Biggest Conference Opener - Ever?

[eastbaycat99]

I am undoubtedly jinxing the Cats to a start like last year by posting this, but working under the assumption that they are legitimate contenders for the West title and can at least win 2 of their non-conference games, the game against Wisconsin to open conference play is arguably the biggest conference opener at least since WW2. (To me, if they lose two non-conference games, something did not come together in the summer and they will not compete for a title). If they lose to the Badgers, their chances of winning the division become extremely small, since they would have to finish the rest of the year two games better than the Wisconsin or hope for a three or more way tie with an edge in tie-breakers to win it. If they win, they become the likely front runner, since they would have the same edge over the Badgers, while Iowa and Nebraska would still have the Badgers, OSU and Penn State, and Minnesota would still have the Badgers. I don't think there has been a year where the outcome of the first game so clearly limited or expanded the prospects for a championship.

To me, the closest "most important" conference openers would be:

OSU in 2013 - this is more symbolic and was clearly a key game, as a win would have put the Cats in the top 10 early in the season and validated their status as a contender. As it was the late failures and loss led to an awful rest of the season. Nonetheless, had the Cats bounced back at Wisconsin the following week, the effect on their division contention would have been negligible.

MSU in 2001 - coming off of the tie for the Big Ten title the year before, the Cats needed to establish their legitimacy against a team that was considered solid. While they won, it was not in any way decisive in establishing position, and the games of real importance (OSU and PSU) were both yet to come.

Michigan in 1972 - after two second place conference finishes, the Cats had a number of key players to replace. Although Greg Boykin played a great game, they fell just short, losing 7-0. They did not return to .500 in the conference for the next 24 years.

Iowa in 1959. After defeating Oklahoma in the opener and ranked #8 nationally, the Cats hosted an Iowa team that would finish the season ranked 3rd nationally. Iowa ran away, winning 42-0.

Wisconsin will be a handful, and at this point would appear to be 10 point favorites or so in Madison. Here's hoping the offensive line gels and that there are few or no injuries during the first three games, making this one truly memorable.

 

[willycat]

I am undoubtedly jinxing the Cats to a start like last year by posting this, but working under the assumption that they are legitimate contenders for the West title and can at least win 2 of their non-conference games, the Game against Wisconsin to open conference play is arguably the biggest conference opener at least since WW2. (To me, if they lose two non-conference games, something did not come together in the summer and they will not compete for a title). If they lose to the Badgers, their chances of winning the division become extremely small, since they would have to finish the rest of the year two games better than the Wisconsin or hope for a three or more way tie at 6-3 with an edge in tie-breakers to win it. If they win, they become the likely front runner, since they would have the same edge over the Badgers, while Iowa and Nebraska would still have the Badgers, OSU and Penn State, and Minnesota would still have the Badgers. I don't think there has been a year where the outcome of the first game so clearly limited or expanded the prospects for a championship.

To me, the closest "most important" conference openers would be:

OSU in 2013 - this is more symbolic and was clearly a key game, as a win would have put the Cats in the top 10 early in the season and validated their status as a contender. As it was the late failures and loss led to an awful rest of the season. Nonetheless, had the Cats bounced back at Wisconsin the following week, the effect on their division contention would have been negligible.

MSU in 2001 - coming off of the tie for the Big Ten title the year before, the Cats needed to establish their legitimacy against a team that was considered solid. While they won, it was not in any way decisive in establishing position, and the games of real importance (OSU and PSU) were both yet to come.

Michigan in 1972 - after two second place conference finishes, the Cats had a number of key players to replace. Although Greg Boykin played a great game, they fell just short, losing 7-0. They did not return to .500 in the conference for the next 24 years.

Iowa in 1959. After defeating Oklahoma in the opener and ranked #8 nationally, the Cats hosted an Iowa team that would finish the season ranked 3rd nationally. Iowa ran away, winning 42-0.

Wisconsin will be a handful, and at this point would appear to be 10 point favorites or so in Evanston. Here's hoping the offensive line gels and that there are few or no injuries during the first three games, making this one truly memorable.

Guessing that the spread will be 3 to 6 points, one way or the other.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Guessing that the spread will be 3 to 6 points, one way or the other.

The only way it is 10 is if we collapse in OCC.

 

[Fitz51]

I'm floating the idea of a day trip to Madison for the game. Lots of driving in one day, but so what. Go, 'Cats!

