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early season tune-ups and matchup timing

backdoorpass

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Jun 13, 2008
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I was looking at some of our early matchups and our opponents' schedules. Things ramp up quickly, but the timing and matchups might work out a little bit in our favor.

Northwestern's first big test will be in our third game of the season, which is against Butler (kenpom no. 19). We get two tuneup games before this game (no. 336 MVSU and no. 250 E. Washington). Butler, on the other hand, will only have one tuneup game before facing us (vs. no. 319 N. Colorado). The Bulldogs will be heavy favorites, but Northwestern might have a chance to come in a little more prepared and ready to steal one on the road with one extra game under its belt.

The next test will be on a neutral floor against Texas (45) in our fourth game. Texas has three tuneup games to start the season (kenpom nos. 303, 218 and 250). Northwestern will be the first real challenge the Longhorns will have to face. Perhaps it will be an advantage for the 'Cats to have already faced and adjusted to a top opponent in Butler.

The next test will be the following night on a neutral floor against the winner/loser of the Notre Dame (50)/Colorado (56) game. In either case, the Notre Dame-Colorado matchup is the first top 200 opponent either of those teams will face. It might not be that easy for either of these teams to turn around with almost no preparation and get a 'Cats team that is a little more accustomed to a higher level of play.

The next test is at home in our seventh game against Wake Forest (76) in the B1G/ACC Challenge. Again, before facing the 'Cats, Wake Forest only plays weaker opponents--the best one being Bucknell (189). Again, it should be advantageous that Northwestern will have already played three strong opponents and hopefully raised its level of play to more mid-season form.

Our eighth game is at home against DePaul (177). (Perhaps we are in trouble if this game is a big challenge for us.) Nevertheless, once again, the 'Cats will be the first top 150 opponent of the season that DePaul faces. If healthy, we should definitely be performing at a higher level than DePaul--not only due to our talent, but also because of the teams and tests we will have already faced.

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I realize that I am digging deep and over-analyzing... Still, it's kinda interesting that for each of our "good" opponents for the first five weeks of the season, Northwestern will be their first real challenge--second in the case of ND/Colorado. It's not until the Dayton (37) game at the United Center on December 17 that the 'Cats will play a good team that already has a few top 100 opponents under its belt.

These are the 6 games that will make or break the non-conference part of the schedule. I'll take any advantage we can get in these games. Win 3 or 4, and we set ourselves up for the possibility of a special season going into conference play. Manage only 1 or 2 wins out of these 6 and we are probably looking at a repeat of least season--a team that racks up wins with cupcakes and middling opponents, but just can't beat teams equal to or above them in the rankings.
 
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I was looking at some of our early matchups and our opponents' schedules. Things ramp up quickly, but the timing and matchups might work out a little bit in our favor.

Northwestern's first big test will be in our third game of the season, which is against Butler (kenpom no. 19). We get two tuneup games before this game (no. 336 MVSU and no. 250 E. Washington). Butler, on the other hand, will only have one tuneup game before facing us (vs. no. 319 N. Colorado). The Bulldogs will be heavy favorites, but Northwestern might have a chance to come in a little more prepared and ready to steal one on the road with one extra game under its belt.

The next test will be on a neutral floor against Texas (45) in our fourth game. Texas has three tuneup games to start the season (kenpom nos. 303, 218 and 250). Northwestern will be the first real challenge the Longhorns will have to face. Perhaps it will be an advantage for the 'Cats to have already faced and adjusted to a top opponent in Butler.

The next test will be the following night on a neutral floor against the winner/loser of the Notre Dame (50)/Colorado (56) game. In either case, the Notre Dame-Colorado matchup is the first top 200 opponent either of those teams will face. It might not be that easy for either of these teams to turn around with almost no preparation and get a 'Cats team that is a little more accustomed to a higher level of play.

The next test is at home in our seventh game against Wake Forest (76) in the B1G/ACC Challenge. Again, before facing the 'Cats, Wake Forest only plays weaker opponents--the best one being Bucknell (189). Again, it should be advantageous that Northwestern will have already played three strong opponents and hopefully raised its level of play to more mid-season form.

Our eighth game is at home against DePaul (177). (Perhaps we are in trouble if this game is a big challenge for us.) Nevertheless, once again, the 'Cats will be the first top 150 opponent of the season that DePaul faces. If healthy, we should definitely be performing at a higher level than DePaul--not only due to our talent, but also because of the teams and tests we will have already faced.

---

I realize that I am digging deep and over-analyzing... Still, it's kinda interesting that for each of our "good" opponents for the first five weeks of the season, Northwestern will be their first real challenge--second in the case of ND/Colorado. It's not until the Dayton (37) game at the United Center on December 17 that the 'Cats will play a good team that already has a few top 100 opponents under its belt.

