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Northwestern/Big 10 future

This is no-nothing stupidity at its finest.

Northwestern's membership in the Big Ten is in no danger, period.

Literally, the only way NU loses its footing is if the richest 30-50 programs decide to do their own NFL...which, honestly...will probably happen in my lifetime. And that will hit NU just like it will hit Purdue, Sparty, Iowa, and plenty of others - and the programs will survive just fine; just not get a bite of billion-dollar tv deals anymore...and that might not be such a bad thing either.

But the whole "Northwestern is smaller and the other schools don't want them in anymore" is the dumbest argument I've ever heard and makes me equally laugh and roll my eyes any time it comes up.
Why do you insult know nothing stupidity like that?

As far as NUs membership in BIG not being in jeopardy, that reamins to be seen. Prior to this fiasco, I would have agreed with you but the combination of that devastating the FB program and potentially other programs as well coupled with the BIG no longer being the same players as before could put us in jeopardy
 
Already going to happen in PAC 12 or whatever it is now. Only way we have any standing now is that we are in one of the conferences that will be one of the survivors, Otherwise, we would be toast.
What is happening now is just a prelude to what will transpire. I believe eventually the top 20-30 teams will form a new super conference outside the purview of the NCAA. It will essentially be a professional minor league football conference managed by a couple of dozen universities who no longer are interested in pretending these players are student athletes.
 
The ACC Grant of Rights buyout is approximately $130M so ND or any other ACC Teams aren't going anywhere yet.
I thought ND was not actually in ACC but still mostly an independent. I think that with regard to FB they still have a deal with one of the networks so that whatever rights ACC might have would be far less for them. And all things are negotiable so they might have rights but likely the separation would not be as expensive as you suggest.
 
I agree the bigger threat is the Big Ten and all other P5 conferences as we know them splintering because schools like OSU, Michigan, Penn State, USC and UCLA splinter off into a new elite conference. The rest of the schools will be forced to pick up the pieces and run athletic departments with a fraction of the financial resources that schools like NU currently get from their Big Ten affiliation. It will be a really big problem.
The issue is that those power schools have to have someone to beat up on or they do not have the records to be power programs, Going to the super conference will likely destroy them as well
 
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But that won’t stop nvolce NU being asked to leave the Big Ten, it will involve teams like OSU and Michigan leaving the Big Tem to form a new mega conference. That will negatively impact TV revenue for the remaining teams in the Big Ten long term, but I am not sure if it will impact the revenue in the short term.
The current conference will cease to exist at some point and we will be left behind (along with some other schools) to form or join something else.
 
The current conference will cease to exist at some point and we will be left behind (along with some other schools) to form or join something else.
With them constantly raising tuition and bringing in kids with less and less affinity to sports and without the conference revenues, hard to imagine what that would be that includes NU
 
I think folks just need to calm down about this.

Right now we have a seat at the Power 2.

If someday the big dogs leave the Big Ten and SEC to form a new "college NFL" then we'll be fine with other programs like ours such as Illinois, Purdue, Minnesota, etc.

We'll be perfectly okay either way. If that happens, then we go to a more amateur model and the spending will get restrained substantially.

For the record, I don't think there'll ever be that kind of dramatic split. Ohio State has 35 sports and 1000 athletes, they need a home for those sports that isn't cross-country. Ditto Michigan and Penn State and others in the conference with huge sports programs.

They also know that if football splits, the whole model breaks because everyone else's ADs get crushed.
 
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Why do you insult know nothing stupidity like that?

As far as NUs membership in BIG not being in jeopardy, that reamins to be seen. Prior to this fiasco, I would have agreed with you but the combination of that devastating the FB program and potentially other programs as well coupled with the BIG no longer being the same players as before could put us in jeopardy
I said it and have to own it. :)

This is a moment and it will pass, including the horrendous leadership.

