We need to get to a place very soon where everyone (including the healthy) can test and test frequently so we can selectively and quickly isolate those who have disease. About 20% of those who tested positive on the Diamond Cruise tested positive multiple times, were contagious and never developed even mild symptoms of any kind. A similar study in Japan estimated the zero symptom group in the 30% range. (This could even be much higher as you just don’t see what you’re not looking for.). There could be this massive group that already got it, recovered and didn’t even know it (and are now immune). We know all the numerator (deaths), but have really no idea what the denominators are in terms actual infections. Only more serious cases are generally being reported. Certainly very mild or asymptomatic are almost not being counted at all and we have very little idea what this is.
Right now, social distancing is our only tool and it’s a blunt instrument. We need more precise tools.
1) Immense testing for virus and antibodies (and fast isolation).
2) Better treatment. Something that can cut the ICU in half or by 75%.
3) Ultimately a vaccine starting with the elderly or vulnerable and working to everyone.
Life needs to return to quasi normal soon after we stop the infection from going parabolic. At some point, the economic and social costs of social distancing into perpetuities leads to more death (starvation, suicide, malnourishment, etc) and human suffering than than the damn virus. Assume it kills 5% of those it infects (at least those with meaningful enough symptoms to get counted/report) and it infects 50 million. That’s 2.5 MM dead. I’m pretty sure a lot more than 2.5 MM die as a result of a Great Depression (and alcoholism, suicide, starvation and other poverty related problems and problems that come with long term isolation).
Until a vaccine happens, a post lockdown period cannot ever be about perfect. All it can do is be a set of procedures (and common sense things like limiting large crowds, etc) designed to keep the days to double perpetually in the 14, 21 or 28 day time frame. It’s a somewhat manageable disease if we’re not all getting it at the same time.