These are the 6 games that will make or break the non-conference part of the schedule. I'll take any advantage we can get in these games. Win 3 or 4, and we set ourselves up for the possibility of a special season going into conference play. Manage only 1 or 2 wins out of these 6 and we are probably looking at a repeat of least season--a team that racks up wins with cupcakes and middling opponents, but just can't beat teams equal to or above them in the rankings.

Very interesting analysis, thanks. Another point in the Cats favor in the ACC Challenge is that they will have already played a difficult road game while Wake Forest won't. Wake will be relatively young this season and while WRA isn't exactly a house of horrors, playing on the road in a different time zone will be a new experience for the Deacs.
 
Interesting,,,that the previous schedule of both teams may have an effect on the outcome of a current game. Has to be someone at NU or Kenpom that could do a little study and give us some statistical analysis,,,,,but since you only control one factor ( your schedule) isnt much you can do about it, Think it would be better to consistently have an athletic post player or two
 
Very interesting analysis, thanks. Another point in the Cats favor in the ACC Challenge is that they will have already played a difficult road game while Wake Forest won't. Wake will be relatively young this season and while WRA isn't exactly a house of horrors, playing on the road in a different time zone will be a new experience for the Deacs.


Additionally, Welsh-Ryan doesn't figure to be overrun by Wake fans either. Should be a pretty decent atmosphere for that one.
 
With games against NCAA regulars Dayton (preseason favorite to win the Atlantic 10), Notre Dame (elite 8 team the past two seasons) or Colorado (NCAA team last season and projected as no. 4 team in the PAC-10, 12 or 14), Texas (always talented with a 5 star top recruit in Jarrett Allen and excellent coach in Shaka Smart), and at Butler in the Hinkle Field House , I think NU's schedule is tough enough for them to prove they are NIT or NCAA bubble worthy. Now the fun begins on Friday to see how advanced this team's development is.
 
With games against NCAA regulars Dayton (preseason favorite to win the Atlantic 10), Notre Dame (elite 8 team the past two seasons) or Colorado (NCAA team last season and projected as no. 4 team in the PAC-10, 12 or 14), Texas (always talented with a 5 star top recruit in Jarrett Allen and excellent coach in Shaka Smart), and at Butler in the Hinkle Field House , I think NU's schedule is tough enough for them to prove they are NIT or NCAA bubble worthy. Now the fun begins on Friday to see how advanced this team's development is.

Unless NU wins at least 2 of these 4 games, NU will be watching the NIT from Evanston on ESPN irregardless of the strength of the rest of the OOC schedule.....
 
Heck, the Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum here in Winston-Salem isn't exactly overrun with Wake fans, either....;)

Random question for you since you seem to live in the area. Where does Wake fall in terms of popularity for hoops? Obviously behind Duke and UNC, but above NC State and Davidson? Also, is Wake a "southern" school in terms of student body, or is it like Duke and has national makeup?
 
Random question for you since you seem to live in the area. Where does Wake fall in terms of popularity for hoops? Obviously behind Duke and UNC, but above NC State and Davidson? Also, is Wake a "southern" school in terms of student body, or is it like Duke and has national makeup?

Wake has a loyal local following. It is far enough from Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham that it is the only big time sports attraction. The pecking order is 1) UNC, 2) Duke, 3) NCSU, 4) Wake, then everyone else. This is the heart of the original ACC and they LOVE their ACC basketball. When the Deacs are winning they sell out 14,000 seat LJVM. They draw pretty well for football when winning too, filling 31,000 BB&T field. These two facilities put NU's to shame, although both football and basketball are about the same distance from the main campus as NU's. Right now the Deacs draw only a little better than NU does reflecting the lousy teams they've had the last few years. Duke and NC sell out but the OOC games seldom draw more than 4,000. I get $6 stubhub tickets and sit in the upper bowl and enjoy a few local Foothills Brewery Hoppyum ales, now that they sell beer at both football and basketball!

Wake is very much a southern school. Most of the athletes are from NC, SC, VA, TN and FL. It isn't terrible diverse, reflecting its Baptist roots although it severed all ties with the church many years ago. There is a really strong alum network in this area, in banking, tobacco (the Reynolds family donated the land the University moved to in the 50's) and health care. Enrollment is just over 4,800 undergrads, with only a few grad students mainly in their business school. They have a law school on campus, and an excellent medical school within the huge Baptist Hospital downtown.
 
Unless NU wins at least 2 of these 4 games, NU will be watching the NIT from Evanston on ESPN irregardless of the strength of the rest of the OOC schedule.....

I know irregardless is now a word but it still annoys the flick out of me.

On a happier note, I will be leading a dive at the Blue Hole tomorrow. Another bucket item checked off.
 
Unless NU wins at least 2 of these 4 games, NU will be watching the NIT from Evanston on ESPN irregardless of the strength of the rest of the OOC schedule.....
Regardless is a word; "irregardless" is not!
 
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