Northwestern isn't going anywhere...but as we've discussed here, I could see the power broker schools (Ohio State, USC, Mich) essentially forming their own NFL with others in the next 10-20 years. It feels inevitable, especially as the concept takes shape of separating football from all other sports for the purposes of common sense logistics.
 
So far, no team has been outright relegated from a Power Five conference in the modern era, though Temple was kicked out of the Big East in 2004.

However, we just saw that the ways conferences drop teams isn't via an ultimatum or dismissal: it's simply not extending them an invitation to the next party. Cal, Oregon State, Stanford and Washington State are all programs with long histories who may be left behind as Power Five programs.
There is more to the story. The Big East had several different groups fighting for control of the conference. There was the basketball-only side (Catholics), the all-sports side, and the lone football side (Temple). When Miami, Boston College, and Va. Tech left for the ACC, it created a power struggle. The basketball-only school saw the all-sports weak because they didn't have enough votes to stop any decision made by the basketball-only schools. Hence, Temple became the first casualty. Eight years later, the basketball-only side forced a split from the all-sports side. The basketball-only took the Big East name and caused the all-sports to create their league, the American Athletic Conference (AAC). This was a unique situation that college sports had never experienced before and likely not see again.

If a conference is expected to be successful, all schools must have similar interests and goals. The Big East was a haphazard conference put together like Frankenstein. It started as a basketball-only conference, but afraid of missing the money boat called football, they decided to add football schools. From that day, the conference has been fighting itself. The B1G is nothing like that, and the members seem to understand that the strength of the conference is in the unity of it. The revenue from the media deal is split evenly. That was never the case for the Big East.
 
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I think folks just need to calm down about this.

Right now we have a seat at the Power 2.

If someday the big dogs leave the Big Ten and SEC to form a new "college NFL" then we'll be fine with other programs like ours such as Illinois, Purdue, Minnesota, etc.

We'll be perfectly okay either way. If that happens, then we go to a more amateur model and the spending will get restrained substantially.

For the record, I don't think there'll ever be that kind of dramatic split. Ohio State has 35 sports and 1000 athletes, they need a home for those sports that isn't cross-country. Ditto Michigan and Penn State and others in the conference with huge sports programs.

They also know that if football splits, the whole model breaks because everyone else's ADs get crushed.
If the big dogs decide to leave and create this threat to the NFL, the NFL will treat it as a threat and crush it. Colleges and Universities are run by academic people who rely on network people to advise them. The NFL will force the networks to choose. Remember, the NFL is one voice while college has 1000s of people competing to be heard at the head table.

You are 100% correct on this.
 
Already going to happen in PAC 12 or whatever it is now. Only way we have any standing now is that we are in one of the conferences that will be one of the survivors, Otherwise, we would be toast.
What is happening now is just a prelude to what will transpire. I believe eventually the top 20-30 teams will form a new super conference outside the purview of the NCAA. It will essentially be a professional minor league football conference managed by a couple of dozen universities who no longer are interested in pretending these players are student athletes.
If the big dogs decide to leave and create this threat to the NFL, the NFL will treat it as a threat and crush it. Colleges and Universities are run by academic people who rely on network people to advise them. The NFL will force the networks to choose. Remember, the NFL is one voice while college has 1000s of people competing to be heard at the head table.

You are 100% correct on this.
the mega conference would not be a threat to the NFL, it would be an even better version of the FREE minor league player development/feeder system that college football gives them now. All the benefits of a minor league player development system like what MLB baseball teams have, without any of the expenses to run it. A mega conference of like minded, football crazed schools outside of the purview of the NCAA would be even better for the NFL than the college football system that is in place now. Presumably the football players at these mega conference schools would have to dedicate even less time at “playing school” and have more time to focus on football development. In addition, with the mega schools only playing each other, the top NFL prospects would be even more concentrated and easier to scout because they’d all be playing against each other and making each other better.

