Cats on defense Saturday: return of the bend don’t break

[eastbaycat99]

One of the things that has distinguished this edition of the good Doctor’s defense from prior years has been the willingness to press on defensive play to shut down rather than limit the opponents wide receivers and play downhill from the line backing spots. With the exception of the handful of times Ruiz got beat, and big running QBs have gotten loose, this has worked incredibly well.

Saturday’s game presents a 4 pronged challenge for the Cats’ D. OSU has playmakers at every receiving position, running backs who have the speed to go a long way, and a quarterback who is dangerous when he tucks the ball and runs. As everyone in western culture has pointed out, they are very, very good. The fourth challenge for the Cats, since they don’t have the explosive capability to match OSU in a track meet, is that they really need to essentially bleed clock and reduce the number of possessions the Bucks get. If Fields forces the ball and throws a few picks, the impact on the game if each team has 10 possessions is much greater than if each team has 14. In addition, the Cats’ defense in the red zone has been excellent. I would really expect the Cats’ safeties to give more help deep than we’ve seen this year, and the linebackers to sit back more often, in both cases, working to keep the play in front of them and play with discipline. They will still go into attack mode on occasion, but with considerably lower frequency. Once OSU gets to the red zone, they will dial it up, trying to force either a FG attempt or a turnover.

With some luck, Fields will lose patience and try to force the issue. I think the mental pressure on OSU is to not only win, but win big. If they try to attack a defense that is giving help, they raise the probability of making errors: while we haven’t really seen this version of a Cats bend don’t break, the d-backs break well on the ball and I would expect them to punish any throw into double coverage. A close score in the second half could trigger this; reducing the number of possessions in the first half raises the probability of keeping it close.

While NU has a very tall order in trying to topple OSU, I really think both coordinators will build a plan to give the Cats a chance, and I have to think that using the relative advantage the Cats have in experience to bait and outwait the Bucks will be part of the plan.

 

[Hungry Jack]

I think we can hold OSU to 450 total yards and 8 FGs.

 

[Jonny2TheP]

I think we can hold OSU to 450 total yards and 8 FGs.

I know you are saying that tongue in cheek, but I think holding OSU to FG attempts instead of TD's is one of the main keys to the game. As good as our defense has been, we are not going to stop them. As EastBayCat pointed out, we will give up yards. We just have to do the best we can to limit the really big plays and tighten up when the ball gets inside our 30 yard line, which is something we've done extremely well this year.

On the other side of the ball, there are two main keys in my mind:

1) We have to be able to run the ball at least some. I'm not saying we have to go and get over 200 yards, but we have to be able to pick up yards on the ground- maybe 100-150 for the game. This will help burn some clock and keep the OSU offense on the bench as long as possible.
2) Along the same lines of having time of possession, we have to be able to successfully convert 3rd and 4th downs. We are going to be in a lot of 3rd and 4th down situations, and converting those will be one of the biggest keys to staying in this game, and potentially pulling off the major upset.

If we can't run the ball and aren't converting our 3rd/4th downs, we can pretty much kiss any chance of winning this game goodbye, and it will very likely be a route for OSU. Obviously, we can't get into a shootout with them, so we have to execute on the key downs to extend drives and limit their offensive possessions. Easier said than done, but that's going to be about as important as anything on Saturday.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Play the way you have played all season. 6 very good games on D, 1 sub par. Respect but don’t fear. There isn’t much to lose here. No one expects a game except for the people inside the program. Those are the ones that matter. I hope Newsome barks the first series.

 

[NU Houston]

I know you are saying that tongue in cheek, but I think holding OSU to FG attempts instead of TD's is one of the main keys to the game. As good as our defense has been, we are not going to stop them. As EastBayCat pointed out, we will give up yards. We just have to do the best we can to limit the really big plays and tighten up when the ball gets inside our 30 yard line, which is something we've done extremely well this year.

On the other side of the ball, there are two main keys in my mind:

1) We have to be able to run the ball at least some. I'm not saying we have to go and get over 200 yards, but we have to be able to pick up yards on the ground- maybe 100-150 for the game. This will help burn some clock and keep the OSU offense on the bench as long as possible.
2) Along the same lines of having time of possession, we have to be able to successfully convert 3rd and 4th downs. We are going to be in a lot of 3rd and 4th down situations, and converting those will be one of the biggest keys to staying in this game, and potentially pulling off the major upset.

If we can't run the ball and aren't converting our 3rd/4th downs, we can pretty much kiss any chance of winning this game goodbye, and it will very likely be a route for OSU. Obviously, we can't get into a shootout with them, so we have to execute on the key downs to extend drives and limit their offensive possessions. Easier said than done, but that's going to be about as important as anything on Saturday.

Converting 4th downs against OSU is much more difficult than doing so against Illinois. Fitz won't roll the dice on 4th down nearly as much as he he did this past Saturday. Plus, with the game being played indoors, he'll choose to kick more FGs when in the red zone. I say attempt the FG when inside the 30, go for it when between the 30 and 40, and punt if behind the 40.

 

[Titanium999]

One of the things that has distinguished this edition of the good Doctor’s defense from prior years has been the willingness to press on defensive play to shut down rather than limit the opponents wide receivers and play downhill from the line backing spots. With the exception of the handful of times Ruiz got beat, and big running QBs have gotten loose, this has worked incredibly well.

