It's all about coaching

[phatcat]

Occasionally, a handful of exceptional players can raise a team to new heights. Perhaps they are particularly diligent, develop simultaneously, or there is some other idiosyncratic event (Walker spread offense, Moneyball).

But in the medium term, it's about coaching. There is a reason that they make so much money. Alabama was mediocre (albeit great history), prior to Saban. Likewise Oklahoma before Stoops, Stanford before (gritting my teeth) Hard-blow.

Coaches recruited the players, condition them, train them, mentor them, teach them, direct them in practice and in games. This means, that teams I dislike like Mich and Clemson, with loathsome coaches, will continue to succeed due to coaching quality. ND will continue to wallow until they get a home-run hire.

Lifetime mediocre to above average coaches like Ferentz will have occasional good years, then revert to the mean. They never get fired and no one will hire them away.

We've seen the best and worst of Fitz. Hoping for multiple B1G championships is a (crack) pipe dream. His range is 7-5, plus/minus three. That's it. He is a lot younger than me, so this is the NU football that I will get for the rest of my life. I've come to accept it

 

[gocatsgo2003]

Occasionally, a handful of exceptional players can raise a team to new heights. Perhaps they are particularly diligent, develop simultaneously, or there is some other idiosyncratic event (Walker spread offense, Moneyball).

But in the medium term, it's about coaching. There is a reason that they make so much money. Alabama was mediocre (albeit great history), prior to Saban. Likewise Oklahoma before Stoops, Stanford before (gritting my teeth) Hard-blow.

Coaches recruited the players, condition them, train them, mentor them, teach them, direct them in practice and in games. This means, that teams I dislike like Mich and Clemson, with loathsome coaches, will continue to succeed due to coaching quality. ND will continue to wallow until they get a home-run hire.

Lifetime mediocre to above average coaches like Ferentz will have occasional good years, then revert to the mean. They never get fired and no one will hire them away.

We've seen the best and worst of Fitz. Hoping for multiple B1G championships is a (crack) pipe dream. His range is 7-5, plus/minus three. That's it. He is a lot younger than me, so this is the NU football that I will get for the rest of my life. I've come to accept it

So a 10-2 season wouldn't do it for you?

For my money, Fitz has raised the "floor" for NU football substantially. We are at the point where non-bowl seasons are a disappointment, which is sadly a vast improvement relative to much of our history.

You're correct that he has some work to do in raising the "ceiling." We can talk about competitive depth all we want, but need to figure out how to compete at the highest levels. Putting aside the oft-discussed Cushing debate, I suspect Fitz will have opportunities to put his mark on the program even more sooner than later as Hankwitz is definitely toward the end of his career and guys like Brown and even McCall, Hefner, Long, and Bates aren't spring chickens anymore. Along with hiring a tenth coach this offseason, getting it right on their replacements upon retirement will be critical and an important step in continuing to push the program higher.

 

[D_C_B]

Well, GCG, you're right about that. The soft underbelly about staff consistency may very well be that when you cling to your staff forever, sooner or later, they retire and you have to do something you don't have any experience doing: finding new, talented guys that will make the program better.

I don't think I've ever heard anybody say that before because it's not the kind of thing you think about when your staff never turns over - but you're 100% completely right. Sooner or later, absent Fitz inventing immortality, that's going to be an issue for us. And it's gonna be more of an issue for us than anybody else - because we just don't do it anywhere near as often as anybody else.

I hope Phillips is around for that because he seems to have shown a good eye for that sort of thing, assuming Fitz will be willing to listen to him on that.

 

[phatcat]

So a 10-2 season wouldn't do it for you?

For my money, Fitz has raised the "floor" for NU football substantially. We are at the point where non-bowl seasons are a disappointment, which is sadly a vast improvement relative to much of our history.

You're correct that he has some work to do in raising the "ceiling." We can talk about competitive depth all we want, but need to figure out how to compete at the highest levels. Putting aside the oft-discussed Cushing debate, I suspect Fitz will have opportunities to put his mark on the program even more sooner than later as Hankwitz is definitely toward the end of his career and guys like Brown and even McCall, Hefner, Long, and Bates aren't spring chickens anymore. Along with hiring a tenth coach this offseason, getting it right on their replacements upon retirement will be critical and an important step in continuing to push the program higher.

Why do you feel like he has raised the floor? His poor seasons seem about the same as Walk, as do his mediocre ones. He has had more high end years, I agree.

