigan State - 10 scenarios (35.4% - 5.1% 3rd, 30.3% 4th)
NU - 12 scenarios (28.2% - 9.5% 2nd, 4.9% 3rd, 13.8% 4th) - Eliminated with loss to Rutgers
Illinois - 11 scenarios (12.1% - 0.7% 2nd, 4.3% 3rd, 7.2% 4th) - Eliminated with loss to Purdue

Assuming we beat Rutgers to get the double bye, our rooting interests are as follows:

To get the 2nd seed - one of the following combinations:
PSU over MD, Purdue over IL, IU over Michigan; (9.0%)
PSU over MD, IL over Purdue, Nebraska over Iowa, IU over Michigan. (0.5%)

To get the 3rd seed - one of the following combinations:
Maryland over PSU, Nebraska over Iowa, and Indiana over Michigan; (2.1%)
PSU over MD, Illinois over Purdue, Iowa over Nebraska, Indiana over Michigan; (1.9%)
PSU over MD, Purdue over Illinois, Nebraska over Iowa, Michigan over Indiana (0.9%)

To get the 4th seed - one of the following combinations:
Maryland over PSU, Iowa over Nebraska, Indiana over Michigan; (8.9%)
Maryland over PSU, Purdue over Illinois, Nebraska over Iowa, Michigan over Indiana; (0.8%)
PSU over Maryland, Purdue over Illinois, Iowa over Nebraska, Michigan over Indiana; (3.8%)
PSU over Maryland, Illinois over Purdue, Nebraska over Iowa, Michigan over Indiana; (0.2%)

We will be eliminated from the double bye before our game even tips if one of the following occurs (4 scenarios, 5.8%):
Maryland beats PSU, Iowa beats Nebraska, Michigan beats IU (4.6%)
Maryland beats PSU, Illinois beats Purdue, Nebraska beats Iowa, Michigan beats IU (0.2%)
PSU beats Maryland, Illinois beats Purdue, Iowa beats Nebraska, Michigan beats IU (1.0%)
Click to expand...
Okay, seriously, how did you figure this shit out.
 
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Rooting interests today seem pretty clear, right?

Penn State over Maryland (toss up)
Purdue over Illinois (likely)
Nebraska over Iowa (unlikely)
Indiana over Michigan (likely)

And, if at least two happen, NU is win-and-double bye.

This is correct?
 
I’m no Cappy, but I think we need a combination of 3 of those scenarios, not just 2, for a top 4 seed. The simplest would be PSU, IU, and PU all winning at home as favorites. Then we beat Rutgers and get the #2 seed.
 
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So, here's how the day will go:

Games start at 11am central.
By 1:30, we will know if the 2-seed is still feasible (PSU win).
By 2pm, we will know if we have clinched a double bye with a win over Rutgers (PSU and Purdue win).
By 3:30, we will know if we absolutely need IU to win to avoid being eliminated by tipoff (MD/Purdue/Iowa wins, PSU/Illinois/Iowa wins, Maryland/Illinois wins), or if we will have already clinched a double bye with a win over Rutgers (Maryland/Purdue/Nebraska wins, PSU/Illinois/Nebraska wins)
By 6:30, it's Just Win, Baby.
 
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Additional breakdown:
At the start of the day, we can end up anywhere from the 2-9 seed.

If PSU wins, we will not be able to get the 6 seed. If MD wins, we cannot get the 2 seed.

If PSU/Purdue, we can get the 2, 3, 4, 7 or 9 seeds. If PSU/Illinois, it's 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 9.
If MD/Purdue, it's 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9. If MD/Illinois, it's 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9.

If PSU/Purdue/Iowa, 2, 4, 7, 9. If PSU/Purdue/Nebraska, 2, 3, 7, 9.
If PSU/Illinois/Iowa, 3, 5, 8, 9. If PSU/Illinois/Nebraska, 2, 4, 8, 9.
If MD/Illinois/Nebraska, 3, 5, 8, 9. If MD/Illinois/Iowa, 4, 6, 8, 9.
If MD/Purdue/Iowa, 4, 5, 7, 9. If MD/Purdue/Nebraska, 3, 4, 6, 9.

If PSU/Purdue/Iowa/IU, 2, 9. If PSU/Illinois/Iowa/IU, 3, 9.
If PSU/Illinois or Purdue/Nebraska/IU, 2, 9.
If MD/Illinois or Purdue/Nebraska/IU, 3, 9. If MD/Illinois or Purdue/Iowa/IU, 4, 9.

If PSU/Purdue/Iowa/Michigan, 4, 7. If PSU/Purdue/Nebraska/Michigan, 3, 7.
If PSU/Illinois/Iowa/Michigan, 5, 8. If PSU/Illinois/Nebraska/Michigan, 4, 8.
If MD/Illinois/Nebraska/Michigan, 5, 8. If MD/Illinois/Iowa/Michigan, 6, 8.
If MD/Purdue/Iowa/Michigan, 5, 7. If MD/Purdue/Nebraska/Michigan, 4, 6.
 
Just to clarify one thing while I admittedly skim.

There's no chance at the double-bye if NU loses tonight, right?
 
Sec.112 said:
Just to clarify one thing while I admittedly skim.

There's no chance at the double-bye if NU loses tonight, right?
Click to expand...
I don’t think so. Purdue has the top spot. Winner of UM-IU will get a double bye. If Iowa, Illinois, and Maryland were to lose, MSU and Rutgers would be in.

But I could be wrong.
 
nucatnap said:
Penn St having a nice run. within 1, 1;24 left. great game.
Click to expand...
Have really stepped up on defense too. Let’s see if they can get a stop now that they are up 1.

The difference between Pickett going 1-1 versus Boo is that Pickett backs his guy down and other players cut to the bucket or for open threes. Seems our guys are not moving enough when we try to isolate. Just an observation as those who follow the game threads have seen my critical comments of our late game offense.
 
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