The mega conference would be the equivalent of a AAA minor league team and the rest of college football would be like Rookie or A ball minor leagues. The sad part is that any time one of the non mega conference schools find/develop a diamond in the rough, he will just end up transferring to one of the mega conference schools.

Not a good outlook for the NU’s of the world.
 
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What is happening now is just a prelude to what will transpire. I believe eventually the top 20-30 teams will form a new super conference outside the purview of the NCAA. It will essentially be a professional minor league football conference managed by a couple of dozen universities who no longer are interested in pretending these players are student athletes.

the mega conference would not be a threat to the NFL, it would be an even better version of the FREE minor league player development/feeder system that college football gives them now. All the benefits of a minor league player development system like what MLB baseball teams have, without any of the expenses to run it. A mega conference of like minded, football crazed schools outside of the purview of the NCAA would be even better for the NFL than the college football system that is in place now. Presumably the football players at these mega conference schools would have to dedicate even less time at “playing school” and have more time to focus on football development. In addition, with the mega schools only playing each other, the top NFL prospects would be even more concentrated and easier to scout because they’d all be playing against each other and making each other better.

The mega conference would be the equivalent of a AAA minor league team and the rest of college football would be like Rookie or A ball minor leagues. The sad part is that any time one of the non mega conference schools find/develop a diamond in the rough, he will just end up transferring to one of the mega conference schools.

Not a good outlook for the NU’s of the world.
Is that enough schools though at the highest level to support this whole thing as a minor league system?

It's not 1-1 in terms of 32 teams sending all the talent to the 32 NFL teams. NFL *should* want 3 "major" (Big Ten/SEC and a best of the rest Big 12) conferences to have 60 major spending teams developing and sending talent to the next level.

Talent could wane if a half of those 60 teams loses their resources and stop trying to compete at the highest level.

I mean look at our draft results the past few years; sure NFL would be fine with just players from Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, etc.; but that wouldn't be the best product like it is now.
 
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What is happening now is just a prelude to what will transpire. I believe eventually the top 20-30 teams will form a new super conference outside the purview of the NCAA. It will essentially be a professional minor league football conference managed by a couple of dozen universities who no longer are interested in pretending these players are student athletes.

the mega conference would not be a threat to the NFL, it would be an even better version of the FREE minor league player development/feeder system that college football gives them now. All the benefits of a minor league player development system like what MLB baseball teams have, without any of the expenses to run it. A mega conference of like minded, football crazed schools outside of the purview of the NCAA would be even better for the NFL than the college football system that is in place now. Presumably the football players at these mega conference schools would have to dedicate even less time at “playing school” and have more time to focus on football development. In addition, with the mega schools only playing each other, the top NFL prospects would be even more concentrated and easier to scout because they’d all be playing against each other and making each other better.

The mega conference would be the equivalent of a AAA minor league team and the rest of college football would be like Rookie or A ball minor leagues. The sad part is that any time one of the non mega conference schools find/develop a diamond in the rough, he will just end up transferring to one of the mega conference schools.

Not a good outlook for the NU’s of the world.
Not enough teams willing to be the bottom b*tch in a super conference. Do you think Penn State will accept losing seasons more often than winning? No, and neither will Florida State or Wisconsin. The point is these teams love having balance in their conference, so their ego isn't bruised. They want teams they are likely to beat often in their conference. But here's the real problem. Forget about the NCAA being the governing body to control this new league. It's the federal government that they should worry about. There is growing concern from Congress that college sports are getting out of hand and needs checks and balance. A breakaway group risks losing its protected status as universities.

To go one step further, the NFL would see this semi-pro league as a threat. These colleges are no longer restrained by college rules, and attempt to act in the same manner as a pro league puts them in the crosshairs of the NFL. Just as the NFL made life difficult for the original USFL, they will do that to the college wanna-be pro league. And you don't have to play at an elite school for the NFL to find you. That myth has been debunked.

Northwestern's place at the table is not going away anytime soon.
 
