Gonzaga: how good are they REALLY?

[FeliSilvestris]

On the surface it seems one shouldn't even pose the question. They are 33-1 after winning both their conference tournament and their first round NCAAT game. They must be one of the all time great college basketball teams, right?

Well, it's not so simple. They play in the WCC whose only other ranked and NCAAT team is Saint Mary. SM is currently #22, but they may be overrated: their only noticeable reg. season win was against Dayton, a solid but unranked team which also plays in a smaller conference. What this means is that most of the schedule of Gz is against their unranked and not particularly distinguished conference rivals. One of them, BYU, did beat Gz, but they have already lost their first NIT match. Most of Gz conference games were lopsided affairs, that surely allowed the Gz coaches to keep their starters rested, reducing opportunities for costly injuries.

The most "challenging" part of Gz schedule was the OOC part. There one can only find FIVE major conference teams, of which Washington had a very forgettable season, Tenn had a mediocre-at-best non-postseason one, leaving IASt, Florida and especially Arizona as the premier opponents. At the time of the game current #20 Florida wasn't even ranked (indicating that their play wasn't overly impressive at the time). ISU was #21 (now a bit lower at #23) and current #4 Arizona was then ranked #16. That's it as far a major conference teams having strong seasons.

Gz beat all three of them, but by modest margins from 2 to 7 pts. They also beat mediocre Tenn by 10.

Florida is noteworthy because NU's most recent opponent, Vandy, beat Florida three times. Gz margin of victory over FL was 5 pts. NU played Vandy about even, so these results suggest that NU, Vandy, FL and Gz are not very far from each other.

All things considered, NU would seem to have a pretty good chance of beating the Bulldogs (at a minimum should play them competitively).

 

[NJCat]

On the surface it seems one shouldn't evee pose the question. They are 33-1 after winning both their conference tournament and their first round NCAAT game. They must be one of the all time great college basketball teams, right?

Well, it's not so simple. They play in the WCC whose only other ranked and NCAAT team is Saint Mary. SM is currently #22, but they may be overrated: their only noticeable reg. season win was against Dayton, a solid but unranked team which also play in a smaller conference. What this means is that most of the schedule of Gz is against their unranked and not particularly distinguished conference rival. One of them, BYU, did beat Gz, but they have already lost their first NIT match. Most of Gz conference games were lopsided affairs, that surely allowed the Gz coaches to keep their starters rested, reducing opportunities for costly injuries.

The most challenging part of Gz schedule was the OOC part. There one can only find FIVE major conference teams, of which Washington had a very forgettable season, Tenn had a mediocre-at-best non-postseason one, leaving IASt, Florida and especially Arizona as the premier opponents. At the time of the game current #20 Florida wasn't even ranked (indicating that their play wasn't overly impressive at the time). ISU was #21 (now a bit lower at #23) and current #4 Arizona was then ranked #16. That's it as far a major conference teams having strong seasons.

Gz beat all three of them, but by modest margins from 2 to 7 pts. They also beat mediocre Tenn by 10.

Florida is noteworthy because NU's most recent opponent, Vandy, beat Florida three times. Gz margin of victory over FL was 5 pts. NU play Vandy about even, so these results suggest that NU, Vandy, FL and Gz are not very far from each other.

All things considered, NU would seem to have a pretty good shot at beating the bulldogs (at a minimum should playing them competitively).

I watched a few GU games this season. I agree with you they aren't as good as their record, but they are Top 10 good and the best team NU will have played all season. Cats will need a great effort to upset them tomorrow.

 

[Mr Wickerpark]

On the surface it seems one shouldn't evee pose the question. They are 33-1 after winning both their conference tournament and their first round NCAAT game. They must be one of the all time great college basketball teams, right?

Well, it's not so simple. They play in the WCC whose only other ranked and NCAAT team is Saint Mary. SM is currently #22, but they may be overrated: their only noticeable reg. season win was against Dayton, a solid but unranked team which also play in a smaller conference. What this means is that most of the schedule of Gz is against their unranked and not particularly distinguished conference rival. One of them, BYU, did beat Gz, but they have already lost their first NIT match. Most of Gz conference games were lopsided affairs, that surely allowed the Gz coaches to keep their starters rested, reducing opportunities for costly injuries.

The most challenging part of Gz schedule was the OOC part. There one can only find FIVE major conference teams, of which Washington had a very forgettable season, Tenn had a mediocre-at-best non-postseason one, leaving IASt, Florida and especially Arizona as the premier opponents. At the time of the game current #20 Florida wasn't even ranked (indicating that their play wasn't overly impressive at the time). ISU was #21 (now a bit lower at #23) and current #4 Arizona was then ranked #16. That's it as far a major conference teams having strong seasons.

