Northwestern/Big 10 future

[Rodenthater]

I know this is going to get a lot of scrutiny but I'll just throw this out for discussion; I was talking to my brother who is a H.S. football referee there in Illinois and after talking to him , he said that he was talking to a former Big10 official and his take is that because Northwestern is the smallest school in the conference and their wanting to add Missouri or the school in South Bend and because outside of its small fan base, this all happened to tell the school after 1-10; 0-11; 1-10 seasons that Nu just can't compete with the other programs.
To me it makes sense what's behind all this!

 

[Sheffielder]

This is no-nothing stupidity at its finest.

Northwestern's membership in the Big Ten is in no danger, period.

Literally, the only way NU loses its footing is if the richest 30-50 programs decide to do their own NFL...which, honestly...will probably happen in my lifetime. And that will hit NU just like it will hit Purdue, Sparty, Iowa, and plenty of others - and the programs will survive just fine; just not get a bite of billion-dollar tv deals anymore...and that might not be such a bad thing either.

But the whole "Northwestern is smaller and the other schools don't want them in anymore" is the dumbest argument I've ever heard and makes me equally laugh and roll my eyes any time it comes up.

 

[Eurocat]

The Big Ten wants to Chicago TV market. Some of the best viewed colllege games of all time (not including playoff games) have been NU games. If that is true, Vanderbilt would be kicked out of SEC, Duke out of the ACC, I just don't see any of that happening. Heck if anything, we make them look good. "What do you mean all our kids are just there for the sports...look at all the great students a (blank) university...".

 

[kaTNap]

this all happened to tell the school after 1-10; 0-11; 1-10 seasons that Nu just can't compete with the other programs.
To me it makes sense what's behind all this!

Same story as in 1981.

First I've heard about the B1G wanting to add Mizzou ... probably not going to happen. And TSISB would join the SEC just to spite the B1G, if their fans had their way.

 

[ricko654321]

I know this is going to get a lot of scrutiny but I'll just throw this out for discussion; I was talking to my brother who is a H.S. football referee there in Illinois and after talking to him , he said that he was talking to a former Big10 official and his take is that because Northwestern is the smallest school in the conference and their wanting to add Missouri or the school in South Bend and because outside of its small fan base, this all happened to tell the school after 1-10; 0-11; 1-10 seasons that Nu just can't compete with the other programs.
To me it makes sense what's behind all this!

let's not dignify this thread by responding on it further...

 

[Sheffielder]

This is also a good time to bring up the Big Ten Academic Alliance fka the Committee on Institutional Cooperation, but sportsball fans don't really know anything about that...

 

[corbi296]

This is no-nothing stupidity at its finest.

Northwestern's membership in the Big Ten is in no danger, period.

Literally, the only way NU loses its footing is if the richest 30-50 programs decide to do their own NFL...which, honestly...will probably happen in my lifetime. And that will hit NU just like it will hit Purdue, Sparty, Iowa, and plenty of others - and the programs will survive just fine; just not get a bite of billion-dollar tv deals anymore...and that might not be such a bad thing either.

But the whole "Northwestern is smaller and the other schools don't want them in anymore" is the dumbest argument I've ever heard and makes me equally laugh and roll my eyes any time it comes up.

I agree the bigger threat is the Big Ten and all other P5 conferences as we know them splintering because schools like OSU, Michigan, Penn State, USC and UCLA splinter off into a new elite conference. The rest of the schools will be forced to pick up the pieces and run athletic departments with a fraction of the financial resources that schools like NU currently get from their Big Ten affiliation. It will be a really big problem.

 

[Sheffielder]

I agree the bigger threat is the Big Ten and all other P5 conferences as we know them splintering because schools like OSU, Michigan, Penn State, USC and UCLA splinter off into a new elite conference. The rest of the schools will be forced to pick up the pieces and run athletic departments with a fraction of the financial resources that schools like NU currently get from their Big Ten affiliation. It will be a really big problem.

Honestly, if this happened tomorrow I wouldn't be all that upset about it.

I've said for years now that we're not really even playing the same sport as Ohio State, Alabama, et al, and NIL hasn't helped that problem.