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Not enough teams willing to be the bottom b*tch in a super conference. Do you think Penn State will accept losing seasons more often than winning? No, and neither will Florida State or Wisconsin. The point is these teams love having balance in their conference, so their ego isn't bruised. They want teams they are likely to beat often in their conference. But here's the real problem. Forget about the NCAA being the governing body to control this new league. It's the federal government that they should worry about. There is growing concern from Congress that college sports are getting out of hand and needs checks and balance. A breakaway group risks losing its protected status as universities.

To go one step further, the NFL would see this semi-pro league as a threat. These colleges are no longer restrained by college rules, and attempt to act in the same manner as a pro league puts them in the crosshairs of the NFL. Just as the NFL made life difficult for the original USFL, they will do that to the college wanna-be pro league. And you don't have to play at an elite school for the NFL to find you. That myth has been debunked.

Northwestern's place at the table is not going away anytime soon.
You could be right but we’ll see. If the super conference materializes, that’s where the vast majority of the TV money will go to. The allure of the money will outweigh the fear of being the doormat.
 
Is that enough schools though at the highest level to support this whole thing as a minor league system?

It's not 1-1 in terms of 32 teams sending all the talent to the 32 NFL teams. NFL *should* want 3 "major" (Big Ten/SEC and a best of the rest Big 12) conferences to have 60 major spending teams developing and sending talent to the next level.

Talent could wane if a half of those 60 teams loses their resources and stop trying to compete at the highest level.

I mean look at our draft results the past few years; sure NFL would be fine with just players from Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, etc.; but that wouldn't be the best product like it is now.

Nothing would preclude the NFL from drafting players who play at the other schools. The reality is that good players that develop at some of these non mega conference schools will be poached by the mega conference schools. The mega conference wchools will be to the remaining schools in the Big Ten and other conferences , like what the Big Ten is to MAC schools now.
 
I thought ND was not actually in ACC but still mostly an independent. I think that with regard to FB they still have a deal with one of the networks so that whatever rights ACC might have would be far less for them. And all things are negotiable so they might have rights but likely the separation would not be as expensive as you suggest.
The agreement is for ND to have all their sports in the ACC except football and hockey, they MUST play 5 to 6 ACC Football Games per season. If they join a conference, they must join the ACC. They also have full voting power as evidenced by attempting to get Stanford admitted. They are still hog-tied by the GoR and the $120M exit fee per reports
 
Earlier discussions involving FSU included a settlement the $60-$80 MM range, plus a negotiated annual fee
Incorrect..................FSU would still be required to pay the $120M Exit Fee and all Home TV Review would go straight to the ACC or games blacked out. This is why FSU hired JP Morgan to look into financing the exit fee and TV Revenue.

FSU can try as one lawyer said, but they'll be in court for years and paying more in legal fees. FSU and the other 14 Member School Administrations are the idiots which approved these ironclad agreements and strengthened them in 2016 before Phillips was ever there to prevent schools from jumping
 
If the B1G was going to drop any school it would have been Rutgers along time ago.
 
I was just thinking it’d be nice to, uh, trade Maryland and Rutgers for Cal and Stanford.

I’ve lost track of who else has joined — are there 18 now? — so I guess Iowa and the Gophs and Nebraska would join the west.

None of it makes sense.
 
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FSU can try as one lawyer said, but they'll be in court for years and paying more in legal fees. FSU and the other 14 Member School Administrations are the idiots which approved these ironclad agreements and strengthened them in 2016 before Phillips was ever there to prevent schools from jumping
If the goal was to prevent the conference from being PAC-12ed, it would seem to be working. How does that make them idiots?
 
Being a charter member of the conference it would take NU to make the decision to leave. I do not see that happening with the revenue and investment $ that have been and will be spent.
 
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If the goal was to prevent the conference from being PAC-12ed, it would seem to be working. How does that make them idiots?
Well, FSU's Crybaby Ass President throwing a temper tantrum regarding a document(s) he signed makes him One Dumb F****** Idiot and add the other 6 Presidents which are bitching regarding a document(s) they signed too
 
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Why do you insult know nothing stupidity like that?

