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What the heck, let's look at NU's 2016 schedule

Recruiting has slowed down and there's not too much going on in July, so here's WildcatReport's too-early look at Northwestern's 2016 schedule.

Breaking down Northwestern's 2016 schedule
It's funny to me when I examine my feelings about the coming season and the past season together. We have many reasons to believe that the D will be close to as good as last year and we have many reasons to believe that the O should be remarkably better yet I expect not to have as good a record. A little of that is the tougher schedule but for me, at a gut level, it was the dramatic scores of our losses that make me feel like we were not a good 10 and 2 team. I kind of defies logic.

I would be pretty happy with 8 and 4 during the season, even 8 and 5 with a bowl win.
 
It seemed like all the bad luck we'd had the past two years turned into good fortune last year. Almost like payback. Either of those 5-7 teams could have gone bowling with a little luck. 8-5 with a bowl win would be a solid season but I really have no idea what to expect and maybe that's the fun of it. During the Dark Ages, I would enter the stadium just hoping for a competitive performance. Now, the expectations are raised, but there is such parity in college football, except maybe for the top tier like Alabama, OSU, Fla. State and a a few others. Makes it fun, but also nerve wracking to watch.
 
We have many reasons to believe that the D will be close to as good as last year and we have many reasons to believe that the O should be remarkably better yet I expect not to have as good a record.

I think the offense will be better. A year of experience and maturity will help Clayton. But I think everyone is underestimating the loss of two excellent DE's. These guys made play that saved NU's bacon, and unless XWas and IO step up significantly the defense will be no where near as good.
 
During the Dark Ages, I would enter the stadium just hoping for a competitive performance.

I think that is sort of the place where I have anxiety. I now expect at least a competitive performance and in our losses we got our butts kicked as if we were no team at all.

The 5-7 seasons were truly disappointing but we were very competitive in most of the losses (as I remember). Had we gone 7-5 those seasons I think I might have felt better about them than 10-3. I just really hated losing so badly.
 
I have mixed feelings about close losses vs blowouts. The 3 consecutive close losses to Michigan were excruciatingly painful, particularly since I loathe them entirely; however, last year's blowout was really bad too.

Best to just NOT LOSE, then there is no dilemma about which is worse.
 
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I feel we overperformed last year in part because of Thorson's ability to scramble for big plays was not properly defended so I agree with 8 and 4.
 
Psychologically, having Ohio State and Michigan State on the schedule makes me immediately think this year's schedule is much harder than last year, but in reality (on paper at least) it seems to me that it is pretty much the same as far as difficulty. I don't think there are any big changes within the division, though I expect Illinois to be stronger and Wisconsin a little weaker. Outside of the division, Ohio State is on a par with Stanford, Michigan State with Michigan, Indiana a little lighter than Penn State, Duke will not be as good due to injury, WMU is considerably better than BSU and ISU is equivalent to Eastern.

Having said that, I would expect the final record to be 7-5 against a fairly equivalent schedule. I think last year was an over achievement and that the loss of the 2 defensive ends and the weakness of the passing game will propel a regression to the norm.. Out of conference, Duke and WMU will be challenges, and so there is a good chance for one loss, that is 2-1. Out of Division, OSU and MSU have to be favored, while the Cats should beat Indiana, and so 1-2 in aggregate. In Division, The Cats should be light favorites over Minnesota and Illinois, a strong favorite over Purdue, an underdog to Iowa and a toss up with Wisconsin and Nebraska, which would put them somewhere around 4-2.
 
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Psychologically, having Ohio State and Michigan State on the schedule makes me immediately think this year's schedule is much harder than last year, but in reality (on paper at least) it seems to me that it is pretty much the same as far as difficulty. I don't think there are any big changes within the division, though I expect Illinois to be stronger and Wisconsin a little weaker. Outside of the division, Ohio State is on a par with Stanford, Michigan State with Michigan, Indiana a little lighter than Penn State, Duke will not be as good due to injury, WMU is considerably better than BSU and ISU is equivalent to Eastern.

Having said that, I would expect the final record to be 7-5 against a fairly equivalent schedule. I think last year was an over achievement and that the loss of the 2 defensive ends and the weakness of the passing game will propel a regression to the norm.. Out of conference, Duke and WMU will be challenges, and so there is a good chance for one loss, that is 2-1. Out of Division, OSU and MSU have to be favored, while the Cats should beat Indiana, and so 1-2 in aggregate. In Division, The Cats should be light favorites over Minnesota and Illinois, a strong favorite over Purdue, an underdog to Iowa and a toss up with Wisconsin and Nebraska, which would put them somewhere around 4-2.

Generally agree, but I think Iowa will regress a bit and that Michigan State won't be as strong as Michigan was last year...or at least not as high-powered and capable of blowing NU out of the water.

Also agree that the loss of the DEs in going to be a challenge. Last year, the defensive line was very effective at stopping things up on the run, which allowed the LBs to be super studs.
 
I think that is sort of the place where I have anxiety. I now expect at least a competitive performance and in our losses we got our butts kicked as if we were no team at all.

The 5-7 seasons were truly disappointing but we were very competitive in most of the losses (as I remember). Had we gone 7-5 those seasons I think I might have felt better about them than 10-3. I just really hated losing so badly.

The losses last year stung, but there were some decent wins as well, and I'll certainly never feel worse about a 10-3 season than a 7-5 or 5-7 team. The 2000 Big 10 co-champion team had some horrendous losses (TCU, Nebraska in the bowl game), but I don't think people have bad feelings about that team.
 
The losses last year stung, but there were some decent wins as well, and I'll certainly never feel worse about a 10-3 season than a 7-5 or 5-7 team. The 2000 Big 10 co-champion team had some horrendous losses (TCU, Nebraska in the bowl game), but I don't think people have bad feelings about that team.

Honestly, we had lower standards back then. Which is a good thing. higher standards, I mean.
 
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