DaCat said:

Fitz didn’t acknowledge the problems in the 3-9 and 1-11 seasons. He lost me with his arrogant and snippy attitude during the press conferences. I also sense he knew about some of the hazing and tried to laugh it off as good clean American fun - which it wasn’t. He was great for Northwestern, and then he wasn’t.

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CappyNU said:

I did some data analysis around this, and here's what I found:

There have been 40 coaches who have coached for 15+ years at the same school while having at least one season coached in the last 40 years (i.e. were still coaching in 1984). For these coaches, I set a beginning limit of 1973 when the first scholarship limits were put in place. Five coaches are still active in the only CFB HC job they've had - Kirk Ferentz (Iowa), Mike Gundy (Ok St.), Kyle Whittingham (Utah), Troy Calhoun (Air Force) and Dabo Swinney (Clemson). For 31 of the other 35 coaches, it was either their only head coaching job in CFB or their last one. Rich Brooks (Oregon, first job, went to NFL), Mark Richt (Georgia, first job, went to Miami after being fired), Mack Brown (Texas, UNC before and after) and Johnny Majors (Tennessee, went to Pitt after) were the four who didn't fit the criteria.

I used Sports Reference's simple rating system (SRS) to look at each coach's seasons, and highlighted their top and bottom seasons (3 for 15-19 years, 4 for 20-24 years, 5 for 25+). I also did not include the 2020 COVID season for those coaches who were active given the uniqueness of that year.

Looking at coaches who had back to back seasons that were in their bottom 3/4/5 years after they had already coached 10+ seasons:
Joe Paterno (PSU) - 2000-01 (10-13, 8-8), 2003-04 (7-16, 3-13). Somehow managed to survive both of these runs and coach for another 7 years until, well, you know.
Bobby Bowden (FSU) - 2006-07 (14-12, 7-9). These seasons were the beginning of the end, as he was fired after the 2009 season.
Tom Osborne (NEB) - 1988-91 (39-9-1, 24-3-1). A bit of a caveat needed here, as these were not bad seasons by any stretch, given that they made two Orange Bowls and won two conference titles. They were four of his worst five seasons though.
Fisher DeBerry (Air Force) - 2005-06 (8-15, 6-10). Retired following the 2006 season after 23 years.
Grant Teaff (Baylor) - 1987-88 (12-10, 5-9). Had some leeway after winning bowls in 1985-86, but this was the beginning of the end for him. He coached four more years, finishing with a bowl win in his final game before resigning to become the AD.
Terry Donahue (UCLA) - 1989-90 (8-13-1, 6-9-1). Another coach who had leeway from winning 7 bowl games in a row and being ranked as high as #1 in 1988. Coached five more seasons, including making the '93 Rose Bowl after starting the year unranked, before resigning to go into broadcasting.
Hayden Fry (Iowa) - 1992-93 (11-13, 7-9). Rebounded with Sun Bowl and Alamo Bowl wins in 1995-96, but retired after the worst season of his career in 1998.
Barry Switzer (OK) - 1983-84 (17-6-1, 11-3). Much like Tom Osborne, these were not bad seasons per se. Switzer declined a lesser bowl bid in 1983 and made it to the Orange Bowl in 1984 before winning the national championship in 1985. He resigned following the 1988 season under scandal due to players getting paid and one player attempting to sell coke to an FBI agent...
Sonny Lubick (CSU) - 2005-07 (13-23, 8-16). Lubick was fired after the 2007 season and opened a steakhouse in Fort Collins.
Fitz (NU) - 2021-22 (4-20, 2-16).

So only DeBerry and Lubick left their jobs immediately following back to back bottom seasons, though the record for both was better than Fitz's.