Yes, 10 and 2 is ok. I am simply pointing out that (IMO), 10 wins is a ceiling, and a 4/5 win season will have to be tolerated in exchange. Fitz and Co aren't going to measurably "get better". Any marginal improvement will be offset by other dormant programs (say, ILL) getting better.

He is a likeable, and moderately more successful Carmody. Or a young Ferentz. Nothing wrong with this. Just a hard ceiling.

 

[PURPLECAT88]

Why do you feel like he has raised the floor? His poor seasons seem about the same as Walk, as do his mediocre ones. He has had more high end years, I agree.

Not quite. Walker won 4 or fewer 3 times in his 7 years. Fitz has gone ten years without winning fewer than 5. That's the very definition of raising the floor.

 

[gocatsgo2003]

Well, GCG, you're right about that. The soft underbelly about staff consistency may very well be that when you cling to your staff forever, sooner or later, they retire and you have to do something you don't have any experience doing: finding new, talented guys that will make the program better.

I don't think I've ever heard anybody say that before because it's not the kind of thing you think about when your staff never turns over - but you're 100% completely right. Sooner or later, absent Fitz inventing immortality, that's going to be an issue for us. And it's gonna be more of an issue for us than anybody else - because we just don't do it anywhere near as often as anybody else.

I hope Phillips is around for that because he seems to have shown a good eye for that sort of thing, assuming Fitz will be willing to listen to him on that.

I hope Phillips isn't involved in Fitz's hiring of assistant coaches in more than an advisory role.

 

[gocatsgo2003]

Why do you feel like he has raised the floor? His poor seasons seem about the same as Walk, as do his mediocre ones. He has had more high end years, I agree.

Yes, 10 and 2 is ok. I am simply pointing out that (IMO), 10 wins is a ceiling, and a 4/5 win season will have to be tolerated in exchange. Fitz and Co aren't going to measurably "get better". Any marginal improvement will be offset by other dormant programs (say, ILL) getting better.

He is a likeable, and moderately more successful Carmody. Or a young Ferentz. Nothing wrong with this. Just a hard ceiling.

@PURPLECAT88 explained it pretty well... Fitz's "bad seasons" aren't quite as bad as even Walker's and clearly better than Barnett's, especially if we don't include Fitz's first season. 2013 is really the only "bad season" after 2006 and, even then, we lost four one-score B1G games (five if you exclude the garbage-time TD against OSU).

 

[NJCat]

Not quite. Walker won 4 or fewer 3 times in his 7 years. Fitz has gone ten years without winning fewer than 5. That's the very definition of raising the floor.

How many FCS teams did Walk play?

 

[Hungry Jack]

When I was a precocious undergrad in the late 80s, running around campus with my Top Gun-inspired crew cut, bomber jacket, stone-washed jeans, and unlaced Reeboks, the though of a 6-win season being a disappointment was laughable.

PF has undoubtedly elevated the program primarily by raising the talent floor and assembling notable roster depth.But the next level to break through is winning the West. I think PF can do it.

 

[NJCat]

But the next level to break through is winning the West. I think PF can do it.

So did many BTN "experts" before this season. Seems far fetched right about now. NU opened as a 2 TD dog for this Saturday afternoon.

 

[D_C_B]

I hope Phillips isn't involved in Fitz's hiring of assistant coaches in more than an advisory role.

That's exactly what I meant. I hope Phillips can say "these are the 8 things I insist on in every hire" or whatever it is he's doing right.

 

[Catreporter]

Two ten win seasons and two bowl wins over power-5 opponents in the last five years have definitely raised the bar. And while Fitz did play some FCS teams in there, the overall level of competition in the Big Ten and college football in general has definitely increased over his tenure. Latest example: Wake routs BC and then edges Appalachian State by one point the next week.

 

[Hungry Jack]

So did many BTN "experts" before this season. Seems far fetched right about now. NU opened as a 2 TD dog for this Saturday afternoon.

I am not expecting it this season, given what we have seen thus far. I am not sure that all the injuries in the secondary will matter in this regard. I think the bigger issue is talent in the trenches, especially on offense.

But over the past ten years, we have seen flashes of "difference-making" talent at all positions. more so on defense. It can be done, but it is going to require a coincidence of a few very good classes where we assemble:
1) O-line talent like we saw in the first part of 2000s
2) D-Line talent of the likes of Lowery, Wootton, Gill, Cofield, Castillo, Howard, Bryant, Arnfelt, McEvilly, etc.
3) RB talent like we have today.
4) A player like Carr, Ebert, Zeke, Brewer, etc. at WR

and so on.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Actually it is all about recruiting. Get great recruits and an average coach WILL win. Get average recruits and a great coach MIGHT win.