Gz beat all three of them, but by modest margins from 2 to 7 pts. They also beat mediocre Tenn by 10.

Florida is noteworthy because NU's most recent opponent, Vandy, beat Florida three times. Gz margin of victory over FL was 5 pts. NU play Vandy about even, so these results suggest that NU, Vandy, FL and Gz are not very far from each other.

All things considered, NU would seem to have a pretty good shot at beating the bulldogs (at a minimum should playing them competitively).

Very good analysis. Thank you.

 

[Catreporter]

Gonzaga also had the advantage of playing Arizona without one of their best players (like Butler did). I think the Cats have a punchers chance, especially if they play like they did beating Michigan and Maryland.

 

[Deeringfish]

Gonzaga also had the advantage of playing Arizona without one of their best players (like Butler did). I think the Cats have a punchers chance, especially if they play like they did beating Michigan and Maryland.

This. It is important to remember that yesterday's win was not NU's best game of the season.

 

[GoZags1]

Looking forward to the game Saturday. Should be a good one ..... and Gonzaga is certainly playing the "villain" in this story that has (deservedly) captured the nation's attention.

Yes ... it's true that out of the 32 conferences that play D1 Men's hoops, the WCC ranks 9th (and meanwhile, the Big Can't Count to 10 is 5th). So as a Power 5 school the Cats DO have SOS going for them. So did Seton Hall and Utah in last year's dance (Zags beat Seton Hall by 16 and Utah by 23 as an 11 seed on their way to the Sweet 16). So did Iowa and UCLA in the '15 dance (Zags beat Iowa by 19 and UCLA by 12 in the Round of 32 and the Sweet 16 on their way to the Elite 8.

While I have Gonzaga getting past Northwestern in my bracket ... I understand that if that does happen it won't be easy ... and if it doesn't happen then the 'Cats deserve to advance. I think it's cool that SLC is packed with purple clad Wildcat fans.

I CLEARLY recall getting the stuffing hugged out of me by a close friend (since deceased) after the '99 second round game between 10 seed Gonzaga and 2 seed Stanford. At the time I said of course I was going to the Sweet 16. This was a "once in a lifetime" deal.

To me .... the story is this. Regardless of what happens tomorrow ... this ISN'T a "once in a lifetime" deal for Northwestern. It may have taken awhile ... but you guys are here. You belong. And ... you'll be back.

And I know that none of you need encouragement with the following advice ... have fun and enjoy the ride. This is a special time (although I AM hopeful my bracket remains intact).

 

[elgatoloco]

Looking forward to the game Saturday. Should be a good one ..... and Gonzaga is certainly playing the "villain" in this story that has (deservedly) captured the nation's attention.

Yes ... it's true that out of the 32 conferences that play D1 Men's hoops, the WCC ranks 9th (and meanwhile, the Big Can't Count to 10 is 5th). So as a Power 5 school the Cats DO have SOS going for them. So did Seton Hall and Utah in last year's dance (Zags beat Seton Hall by 16 and Utah by 23 as an 11 seed on their way to the Sweet 16). So did Iowa and UCLA in the '15 dance (Zags beat Iowa by 19 and UCLA by 12 in the Round of 32 and the Sweet 16 on their way to the Elite 8.

While I have Gonzaga getting past Northwestern in my bracket ... I understand that if that does happen it won't be easy ... and if it doesn't happen then the 'Cats deserve to advance. I think it's cool that SLC is packed with purple clad Wildcat fans.

I CLEARLY recall getting the stuffing hugged out of me by a close friend (since deceased) after the '99 second round game between 10 seed Gonzaga and 2 seed Stanford. At the time I said of course I was going to the Sweet 16. This was a "once in a lifetime" deal.

To me .... the story is this. Regardless of what happens tomorrow ... this ISN'T a "once in a lifetime" deal for Northwestern. It may have taken awhile ... but you guys are here. You belong. And ... you'll be back.

And I know that none of you need encouragement with the following advice ... have fun and enjoy the ride. This is a special time (although I AM hopeful my bracket remains intact).

Thanks! I've been a Zags fan since they first broke onto the scene with all those gym rats.

 

[willycat]

This. It is important to remember that yesterday's win was not NU's best game of the season.