I would be fine with a 12-game schedule against more modest opponents (and let's agree: plenty of P5 schools would be left behind to yield great games and gameday environments) - I think a version of college football exists where NU can compete without paying each starter a million dollars.

 

[cubuffsdoug]

I agree the bigger threat is the Big Ten and all other P5 conferences as we know them splintering because schools like OSU, Michigan, Penn State, USC and UCLA splinter off into a new elite conference. The rest of the schools will be forced to pick up the pieces and run athletic departments with a fraction of the financial resources that schools like NU currently get from their Big Ten affiliation. It will be a really big problem.

The problem with that is not one of those schools can handle finishing last. Too much pride/ego to put themselves in that position to be a loser.

 

[Chucksizzle1]

I know this is going to get a lot of scrutiny but I'll just throw this out for discussion; I was talking to my brother who is a H.S. football referee there in Illinois and after talking to him , he said that he was talking to a former Big10 official and his take is that because Northwestern is the smallest school in the conference and their wanting to add Missouri or the school in South Bend and because outside of its small fan base, this all happened to tell the school after 1-10; 0-11; 1-10 seasons that Nu just can't compete with the other programs.
To me it makes sense what's behind all this!

That’s very plausible. the faction that wanted to get out of Fitz contract and poured gasoline on the student newspapers tabloid rumor mongering also wants to deemphasize sports, at least at the P5 level.

I don’t think Northwestern will be in the Big long term.

 

[hdhntr1]

This is no-nothing stupidity at its finest.

Northwestern's membership in the Big Ten is in no danger, period.

Literally, the only way NU loses its footing is if the richest 30-50 programs decide to do their own NFL...which, honestly...will probably happen in my lifetime. And that will hit NU just like it will hit Purdue, Sparty, Iowa, and plenty of others - and the programs will survive just fine; just not get a bite of billion-dollar tv deals anymore...and that might not be such a bad thing either.

But the whole "Northwestern is smaller and the other schools don't want them in anymore" is the dumbest argument I've ever heard and makes me equally laugh and roll my eyes any time it comes up.

This clown show makes it bad enough and that membership could be in danger despite all the safeguards

 

[phatcat]

I agree the bigger threat is the Big Ten and all other P5 conferences as we know them splintering because schools like OSU, Michigan, Penn State, USC and UCLA splinter off into a new elite conference. The rest of the schools will be forced to pick up the pieces and run athletic departments with a fraction of the financial resources that schools like NU currently get from their Big Ten affiliation. It will be a really big problem.

Funny thing is, from 2000 to 2018 we were probably as good as UCLA, and USC has been inconsistent as hell. But I'm sure you mean elite in terms of money potential, and we surely lag there.

 

[corbi296]

Honestly, if this happened tomorrow I wouldn't be all that upset about it.

I've said for years now that we're not really even playing the same sport as Ohio State, Alabama, et al, and NIL hasn't helped that problem.

I would be fine with a 12-game schedule against more modest opponents (and let's agree: plenty of P5 schools would be left behind to yield great games and gameday environments) - I think a version of college football exists where NU can compete without paying each starter a million dollars.

Sure but the problem arises when it comes to money. All the money would go to that mega conference. The TV money for the rest of the schools would be a fraction of what it is now. How does that impact scholarship numbers, coaching staff budgets, budget for facilities. Not just for football but for all the other sports that football currently funds at NU. Not sure Kelly Amonte Hiller would be at NU in that scenario.

 

[corbi296]

That’s very plausible. the faction that wanted to get out of Fitz contract and poured gasoline on the student newspapers tabloid rumor mongering also wants to deemphasize sports, at least at the P5 level.

I don’t think Northwestern will be in the Big long term.

I agree that faction at NU played a very big role in how things played out with Fitz.

 

[1830sherman]

This is no-nothing stupidity at its finest.

No offense to you at all, Sheffielder, but this is either brilliant or merely classic.

 

[Jaguar 88]

Funny thing is, from 2000 to 2018 we were probably as good as UCLA, and USC has been inconsistent as hell. But I'm sure you mean elite in terms of money potential, and we surely lag there.

