I took a closer look at the success and failure of our various lineups from last year and realized a few things...
(Thanks again to the gentleman who creates the play-by-play box scores over on NUSports, they are excellent)
I calculated the ratio of "points we scored" to "points we allowed" when each player was on the court.
To my surprise, Miller Kopp was ranked highest, at .952 (meaning we scored 95.2 points for every 100 we allowed). He was followed by Buie at .925, Nance .922, Young .920, Berry .903, Beran .894, Greer .874, Audige .869, Gaines .865.
Since 5 guys play at one time, bad players will lower the ratings of good players and good players will raise the ratings of bad players.
I focused on the success of each player with every other player. How did NU perform when Gaines was out there with Kopp? Gaines with Beran? etc. The results were enlightening.
When Robbie Beran and Pete Nance played together, our performance PLUNGED to .828, a significant step down for both players. Beran was teamed with Nance for 72% of his playing time. This gave most people, including me, the distinct impression that Beran sucked. However, when Beran was paired with Ryan Young, NU performed at a 1.045 rate, a major step up for both players. Unfortunately Beran only played 27% of his time with Ryan Young. On the other side of that argument, Pete Nance was clearly better without Robbie Beran, performing at a winning 1.039 rate when teamed with anybody but Beran.
A similar situation existed with Anthony Gaines. His favorite pairing was Pete Nance, but they only performed at a .931 rate. His least favorite teammate to play alongside was Ryan Young. They performed together at a dismal .794 rate. Unfortunately, for Ryan Young, he played 62% of his minutes with Anthony Gaines. When Young played with "not Gaines," his performance rate was an excellent 1.15, strongly suggesting he is an "above average to good" starter in the Big Ten.
The other winning combo that played significant minutes was Ryan Young with Pete Nance. NU performed at a 1.07 rate when they were on the court together.
So what does this tell us? Beran and Young were (are) a winning combination. Nance and Young were (are) a winning combination. The only other 2-man NU combo that performed at a winning rate was in the backcourt - amazingly it was Ryan Greer paired with Boo Buie, who registered a 1.10 rate together. The worst backcourt combo was Greer with Audige, a horrific performance rate of .689, the lowest of all two man combos. Oddly, Greer played twice as much with Audige as he did with Buie, which suggests that the coaches did not notice.
So those are the numbers, the facts.
My conclusions are as follows... Ryan Young is our key player and must play as much as he can handle. We will be successful with either Beran or Nance at "power forward," though I prefer Nance. It might be worth trying Young, Nance and Beran together, since we didn't do that at all last season. Replacing Kopp's overall effectiveness is crucial. We will be much less successful than we should be if Nance plays the 5 with Beran at the 4. In short, they are similar players and they (irrefutably) don't work well together. It is possible that Greer and Buie should be the primary backcourt. Greer is our best passer and may simply put Buie and others in better shooting position. My guess is that Audige does not move well when he doesn't have the ball, so he and Greer are incompatible.
Hopefully Barnhizer, Simmons or Williams can fill capably in for Kopp at the 3.
End result... If Coach Collins simply plays Young and Nance together most of the game, with Nicholson and Beran off the bench and somebody fills in adequately for Kopp, we finish 6th or 7th, make the NCAA tournament again and Collins signs a nice, big contract. Thats my baseline expectation - the freshmen and sophomores will determine if we do better or worse.
So I'm optimistic...
Go Cats!
(Thanks again to the gentleman who creates the play-by-play box scores over on NUSports, they are excellent)
I calculated the ratio of "points we scored" to "points we allowed" when each player was on the court.
To my surprise, Miller Kopp was ranked highest, at .952 (meaning we scored 95.2 points for every 100 we allowed). He was followed by Buie at .925, Nance .922, Young .920, Berry .903, Beran .894, Greer .874, Audige .869, Gaines .865.
Since 5 guys play at one time, bad players will lower the ratings of good players and good players will raise the ratings of bad players.
I focused on the success of each player with every other player. How did NU perform when Gaines was out there with Kopp? Gaines with Beran? etc. The results were enlightening.
When Robbie Beran and Pete Nance played together, our performance PLUNGED to .828, a significant step down for both players. Beran was teamed with Nance for 72% of his playing time. This gave most people, including me, the distinct impression that Beran sucked. However, when Beran was paired with Ryan Young, NU performed at a 1.045 rate, a major step up for both players. Unfortunately Beran only played 27% of his time with Ryan Young. On the other side of that argument, Pete Nance was clearly better without Robbie Beran, performing at a winning 1.039 rate when teamed with anybody but Beran.
A similar situation existed with Anthony Gaines. His favorite pairing was Pete Nance, but they only performed at a .931 rate. His least favorite teammate to play alongside was Ryan Young. They performed together at a dismal .794 rate. Unfortunately, for Ryan Young, he played 62% of his minutes with Anthony Gaines. When Young played with "not Gaines," his performance rate was an excellent 1.15, strongly suggesting he is an "above average to good" starter in the Big Ten.
The other winning combo that played significant minutes was Ryan Young with Pete Nance. NU performed at a 1.07 rate when they were on the court together.
So what does this tell us? Beran and Young were (are) a winning combination. Nance and Young were (are) a winning combination. The only other 2-man NU combo that performed at a winning rate was in the backcourt - amazingly it was Ryan Greer paired with Boo Buie, who registered a 1.10 rate together. The worst backcourt combo was Greer with Audige, a horrific performance rate of .689, the lowest of all two man combos. Oddly, Greer played twice as much with Audige as he did with Buie, which suggests that the coaches did not notice.
So those are the numbers, the facts.
My conclusions are as follows... Ryan Young is our key player and must play as much as he can handle. We will be successful with either Beran or Nance at "power forward," though I prefer Nance. It might be worth trying Young, Nance and Beran together, since we didn't do that at all last season. Replacing Kopp's overall effectiveness is crucial. We will be much less successful than we should be if Nance plays the 5 with Beran at the 4. In short, they are similar players and they (irrefutably) don't work well together. It is possible that Greer and Buie should be the primary backcourt. Greer is our best passer and may simply put Buie and others in better shooting position. My guess is that Audige does not move well when he doesn't have the ball, so he and Greer are incompatible.
Hopefully Barnhizer, Simmons or Williams can fill capably in for Kopp at the 3.
End result... If Coach Collins simply plays Young and Nance together most of the game, with Nicholson and Beran off the bench and somebody fills in adequately for Kopp, we finish 6th or 7th, make the NCAA tournament again and Collins signs a nice, big contract. Thats my baseline expectation - the freshmen and sophomores will determine if we do better or worse.
So I'm optimistic...
Go Cats!