As far as NUs membership in BIG not being in jeopardy, that reamins to be seen. Prior to this fiasco, I would have agreed with you but the combination of that devastating the FB program and potentially other programs as well coupled with the BIG no longer being the same players as before could put us in jeopardy
It might end up with NU just doing what U of Chicago did in the mid 50's and just say screw it and leave or just reconstitute the old Western Conference minus Michigan. Seriously, people in here always have been complaining about poor attendance by the students since I joined the forum, with most folks in the stands being old fart alums(Gen X or older). Being an elite private university hurts the cause with a small enrollment and a more cosmopolitan makeup. What percentage of the undergrad student body is from Illinois?
 
It might end up with NU just doing what U of Chicago did in the mid 50's and just say screw it and leave or just reconstitute the old Western Conference minus Michigan. Seriously, people in here always have been complaining about poor attendance by the students since I joined the forum, with most folks in the stands being old fart alums(Gen X or older). Being an elite private university hurts the cause with a small enrollment and a more cosmopolitan makeup. What percentage of the undergrad student body is from Illinois?
My guess 10% for undergrad. Grad school is probably higher as for many programs they might decide to go to NU because they already live here
 
My guess 10% for undergrad. Grad school is probably higher as for many programs they might decide to go to NU because they already live here
That isn't good. I went to the University of Dayton for grad school. Probably two thirds of the undergrads were from Ohio, maybe more. A lot of New Yorkers though. Football games were fairly attended, but still not close to capacity. Not sure what to think/say once this mega conference garbage becomes reality. I used to love CFB, but it is slowly killing the traditions and the overall freshness of the game in the quest for sharing in billions.
 
That isn't good. I went to the University of Dayton for grad school. Probably two thirds of the undergrads were from Ohio, maybe more. A lot of New Yorkers though. Football games were fairly attended, but still not close to capacity. Not sure what to think/say once this mega conference garbage becomes reality. I used to love CFB, but it is slowly killing the traditions and the overall freshness of the game in the quest for sharing in billions.
Why are you surprised? And isn't Dayton a state school? Lower in state tuition has a big part in the student body makeup Like going to NIU, most of the student body is from in state, NU is private and gets people from all over the world. Highly selective undergrad and try to have a diverse student body,
 
My guess 10% for undergrad. Grad school is probably higher as for many programs they might decide to go to NU because they already live here

For undergrad 19% of students from Illinois and 13% from the other midwestern states. Check out the stats here:

 
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Why are you surprised? And isn't Dayton a state school? Lower in state tuition has a big part in the student body makeup Like going to NIU, most of the student body is from in state, NU is private and gets people from all over the world. Highly selective undergrad and try to have a diverse student body,
Dayton is a Private school. There are no tuition breaks for Ohio students unless it is a designated scholarship.
 
It might end up with NU just doing what U of Chicago did in the mid 50's and just say screw it and leave or just reconstitute the old Western Conference minus Michigan. Seriously, people in here always have been complaining about poor attendance by the students since I joined the forum, with most folks in the stands being old fart alums(Gen X or older). Being an elite private university hurts the cause with a small enrollment and a more cosmopolitan makeup. What percentage of the undergrad student body is from Illinois?
I don't think it has to go to that.

If there's ever a split off, I think the ACC is showing the path forward, a national grouping of private/academic schools that aren't trying to stay at the level of the football factories (after FSU, Clemson, UNC, Miami leave the ACC).

An ACC with BC, Syracuse, Duke, Stanford, Cal, SMU, Pitt, Wake Forest, Ga Tech etc. is a perfect competitive spot for us if the football factories leave the Big Ten and SEC to do their own thing. It gives us access to most major markets across the country while playing in a league of competitive equals.

