My one disappointment about this year

[eastbaycat99]

With the conference being a little soft and the Cats strong, this was a year they could have conceivably won a share of, if not an outright conference title. While counterfactuals are always dicey, it is pretty easy to imagine Buie’s runner at Purdue going in and Berry avoiding his collision against Nebraska. If Boo scores, the Cats win that game, and it is hard to imagine them losing at Rutgers with Berry available. That would leave them at 13-4, with Purdue at 14-4 and Illinois 11-5.

With the standings at that level, there are multiple scenarios that end up with the Cats at the top of the conference, particularly since Purdue still has to visit the Illini.

I would really like to see NU win the conference, and this was easily their best chance in the 50+ years I have been a fan.

 

[CappyNU]

Just to be clear, NU still has a path to the 1-seed for the conference tourney. It simply requires:

1) NU winning out (4.8% chance of occurrence per KenPom)
2) Nebraska winning out (25.5% chance)
3) Purdue losing out (1.7% chance)
4) Illinois beating Purdue and losing two other games (7.5% chance)
5) MSU losing to us while beating Purdue and IU (3.7% chance)
6) Wisconsin beating Purdue and losing one other game (2.6% chance)

So that gives us a 0.0000015% chance, or a 1 in a 66.7 million shot if I did my math right.

 

[Hungry Jack]

We have been really close on the road (except Illinois). A few more bounces (or calls) and we could be sitting 12-4 right now. But I will take where we are at.

At the beginning of the season, I thought Minnesota would be bad and Nebraska decent but not the good team they are right now.

 

[Catdude]

With major caveats that every team can play the “what if” game and we also have had close games go our way, we are two end-game Boo misses (the runner against Purdue and the almost and-1 against Minnesota) away from 12-4 in conference and probably ranked around 15th.

 

[GatoLouco]

With major caveats that every team can play the “what if” game and we also have had close games go our way, we are two end-game Boo misses (the runner against Purdue and the almost and-1 against Minnesota) away from 12-4 in conference and probably ranked around 15th.

I've said it before I think this team is arguably the best team NU ever had. And it's heavily based on how close we were to actually winning the conference.

But I do understand other teams also have what ifs. And there are what ifs in some games we won. We came within one shot, from burning hot Jamir Young, of losing at home to Maryland.

 

[KramerCat91]

Just to be clear, NU still has a path to the 1-seed for the conference tourney. It simply requires:

1) NU winning out (4.8% chance of occurrence per KenPom)
2) Nebraska winning out (25.5% chance)
3) Purdue losing out (1.7% chance)
4) Illinois beating Purdue and losing two other games (7.5% chance)
5) MSU losing to us while beating Purdue and IU (3.7% chance)
6) Wisconsin beating Purdue and losing one other game (2.6% chance)

So that gives us a 0.0000015% chance, or a 1 in a 66.7 million shot if I did my math right.

Cappy your math or your conditions are not correct because Illinois beating Purdue, MSU beating Purdue and Wisconsin beating Purdue is already part of condition no. 3, Purdue loses out.

 

[CappyNU]

Cappy your math or your conditions are not correct because Illinois beating Purdue, MSU beating Purdue and Wisconsin beating Purdue is already part of condition no. 3, Purdue loses out.

Oh, good point! Let's try again:

1) NU winning out (4.8% chance of occurrence per KenPom)
2) Nebraska winning out (25.5% chance)
3) Purdue losing out (1.7% chance)
4) Illinois loses two other games (20.1% chance)
5) MSU beats IU (70% chance)
6) Wisconsin loses one other game (31% chance)

So that gives us a 0.00089% chance, or about a 1 in 112,000 chance. That's way more likely!

 

[SmellyCat]

I love math almost as much as basketball (not really). Yes, there was some overlap, but that's ok.

I agree with those who say this is the best NU team ever. Especially during that brief period when Nicholson had turned it around, Barnhizer was on fire, and before Berry got hurt. But even with NU not having all of its cylinders clicking at once, they've had more cylinders this year than any other I can remember.

Last year most were shocked that NU was so good. This year we started the year *expecting* the tourney. I'm not sure - with the possible exception of 2017 - the NU fanbase ever felt that way at the beginning of the season. And even an occasional Chicago State loss, etc. is not enough to sway me.

 

[phatcat]

With the conference being a little soft and the Cats strong, this was a year they could have conceivably won a share of, if not an outright conference title. While counterfactuals are always dicey, it is pretty easy to imagine Buie’s runner at Purdue going in and Berry avoiding his collision against Nebraska. If Boo scores, the Cats win that game, and it is hard to imagine them losing at Rutgers with Berry available. That would leave them at 13-4, with Purdue at 14-4 and Illinois 11-5.