Exactly. If Law and Lindsey can get hot and Mac keeps it up, the Sweet 16 is a possibility. If I was in Vegas I'd jump on NU and +10.

 

[kaTNap]

Took a look at the GU fan board. Basically no respect for us at all. One poster said St. Mary's (their big conference rival) would "wipe the floor" with us. Really? Not seeing it. St. Mary's beat Dayton by three at Dayton. We beat them by three on a neutral court with a lot of Dayton fans in the building. St. Mary's only game against a power 5 conference team was a 15 pt win at Stanford. Stanford finished 14-17 in the Pac 12, a league -- per the ncaa selection committee -- is weaker than the BIG. "Wipe the floor with us"? More like a pick'em.

 

[FeliSilvestris]

St. Mary's (their big conference rival) would "wipe the floor" with us. Really? Not seeing it. St. Mary's only game against a power 5 conference team was a 15 pt win at Stanford. Stanford finished 14-17 in the Pac 12, a league -- per the ncaa selection committee -- is weaker than the BIG

Hopefully the GU players view NU like their fans do. St. Mary MIGHT be good, but how would we know it if they don't play anyone really good (with the possible exception of Dayton) or from strong conferences?. Stanford has fielded strong teams in the past but definitely not this year (6-12 in PAC12). The PAC12 top 3 are impressive (top 10 nationally) but there is a huge drop in strength after those 3. The B1G has no one in the top 15 but half the conference is ranked between 16 and 35. Indy, IOA and Illy aren't among them but would have probably done well in the PAC12.

 

[FeliSilvestris]

Read score PREDICTIONS by Zags fans.

 

[julescat]

Gonzaga is much better than NU but, of course, that doesn't mean that NU can't or won't win the game tomorrow. I know I'll be watching.

 

[adoptedzag]

Read score PREDICTIONS by Zags fans.

Of course, you're on a Zags messageboard, do you expect that we'll predict that we'd be lucky to win?

Anyway, I'm looking forward to the game tomorrow. The majority of the fans in attendance will most certainly be pulling for NU. The storyline + the chance for the 1 seed to go down. It's a compelling story. Hopefully our guys take the crowd out of it early. Should be a good game.

 

[thewildcat2011]

Of course, you're on a Zags messageboard, do you expect that we'll predict that we'd be lucky to win?

Anyway, I'm looking forward to the game tomorrow. The majority of the fans in attendance will most certainly be pulling for NU. The storyline + the chance for the 1 seed to go down. It's a compelling story. Hopefully our guys take the crowd out of it early. Should be a good game.

I mean...there's a difference between predicting a win and predicting a win by 20+ points.

 

[adoptedzag]

I mean...there's a difference between predicting a win and predicting a win by 20+ points.

Reason will never win the day on a fanatic's message board, with the echo chamber effect on. We could win by 20+, but we could also lose. These are 18-22 year old kids. Anything is possible.

 

[Wrestlerneverdiesasacatfan]

Iron sharpens iron! BT is tougher

 

[GoZags1]

Iron sharpens iron! BT is tougher

Without a doubt your conference schedule is tougher. In the recent past the Zags have danced with other "Power 5" schools. They've beaten West Virginia by 23, beaten Utah by 23, beaten Seton Hall by 16, beaten St. John's by 15, beaten UCLA by a dozen

Anything can happen tomorrow but a GU win by 20 over a P5 school isn't something that would be happening for the first time ever.

 

[FeliSilvestris]

The majority of the fans in attendance will most certainly be pulling for NU. The storyline + the chance for the 1 seed to go down. It's a compelling story. Hopefully our guys take the crowd out of it early. Should be a good game.

Is there consensus on why/how BYU (which couldn't even win a game at NIT) managed to beat the Zags?
Are there obvious reasons why Northwestern couldn't "emulate" (follow the same script as) BYU? Is the Northwestern personnel similar enough to BYU's to try to "copy" BYU's strategy?
@GoZags1

 

[FeliSilvestris]

I watched a few GU games this season. I agree with you they aren't as good as their record, but they are Top 10 good and the best team NU will have played all season. Cats will need a great effort to upset them tomorrow.

Did you watch BYU's upset of the Zags? (link below)
Any obvious reasons why NU couldn't try to "copy" BYU's approach to that game?

 

[FeliSilvestris]

Did you watch BYU's upset of the Zags? (link below)
Any obvious reasons why NU couldn't try to "copy" BYU's approach to that game?

Here is a "condensed" version (extended highlights) of that game:

 

[adoptedzag]

Sure, if you can go deep into the shot clock and jack up 30ft 3s, then get the offensive rebound, be my guest.

