B1G Bowl Projections from Iowa's viewpoint

[Alaskawildkat]

Still stinging from their loss to Northwestern, Iowa fan website "Black Heart Gold Pants" attempts to find a way to drop the Wildcats to the Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit while elevating itself to the Holiday Bowl.

Their bowl selection guru has 4 B1G teams into the New Year's 6. Due to recency they have Nebraska going to the Outback. The Hawkeyes, also based on recency, get the Holiday. They give the Gophers Foster Farms, Music City taking Indiana based on geography, and also based on geography assign the Pinstripe to Maryland.

Of added interest is the thought process given to who the opponents may end up being. In their guru's opinion Foster Farms along with the B1G will be focusing on the match up over everything else for the game to be played in a city by the bay. Washington State or USC most likely opponents with Stanford a mere possibility. With those as the likely opponents it is opined that the B1G will want to have Minnesota to provide the best match. (What is odd though is that in the final listing they plug in Stanford which arguably defeats the match up position based on a more likely USC opponent as taken in the narrative.)

Regarding Foster Farms:

"The Foster Farms Bowl is the game that will likely feature the best competition the Big Ten will face in this lower tier of bowls, as the Pac-12 has a plethora of ranked teams. The Foster Farms Bowl will likely take the next best Pac-12 team that does not play in the Holiday Bowl, so that could mean Wazzu or USC (or, if the Pac-12 has a team in the playoff, maybe even Stanford). The Music City Bowl gets first choice out of this tier of bowls, but I think the Big Ten will step in and work to get the best possible match-up in the Foster Farms Bowl, which would be in its best interest. Maryland cannot play in the Foster Farms Bowl this season, so out of the teams still left, Minnesota should be the pick here. They’re 8-4 and, well, the rest of the possible choices aren’t."

Here is their complete list:

CFP: Ohio State, vs. Clemson

Rose Bowl: Penn State, vs. Colorado

Orange Bowl: Michigan, vs. Louisville

Cotton Bowl: Wisconsin, vs. Western Michigan

Outback Bowl: Nebraska, vs. Florida

Holiday Bowl: Iowa, vs. Washington State

Foster Farms Bowl: Minnesota, vs. Stanford

Music City Bowl: Indiana, vs. Kentucky

Pinstripe Bowl: Maryland, vs. Georgia Tech

Quick Lane Bowl: Northwestern, vs. Boston College

Heart of Dallas Bowl: Vacant/Not enough bowl-eligible B1G teams


And for the rest of their analysis:

http://www.blackheartgoldpants.com/...yes-holiday-bowl-outback-bowl-music-city-bowl

 

[Alaskawildkat]

Assuming that we do make it to Foster Farms in Santa Clara (likely due in no small part to the efforts of Dr. Jim) we may actually want to see Washington make it into the playoffs which would get two Pac-12 teams into the New Year's 6. That should push USC up to play against Iowa, leaving either Washington State or Stanford, both more desirable opponents, for us.

 

[docrugby1]

Assuming that we do make it to Foster Farms in Santa Clara (likely due in no small part to the efforts of Dr. Jim) we may actually want to see Washington make it into the playoffs which would get two Pac-12 teams into the New Year's 6. That should push USC up to play against Iowa, leaving either Washington State or Stanford, both more desirable opponents, for us.

I just watched Lunt throw for 350 against NU. How many yards do you think WASU would rack up

 

[GECat2]

I have no problem with Detroit.

 

[Catreporter]

Would love to play offensively challenge Boston College.

 

[pschatz25]

Quick Lane is probably the only bowl I can make it to this year. I've been to every bowl since Alamo II (plus Rose and Citrus) and I'm interested in keeping that streak alive. So, to speak words no one has ever spoken, I hope we're going to Detroit!

 

[Aging Booster]

I have no problem with Detroit.

What is Quick Lanes? It sounds like a chain of bowling alleys, but I doubt a bowling alley chain would have the $$$ or interest to sponsor a bowl game. I guess the sponsorship works though - now I at least have heard of the company. PS: We would go to NY - enjoy the Big Apple for a few days - dinners, shows, staying at our favorite, the Carlisle Hotel - but none of the other options appeal to us between Christmas and New years.