 

[corbi296]

I'm floating the idea of a day trip to Madison for the game. Lots of driving in one day, but so what. Go, 'Cats!

If you are based in the Chicago area, a day trip to Madison for a game is very manageable. I can make it up to Madison in 2 hours.

 

[eastbaycat99]

The only way it is 10 is if we collapse in OCC.

Based on preseason ratings, Wisconsin is probably 5 to 7 point favorite on neutral field, with 3 points added for home field. This could change over the non-conference schedule. ESPN FPI calculates that the Cats have a 20% chance to win, which translates to an 8 to 8.5 point spread. The Cats traditionally have a Vegas spread that skews toward a strong opponent due to perceived history, which is why I suggested 10; it could well be 7 or 8, but that is really a different thread. My main point is that if the Cats win, they are favorites to win the division and if they lose, they have very little chance, and hence it is a very high stakes game.

 

[NURoseBowl]

I'm floating the idea of a day trip to Madison for the game. Lots of driving in one day, but so what. Go, 'Cats!

And if they manage to pull it off, you won't regret one minute of the drive. Having been to ~60 road games over the past 20 years, I can tell you emphatically, firsthand, how much shorter the ride home seems after a win.

 

[chicagocatfan24]

Based on preseason ratings, Wisconsin is probably 5 to 7 point favorite on neutral field, with 3 points added for home field. This could change over the non-conference schedule. ESPN FPI calculates that the Cats have a 20% chance to win, which translates to an 8 to 8.5 point spread. The Cats traditionally have a Vegas spread that skews toward a strong opponent due to perceived history, which is why I suggested 10; it could well be 7 or 8, but that is really a different thread. My main point is that if the Cats win, they are favorites to win the division and if they lose, they have very little chance, and hence it is a very high stakes game.

Am I only one who doesn't think Wisconsin is gonna be *that* good this year? I mean I'm sure they'll be solid as always, but they lost a lot of good players and their QB is just whatever to me...

 

[eastbaycat99]

Am I only one who doesn't think Wisconsin is gonna be *that* good this year? I mean I'm sure they'll be solid as always, but they lost a lot of good players and their QB is just whatever to me...

They return 17 of 22 starters; they do lose Clement and Watt, but they are tied with PSU for most returning starters.
They also arguably have the easiest crossover schedule of the top 5 teams in the division, playing Michigan, Maryland and Indiana.

 

[DaCat]

Thanks to eastbaycat for the historical perspective. Being an away game at Madison makes this a tougher game. Should be a good one.

 

[Deeringfish]

Thanks to eastbaycat for the historical perspective. Being an away game at Madison makes this a tougher game. Should be a good one.

I just hope we are at least 2 and 1 going into the game. I have no doubt that we will be prepared to travel to Madison and that Nevada will be prepared to travel to Evanston.

If we beat Wisconsin but can't handle the out of conference schedule, it just seems like an exercise in futility.

 

[hdhntr1]

I am undoubtedly jinxing the Cats to a start like last year by posting this, but working under the assumption that they are legitimate contenders for the West title and can at least win 2 of their non-conference games, the game against Wisconsin to open conference play is arguably the biggest conference opener at least since WW2. (To me, if they lose two non-conference games, something did not come together in the summer and they will not compete for a title). If they lose to the Badgers, their chances of winning the division become extremely small, since they would have to finish the rest of the year two games better than the Wisconsin or hope for a three or more way tie with an edge in tie-breakers to win it. If they win, they become the likely front runner, since they would have the same edge over the Badgers, while Iowa and Nebraska would still have the Badgers, OSU and Penn State, and Minnesota would still have the Badgers. I don't think there has been a year where the outcome of the first game so clearly limited or expanded the prospects for a championship.

To me, the closest "most important" conference openers would be:

OSU in 2013 - this is more symbolic and was clearly a key game, as a win would have put the Cats in the top 10 early in the season and validated their status as a contender. As it was the late failures and loss led to an awful rest of the season. Nonetheless, had the Cats bounced back at Wisconsin the following week, the effect on their division contention would have been negligible.

MSU in 2001 - coming off of the tie for the Big Ten title the year before, the Cats needed to establish their legitimacy against a team that was considered solid. While they won, it was not in any way decisive in establishing position, and the games of real importance (OSU and PSU) were both yet to come.