Also looked at 5-year averages, which showed me that 24 of the 35 coaches on this list left their jobs following a real slide in the quality of their programs compared to past performance. The only coaches who did not leave due to the declining quality of their teams were:

Tom Osborne - Retired after 25 seasons following three national championships in four years (1994, 95, 97)
George Welsh (UVA) - Retired after 19 seasons due to health issues. Took Virginia out of their 30-year-long dark ages, won 2 ACC championships, was ranked #1 in 1990 briefly, and handed FSU their first ACC loss after 29 straight wins since joining the conference. Retired as the winningest coach in ACC history before being passed by Bowden.
Don James (Washington) - Resigned just prior to the 1993 season under controversy following back-to-back-to-back Rose Bowls due to allegations of paying players and a lack of institutional control on recruiting visits.
Rich Brooks - Left Oregon following their first Rose Bowl appearance since 1957 to become the head coach of the St. Louis Rams in 1995. Lasted two years before being fired.
Rick Stockstill (MTSU) - Despite winning bowl games in 2021-22, he was fired after 18 seasons last year.
Bo Schembechler (Michigan) - Retired after the 1989 season due to health concerns following 3 Rose Bowl appearances in 4 seasons (1986, 88, 89).
Barry Switzer - See above.
Johnny Majors - Forced to resign following heart surgery after 16 seasons. Speculated that his assistant and interim head coach, Phil Fulmer, engaged in backroom shenanigans to force Majors out.
Barry Alvarez (UW) - Retired following a Capital One bowl game win in 2005 after 16 seasons to become the AD.
Frank Solich (Ohio) - Retired due to health reasons in 2021 after 16 seasons, having taken Ohio to bowl games in 10 of 11 seasons, winning their last 3.
Gary Pinkel (Mizzou) - Retired due to cancer in 2015 after 15 seasons, including back-to-back SEC division titles in 2013-14 including wins in the Cotton and Citrus bowls.

The other coaches who made this list but didn't meet any of the previous criteria: Frank Beamer (VT), Lavell Edwards (BYU), Gary Patterson (TCU), Don Nehlen (WVU), Bob Stoops (OK), Nick Saban (Bama), Phil Fulmer (Tennessee), Bill Snyder (KSU), Jeff Bower (S. Miss.), Jim Sweeney and Pat Hill (Fresno St.), Vince Dooley (UGA), Ken Niumatalolo (Navy), and Herb Deromedi (C. Michigan).

I hope you enjoyed wasting your time reading this as much as I did in researching this.

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PurpleWhiteBoy said:

One could easily argue that the necessary change was made.
Fitzgerald hired David Braun as defensive coordinator to replace the inept Jim O'Neil.

"We are thrilled to officially welcome David, Kristin, Lucas and Andrew, to our football family," Fitzgerald said. "His record on the field speaks for itself during a decorated leadership tenure with one of the most successful programs in college football. The innovative ways he thinks about defense, and his passion for creating relationships with players immediately stood out during a comprehensive search process. His enthusiasm for the game is obvious and infectious, and we already are beginning to see the impact he's having on our student-athletes and staff."

It is pretty obvious, isn't it? I mean, seriously. Logic is a stubborn thing.

If I recall correctly, Fitzgerald and the Cats had a crap season in 2019, going 3-9 with 5-star transfer Hunter Johnson handed the reins.
Fitzgerald publicly declared "That will never happen again."
Then Covid came along, we ran a "gold standard" program, finished 7-2 and kicked Auburn's ass in the Citrus Bowl.
Hankwitz retired. Fitzgerald made the biggest mistake of his career and hired Jim O'Neil to replace Hankwitz.
Seasons of 3-9 and 1-11 followed, with the defense cratering.
Fitzgerald fired O'Neil and brought in Braun.
Things improved immediately.

The hard truth is that the football program was on solid footing when Fitzgerald was (wrongfully?) terminated.

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NUCat320 said:

NU football was a joke for Fitz’s final two seasons.

NU football is almost certainly the only program where 4-20 (2-16) in year 17(!) doesn’t get the head coach fired.

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NJCat said:

At least it's not an .AOL address......

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WestCoastWildcat said:

Have to give whomever made this happen credit. Agree with the need for stabilization and in moving aside the former lead into a slot where they could do no further harm either through past actions (or inactions by dialing it in). Hopefully the group of donors/leaders working behind the scene to dampen the dumpster fire aspects of the department continue to move things forward. We have to acknowledge there are a lot of positives the kast year- winning basketball and football seasons with post-season appearances, flood of money coming in, temp lakeside football facility, new stadium, etc. Just hope the positive direction continues after the blowup last year. Thanks to those behind the scene working to push the program back on track. Not done yet cleaning up the mess but definitely some good moves have been made so far.

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AdamOnFirst said:

This is at least a credible interim stabilization move

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EagerFan said:

It absolutely is, I just couldn't find any info on him finishing one at NU.