With the standings at that level, there are multiple scenarios that end up with the Cats at the top of the conference, particularly since Purdue still has to visit the Illini.

I would really like to see NU win the conference, and this was easily their best chance in the 50+ years I have been a fan.

I'm less "what-if about Ty's injury, everyone gets them, but the flagrant on Borg re RU, the missed leg sweep foul against Ty, and the missed baseline charge v PU really get me. Those are just BS calls

 

[diblakley]

I've said it before I think this team is arguably the best team NU ever had. And it's heavily based on how close we were to actually winning the conference.

But I do understand other teams also have what ifs. And there are what ifs in some games we won. We came within one shot, from burning hot Jamir Young, of losing at home to Maryland.

I was at that Maryland game and Jamir was getting anything he wanted going to the basket all game. Why in the world he chose to shoot that jump shot with the game on the line, I'll never know. Sure glad he did but it's mighty puzzling.

 

[CappyNU]

Oh, good point! Let's try again:

1) NU winning out (4.8% chance of occurrence per KenPom)
2) Nebraska winning out (25.5% chance)
3) Purdue losing out (1.7% chance)
4) Illinois loses two other games (20.1% chance)
5) MSU beats IU (70% chance)
6) Wisconsin loses one other game (31% chance)

So that gives us a 0.00089% chance, or about a 1 in 112,000 chance. That's way more likely!

Indiana 74 - Wisconsin 70

 

[SmellyCat]

Indiana 74 - Wisconsin 70

I figured now that this happened, our chances are like 50/50, right?

 

[CatManTrue]

Indiana 74 - Wisconsin 70

I hate to burst your bubble, but the Truth is that we lost our shot at the #1 when we blew the Rutgers, Minnesota, Nebraska, second Purdue, and Wisconsin games.

If we had won 2-3 of those… we’d be sitting pretty.

We had our chances. Now, the focus is on March.

 

[CappyNU]

I figured now that this happened, our chances are like 50/50, right?

Just about! We're now down to a 0.00287% chance, or about 1 in 34,850! Practically signed, sealed and delivered.

 

[Hungry Jack]

Wisconsin still has to play Illinois (at home) and Purdue (away).

 

[CappyNU]

Ok, so:

1) NU winning out (13.6% chance of occurrence per KenPom)
2) Nebraska winning out (25.5% chance)
3) Purdue losing out (1.5% chance)
4) Illinois loses two other games (19.8% chance)
5) MSU beats IU (69% chance)
6) Wisconsin loses one other game (COMPLETE)

So that gives us a 0.00746% chance, or about a 1 in 13,405 chance. Looking better every day!

 

[SmellyCat]

I will admit I came to this thread last night to see the numbers change. Saturday will be an interesting day to shift these numbers!

 

[TheC]

I was at that Maryland game and Jamir was getting anything he wanted going to the basket all game. Why in the world he chose to shoot that jump shot with the game on the line, I'll never know. Sure glad he did but it's mighty puzzling.

Fatigue perhaps.

 

[CappyNU]

Ok, so I have even more clear numbers now. There are currently 17 games left that have an impact on the double bye, which means there are 131,072 possible combinations remaining for the standings.

For us to get 1st place, the following has to happen regardless: NU wins out (14-6), PU loses out (14-6), IL beats Purdue and loses to WI and Iowa (13-7), WI beats PU and IL (12-8 or 13-7)

That leaves us with 512 possible combinations. Here are the additional scenarios under which we can finish in 1st:
64 combinations: Nebraska wins out (13-7), Illinois and Nebraska tie for 3rd at 13-7
48 combinations: Nebraska loses one game (12-8), Wisconsin loses to Rutgers (12-8), MSU beats IU (11-9) - Neb and Wisconsin tie for 4th, MSU 6th
44 combinations: Nebraska loses one game (12-8), Wisconsin loses to Rutgers (12-8), MSU loses to IU (10-10), Rutgers loses to Neb, OSU or Michigan (9-11) - Neb and Wisconsin tie for 4th, MSU ties with some combination of Iowa, Minny, PSU and IU for 6th at 10-10

So 156 combinations out of 131,072 get us to 1st place, and per Kenpom, the probabilities of that occurring are currently 0.0138%, or 1 in 7,236. It's practically in the bag!

 

[KramerCat91]

Ok, so:

1) NU winning out (13.6% chance of occurrence per KenPom)
2) Nebraska winning out (25.5% chance)
3) Purdue losing out (1.5% chance)
4) Illinois loses two other games (19.8% chance)
5) MSU beats IU (69% chance)
6) Wisconsin loses one other game (COMPLETE)

So that gives us a 0.00746% chance, or about a 1 in 13,405 chance. Looking better every day!