Michigan in 1972 - after two second place conference finishes, the Cats had a number of key players to replace. Although Greg Boykin played a great game, they fell just short, losing 7-0. They did not return to .500 in the conference for the next 24 years.

Iowa in 1959. After defeating Oklahoma in the opener and ranked #8 nationally, the Cats hosted an Iowa team that would finish the season ranked 3rd nationally. Iowa ran away, winning 42-0.

Wisconsin will be a handful, and at this point would appear to be 10 point favorites or so in Madison. Here's hoping the offensive line gels and that there are few or no injuries during the first three games, making this one truly memorable.

You forgot Michigan 1971. We finished in second in 1970 and it was projected to be between us and Mich for the title in 1971. We were not originally supposed to play each other that year but the Big10 decided to add an additional Big 10 game and for us it was against Mich. But the schedule had already been set so they made the game the first game in the year. 3 or 4 weeks before students were on campus. Big play was an attempted FG by Mich that one of our guys jumped up and knocked down in the end zone. Thought the ball was dead but Mich fell on it and it was score a TD. Lost the game something like 12-0 and potential for Big 10 Championship was over first week. Back then only one team went to bowl game. I was there and that one hurt. Still finished second but big letdown.

 

[eastbaycat99]

You forgot Michigan 1971. We finished in second in 1970 and it was projected to be between us and Mich for the title in 1971. We were not originally supposed to play each other that year but the Big10 decided to add an additional Big 10 game and for us it was against Mich. But the schedule had already been set so they made the game the first game in the year. 3 or 4 weeks before students were on campus. Big play was an attempted FG by Mich that one of our guys jumped up and knocked down in the end zone. Thought the ball was dead but Mich fell on it and it was score a TD. Lost the game something like 12-0 and potential for Big 10 Championship was over first week. Back then only one team went to bowl game. I was there and that one hurt. Still finished second but big letdown.

Great catch, thanks!

 

[CatsDad]

We need to come out in full force to Camp Randall. I really want this win.

 

[Deeringfish]

We need to come out in full force to Camp Randall. I really want this win.

I'm afraid I'm getting way too excited, way too early this season.

I'm hoping and thinking, I guess, that last year's slow start followed by a strong season was good medicine for leadership in the end. Some how the team came out soft or something. It almost ruined the season. The bowl win was strong and inspirational. So I feel like there was a hard lesson followed by and upbeat conclusion that should have created a good working atmosphere in the off season.

I think we could see a greatly improved team this season.

 

[CatsDad]

I think the O line is working their tails off this year. Seriously working hard. Coach Hooten has personally taken over our O line. I think the O lines hard work and dedication will show on the field. There will not be a slow start this season.

 

[CatsDad]

Great catch, thanks!

 

[NJCat]

Wow, glass going up. This think is going to be killer.

 

[CatsDad]

Wow, glass going up. This think is going to be killer.

It looks really good in person. Going to be something special. Be a nice place to hang our B1G Championship banners

 

[Deeringfish]

It looks really good in person. Going to be something special. Be a nice place to hang our B1G Championship banners

Would a national championship banner look good there?

 

[CatsDad]

Would a national championship banner look good there?

That would be amazing.

 

[eastbaycat99]

I think the O line is working their tails off this year. Seriously working hard. Coach Hooten has personally taken over our O line. I think the O lines hard work and dedication will show on the field. There will not be a slow start this season.

CatsDad,

Thanks so much for your insider's insight into the fact that the O LIne is approaching the year with real urgency. As someone who knows too little to be anything but dangerous, and having watched last year's games from a distance of 2000 miles on a flatscreen, it seemed to me that there were three big areas of work for the O Line in the offseason. The first would be that the tackles would seem to need to work on their footwork and positioning on pass blocking to consistently move the edge rusher away from the pocket. The first few games of the year this broke down far too often; the rest of the season there was still inconsistency in this aspect. I assume there are agility and footwork drills to remedy this.
The second area of work would be in interior line strength and use of leverage with strength to create more push. The line did OK against most opponents, but against the strongest (particularly Wisconsin) they were not able to create even the small crack that Jackson consistently exploits. I would think the strength coach would be able to work individually with each lineman to increase their push. The third area would seem to me to be in coordinating the combination blocks needed in short yardage situations. The Cats to my eye were not good at creating the one yard they needed on critical downs where the defense stacked the box. Too often, a supporting lineman seemed late to the point of attack. I assume this is something, unlike the first two items, that is best worked on once practices start.
Since I have no great knowledge of line play, I may be completely wrong in my observations. I would love to know if what I say makes sense, and if it does, if the work being done addresses these areas.

