I am not making an argument of Cubs vs White Sox. The Sox have the cost controlled, younger core right now that give them a better chance of keeping their current MLB together. What I don’t see is a clear pathway for the Sox to build on the current roster to create a World Series contender. Their Achilles heel is the starting staff. If they get lucky and develop a couple of high end starters then it could happen but I am not optimistic on Kopech. Cease I like but he is not enough. They need to hope that Hahn hit on his first round pick this year. His track record with the draft as White Sox GM has not been very good.
OT: NL will use DH for EVER :(
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I am not making an argument of Cubs vs White Sox. The Sox have the cost controlled, younger core right now that give them a better chance of keeping their current MLB together. What I don’t see is a clear pathway for the Sox to build on the current roster to create a World Series contender. Their Achilles heel is the starting staff. If they get lucky and develop a couple of high end starters then it could happen but I am not optimistic on Kopech. Cease I like but he is not enough. They need to hope that Hahn hit on his first round pick this year. His track record with the draft as White Sox GM has not been very good.
I mean... they're 22-14 this year so they're doing something right. They might not have the high-level pitching to survive a short series right now, but could probably get through with Giolito, Keuchel, and Rodon if the bats get/got hot at the right time. They should be a "tough out" because of their offensive strength for at least 3-4 years.
I think it's aggressive to put Giolito definitely in the Top 10, but he's right around that 8-15 range, particularly when you take a forward-looking lens.
Otherwise, you're just being a hater. The Sox are consistently in the 8-15 range for farm systems while the Cubbies are consistently ranked in the bottom 10, so your trade chips bit is more silliness. Even then, they don't need to trade for starting pitching help. Development of young arms has been pretty consistent and looks good and Jerry already showed with Zack Wheeler that he's willing to make a serious bid on the RIGHT FA arm to improve the team.
The White Sox are a consistent RF away from having every position covered with controllable talent that is either ascending or near-peak. I get that it bums you out, but you should stop just making stuff up.
The White Sox are simply betting on one of Giolito, Cease, or Kopech becoming a #1. It's more efficient to develop a #1 than it is to buy a #1, but that's a possibility if other elements develop. Their pitching is young, but it has massive potential and may only need to be lightly supplemented in free agency.
Sure they are doing something right. That was not my point. My point is the current roster construction will make it challenging for them to have post season success when the importance of quality starting pitching is magnified. I don’t see a starting pitching staff that can perform at a high level in the playoffs and I also don’t see a clear path to them acquiring that high end starting pitching going forward.
Let’s stipulate on Giolito. What about the rest of the staff? You aren’t going to succeed in the playoffs with one good starter. I like Rodon but question his long term health. The rest of the staff is a very big question mark at best. Again, my only point is this current roster construction does not portend post season success because the starting staff is not up to par and I don’t see a clear path to get it there. You can quibble all you want about minor league prospect ratings between the Cubs and Sox. Again that was not my point so I don’t see why you are bringing it up. My point was that Due to Hahn’s shaky draft track record, the Sox don’t have the high end quality and depth in their minor league system to acquire multiple high end starters to pair with Giolito for a post season run. So if you can’t trade for them and Reinsdorf won’t shell out the bucks to sign high end FA starters, where is the high end starting pitching going to come from to make this roster competitive in the post season?
I reject your strawman premise. The Sox aren't looking to acquire multiple high end starters to pair with Giolito. They are looking to develop them from high level prospects...which is what consistently good teams do. The White Sox are obviously using Keuchel as a bridge (and a very effective one thus far) to when Kopech and Cease are 1/2/3 level pitchers. Dunning was a #1 pick as well and has developed nicely so far with strong success at every level through the minors. Their approach is a gamble, but everything is a gamble with starting pitching and theirs is a well-informed one. Past that, you don't read too well. Reinsdorf already has shown that he's willing to shell out big bucks for the right FA starter, so that's another possibility if the Sox find they need to acquire a starting pitcher. Your problem is that you think it's still 2017. Teams project forward, not backwards, and the White Sox project forward very well, especially if Kopech develops as expected.
Right, I was referring more to the short-term while those guys develop rather than in the next 3-4 years.
