I don't necessarily know but I guestimate based on past patterns: 22-9 (13-7) is likely needed during the regular season to comfortably get into the tournament without having to win a game in the Big Ten tournament. There may be reasonable possibilities of getting in at 21-10 (12-8), 20-11 (11-9), or 19-12 (10-10) with conference tourney wins and/or other outside help.
There is some field of thought that 20 wins may be automatic entry but I think the strength of schedule during non-conference is a weakness that needs to be overcome. The selection committee has punished some bubble teams with weak non-conference schedules. What comes to mind for me is the 2017-18 Nebraska team that finished fourth in the conference with a 22-9 (13-5) regular season record and failed to make the NCAA tournament. The main difference between this year’s Wildcat team and the 2018 Nebraska team is that the conference had a down year where it was only rated the 5th best conference while this year it is more like 3rd, so our Wildcats have little more opportunities to boost its NCAA tourney chances with in-conference victories. Being at #49 NET rating as of 1/31/23 is below 2022 Oklahoma which was the highest rated team (#40) by NET to not make the tourney in 2022 but above #77 NET Rutgers which did make the 2022 tourney, so it’s in that zone of probable but not certain right now. This is how I'm viewing it now as it relates to what the targets are:
Regular season wins - chance to get into NCAA Tourney (notes)
24 -99% (a lock, even without a B1G tourney win)
23 - 90% (very likely in, even without a B1G tourney win)
22 - 80% (likely in, even without a B1G tourney win)
21 - 70% (probably in, but with room to make even more likely with a win in the B1G tourney)
20 - 60% (possibly in, but at least 1 win in B1G tourney probably needed )
19 - 50% (probably need at least 2 wins in B1G tourney + outside help with limited upsets in other conference tourneys to make chances more favorable)
18 or less - 0% (no chance to get in without a B1G tourney championship)
I would rather be safely off the bubble before I get my hopes too high, because I don't want to get my heart broken. I would rather "clinch" an at-large bid at around 22 victories and not worry about having to get a win or make a deep run (semi-finals or better) in the B1G tournament. So right now, I'm in a holding pattern where I see the possibility of making the Big Dance but I'm decidedly cautious about projecting them in now. 19-21 is still biting my nails zone