 

[CatsDad]

CatsDad,

Thanks so much for your insider's insight into the fact that the O LIne is approaching the year with real urgency. As someone who knows too little to be anything but dangerous, and having watched last year's games from a distance of 2000 miles on a flatscreen, it seemed to me that there were three big areas of work for the O Line in the offseason. The first would be that the tackles would seem to need to work on their footwork and positioning on pass blocking to consistently move the edge rusher away from the pocket. The first few games of the year this broke down far too often; the rest of the season there was still inconsistency in this aspect. I assume there are agility and footwork drills to remedy this.
The second area of work would be in interior line strength and use of leverage with strength to create more push. The line did OK against most opponents, but against the strongest (particularly Wisconsin) they were not able to create even the small crack that Jackson consistently exploits. I would think the strength coach would be able to work individually with each lineman to increase their push. The third area would seem to me to be in coordinating the combination blocks needed in short yardage situations. The Cats to my eye were not good at creating the one yard they needed on critical downs where the defense stacked the box. Too often, a supporting lineman seemed late to the point of attack. I assume this is something, unlike the first two items, that is best worked on once practices start.
Since I have no great knowledge of line play, I may be completely wrong in my observations. I would love to know if what I say makes sense, and if it does, if the work being done addresses these areas.

I don't know what all the line is working on, but I do know they will be the best conditioned line in the B1G. I know they are going at it hard in the weight room and conditioning. These guys know they need to get better and they are embracing the training and goals set for them.

 

[Deeringfish]

I don't know what all the line is working on, but I do know they will be the best conditioned line in the B1G. I know they are going at it hard in the weight room and conditioning. These guys know they need to get better and they are embracing the training and goals set for them.

You sound like Fitz there, Catsdad.

 

[CatsDad]

You sound like Fitz there, Catsdad.

LOL, Maybe I am getting more intelligent as I age.

 

[willycat]

CatsDad,

Thanks so much for your insider's insight into the fact that the O LIne is approaching the year with real urgency. As someone who knows too little to be anything but dangerous, and having watched last year's games from a distance of 2000 miles on a flatscreen, it seemed to me that there were three big areas of work for the O Line in the offseason. The first would be that the tackles would seem to need to work on their footwork and positioning on pass blocking to consistently move the edge rusher away from the pocket. The first few games of the year this broke down far too often; the rest of the season there was still inconsistency in this aspect. I assume there are agility and footwork drills to remedy this.
The second area of work would be in interior line strength and use of leverage with strength to create more push. The line did OK against most opponents, but against the strongest (particularly Wisconsin) they were not able to create even the small crack that Jackson consistently exploits. I would think the strength coach would be able to work individually with each lineman to increase their push. The third area would seem to me to be in coordinating the combination blocks needed in short yardage situations. The Cats to my eye were not good at creating the one yard they needed on critical downs where the defense stacked the box. Too often, a supporting lineman seemed late to the point of attack. I assume this is something, unlike the first two items, that is best worked on once practices start.
Since I have no great knowledge of line play, I may be completely wrong in my observations. I would love to know if what I say makes sense, and if it does, if the work being done addresses these areas.

I think the most interesting and maybe surprising thing in this discussion was Cats Dad announcement that Horton has "taken over the O-Line".

 

[Deeringfish]

LOL, Maybe I am getting more intelligent as I age.

I hope that is true for all of us but I shake my head in the mirror at the end of too many days to be sure it's true for me.

 

[CatsDad]

I think the most interesting and maybe surprising thing in this discussion was Cats Dad announcement that Horton has "taken over the O-Line".

Coach Hooten has personally taken over the strength and conditioning of the O line. He has been working their tails off.

 

[gocatsgo2003]

Coach Hooten has personally taken over the strength and conditioning of the O line. He has been working their tails off.

Thought he started that over the previous offseason.

 

[NU 71 72 74]

You forgot Michigan 1971. We finished in second in 1970 and it was projected to be between us and Mich for the title in 1971. We were not originally supposed to play each other that year but the Big10 decided to add an additional Big 10 game and for us it was against Mich. But the schedule had already been set so they made the game the first game in the year. 3 or 4 weeks before students were on campus. Big play was an attempted FG by Mich that one of our guys jumped up and knocked down in the end zone. Thought the ball was dead but Mich fell on it and it was score a TD. Lost the game something like 12-0 and potential for Big 10 Championship was over first week. Back then only one team went to bowl game. I was there and that one hurt. Still finished second but big letdown.