From what I have read Clemson and FSU might be headed to the B1G, along with Washington and I believe Oregon. It is all about $$$$ now. To be honest I am losing interest in division 1 college football altogether. That being said, if the NU administration is doing a Revenge of the Nerds type thing with regards to sports, football in particular it might be wise to leave the B1G in the long run. It was hard to get student interest in attending the games even when the Cats were winning, how is it going to be when the fans realize there is virtually no shot at the title or even a mid to higher tier bowl? Also, this stuff about the Chicago TV market is over blown. Ever see the Facebook B1G fan map? With the exception of the 10-11 most northern counties of Illinois and a few counties across the border in Wisconsin, the state is all orange. I can't believe what has transpired at NU over the last 5 years. Totally mind boggling!!!!

 

[HappyNUyear]

The ACC Grant of Rights buyout is approximately $130M so ND or any other ACC Teams aren't going anywhere yet.

 

[Jaguar 88]

The ACC Grant of Rights buyout is approximately $130M so ND or any other ACC Teams aren't going anywhere yet.

The key word is yet. The article I read mentioned that $130 price tag and it seemed like that isn't that huge of an obstacle as the article said that it still looks like it could come to fruition sooner than later. Likewise for Washington and Oregon. There will be another round of expansion of the B1G after 2024. It looks like we will be getting the cream of the crop of the old PAC 12. Even if we only get the two extra West coast schools, it still looks dire for NU football in terms of being in the B1G for much longer. The Nerds seem to have taken over and it isn't certain they care about football at this point. Maybe NU can get into Conference USA, etc if that is the case. Our only hope is that the administration does want to grow the brand after all and that they will get an innovative coach that can generate genuine interest in the program with both recruits and fans alike.

 

[StreamCat]

This is no-nothing stupidity at its finest.

Anyone else see the irony?

 

[zeek55]

This is no-nothing stupidity at its finest.

Northwestern's membership in the Big Ten is in no danger, period.

Literally, the only way NU loses its footing is if the richest 30-50 programs decide to do their own NFL...which, honestly...will probably happen in my lifetime. And that will hit NU just like it will hit Purdue, Sparty, Iowa, and plenty of others - and the programs will survive just fine; just not get a bite of billion-dollar tv deals anymore...and that might not be such a bad thing either.

But the whole "Northwestern is smaller and the other schools don't want them in anymore" is the dumbest argument I've ever heard and makes me equally laugh and roll my eyes any time it comes up.

Yeah, Northwestern is in the same boat as Purdue, Indiana, Minnesota, Illinois, Rutgers, Maryland, etc.

Half the schools in the Big Ten would get left behind if the "biggest schools" left to go form a mini-NFL with the SEC schools.

But most likely they won't, so we'll be fine. Just a matter of getting past this stuff and getting the stadium rebuild done and some coaching stability (and wins) back here.

 

[Sheffielder]

Anyone else see the irony?

I'll be waiting on my front porch to be tarred and feathered when Northwestern is kicked out of the Big Ten. Until then...

 

[CoralSpringsCat]

I'll be waiting on my front porch to be tarred and feathered when Northwestern is kicked out of the Big Ten. Until then...

Kicked out? Unlikely. Not invited to the future super conferences? Highly likely.

 

[zeek55]

Kicked out? Unlikely. Not invited to the future super conferences? Highly likely.

To be fair the only private schools guaranteed of being invited to that club are Notre Dame and USC.

Maybe Miami makes it as well but they're not guaranteed anything.

That's about it. We're fine as long as the Big Ten and SEC stay on separate/parallel lanes and keep getting bigger. If the Alabamas and Ohio States of the world decide they want a mini-NFL, only about 20-24 schools make that cut.

We'll be fine either way. If we have to go to a lower TV revenue future, we'll still likely be with Minnesota, Illinois, Purdue, Indiana, Rutgers, Maryland and other similar schools.

Maybe Vanderbilt, Duke, Pitt and some others join. Either way, there'll still be NU athletics to support.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

To be fair the only private schools guaranteed of being invited to that club are Notre Dame and USC.

Maybe Miami makes it as well but they're not guaranteed anything.

That's about it. We're fine as long as the Big Ten and SEC stay on separate/parallel lanes and keep getting bigger. If the Alabamas and Ohio States of the world decide they want a mini-NFL, only about 20-24 schools make that cut.