Saturday’s game presents a 4 pronged challenge for the Cats’ D. OSU has playmakers at every receiving position, running backs who have the speed to go a long way, and a quarterback who is dangerous when he tucks the ball and runs. As everyone in western culture has pointed out, they are very, very good. The fourth challenge for the Cats, since they don’t have the explosive capability to match OSU in a track meet, is that they really need to essentially bleed clock and reduce the number of possessions the Bucks get. If Fields forces the ball and throws a few picks, the impact on the game if each team has 10 possessions is much greater than if each team has 14. In addition, the Cats’ defense in the red zone has been excellent. I would really expect the Cats’ safeties to give more help deep than we’ve seen this year, and the linebackers to sit back more often, in both cases, working to keep the play in front of them and play with discipline. They will still go into attack mode on occasion, but with considerably lower frequency. Once OSU gets to the red zone, they will dial it up, trying to force either a FG attempt or a turnover.

With some luck, Fields will lose patience and try to force the issue. I think the mental pressure on OSU is to not only win, but win big. If they try to attack a defense that is giving help, they raise the probability of making errors: while we haven’t really seen this version of a Cats bend don’t break, the d-backs break well on the ball and I would expect them to punish any throw into double coverage. A close score in the second half could trigger this; reducing the number of possessions in the first half raises the probability of keeping it close.

While NU has a very tall order in trying to topple OSU, I really think both coordinators will build a plan to give the Cats a chance, and I have to think that using the relative advantage the Cats have in experience to bait and outwait the Bucks will be part of the plan.

Don't give up the long ball,over the top play!

 

[mikero3]

Converting 4th downs against OSU is much more difficult than doing so against Illinois. Fitz won't roll the dice on 4th down nearly as much as he he did this past Saturday. Plus, with the game being played indoors, he'll choose to kick more FGs when in the red zone. I say attempt the FG when inside the 30, go for it when between the 30 and 40, and punt if behind the 40.

I think Fitz has bought into the stats. And they say you should be aggressive and go for on 4th down more often than many teams do. Because when it fails the coaches take a ton of heat.

I think Fitz will be aggressive Saturday and I think it is necessary in order to keep the ball from possibly the best offense in the country.

I just think getting to the 15 yard line, being 4th and 2 after a 14 play drive and going for what is never a sure thing field goal to possibly get 3 pts... is not how to beat OSU.

OSU have crazy athletes especially on offense.

Field goals will not win this game for us and I have seen too many of our kickers suck in big games, kick one that hit the holder in the head, one that hit the holder in the ass...so if I never see a kick Saturday I will be ok with it.

 

[Hungry Jack]

I know you are saying that tongue in cheek, but I think holding OSU to FG attempts instead of TD's is one of the main keys to the game. As good as our defense has been, we are not going to stop them. As EastBayCat pointed out, we will give up yards. We just have to do the best we can to limit the really big plays and tighten up when the ball gets inside our 30 yard line, which is something we've done extremely well this year.

On the other side of the ball, there are two main keys in my mind:

1) We have to be able to run the ball at least some. I'm not saying we have to go and get over 200 yards, but we have to be able to pick up yards on the ground- maybe 100-150 for the game. This will help burn some clock and keep the OSU offense on the bench as long as possible.
2) Along the same lines of having time of possession, we have to be able to successfully convert 3rd and 4th downs. We are going to be in a lot of 3rd and 4th down situations, and converting those will be one of the biggest keys to staying in this game, and potentially pulling off the major upset.

If we can't run the ball and aren't converting our 3rd/4th downs, we can pretty much kiss any chance of winning this game goodbye, and it will very likely be a route for OSU. Obviously, we can't get into a shootout with them, so we have to execute on the key downs to extend drives and limit their offensive possessions. Easier said than done, but that's going to be about as important as anything on Saturday.

Well, yes, I was being cheeky. Kind of. But we have to limit the damage in the red zone if we are to have a shot. And no big plays. But Fields is going to rack up some yardage, no doubt. Mobile QBs give us fits, and I think Hank will not blitz much.

 

[FanatiCat]

What I think MSU did against us which was a good gameplan was to take more shots early. They knew that after Hank makes in game adjustments it has been very hard to score on us, so you need to accrue points early. Along with our uncharacteristic turnover mistakes and WR drops, that bought just enough points to win them the game.

They will need to play bend don’t break for sure, force turnovers and force FG attempts and not TDs if they get to the red zone. If you give up 6 scoring drives but 3 are FGs that’s 30 points, which could give a fighting chance (I realize we’ve only scored 30+ in the first game).

 

[BigCatCT]

Quite thoughtful analysis by all. I think early on Coach Jake will attempt to take advantage of a defense that has been prone to giving up big plays. If Cats can strike early with an explosive play then OSU secondary might get conservative enough to allow NU to eat up more clock in H1 and turn it into a 30 minute game. In my mind our success will largely be determined by how well coach Jake and Peyton Ramsey perform Saturday. I’m also gonna go out on a limb and predict Indiana native Bryce Kirtz delivers an explosive play for the Cats.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Quite thoughtful analysis by all. I think early on Coach Jake will attempt to take advantage of a defense that has been prone to giving up big plays. If Cats can strike early with an explosive play then OSU secondary might get conservative enough to allow NU to eat up more clock in H1 and turn it into a 30 minute game. In my mind our success will largely be determined by how well coach Jake and Peyton Ramsey perform Saturday. I’m also gonna go out on a limb and predict Indiana native Bryce Kirtz delivers an explosive play for the Cats.

That’s a pretty big limb BCCT, but I like the way you think.