Nice post. However, I disagree with the relative talent on offense vs defense. IMO, Fitz has stocked the defense with better talent. Below I compare our best players recruited from 2006 to 2016 at OL vs DL and at WR vs DB. These represent complementary pairs of offensive and defensive positions that require athletes of similar size and stature. Players who made an NFL 53-man roster are in bold, while practice squad players are underlined.
Top OL recruited during this period include:
Netter, Burkett, Mulroe, Thomas, Doles, Slater, Vitabile, Ward,
Hance. Represents 5 positions - no one made a 53-man roster. Netter and Hance made practice squads.
Top DL recruited during this period include:
Bryant,
Wootton, QWilliams, Scott,
Lowry,
Arnfelt, McEvilly, Kuhar,
Lancaster, Thompson, Gaziano,
Odenigbo, Gibson, VBrowne, EBrown. Four positions - Six NFLers, five with multi-year careers already plus likely future draft choices in Gaziano and EBrown.
Same with WR: Stewart,
Ebert,
Carr, Nagel,
Lawrence, CJones, TJones, RC-Bowman, Lees, Skowronek. Three positions, three NFL players
Same with DB:
McManis,
Peters, Phillips,
Igwebiuke,
Campbell,
Mabin, Pace, VanHoose, Harris, TWilliams,
Hartage, Ruiz,
EWilson, THenry, Watkins, Newsome. Four positions - six NFL roster players including EWilson, plus one on practice squad so far, Harris had legit NFL ability but retired from football.
In summary, These positions are complimentary (WR-DB, OL-DL) and represent generally 8 players each on offense and defense. I highlight NFL roster and PS players because they represent our top blocking and playmaking talent. If my figuring is correct the offense (WR and OL) yielded 3 NFL roster players + 2 NFL practice squad players. The defense (DL and DB's) produced 12 NFL roster players + 1 NFL practice squad player. It's pretty clear to me that there has been more top, NFL-caliber talent on our DL relative to our OL, and the same is true among DB's vs WR's.
The quality of a player exiting the program represents both their incoming ability and subsequent development at NU. Star ratings aren't of much value for assessing incoming talent because of their changing standards and poor predictability of success, so I won't bother looking at star ratings here. Guys like McManis and Vitale were studs coming out of high school regardless of their ridiculous star ratings.
Most people here seem to feel that the difference in performance between our offense and defense reflects differences in coaching quality and not talent. It's my opinion that we have had better talent assigned to these positions on defense than those complementary positions on offense. This is reflected in the number of NFL players produced on offense vs defense at these positions (3 offensive vs 12 defensive NFL players) and that talent differential largely explains the underperformance of our offense at those positions over the past decade relative to their complementary positions on defense.
I believe this difference reflects Fitz's desire to have better talent of D rather than on O. Of course, differences in the quality of coaches at these offensive and defensive positions may also help to explain their relative success. The notable lack of performance and NFL caliber talent on the OL suggests this may be the case here. Hopefully, Anderson can improve our incoming talent and development down the road.
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Extra credit:
Same with Offensive Backs: Persa, TSiemian, Thorson, Colter, TGreene, Trumpy, VMark, TSutton, Vault, JJackson, WMLong, Dunsmore, Vitale, Dickerson, Green. Five NFL roster players, 2 NFL PS.
Same with Defensive LB: Davie, MWilliams, Proby, Ariguzo, Ellis, Nwabuisi, AWalker, NHall, Fisher, Gallagher, JJones, Two NFL roster players, 1 NFL PS player, plus Fisher, Gallagher.
Looking at all positions on offense and defense, the defense has produced 14 NFL roster players plus 2 PS players during this period (16 total) while the offense has only produced 8 NFL roster players plus 4 PS players (12 total).
Sorry for the long, tortuous writing. Please suggest any significant players I may have missed