It looks to me that we would be B10 co-champions if 1) and 3) happen and Illinois loses at least one of its 2 games other than Purdue. So about 0.13% chance or 1 chance in 760!

 

[Baz=Heisman]

Ok, so:

1) NU winning out (13.6% chance of occurrence per KenPom)
2) Nebraska winning out (25.5% chance)
3) Purdue losing out (1.5% chance)
4) Illinois loses two other games (19.8% chance)
5) MSU beats IU (69% chance)
6) Wisconsin loses one other game (COMPLETE)

So that gives us a 0.00746% chance, or about a 1 in 13,405 chance. Looking better every day!

Brick by brick!!

 

[GatoLouco]

Ok, so I have even more clear numbers now. There are currently 17 games left that have an impact on the double bye, which means there are 131,072 possible combinations remaining for the standings.

For us to get 1st place, the following has to happen regardless: NU wins out (14-6), PU loses out (14-6), IL beats Purdue and loses to WI and Iowa (13-7), WI beats PU and IL (12-8 or 13-7)

That leaves us with 512 possible combinations. Here are the additional scenarios under which we can finish in 1st:
64 combinations: Nebraska wins out (13-7), Illinois and Nebraska tie for 3rd at 13-7
48 combinations: Nebraska loses one game (12-8), Wisconsin loses to Rutgers (12-8), MSU beats IU (11-9) - Neb and Wisconsin tie for 4th, MSU 6th
44 combinations: Nebraska loses one game (12-8), Wisconsin loses to Rutgers (12-8), MSU loses to IU (10-10), Rutgers loses to Neb, OSU or Michigan (9-11) - Neb and Wisconsin tie for 4th, MSU ties with some combination of Iowa, Minny, PSU and IU for 6th at 10-10

So 156 combinations out of 131,072 get us to 1st place, and per Kenpom, the probabilities of that occurring are currently 0.0138%, or 1 in 7,236. It's practically in the bag!

Order the banner already

 

[AdamOnFirst]

Can we just get a double bye calculation?

 

[CappyNU]

Can we just get a double bye calculation?

Will need to look further, but right now we have a 58.7% chance of going either 13-7 or 14-6, and we will make the top-4 in 98.8% of those situations. The only area where we get screwed is if we end up in a tie with Nebraska and Wisconsin, then we end up 5th, but that requires Nebraska and Wisconsin winning out, which is far more likely for Nebraska than Wisconsin. Will need to look through the tiebreakers for the 12-8 and 11-9 scenarios.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

This year we started the year *expecting* the tourney.

I don't think that is really accurate.
I can vaguely recall some animated discussions about how much we were going to miss Audige, Beran and Roper.

Well, maybe not so much...

 

[SmellyCat]

I don't think that is really accurate.
I can vaguely recall some animated discussions about how much we were going to miss Audige, Beran and Roper.

Well, maybe not so much...

Hmmm. You might be right. I know I was excited and expected big things but I was worried about starting the conference season with Purdue. After that though…anything less than a tourney bid would be a huge disappointment.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Hmmm. You might be right. I know I was excited and expected big things but I was worried about starting the conference season with Purdue. After that though…anything less than a tourney bid would be a huge disappointment.

Not me, I thought we had an uphill battle to make the tourney. I had no idea Langborg would be so effective that he is the third best player on the team. The progression of Nick was faster than I thought possible. I will happily say I was wrong.

 

[AdamOnFirst]

Will need to look further, but right now we have a 58.7% chance of going either 13-7 or 14-6, and we will make the top-4 in 98.8% of those situations. The only area where we get screwed is if we end up in a tie with Nebraska and Wisconsin, then we end up 5th, but that requires Nebraska and Wisconsin winning out, which is far more likely for Nebraska than Wisconsin. Will need to look through the tiebreakers for the 12-8 and 11-9 scenarios.

So much for Nebraska winning out!

 

[CappyNU]

So much for Nebraska winning out!

Yep, first place, once so close you could touch it, is now much more of a pipe dream. Only 16 combinations out of 32,768, 0.0036% or a 1 in 27,778 chance.

Meanwhile, for the double bye:
13.65% chance we finish 14-6, 100% chance of double bye
45.05% chance we finish 13-7, 100% chance of double bye
33.95% chance we finish 12-8, 74% chance of double bye
7.35% chance we finish 11-9, 4% chance of double bye

All of that is to say that right now, we have an 84% chance of receiving a double bye, and if we win one more game, that chance goes up to 90%.