When I speculated on the Cats' game plan for tomorrow, which I called a Goldilocks plan that called for an offense that opened up a little relative to those the Cats have followed the last five games or so while holding to a bend/ don't break defense spiced by a few attacks to try to create turnovers, it was clear that Fitz has a pretty simple goal: position the Cats so that they can win a close game over an apparently physically superior OSU team, leveraging known tendencies and the strengths the Cats bring to the table.
Unlike Fitz, Urban has a dilemma. Is it better to design a plan that optimizes the probability that OSU wins, or one that optimizes the probability that OSU blows out the Cats, since a blow out may be necessary to move the Bucks to the four team playoff.
This point is moot if the blowout strategy is the best one for also winning the game. I think it is clear it is not. A blow out strategy would weigh, on offense, to early vertical strikes. These would put the Cats behind in the game and force them out of their comfort zone, and possibly start an avalanche that would bury the Cats and result in a 40 point win. This has risks: deep passes are clearly lower percentage and can stall drives, and also give the Cats' safeties opportunities to make picks. The more reliable strategy to ensure a win would be to use crossing patterns and the run game to establish dominance followed by selective deep throws (the complement to the Cats optimal defensive strategy). On defense, the blow out strategy would call for bringing linebackers and possible safeties often and early, employing run blitzes on first down and jailbreak blitzes on passing downs. The upside would be an early burial of Thorson, with turnovers and an early seizing of the advantage. The downside of the strategy is that a cagey Cats' offense runs screens and draws, passing on running downs and running on passing downs. It gives openings for big plays. A conservative OSU defense plays zone, relies on its front 4 for pass rush, and conservatively mixes in run and pass blitzes.
I have no idea which way Urban goes. Part of me hopes that he decides to imitate Michigan and play a conservative game, since the blow out strategy could embarrass the Cats if successful; part of me hopes he goes for broke, because it gives a canny team like the Cats a chance to flip the leverage and gain control of the game.
Unlike Fitz, Urban has a dilemma. Is it better to design a plan that optimizes the probability that OSU wins, or one that optimizes the probability that OSU blows out the Cats, since a blow out may be necessary to move the Bucks to the four team playoff.
This point is moot if the blowout strategy is the best one for also winning the game. I think it is clear it is not. A blow out strategy would weigh, on offense, to early vertical strikes. These would put the Cats behind in the game and force them out of their comfort zone, and possibly start an avalanche that would bury the Cats and result in a 40 point win. This has risks: deep passes are clearly lower percentage and can stall drives, and also give the Cats' safeties opportunities to make picks. The more reliable strategy to ensure a win would be to use crossing patterns and the run game to establish dominance followed by selective deep throws (the complement to the Cats optimal defensive strategy). On defense, the blow out strategy would call for bringing linebackers and possible safeties often and early, employing run blitzes on first down and jailbreak blitzes on passing downs. The upside would be an early burial of Thorson, with turnovers and an early seizing of the advantage. The downside of the strategy is that a cagey Cats' offense runs screens and draws, passing on running downs and running on passing downs. It gives openings for big plays. A conservative OSU defense plays zone, relies on its front 4 for pass rush, and conservatively mixes in run and pass blitzes.
I have no idea which way Urban goes. Part of me hopes that he decides to imitate Michigan and play a conservative game, since the blow out strategy could embarrass the Cats if successful; part of me hopes he goes for broke, because it gives a canny team like the Cats a chance to flip the leverage and gain control of the game.
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