Edit: oh, and have a fantastic night of "free throw defense" and have your best player go for 30 and 12.

 

[GoZags1]

Is there consensus on why/how BYU (which couldn't even win a game at NIT) managed to beat the Zags?
Are there obvious reasons why Northwestern couldn't "emulate" (follow the same script as) BYU? Is the Northwestern personnel similar enough to BYU's to try to "copy" BYU's strategy?
@GoZags1

BYU seriously underachieved this season. They were expected to be VERY good. They played well on GU's Senior Night and deserved the win. A couple of things helped.

GU's "Big" rotation was a man short (6' 10 Killian Tille was out). That hurt a few different ways ... as Tillie is the Zags' most "mobile"'defender. Also one of the BYU bigs is a defensive end on their football team .... and plays basketball as if he's on the gridiron. While I think the refs swallowed the whistle too many times .... when all is said and done the physical play and the loss was a learning experience for the Zags.

 

[FeliSilvestris]

Sure, if you can go deep into the shot clock and jack up 30ft 3s, then get the offensive rebound, be my guest.

Edit: oh, and have a fantastic night of "free throw defense" and have your best player go for 30 and 12.

Not sure what you mean. It seems BYU hit 38% 3P (good not great). They pulled down 12 OR (same as GU).

GU hit 55% FT (not good but not horrible).
The one stat that stands out is GUs 18% from 3P land.

Forward Mika went 10-14 (no 3P attempts) for BYU, probably mostly short-range shots.

Nothing out of this world, except for GU's extremely bad 3P shooting.

 

[adoptedzag]

Not sure what you mean. It seems BYU hit 38% 3P (good not great). They pulled down 12 OR (same as GU).

GU hit 55% FT (not good but not horrible).
The one stat that stands out is GUs 18% from 3P land.

Forward Mika went 10-14 (no 3P attempts) for BYU, probably mostly short-range shots.

Nothing out of this world, except for GU's extremely bad 3P shooting.

55% free throw shooting is horrible. No sugar coating that. like I have said in other threads, GU laid an egg. BYU is a team that lost their two seniors to season ending injuries and so they're young (read: wildly inconsistent) I wouldn't read too much into the BYU game is the point. The only thing that can be taken from it is that the guards for GU had a really really _really_ bad day at the office from three. We're a good shooting team normally, but not entirely sure what's going on. There's all kinds of theories on the GU boards and frankly, if NU does a similar strategy to SDSU, we might be in for a long night. That is unless we can break out of our 3-point funk. Like I said, these are kids, anything can happen. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Edit to add: Oh, and look at Mika's shot chart. He was throwing stuff up from wherever. All of it 2p, but showed decent range out to 15' or so.

 

[willycat]

Not sure what you mean. It seems BYU hit 38% 3P (good not great). They pulled down 12 OR (same as GU).

GU hit 55% FT (not good but not horrible).
The one stat that stands out is GUs 18% from 3P land.

Forward Mika went 10-14 (no 3P attempts) for BYU, probably mostly short-range shots.

Nothing out of this world, except for GU's extremely bad 3P shooting.

Wow those refs were really into the intentional foul calls. Hope they get the NU game tomorrow.

 

[CatChatAR]

The Zags got tight on senior night. I can see that happening. I don't see a weakness. We are going to struggle with bigs as we have all season. Didn't do well with Michigan State's Ward, struggled with Minnesota's bigs, got stuffed by the tall but not big Vandy Luke. Pardon is awesome but Karnowski is big and has a really nice touch around the rim.

 

[FeliSilvestris]

And the answer is, judging by this game, MUCH LESS good than anticipated.
NU was the sixth best team in the B1G (per official standing) and came two possessions from knocking them off even effectively playing against the refs.
No way this team would have finished better than 4-5 in the B1G. And that is without taking into account the wear and tear of playing a tough opponent just about every game. The Zags are probably a top 25 team, but not necessarily a top 20 one. I expect their run to end the next game.

 

[St_Henry_Buckeye]

They were good enough today.

 

[FeliSilvestris]

They were good enough today.

Maybe not, if you consider the refs help they got. The sum total for the game must have been worth more than 6 pts. Don't you agree?

 

[YesterdaysCat]

How good is Gonzaga really? Probably not even as good as Northwestern with good officiating. Not a true #1 seed for sure. Maybe a #2 or a #3.

 

[julescat]

You guys, Gonzaga is very good.