 

[hdhntr1]

Not quite. Walker won 4 or fewer 3 times in his 7 years. Fitz has gone ten years without winning fewer than 5. That's the very definition of raising the floor.

Absolutely. And Walker never won more than 8 games. Fitz has gotten to 10 twice. So maybe the number is 8 plus or minus 3 rather than 7. Range 5 to 11. Average 8 which now means on average 5 BIG wins (which is averaging a winning BIG record.

I would say he has the potential to move that up one game to a 9 game +-3 range. Just remember, we always said we had the most difficulty recruiting DBs and DEs and training them up and now, we have pretty good DBs and we are getting some pretty good DEs who after a couple years in the system tend to do pretty well. If going forward, we can get OL back to where we were earlier through better recruiting (Taj Fitz) and better development, a move up if a game in that range is definitely possible Maybe by getting a solid OL coach for that 10th coach. Doing so gets us to a range of 6-12 .

We will probably never be the consistent power just because it is much harder for us to get the depth of the top programs. But a program in that range is pretty solid.

 

[NJCat]

Actually it is all about recruiting. Get great recruits and an average coach WILL win. Get average recruits and a great coach MIGHT win.

Didn't work out that way for Charlie Strong at UT......

 

[phatcat]

Not quite. Walker won 4 or fewer 3 times in his 7 years. Fitz has gone ten years without winning fewer than 5. That's the very definition of raising the floor.

That's fair. And despite the FCS meme, we've also beaten some good non conf foes.

I guess I am feeling like we've plateaued. If someone had told you four years ago that Thor and JJTBC would be at this level, and we'd still be middle of the pack, wouldn't you be unpleasantly surprised?

 

[Gladeskat]

Not quite. Walker won 4 or fewer 3 times in his 7 years. Fitz has gone ten years without winning fewer than 5. That's the very definition of raising the floor.

How much did he "raise the floor" by scheduling FCS and horrid FBS teams? Walker didn't schedule FCS teams.

 

[hdhntr1]

How much did he "raise the floor" by scheduling FCS and horrid FBS teams? Walker didn't schedule FCS teams.

First, aren't the schedules set years in advance? Second does the HC schedule? So likely the schedules that included FCS or bad FBS teams were set during the Walker years. And they were set up by someone else other than Fitz. And we lost to a couple of those "gimme "FCS programs and still did not drop below 5 wins. We never had more than one and still had two more wins than Walker's low point. So yes, Fitz raised the floor.

 

[Gladeskat]

First, aren't the schedules set years in advance? Second does the HC schedule? So likely the schedules that included FCS or bad FBS teams were set during the Walker years. And they were set up by someone else other than Fitz. And we lost to a couple of those "gimme "FCS programs and still did not drop below 5 wins. We never had more than one and still had two more wins than Walker's low point. So yes, Fitz raised the floor.

We're talking about their records! Who scheduled them is irrelevant.

Fitz got 7-8 easy FCS wins plus easy MAC series with EMU, etc. The OOC schedule has been tougher the past 5 years or so. Walker never had.FCS games or "EMU" games. Instead, Walker had to play TCU (4X), ASU (2X), Kansas (2X), Duke (2X). I'm not going to go into comparative numerology.

 

[Deeringfish]

That's exactly what I meant. I hope Phillips can say "these are the 8 things I insist on in every hire" or whatever it is he's doing right.

Fitz needs to say "Teach me, Obi-wan."
I've seen nothing in Fitz that would indicate he would not reach out to a team member gifted in a certain area.

 

[NJCat]

Fitz needs to say "Teach me, Obi-wan."

More like, "Teach me, Obi-Nick" or "Teach me, Obi-Urban"

 

[Deeringfish]

So a 10-2 season wouldn't do it for you?

For my money, Fitz has raised the "floor" for NU football substantially. We are at the point where non-bowl seasons are a disappointment, which is sadly a vast improvement relative to much of our history.

You're correct that he has some work to do in raising the "ceiling." We can talk about competitive depth all we want, but need to figure out how to compete at the highest levels. Putting aside the oft-discussed Cushing debate, I suspect Fitz will have opportunities to put his mark on the program even more sooner than later as Hankwitz is definitely toward the end of his career and guys like Brown and even McCall, Hefner, Long, and Bates aren't spring chickens anymore. Along with hiring a tenth coach this offseason, getting it right on their replacements upon retirement will be critical and an important step in continuing to push the program higher.

