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I'm with ya on remaining calm. I was expecting 2-3 when we started B1G play, so we were a 30 foot prayer away from that. But, yes, 1-4 reduces the margin for error. kenpom rated the first 5 games of the schedule the toughest Conf SOS.

The next five games are maybe not as tough, but I wouldn't say its a reprieve:

• Home vs. Turtles. Testudo has been meh on the road, though 2 of those losses are on the vaunted west coast road trip.
• @ Michigan. Wolverines go to Williams Arena on Thursday, so who knows if the Gophs can take some bite outta them before we get them at Crisler. Maybe they look past us because Purdue looms on the schedule, but let's be real, Dusty May is gonna want revenge. This'll be rough.
• Home vs. Hoosiers. IU is 4-2, but those wins were against Minny, Rutgers, PSU and USC. Meanwhile they got torched on the road by Nebby and Iowa. If they are true to form, then this should be a Cats win at Welsh-Ryan, as the supertalented Hoosiers continue to be an enigma under Woodson.
• @Illinois. The return date at State Farm Center. Hoo boy, Illinois will be out for blood as kenpom predicts a 21 point ass-kicking.
• Rutgers. They just grimy-ed out a game against a reeling UCLA at Jersey Mike's tonight, but they remain offensively challenged. Plus, they ain't great on the road with double digit losses @ Indiana and Ohio State

If Brooks remains a high volume shooter, then the 'Cats can't afford nights where he's putting up 20%+ of the team's shots, but his Offensive Rating is 52 (MSU), 62 (Purdue). He had a 66 against Illinois, but the 'Cats played tremendous defense in only giving up 0.88 PPP. My hope that this is the floor, and he will get more efficient and as a result, the offense will follow. What would help is that if he could get to the FT line - through 5 B1G games he's gotten to the line 15 times, and on pace for 60 over 20 games . Last year he had 82 FTA over 20 games. However, this year he's got career highs in %Poss (28.1) and %Shots (27.7). Per Torvik, he's 33/63 shots "at the rim" through 5 B1G games, and through 20 games last year he was 66/124. So he's attacking the paint - he's just not getting rewarded for it.

Also, NU is 4th best in the league with ball security, only giving it up 16.2% of the time, and that was after facing league best ballhawks PSU (forced 21.3%), 3rd best Purdue (20.0) and 5th best Iowa (19.3) and 8th best MSU (17.7). Maryland are handsy, as they are 2nd best in B1G/20.0, but the remainder of opponents aren't as keen to steal: Indiana is 14th/16.0, Rutgers is 16th/14.1, Illinois is 17th/14.0, and Michigan is last/12.3. So from that perspective, we should be under slightly less duress on offense.

Conversely, NU has forced TOs on their opponents 17.6% of the time (10th) - Michigan gives it up 19.5% (17th) and Rutgers fumbles it away 17.7% (13th), so perhaps there's some easier transition buckets to be had in those games.

So, there are some edges to work in the next five games. If we can scratch out 3-2 and get to 4-6 at the break (and of course stay healthy), then there's a fighting chance for .500.

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Now wouldn't this be something:

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All true. We should win against Maryland, that would be normal.

But also true is that we are now under immense pressure. We mess up the MD game and we are easily talking about 1-6 as winning in Ann Arbor is extremely unlikely. MI is hot and I will be providing the kiss of death by attending the game.

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EagerFan said:

I dunno, I thought Keenan did a solid job yesterday on the court. He's not a P5 starting center, but I was actually more comfortable with him out there than Hunger. He's a lot faster than Matt, a lot faster. He should have come up with several rebounds that turned into scores inside for MSU, so I don't want to sing his praises too loudly, but Matt was getting burned constantly by speed.

Ty has always been a headgame guy. When he believes, he is gold, but his confidence seems rooted on a shaky platform. I understand why Collins goes to him in the clutch, but I suspect if people checked the history they'd realize Ty doesn't handle the clutch very well. He is definitely one of our better defenders - he had two direct steals and helped create several turnovers along the way. I agree he is a step slower than last year. He also seems to pick up a few imaginary fouls each game - like that 'trip'.