 

[FeliSilvestris]

You guys, Gonzaga is very good.

Well, if they are, they didn't show it today. Not in balance for the whole game. A top 4 (or close) team shouldn't need refs help to defeat the #32 team in the nation (per the Committee) by a meager 6 pts. What we saw was not the disparity between #32 and #2. More like between #32 and #25 (if that).

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Well, if they are, they didn't show it today. Not in balance for the whole game. A top 4 (or close) team shouldn't need refs help to defeat the #32 team in the nation (per the Committee) by a meager 6 pts. What we saw was not the disparity between #32 and #2. More like between #32 and #25 (if that).

Please!!! There are 34-1 and clearly a top 10 team in the country. They would have won the B1G. It kills me that people base there opinion on one game. They won today and played below average. Why don't you give the Cats some credit for a spirited comeback? Tired of hearing this narrative over and over. Cats win or play a strong team close in football and now basketball and all of a sudden that strong team is not that good.

 

[SmellyCat]

I actually thought Gonzaga was a fantastic team today. They may have had plenty of help, but I didn't walk away from this game thinking they were anything less than a national title contender. I'm proud of the Cats for going toe-to-toe with them down the stretch.

 

[NJCat]

Please!!! There are 34-1 and clearly a top 10 team in the country. They would have won the B1G. It kills me that people base there opinion on one game. They won today and played below average. Why don't you give the Cats some credit for a spirited comeback? Tired of hearing this narrative over and over. Cats win or play a strong team close in football and now basketball and all of a sudden that strong team is not that good.

Bingo. Zags were by FAR the best team NU played this season. Extremely talented, took their foot off the gas in the second half and it almost cost them. But those guys can ball.

 

[FeliSilvestris]

Please!!! There are 34-1 and clearly a top 10 team in the country. They would have won the B1G.

W/L record means nothing until you look at the strength of schedule. And it isn't very high. They did play several major conference teams and struggled with ALL of them (including NU), with the exception of Wash, who had a terrible season. See the OP.

A team that needs MASSIVE refs help to beat the sixth best B1G team by 6 pts...would NOT have won the B1G.... makes sense, right? They didn't play well today? And NU? Did they have their best game? Of course not. Look at NU's shooting.

NU deserves credit for essentially exposing that they are way overrated. If you don't believe it, then wait for the result of the next round.

 

[ctcatsfan1]

If only the Cats had played better in the 1st half just a bit.

 

[Rudolph]

People can question their conference, but Mark Few and Randy Bennett can flat out coach. And their formula makes for extremely tough teams: find tweeners, overlooked guys, international guys. Develop the hell out of them, coach the hell out of them, and keep them for four years. Culture, culture, culture. Continuity, continuity, continuity.

You guys are probably too emotionally spent to be watching Arizona-St. Mary's, but St. Mary's very well could have beaten Arizona. Several open threes that St. Mary's typically makes would not go for them.

Arizona, while blue-chip talented, is also extremely well-coached. And they had to make some seriously tough plays down the stretch to close out the Gaels.

You lost to a legit one-seed level team, conference-be-damned, coached by one of the top five coaches in the game. If McIntosh is on his game, has fresh legs, you just might have beaten them, too (never mind the officiating).

 

[FeliSilvestris]

Bingo. Zags were by FAR the best team NU played this season. Extremely talented, took their foot off the gas in the second half and it almost cost them. But those guys can ball.

Don't know which game you were watching. They looked imposing in the first half simply because NU couldn't hit a 3P to save its life. 1/11. Nugh said. In fact NU did very little right in the first half. The fact that the half-time margin was only 18 is telling.

Just image if instead of 1/11 is a meager 4/11. Those are 9 extra points, right there. Now, who wins? And that doesn't even consider the refs screw-ups against NU.

They may be a top 25 team, I'll give them that. But much closer to 25 than to 1.

 

[FeliSilvestris]

I actually thought Gonzaga was a fantastic team today. They may have had plenty of help, but I didn't walk away from this game thinking they were anything less than a national title contender. I'm proud of the Cats for going toe-to-toe with them down the stretch.

For crying out aloud a title contender cannot possible struggle so badly to beat the #32 seeded team...and only by six pts...with a lot of 'help' from the refs.
They have struggled with EVERY major conf team they have faced with the sole exception of terrible Wash. As I said above, NU played Vandy about even, and Vandy narrowly beat FL three times. The Zags only beat FL by 5. All four of the mentioned teams aren't far from each other. Todays result PROVED IT.