A little turnover in coaching, a little bump in recruiting and development from the new facility, could get us one more game a year. That will be the new floor. NU actually needs to hire an assistant that people want to hire away from us.

 

[Deeringfish]

More like, "Teach me, Obi-Nick" or "Teach me, Obi-Urban"

Those guys may be good at hiring staff too but Phillips is on his team and has a good track record.

 

[NJCat]

Those guys may be good at hiring staff too but Phillips is on his team and has a good track record.

I'd like to see Fitz reach out to CCC. He actually had a coach on his staff who was recruited to be a head coach. By all indications, a great coaching staff at recruiting and developing players!

 

[gocatsgo2003]

I'd like to see Fitz reach out to CCC. He actually had a coach on his staff who was recruited to be a head coach. By all indications, a great coaching staff at recruiting and developing players!

So does Fitz. A couple, in fact. Didn't end up getting the jobs, but were on short lists.

 

[NJCat]

So does Fitz. A couple, in fact. Didn't end up getting the jobs, but were on short lists.

Fair enough.

 

[PURPLECAT88]

More like, "Teach me, Obi-Nick" or "Teach me, Obi-Urban"

Or he could learn from both just by talking to our own #66.

 

[Catreporter]

We're talking about their records! Who scheduled them is irrelevant.

Fitz got 7-8 easy FCS wins plus easy MAC series with EMU, etc. The OOC schedule has been tougher the past 5 years or so. Walker never had.FCS games or "EMU" games. Instead, Walker had to play TCU (4X), ASU (2X), Kansas (2X), Duke (2X). I'm not going to go into comparative numerology.

Walker really stabilized things after Barnett left abruptly and his imaginative offense brought a championship, but Fitz has built on that. Went 10-3 playing 3 power-5 teams in noncon in 2012 and beat Stanford and Duke going 10-3 in 2015. He's also won two more bowl games than Randy did.

 

[hdhntr1]

We're talking about their records! Who scheduled them is irrelevant.

Fitz got 7-8 easy FCS wins plus easy MAC series with EMU, etc. The OOC schedule has been tougher the past 5 years or so. Walker never had.FCS games or "EMU" games. Instead, Walker had to play TCU (4X), ASU (2X), Kansas (2X), Duke (2X). I'm not going to go into comparative numerology.

You indicated Fitz scheduled them to pad his record and I just suggested he did not. Many of those games were scheduled during the Walker regime. (a example is New Hampshire in Fitz first year. Think he scheduled that?) Part was due to the moving to 12 games (requiring an extra OOC game) and then originally requiring 7 games to get to a bowl and NCAA allowing the FCS games to count. But a couple Walker teams played two MAC teams in a year and he had a hard time beating them. Also had trouble with service academies.

 

[Figrating]

The factor separating the great coaches from lifetime mediocre to above-average coaches is their ability to recruit. While Fitz has borne the various NU burdens well, he seems to have a philosophy that the recruiting world is full of players like himself. Rankings be damned, the "fit" players he recruits can be built into all-conference level players and more. Not happening to date.

With the facilities burden out of the way and replaced with the Taj adjacent to the lakeview practice field, I'm hoping Fitz can start to land about 4+ 4-star recruits per year. That should be enough to make NU consistently competitive.

If not, let's accept phat's conclusion that we've already seen what Fitz can do and we're gonna see a lot more of it.

 

[hdhntr1]

The factor separating the great coaches from lifetime mediocre to above-average coaches is their ability to recruit. While Fitz has borne the various NU burdens well, he seems to have a philosophy that the recruiting world is full of players like himself. Rankings be damned, the "fit" players he recruits can be built into all-conference level players and more. Not happening to date.

With the facilities burden out of the way and replaced with the Taj adjacent to the lakeview practice field, I'm hoping Fitz can start to land about 4+ 4-star recruits per year. That should be enough to make NU consistently competitive.

If not, let's accept phat's conclusion that we've already seen what Fitz can do and we're gonna see a lot more of it.

He has found a few and recruiting does seem to be improving at several positions. But with NU's restrictions, it is hard to get the top quality and every bit as important the depth. The confusing part is the continued weakness at OL. I mean, supposedly, that is an area that our academic constraints should be less of an issue.