The one thing we agree on is that this strategy you outlined is a gamble. One that I seriously doubt will work out. As far as Reinsdorf already signing a big money FA starter, you must know something I don’t. Please don’t tell me you are talking about Kuechel because if you think he is either a big money FA signing or a top end starter, then we might as well end the conversation right now.
Keuchel has been very good this year. I don’t think he has had a bad outing. Reinsdorf will shell out the money for another SP if he has too. I don’t think you are paying attention to keuchel’s season or Hahn’s approach to gambling on extending young players at well below market ( if they pan out). Cost control equals flexibility in taking on salary. This isn’t 1978 anymore. Today’s game is getting SP that can go 6 strong innings and follow it up with 5 guys that bring it at 96+.
I've seen your projection skills in baseball, so forgive me if I don't take that to the bank.
Ah...now I see the problem is either your reading comprehension or your disengenuousness. Most informed baseball folks are aware that the White Sox offered more money than anyone for Zack Wheeler, but he was determined to stay in the NE for his wife. The willingness and the financial flexibility to sign free agent pitching is there.
Meanwhile, the Keuchel thing is working out pretty well. He's no Shane Bieber, but he's good enough to handle the weaker playoff team lineups...like the Cubs. (8IP/6 H/1 R)
Totally. This year is gravy, but I don't think the Sox are thinking of those guys as 3-4 years down the road pieces. I think they expect Kopech or Cease to be a strong #3 next year. If Dunning can be a solid #5, then they are in really good shape. If Kopech or Cease can't develop into a strong #3 next year, they'll have to make a move.
He has had a nice year but He is no longer a top end starter nor is he a big money free agent signing of the caliber I was talking about. I am talking about signing a number 1 or 2 caliber starter in his prime who has proven he can win a big playoff game. A Jon Lester in his prime type signing. Reinsdorf has proven over and over again he won’t shell out the money to sign that kind of pitcher. At this stage of his career Keuchel is a number 4 or maybe a number 3 starter on a top end team.
I've seen your projection skills in baseball, so forgive me if I don't take that to the bank.
Ah...now I see the problem is either your reading comprehension or your disengenuousness. Most informed baseball folks are aware that the White Sox offered more money than anyone for Zack Wheeler, but he was determined to stay in the NE for his wife. The willingness and the financial flexibility to sign free agent pitching is there.
Meanwhile, the Keuchel thing is working out pretty well. He's no Shane Bieber, but he's good enough to handle the weaker playoff team lineups...like the Cubs. (8IP/6 H/1 R)
LOL isn’t that the same thing Sox fans were saying to themselves about signing Machado? You guys got lucky and dodged a bullet on that one. You keep waiting for those pitching prospects to develop and hopefully not get injured because good old Jerry won’t be signing any top end free agent pitching anytime soon.
So is your point Jerry won’t sign top end Starting Pitchers? He certainly opened up the wallet to sign Abreu and Luis Robert. Outbid all of MLB. Would he shell our $126 for a Darvish? Probably not, but that would be the prudent thing to do in most cases. Theo’s completely hamstrung the Cubs with bad contracts to Yu, Chatwood, JayHey, Kimbral and Morrow. The lack of albatross contracts is exactly why he will be able to do something.
In a city that has the 3 stooges as GM’s the Sox are lucky to have Hahn. His trades overall have been outstanding, his free agents generally pan out. You get on his draft picks, and to me the jury is still out. I know you realize over half the first round picks never develop, and unless you pick in the top 10, it can be a crap shoot. You don’t like Madrigal, I think he will be a good major leaguer. I believe Andrew Vaughn is the real deal too. Sox drafted a pitcher in every round of last years draft. Two already are in their top 10 prospects. We’ll see.
Yes that’s exactly my point. it’s not my speculation. It has been Jerry’s long-standing philosophy that signing pitchers to big long term contracts is a bad investment. He is probably right from purely a business perspective but it certainly is more challenging to build a World Series contender in modern day baseball employing that philosophy.