 

[Sheffielder]

What is Quick Lanes? It sounds like a chain of bowling alleys, but I doubt a bowling alley chain would have the $$$ or interest to sponsor a bowl game. I guess the sponsorship works though - now I at least have heard of the company.

The marketing is working!

My thoughts: Wouldn't surprise me at all for Holiday to actually run with Minnesota, due specifically to how the bowl agreements are structured. If Holiday needs to take X number of different teams across six years, then this could be the only year that Minnesota is a desirable invite. Historically, it's fair to guess that Iowa will have another eight-win season in the next few years and be a viable invite again and again.

If this is true, then Iowa goes to Nashville and none of those four parties (Iowa, Minny, Holiday or Music City) is disappointed. This also zeroes out any geographic attractiveness IU has to San Francisco or NYC (and I personally think this Iowa bumpkin is overestimating Indy's allure to Nashville, but whatever).

If we land in Quick Lane, so be it. Right now the alternatives are not significantly more convenient, prestigious or less expensive (although if any bowl rep is reading...I'm going wherever we go!) - and Quick Lane will yield the most beatable opponent, and not by a little bit.

I think a lot will be contingent on how cooperative the bowls are with each other - if Stanford goes to FF, then we'll go there - that storyline writes itself, and bowls want easy stories to tell. Pinstripe will depend on whether NU can deliver the same fan base as UMD, and/or how hard they want to push Girardi as an NU alum/honorary captain...which is an option that may not be available to the bowl three or four years from now.

 

[stpaulcat]

I have no problem with Detroit.

I have no problem with Detroit either, except for going there to see a bowl game.

 

[ricko654321]

Assuming that we do make it to Foster Farms in Santa Clara (likely due in no small part to the efforts of Dr. Jim) we may actually want to see Washington make it into the playoffs which would get two Pac-12 teams into the New Year's 6. That should push USC up to play against Iowa, leaving either Washington State or Stanford, both more desirable opponents, for us.

USC isn't going to the Holiday Bowl, they were there last year (lost to Wiscy). USC will go to Alamo. Pac 12 will prob get 2 in NY6 regardless of whether Wash makes the playoff. Either Wash wins and goes to playoff and Colorado loses to fall to Rose, or Colo wins to get into Rose, and Wash slides into the at large spot in Cotton that is vacated by a 2nd B1G team going into the CFP.

So Holiday picks one of Wazzu or Stanford (prob Wazzu? but who knows), then USC to Alamo, then Foster Farms I think most likely ends up with Stanford, though possibly Wazzu. Even if only 1 Pac 12 team goes to NY6, it's still the loser in Holiday, then USC in Alamo, then either Wazzu or Stanford in Foster Farms (prob Wazzu I would think in that case, but who knows).

The Iowa guy's analysis on NU going to Quick Lane is total garbage, and I don't use that word lightly. It's theoretically possible, but that is not at all consistent with how the B1G has allocated bowl slots the last couple years. Reasonable reading of the evidence would suggest that either San Jose or New York are ~ similar likelihoods, largely depending on which of Md / IN rises into the middle tier and which falls down to Detroit. Indiana did beat Maryland in head to head, but who knows if that really matters. Until we start hearing rumors / whispers, I think it's about 45% each to NY or SF, 7% to Music City (if for some reason Minny prefers or is allocated to SF, they could get that preference), and 3% to Detroit in the scenario this guy provides, in which somehow both 3-6 conf Indiana and 3-6 conf Maryland jump ahead of 5-4 NU, who also beat Indiana comfortably.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

USC isn't going to the Holiday Bowl, they were there last year (lost to Wiscy). USC will go to Alamo. Pac 12 will prob get 2 in NY6 regardless of whether Wash makes the playoff. Either Wash wins and goes to playoff and Colorado loses to fall to Rose, or Colo wins to get into Rose, and Wash slides into the at large spot in Cotton that is vacated by a 2nd B1G team going into the CFP.