I honestly can't remember the last time the Cats had something near the fastest guy on the court in conference play. We've always been slower and a step behind. It's frustrating, but I don't see it changing. So far it seems we can only hope to find guys who are fast enough. KJ seems fast enough, he just needs experience.

Along with our shooting woes, I can't help but notice that once again our free throw shooting is hurting us. Six missed points this game, although I can't recall if any of those was also the front of a 1 and 1.

Click to expand...

The last time the Cats had something near the fastest guy on the court in conference play was last season. His name was Boo Buie.

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No Chores said:

Just another strong performance Styre! I'll need to go out for more beer before the Thursday game, but that's no problem despite the large piles of snow here (we're now over 80 inches on the season and it's still coming.) The t.v. and Lazy Boy will get a workout this week. Thanks!

Click to expand...

I can't even imagine that much snow. I'd be entombed in my home.

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Joins Scott Stranski, Patrick Wright, JJ Standring and, of course, Otto Graham. Go get'em, Jack.

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I don't think you can take Nicholson (must have a big defending) or Leach (scoring) out of the starting line-up, which leaves the improvement to Ty's spot. Is there anyone whose offense+defense is better than Ty's offense+defense, where the offense must come from long-range? (because Barney and Mart are already in or near the lane). I don't think the freshman or Mullins are a net improvement yet. My view is that the loss of Boo/lack of top-rank point guard brings the team back to average this year.

prez77 said:

Reduce the 3-pointer to a 2.5-pointer.

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Move the three point arc back to 28 feet and have it go to the edge of the court?
That would force change.

Reduce the 3-pointer to a 2.5-pointer.

Styre said:

All times CENTRAL. All games available nationally unless otherwise indicated. I will add announcers as they are assigned.

First, the NU games:

Maryland @ Northwestern
Thursday, January 16
8:00 PM, BTN
PxP:
Color:

Northwestern @ Michigan
Sunday, January 19
1:00 PM, BTN
PxP:
Color:

And the rest:

Monday, January 13

Minnesota @ Maryland
5:30 PM, BTN
PxP: Jason Horowitz
Color: Bruce Weber

UCLA @ Rutgers
5:30 PM, FS1
PxP: Alex Faust
Color: Bill Raftery

Tuesday, January 14

Illinois @ Indiana
6:00 PM, Peacock (streaming only)
PxP: Noah Eagle
Color: Robbie Hummel

Ohio State @ Wisconsin
8:00 PM, Peacock (streaming only)
PxP: Paul Burmeister
Color: Stephen Bardo

Iowa @ USC
9:30 PM, FS1
PxP: Guy Haberman
Color: Casey Jacobsen

Wednesday, January 15

Penn State @ Michigan State
6:30 PM, BTN
PxP:
Color:

Purdue @ Washington
8:30 PM, BTN
PxP:
Color:

Thursday, January 16

Michigan @ Minnesota
6:00 PM, FS1
PxP:
Color:

Rutgers @ Nebraska
8:00 PM, FS1
PxP:
Color:

Friday, January 17

Indiana @ Ohio State
7:00 PM, FOX
PxP:
Color:

Iowa @ UCLA
8:00 PM, FS1
PxP:
Color:

Saturday, January 18

Purdue @ Oregon
2:00 PM, NBC
PxP:
Color:

Wisconsin @ USC
2:00 PM, BTN
PxP:
Color:

Sunday, January 19

Illinois @ Michigan State
11:00 AM, CBS
PxP:
Color:

Nebraska @ Maryland
1:00 PM, BTN
PxP:
Color:

Click to expand...

Just another strong performance Styre! I'll need to go out for more beer before the Thursday game, but that's no problem despite the large piles of snow here (we're now over 80 inches on the season and it's still coming.) The t.v. and Lazy Boy will get a workout this week. Thanks!

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