As far as your question on Darvish is concerned, is this a serious question? Darvish for 6 years at 126mm is a bargain compared to what it would take to sign a pitcher of his caliber today. Please sign me up for two more of those contracts if it gets me two more pitchers like Darvish. It’s certainly looking like a smart signing especially when you consider Arrieta signed for three years at $75mm and has pitched like crap since he left the Cubs.
Yes, it is a serious question on Darvish. I expect more than 6 wins a year for my $22M. Let’s be honest here, Darvish has been exceptional this year and horrible his first two seasons. I don’t know how that can even be questioned unless you think 1-3 with a 4.95 ERA and 6-8 with 3.98 ERA along with leading the league in homers allowed is what the value of $22m gives you each year. That’s $6.2M per win. Everyone in baseball except the Phillies could see Jake was close to washed up when he left. Avoiding Jake doesn’t make signing Yu a good move. I am trying to remember the last free agent signing Theo made that worked out. Johnny Lester?
Come on. let’s get real. Yu was hurt and as a result all his mechanics were screwed up his first year. He has been a top ten pitcher in baseball since the second half of last season and shows no sign of slowing down. His velocity and stuff are top notch. He would be the best starter on the Sox by a country mile and they would kill to have him at that salary. That’s exactly the type of pitcher they are lacking.
You seem to resent, perhaps be jealous of, the resources Theo has at his disposal. I don’t blame you. The reality is that Theo’s “bad contract” criticism is a myth. Outside of the recent Kimbrel contract and the Chapman contract, where are these bad contracts that he has handed out? Those two contracts are not the Cubs problem. A valid criticism of Theo is that since Rizzo and Hendricks, he hasn’t been able to lock up his young stars to attractive long term deals. He has certainly tried but none of those guys have gone for it. That presents a challenge for next year but in the grand scheme of things having too many good players who deserve big contract extensions is a good problem to have. It’s a function of all the MLB talent he has drafted and signed in the IFA market. Hahn and the White Sox wish they had that problem. I got more bad news for you. There is more of that type of talent on the way and no end in sight to the growing financial resources that will be at the Cubs disposal when the full impact of the new TV contract revenues are felt. Like it or not, the White Sox will always play second fiddle to the Cubs in this town.
Dallas has been solid. Dunning looks promising. Cease, Kopech are very likely future pieces. I think the Sox have quite a few pieces in the system.
They need another quality OF and young catcher of quality.
But I would put my house against willys shack on the cubs record vs sox record from 2021 through 2022 or 2023 - his choice.
Seems like Hahn has more 1st rounders in the MLB in the last several years than anyone else. One was the AL batting champ last year. So...
I put that in the same circular file as your Nico Hoerner All-Star projections.
Where from bad free agent signings like Craig Kimbrel or from that "awesome" bottom 8 farm system they have?
I put that in the same circular file as your Nico Hoerner All-Star projections.
Where from bad free agent signings like Craig Kimbrel or from that "awesome" bottom 8 farm system they have?
With every post of this nature that you make, you lose credibility. I never made All Star predictions for Hoerner. I said I thought he would be a better player and a much better value draft pick than Madrigal. Considering that Hoerner ended up being the first player from his class to make the majors and has impressed everybody with his play so far, I’ll stand by that prediction. As far as your references to minor league system rankings, i put that kind of talk in the same category of star rankings for football recruiting. The Cubs system has more talent than people like you realize and that will become very apparent in the next season or two when top end players like Miguel Amaya, Brailyn Marquez, Burl Caraway, Brennan Davis and Christopher Morel, to name a few, start coming up. Of course, when you are consistently drafting in the 20s as opposed to the top ten and when your success gives you a smaller budget to sign IFAs every year, it’s more challenging to keep the pipeline going. That being said, anyone that wants to argue that Rick Hahn has a better track record of drafting and signing young talent than Theo ought to have their head examined.
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You seem to think you opinion is always right and everyone else that disagrees should have their head examined. Now you digging the hole deeper by coming up for excuses for your excuses on Theo’s mistakes. Yu did not produce even a tiny bit his first two seasons. Now he gets off to a blazing start and he is somehow a bargain. The faithful were running him out of town and now he is somehow a top 10 pitcher in baseball? Better than Giolito by a country mile, that’s comical. If you had stopped with better than Giolito, I could have least said “ well that’s his opinion”. Now it is clear it is bias that forces out that exuberance.