We'll be fine either way. If we have to go to a lower TV revenue future, we'll still likely be with Minnesota, Illinois, Purdue, Indiana, Rutgers, Maryland and other similar schools.

Maybe Vanderbilt, Duke, Pitt and some others join. Either way, there'll still be NU athletics to support.

The big boys need some little sisters of the poor teams to beat up regularly in order to stay a big boy. As long as we don’t suck too bad and can ocassionally spring an upset or two, NU serves as purpose. Get embarrassingly bad ( which we may be on our way to) and conference forced to boot you for credibility purposes.

 

[PURPLE Book Cat]

The ACC Grant of Rights buyout is approximately $130M so ND or any other ACC Teams aren't going anywhere yet.

Earlier discussions involving FSU included a settlement the $60-$80 MM range, plus a negotiated annual fee

 

[corbi296]

The big boys need some little sisters of the poor teams to beat up regularly in order to stay a big boy. As long as we don’t suck too bad and can ocassionally spring an upset or two, NU serves as purpose. Get embarrassingly bad ( which we may be on our way to) and conference forced to boot you for credibility purposes.

This program could be crippled badly for the next five years or so at minimum. The 2023 season May actually be as good as it gets for a while.

 

[zeek55]

The big boys need some little sisters of the poor teams to beat up regularly in order to stay a big boy. As long as we don’t suck too bad and can ocassionally spring an upset or two, NU serves as purpose. Get embarrassingly bad ( which we may be on our way to) and conference forced to boot you for credibility purposes.

They do, but I doubt that we ever get kicked out for that reason, and the main reason again is those other smaller schools wouldn't want a precedent like that to be set.

For Ohio State/Michigan, is 1/18th or 1/20th of our share of money really worth that hassle?

In a conference as big as the Big Ten is getting, there is strength in numbers that supports us. Anything negative towards us can be applied to Purdue, Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota, Rutgers, Maryland, etc.

 

[Fighter of the Nightman]

They do, but I doubt that we ever get kicked out for that reason, and the main reason again is those other smaller schools wouldn't want a precedent like that to be set.

For Ohio State/Michigan, is 1/18th or 1/20th of our share of money really worth that hassle?

In a conference as big as the Big Ten is getting, there is strength in numbers that supports us. Anything negative towards us can be applied to Purdue, Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota, Rutgers, Maryland, etc.

Not sure why you continue to list those schools over and over but not schools with revenues in the same general neighborhood to some of them like Iowa, MSU, Wisconsin, Nebraska, etc.

Ohio State: $252 million
…
Michigan State: $173 million
Indiana: $167 million
Iowa: $151 million
Wisconsin: $150 million
Illinois: $146 million
Nebraska: $143 million
Minnesota: $135 million

 

[FrancisSearle75]

This program could be crippled badly for the next five years or so at minimum. The 2023 season May actually be as good as it gets for a while.

I’m not so sure. People have short memories these days. While NU fans will always remember this unpleasant time, everyone else will have forgotten as other news supplants this stuff in their brains. It will all depend on how serious the administration is at fielding a competitive team. If they are and have the right coach in place (read $$$), NIL and the portal can work to our advantage. Then again, maybe that’s just me hoping for the best but expecting the worst.

 

[CatManTrue]

This is no-nothing stupidity at its finest.

I agree with your points aside from this one, although the superconference will happen sooner than later.

Also:

 

[CatManTrue]

The Big Ten wants to Chicago TV market. Some of the best viewed colllege games of all time (not including playoff games) have been NU games. If that is true, Vanderbilt would be kicked out of SEC, Duke out of the ACC, I just don't see any of that happening. Heck if anything, we make them look good. "What do you mean all our kids are just there for the sports...look at all the great students a (blank) university...".

I’ve said it many times before and will say it again.

Once the one or two superconferences are formed, something resembling this would be a more optimal solution for us. We could compete with true peers and still play football at a high level, with the top 1 or 2 teams making the playoffs:

1. Us
2. Stanford
3. Cal
4. Duke
5. Vanderbilt
6. Purdue
7. Wake Forest
8. Miami (FL)
9. Pittsburgh
10. Rice
11. Baylor
12. Rutgers
13. Add any other teams that are “closer” to our profile. The travel logistics would be difficult, but if we are excluded from the power conferences than this is potentially best outcome

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Not sure why you continue to list those schools over and over but not schools with revenues in the same general neighborhood to some of them like Iowa, MSU, Wisconsin, Nebraska, etc.