So Holiday picks one of Wazzu or Stanford (prob Wazzu? but who knows), then USC to Alamo, then Foster Farms I think most likely ends up with Stanford, though possibly Wazzu. Even if only 1 Pac 12 team goes to NY6, it's still the loser in Holiday, then USC in Alamo, then either Wazzu or Stanford in Foster Farms (prob Wazzu I would think in that case, but who knows).

The Iowa guy's analysis on NU going to Quick Lane is total garbage, and I don't use that word lightly. It's theoretically possible, but that is not at all consistent with how the B1G has allocated bowl slots the last couple years. Reasonable reading of the evidence would suggest that either San Jose or New York are ~ similar likelihoods, largely depending on which of Md / IN rises into the middle tier and which falls down to Detroit. Indiana did beat Maryland in head to head, but who knows if that really matters. Until we start hearing rumors / whispers, I think it's about 45% each to NY or SF, 7% to Music City (if for some reason Minny prefers or is allocated to SF, they could get that preference), and 3% to Detroit in the scenario this guy provides, in which somehow both 3-6 conf Indiana and 3-6 conf Maryland jump ahead of 5-4 NU, who also beat Indiana comfortably.

My head is spinning!

 

[Hungry Jack]

The last time I was in Detroit, some guy shook me down for $10 in Greek Town. He talked about just getting out of prison and needing money for food, etc. He was enormous. I gave him $10 and was glad to be done with that. Considering it is the day after Christmas and my father will be in town, I don't think I will make the Quick Lane game. Yet another date with my cumfy, schmumfy couch!

BTW, whoever gets stuck playing USC this time is probably going to regret it. They have been one of the best teams of late and will certainly be the best non-NY6 team out there.

 

[ricko654321]

My head is spinning!

Haha okay well TLDR -- NY or FF likely bowls, Det or Nash are unlikely (though not totally impossible). If it's FF, we prob play Stanford or maybe Wazzu. If it's NY, the range of possible opponents is wider (Miami GT VT Pitt).

 

[stpaulcat]

The last time I was in Detroit, some guy shook me down for $10 in Greek Town. He talked about just getting out of prison and needing money for food, etc. He was enormous. I gave him $10 and was glad to be done with that. Considering it is the day after Christmas and my father will be in town, I don't think I will make the Quick Lane game. Yet another date with my cumfy, schmumfy couch!

BTW, whoever gets stuck playing USC this time is probably going to regret it. They have been one of the best teams of late and will certainly be the best non-NY6 team out there.

Not going to make it either to Detroit--that's the day my dog pukes all over the house from the stuff she ate on Christmas, and I need to be there to clean up.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Haha okay well TLDR -- NY or FF likely bowls, Det or Nash are unlikely (though not totally impossible). If it's FF, we prob play Stanford or maybe Wazzu. If it's NY, the range of possible opponents is wider (Miami GT VT Pitt).

I think it will be NYC.

 

[willycat]

The last time I was in Detroit, some guy shook me down for $10 in Greek Town. He talked about just getting out of prison and needing money for food, etc. He was enormous. I gave him $10 and was glad to be done with that. Considering it is the day after Christmas and my father will be in town, I don't think I will make the Quick Lane game. Yet another date with my cumfy, schmumfy couch!

BTW, whoever gets stuck playing USC this time is probably going to regret it. They have been one of the best teams of late and will certainly be the best non-NY6 team out there.

Sorry to hear about your experience but we walked both ways to the game the last time NU played there and all went well. Even stopped in a couple of terns in Greek Town on the way back.

 

[LACatFan]

I'd rather see the Cats in a competitive game with a legit shot to win (e.g. vs Boston College in the Quick Lane), than endure another pummeling, such as in last season's Outback Bowl. IMO, NU would want no part of USC or WSU - match ups matter. I hope Phillips keeps that in mind as part of his lobbying efforts.

 

[stpaulcat]

I'd rather see the Cats in a competitive game with a legit shot to win (e.g. vs Boston College in the Quick Lane), than endure another pummeling, such as in last season's Outback Bowl. IMO, NU would want no part of USC or WSU - match ups matter. I hope Phillips keeps that in mind as part of his lobbying efforts.

I don't want us to get pummeled, but I believe we should be in a competitive game even if we lose. No more Illinois games this year. Look what we did against tOSU.