Look, I believe the Cubs are in the final stages of what has been a historical run. Theo is a smart guy that used the Cubs previous ineptitude to draft/sign the likes of KB, Javy, Eloy, Torres and Babe. His FA signings for the most part are brutal. Not shaky, but downright awful. So, color me unconvinced that the Cubs will be able to parlay this influx of TV money into future championships.
You seem surprised at the fact that I value my own opinion. That's pretty illogical. Why would I express an opinion that I don't fully believe in ? If I haven't convinced myself of something, I don't share that opinion with others.
I think there is plenty to criticize Theo for, but the stuff you guys want to criticize him for is ridiculous. He has an enviable amount of resources at his disposal and he is not afraid to tap into those resources to use them in his attempts to go for it. The only goal is to win World Series Championships, not just to be competitive or to have the mostly highly rated farm system. Sox fans wish they had an owner willing to make those kind of resources available year in and year out and a GM that has a track record of using the resources at his disposal to win World Series titles. People can legitimately criticize Theo for not locking up his young core before they hit FA, for being slow to make some changes within his organization but anyone who criticizes his ability to draft/sign young talent or for his willingness to take risks in his pursuit of another World Series title is just being a hater. His record as a GM speaks for itself.
As it relates to your opinion of Yu Darvish, I suggest you read this very informative article from the Athletic if you have a subscription. The stats are hard to argue with about his performance and his trajectory since the second half of last year.
Yu Darvish continues to get better with age and the Cubs are enjoying the show
Somehow, a week removed from his 34th birthday, Darvish is actually getting stronger.
theathletic.com
I expect you to value your own opinion. I respect that you come to the table with an argument which is laid out for your reason to come to that opinion. The other Cub fan that opines at every opportunity has never tried to support an argument with more than one sentence. I also think other people can disagree, make their case, and not be painted as somehow being less knowledge because their conclusion is different. I try to explain my reasons for my opinions as well.
I am just not in the same place as you with Darvish being a top 10 pitcher or Shwarbs being anything more than an adequate LF. I think we likely disagree on Theo’s track record in FA with the Cubs. I think Madrigal will ge a fine player. I try to give a fair evaluation of Theo ( and the player) and not cloud it by me being a Sox Supporter. Personally, I think Theo is best at building a doormat into a champion versus roster management of a team hitting its prime. Theo brought a championship and deserved credit, doesn’t mean he hasn’t pushed a lot of the wrong buttons in the last couple of years. The next phase of this we can debate Hahn, who I think has been very good since he got the job.
If you think signing Darvish was a bad thing, you don't know much about baseball. Darvish = N.L. Cy Young!!!
Well if I ever agree with any of your posts, bring your extra white jacket to the West Lot (assuming you can still find it) and tie it in the back because I’m about to be committed.
I remember that the NYY dynasties produced tons of WS trophies. What’s the count on the Cubs dynasty? Clearly must be more that the Sox.
How many at bats does Madrigal have? 25? A little early don’t you think? Hoerner’s offensive stats look much better when you look at his entire MLB stint. How is Madrigal’s defense looking at second base? Let’s not even mention that he is incapable of playing SS at the MLB level, something that Hoerner has already proven he can do at a high level.
Oh by the way, how YU doin?
Funny to see the same guy that says he wants to see Madrigal do it over a sustained period of time puffing his chest over 8 starts.
I do agree that Hoerner's mid 600's career OPS do give you a better idea of who he actually is.
Well let's see, the Cubs have played 38 games and Darvish has 8 wins. Dividing those 38 by five starters means each would get just under 7 starts. Then there are the starts by the # 6 and 7 starters and don't forget those bullpen only games. I'd say he the favorite to win the N.L. Cy Young award.Funny to see the same guy that says he wants to see Madrigal do it over a sustained period of time puffing his chest over 8 starts.
I do agree that Hoerner's mid 600's career OPS do give you a better idea of who he actually is.
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