Ohio State: $252 million
…
Michigan State: $173 million
Indiana: $167 million
Iowa: $151 million
Wisconsin: $150 million
Illinois: $146 million
Nebraska: $143 million
Minnesota: $135 million

Those schools have more name recognition nationally. Nebraska has sucked for awhile but they did have a Natty back in the Stone Age. MSU in the playoffs, Wisky and Iowa in multiple NY6 bowls. The listed schools not so much.

 

[Vassar69]

 

[zeek55]

Not sure why you continue to list those schools over and over but not schools with revenues in the same general neighborhood to some of them like Iowa, MSU, Wisconsin, Nebraska, etc.

Ohio State: $252 million
…
Michigan State: $173 million
Indiana: $167 million
Iowa: $151 million
Wisconsin: $150 million
Illinois: $146 million
Nebraska: $143 million
Minnesota: $135 million

Because Iowa/MSU/Wisconsin/Nebraska have TV ratings value; they're more additive to the main broadcast TV contracts than the rest of the schools.

AD revenue (of which a substantial portion comes from the conference distributions) isn't really all that relevant because well everyone in a conference that gives out $60 million in distributions should be at $100+ million AD revenue.

More relevant is "butts in seats numbers"; the top half of the Big Ten is very different from the bottom half by that metrics.

And you can look at TV ratings/viewership as well which is the most important metric.

 

[Rodenthater]

So far, no team has been outright relegated from a Power Five conference in the modern era, though Temple was kicked out of the Big East in 2004.

However, we just saw that the ways conferences drop teams isn't via an ultimatum or dismissal: it's simply not extending them an invitation to the next party. Cal, Oregon State, Stanford and Washington State are all programs with long histories who may be left behind as Power Five programs.

 

[curdog]

I’ve said it many times before and will say it again.

Once the one or two superconferences are formed, something resembling this would be a more optimal solution for us. We could compete with true peers and still play football at a high level, with the top 1 or 2 teams making the playoffs:

1. Us
2. Stanford
3. Cal
4. Duke
5. Vanderbilt
6. Purdue
7. Wake Forest
8. Miami (FL)
9. Pittsburgh
10. Rice
11. Baylor
12. Rutgers
13. Add any other teams that are “closer” to our profile. The travel logistics would be difficult, but if we are excluded from the power conferences than this is potentially best outcome

This is optimal? If by optimal you mean NU making a fraction (maybe 20%) of what they are making now then sure. The TV deal for the conference you have laid out would be similar to the mountain west.

 

[CatManTrue]

This is optimal? If by optimal you mean NU making a fraction (maybe 20%) of what they are making now then sure. The TV deal for the conference you have laid out would be similar to the mountain west.

Would you rather get paid more money to be Chicago’s doormat?

Or make an appropriate amount to battle our true peers and win conference championships?

 

[SadCat]

It is inevitable that Northwestern will be excluded from the next iteration of redefined conferences for football.

When the deciding factor is TV revenue and not academics, what do we bring to the table that would warrant continued inclusion?

 

[corbi296]

It is inevitable that Northwestern will be excluded from the next iteration of redefined conferences for football.

When the deciding factor is TV revenue and not academics, what do we bring to the table that would warrant continued inclusion?

But that won’t stop nvolce NU being asked to leave the Big Ten, it will involve teams like OSU and Michigan leaving the Big Tem to form a new mega conference. That will negatively impact TV revenue for the remaining teams in the Big Ten long term, but I am not sure if it will impact the revenue in the short term.

 

[hdhntr1]

I agree the bigger threat is the Big Ten and all other P5 conferences as we know them splintering because schools like OSU, Michigan, Penn State, USC and UCLA splinter off into a new elite conference. The rest of the schools will be forced to pick up the pieces and run athletic departments with a fraction of the financial resources that schools like NU currently get from their Big Ten affiliation. It will be a really big problem.

Already going to happen in PAC 12 or whatever it is now. Only way we have any standing now is that we are in one of the conferences that will be one of the survivors, Otherwise, we would be toast.