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macarthur31 said:

I subscribe to Eamonn Brennan's substack (former college basketball beat writer for The Athletic), and he had an interview with Bart Torvik regarding the inclusion of his metrics onto the teamsheets. I wanted to share an excerpt from the interview as I appreciated the nuance that his metrics are trying to capture (bold is Eamonn Brennan, while italics is Bart Torvik)



I understand that just because these types of metrics are on the teamsheets, that it doesn't guarantee that they'll be utilized. However, I appreciate the continuous learning and innovation that folks out there are trying in service to facilitating a more equitable evaluation.

The interview closes with this exchange:



Analytics like "Wins Against Bubble" will improve, and ultimately Torvik (and a growing chorus of others) believe that there's no point to having a committee. However, I agree with Brennan (not excerpted here, but summarized from his end of newsletter reflection on the interview) - it'll really be tough to imagine that college basketball fans will accept a pure formula to determine the brackets.

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GatoLouco said:

A graduate degree is still a degree man

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NUCat320 said:

NU football was a joke for Fitz’s final two seasons.

NU football is almost certainly the only program where 4-20 (2-16) in year 17(!) doesn’t get the head coach fired.

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Eurocat said:

Dunbar left while "Walk" was still alive. The season ended, Dunbar left for Cal and six months later tragedy stuck. Had he stayed he indeed probably would have been named HC (of course, we will never know for sure).

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kaTNap said:

I really don't understand why the coach of a team that perennially struggles to attract a fanbase would respond to the press telling him that fans were concerned with the direction of the program with "hashtag Idon'tcare". It just comes across as incredibly tone-deaf and arrogant.

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First of all, for the uninitiated, could you explain the general Torvik rankings and, maybe especially, Wins Above Bubble? What are they designed to do? How are they similar or different from what the committee already uses? How should fans understand their place on the team sheets?

Re: the general ratings, they are fairly similar to Kenpom, the NET, and BPI. Like Kenpom and the NET, the core of the ratings is based on adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency: points scored and allowed per possession, adjusted for strength of opponent and the location of the game. There are additional adjustments that give recent games more weight and give very little or no weight to blowouts in mismatches.

My ratings have two more unique aspects. First, for each game I use play-by-play data to determine a team's average lead or deficit, and derive an alternate calculation of efficiency using that data, which I then average with the "pure" efficiency. This rewards what some call "game control" in football. In short, a team that gets up 15 points and maintains that lead will have a better rating than a team that played a close game and then stretched the lead to fifteen in the final minutes (even though the pure efficiency numbers will be identical).

Second, and relatedly, I disregard garbage time for purposes of calculating this "GameScript +/-" stat. This further deemphasizes relatively meaningless fluctuations in the final score, and provides some disincentive to run up the score.

Wins Above Bubble is ultimately based on wins and losses only, but it uses the underlying power rating to give more credit for wins over better teams (and more punishment for losses to worse teams). Using any power rating, you can calculate how many wins a bubble-quality team would expect to win against any given team's schedule. For example, under my system a bubble quality team would on average be expected to have won 19.1 games against Wisconsin's pre-tourney schedule last year. Since Wisconsin actually won 22 games against that schedule, they had a WAB of +2.9. If they'd won 17 games, they'd have had a WAB of -2.1.

WAB is similar in theory to ESPN's Strength of Record metric on the team sheet, but I believe it is a little better tailored for tournament selection. Also, since the NCAA will be using NET to calculate its WAB metric, I think there is a good chance that it will become the de facto resume standard for the committee and may get more attention, which would be good in my view.

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Lastly, I have a theory, one I feel was hammered home by the news Thursday: NCAA Tournament selection is better than ever. That doesn't mean it's perfect, or that there aren't flaws with the NET and certain committee emphases. But the process itself -- and especially the data being used -- is light years ahead of where it was a decade ago, especially relative to the number of annual complaints about it. What do you think?

I agree the data is better, and I get the sense that there is a real commitment from the people in charge to use the best data available. There may be disagreements about what that means, and I think that's part of why they like to have a variety of different ratings available. I will say that I'm sticking to my line that "committees aren't sports" and there are some aspects of committee decision-making in general that are not ideal and will never be ideal. We don't really need a committee at all. But I understand some of the reasons we have one, and likely will continue to have one, and I agree they are getting better over time.

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