And I'm still a huge skeptic because none of those schools want to go 6-6 every year. Losing lots of games will hurt their brands over time, so I don't see how it's a great long-term move.

Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, USC all want to win 10-12 games per year, they can't do that in a conference of just football giants. Is Michigan still Michigan after 30 years of 6-6 records?
 
I don't think it has to go to that.

If there's ever a split off, I think the ACC is showing the path forward, a national grouping of private/academic schools that aren't trying to stay at the level of the football factories (after FSU, Clemson, UNC, Miami leave the ACC).

An ACC with BC, Syracuse, Duke, Stanford, Cal, SMU, Pitt, Wake Forest, Ga Tech etc. is a perfect competitive spot for us if the football factories leave the Big Ten and SEC to do their own thing. It gives us access to most major markets across the country while playing in a league of competitive equals.

And I'm still a huge skeptic because none of those schools want to go 6-6 every year. Losing lots of games will hurt their brands over time, so I don't see how it's a great long-term move.

Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, USC all want to win 10-12 games per year, they can't do that in a conference of just football giants. Is Michigan still Michigan after 30 years of 6-6 records?
Yep, the patsies are what make the blue bloods, blue bloods. Ask Nebraska.
 
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Yep, the patsies are what make the blue bloods, blue bloods. Ask Nebraska.
Nebraska is by far the best example. Their fanbase sticking with that program is incredible given the losing there.

In most other markets that stadium would be half full by now (even accounting for their shenanigans in keeping the sellout streak losing).

And this is only year 7 of losing. They would be by far the weakest team competitively in a Super League, brought in just for their historical brand/fanbase; but what does their attendance/fan support look like after 20-25 years of 2-10 records? I highly doubt they'd be more than 75% full at that point.

It's why none of this makes sense to even think about...; Michigan/Ohio State/Penn State need to have 8-10 games on the schedule that are 90-95% likely to be wins. Only way to keep those 100k+ stadiums full and the fanbases fat and happy even though they may lose to each other or in the playoff to other football factories.

The lifeblood of those programs is the 8-10 near-guaranteed wins every year.
 
Why are you surprised? And isn't Dayton a state school? Lower in state tuition has a big part in the student body makeup Like going to NIU, most of the student body is from in state, NU is private and gets people from all over the world. Highly selective undergrad and try to have a diverse student body,
Univ of Dayton is a private Catholic University.
 
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Univ of Dayton is a private Catholic University.
Thanks for the correction. I had thought it was public. So maybe it is more like a Loyola. Don't the private catholic schools tend to be more local/regional and tend to draw more from the immediate area?
 
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If the big dogs decide to leave and create this threat to the NFL, the NFL will treat it as a threat and crush it. Colleges and Universities are run by academic people who rely on network people to advise them. The NFL will force the networks to choose. Remember, the NFL is one voice while college has 1000s of people competing to be heard at the head table.

You are 100% correct on this.
My guess is that they would do it with the NFL's blessing. With college on different days, hard to say that they would really be in any direct competition, Now if they tried to play on Sundays, Mondays then NFL might consider them a threat but otherwise...
 
For undergrad 19% of students from Illinois and 13% from the other midwestern states. Check out the stats here:

Thanks. Higher than I would have expected. But also interesting that numbers for IL and Midwest have dropped over recent years from 45% in 2010 to only about 32% in 2021
 
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That’s very plausible. the faction that wanted to get out of Fitz contract and poured gasoline on the student newspapers tabloid rumor mongering also wants to deemphasize sports, at least at the P5 level.

I don’t think Northwestern will be in the Big long term.
You’re wrong. Please let’s not make things up. There was a indeed a faction that wanted to get out of Fitz’s contract but not because they wanted to deemphasize sports. They were pissed that they were spending so much money and investing so much in facilities and a new stadium and for a coach that hired JON, was 4-20, and and did not seem to remotely justify the job security and millions he was being given for a record of unarguably mediocre results at best, and downright putrid underachievement in the immediate past.
 
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