 

[Gladeskat]

You indicated Fitz scheduled them to pad his record and I just suggested he did not. Many of those games were scheduled during the Walker regime. (a example is New Hampshire in Fitz first year. Think he scheduled that?) Part was due to the moving to 12 games (requiring an extra OOC game) and then originally requiring 7 games to get to a bowl and NCAA allowing the FCS games to count. But a couple Walker teams played two MAC teams in a year and he had a hard time beating them. Also had trouble with service academies.

Fair enough. I did imply Fitz was responsible for scheduling. However, there is no doubt Fit's OOC schedules for his first five years were much easier than Walker's. Fitz losing to Illinois state takes the fecal coaching cake.

 

[hdhntr1]

Fair enough. I did imply Fitz was responsible for scheduling. However, there is no doubt Fit's OOC schedules for his first five years were much easier than Walker's. Fitz losing to Illinois state takes the fecal coaching cake.

Again, it was during Walker regime that they went to 12 games and 4 OOC games. Left teams scrambling to get that 4th OOC game. NCAA allowed one FCS game to count and pretty much everyone scheduled them. Remember Mich losing to Appalation State? The first FCS game scheduled was in Fitz first year and that was for Walker. Walker's last few years he had Ohio on the schedule. EMU was because they were available. And again, going from 11 games to 12 meant that they had to have 7 victories so the compromise was that one FCS game would count

 

[Styre]

And we lost to a couple of those "gimme "FCS programs and still did not drop below 5 wins.

2006 we lost to an FCS team and finished 4-8.

 

[NJCat]

2006 we lost to an FCS team and finished 4-8.

Mulligan year. That was an excellent FCS team and the first season for Fitz. Given the circumstances it was a miracle they won 4 games. No shame in anything that season.

 

[NJCat]

Remember Mich losing to Appalation State?

Appalation [sic] State????

You better never show your face in beautiful Boone, NC....

 

[MRCat95]

When I was a precocious undergrad in the late 80s, running around campus with my Top Gun-inspired crew cut, bomber jacket, stone-washed jeans, and unlaced Reeboks, the though of a 6-win season being a disappointment was laughable.

PF has undoubtedly elevated the program primarily by raising the talent floor and assembling notable roster depth.But the next level to break through is winning the West. I think PF can do it.

The B1G went to two divisions in 2011. Here's how many wins short NU was in each year to be division champs.

2011 - At least 3 away.
2012 - 1 Away (with 3 blown golden opportunities). This is the one that really got away.
2013 - At least 7 away. Crappiest crap in recent memory.
2014 - 4 away
2015 - 1 away. Just beat Iowa, and you're in the B1G championship game!
2016 - At least 1 away (probably 2). Beating Wiscy would have created four 6-3 teams. Probably needed one more to break tie.

In six seasons with two B1G divisions, NU has been in striking distance (defined as 1 or no more than 2 wins away) 3 times. You don't have to be a Pollyanna to think it can get done.

3 out of the 6 (e.g., 2011, 2013 and 2014) teams either stunk or were middling.

2012's squad was really the best NU team since at least 1996. The three B1G losses that year were truly capitalistic blown opportunities. Good offense with big play ability. Efficient grinding (option) run game with Colter/Mark. Solid vertical passing game with TS. Good defense. Good special teams. That team really missed a golden opportunity versus Michigan, Penn State and/or Nebraska. NU's 2012 team finished ranked #17, which was the highest of any Legends team. That was higher than Michigan (24) and Nebraska (25). Because OSU and Penn State technically could not be ranked in 2012 (due to probation), NU technically finished the season as the highest ranked B1G team. (Note: Wisconsin won the Big Ten with a 4-4 record that season because Penn State and Ohio State were ineligible in the leaders division.)

The 2015 NU team might have had the best NU defense in program history. Too bad it might have had the worst NU offense in history. Don't crap the bed against Iowa, and you're in the B1G championship game!

2016's team, despite disappointing early season losses and and laying some eggs in conference play, was still within striking distance. The rest of the West wasn't that great either.

 

[hdhntr1]

Mulligan year. That was an excellent FCS team and the first season for Fitz. Given the circumstances it was a miracle they won 4 games. No shame in anything that season.

And that game against IA was one of his best coached games to date.

 

[NJCat]

And that game against IA was one of his best coached games to date.

The fact that they rebounded from a loss that was/is the biggest deficit overcome in NCAA history to finish the season 2-2 in the Big 10 is pretty remarkable. Fabulous job by the first year head ball coach.