Yes, that one hurt !!

.02
And, Go Cats !!

 

[CatsDad]

Thought he started that over the previous offseason.

He may have, but this year he is having his trainers train the other positions while he focuses on the O line He is working them extremely hard.

 

[corbi296]

Am I only one who doesn't think Wisconsin is gonna be *that* good this year? I mean I'm sure they'll be solid as always, but they lost a lot of good players and their QB is just whatever to me...

I don't think Wisconsin is that good to justify a quasi top 10 ranking. They'll be tough to beat, particularly on the road, but I don't view them as an elite team. I do think their QB will be a good one.

 

[gocatsgo2003]

He may have, but this year he is having his trainers train the other positions while he focuses on the O line He is working them extremely hard.

I think that's been the case the past couple years.

 

[gocatsgo2003]

I don't think Wisconsin is that good to justify a quasi top 10 ranking. They'll be tough to beat, particularly on the road, but I don't view them as an elite team. I do think their QB will be a good one.

Hornibrook? He was a big "meh" for me last year. The wideout group isn't particularly scary either.

 

[chicagocatfan24]

Hornibrook? He was a big "meh" for me last year. The wideout group isn't particularly scary either.

Yeah Hornibrook fits my exact definition of a game manager. To each their own, but I don't ever think he'll do much more than hand off and throw passes to the flats 90% of the time

 

[Deeringfish]

Yeah Hornibrook fits my exact definition of a game manager. To each their own, but I don't ever think he'll do much more than hand off and throw passes to the flats 90% of the time

Doing anything more than that might be a big mistake against NU's secondary, IMO. Hope to be proven right many times.

 

[corbi296]

Hornibrook? He was a big "meh" for me last year. The wideout group isn't particularly scary either.

I think he showed a lot of potential for a true freshman. He is not an Andrew Luck type of physical specimen that will be a high round draft choice but he is developing into exactly the type of QB that Wisconsin thrives with. Some may call those type of QBs game managers, I like to call them winning College QBs.

 

[eastbaycat99]

Doing anything more than that might be a big mistake against NU's secondary, IMO. Hope to be proven right many times.

I think Wisconsin will win the games where they dominate line play, and have a tough time if they find themselves plying from behind. In the division, I think it is really interesting that Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota and the Cats will all probably play to a similar approach, with reliance on executing and stopping the inside run. Nebraska, interestingly, is switching to a 3-4 defense and supposedly shifting away from the read option to a more traditional drop back passer and traditional run game. I wonder how they will fare with those shifts. It really looks to me like it will be a bruising year, and a throwback to the way the conference played years ago.

 

[gocatsgo2003]

I think he showed a lot of potential for a true freshman. He is not an Andrew Luck type of physical specimen that will be a high round draft choice but he is developing into exactly the type of QB that Wisconsin thrives with. Some may call those type of QBs game managers, I like to call them winning College QBs.

Slight quibble: Hornibrook took a redshirt in 2015.

Otherwise, yeah... Wisconsin doesn't need much more than a game manager, although a 9:7 TD:INT ratio and 58.1% completion percentage in limited time don't exactly scream "game manager" either. He improved over the season after a complete clunker against Michigan and a stinker against Ohio State, but also wasn't asked to do much; the 19 passes he threw against NU were the most attempts in a game after OSU and he never broke 100 yards as Houston largely won back the job he had lost after the first three games.

Hornibrook could very well turn into a good "Wisconsin-style" QB. I just didn't see a ton last year that would lead me to think he could become an excellent QB (even in that context).

 

[Deeringfish]

I think Wisconsin will win the games where they dominate line play, and have a tough time if they find themselves plying from behind. In the division, I think it is really interesting that Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota and the Cats will all probably play to a similar approach, with reliance on executing and stopping the inside run. Nebraska, interestingly, is switching to a 3-4 defense and supposedly shifting away from the read option to a more traditional drop back passer and traditional run game. I wonder how they will fare with those shifts. It really looks to me like it will be a bruising year, and a throwback to the way the conference played years ago.

Who doesn't win the games where they dominate line play? Line play is the epicenter of the football universe.