How Chris Collins gets 10 more years

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

I took a closer look at the success and failure of our various lineups from last year and realized a few things...
(Thanks again to the gentleman who creates the play-by-play box scores over on NUSports, they are excellent)
I calculated the ratio of "points we scored" to "points we allowed" when each player was on the court.

To my surprise, Miller Kopp was ranked highest, at .952 (meaning we scored 95.2 points for every 100 we allowed). He was followed by Buie at .925, Nance .922, Young .920, Berry .903, Beran .894, Greer .874, Audige .869, Gaines .865.

Since 5 guys play at one time, bad players will lower the ratings of good players and good players will raise the ratings of bad players.

I focused on the success of each player with every other player. How did NU perform when Gaines was out there with Kopp? Gaines with Beran? etc. The results were enlightening.

When Robbie Beran and Pete Nance played together, our performance PLUNGED to .828, a significant step down for both players. Beran was teamed with Nance for 72% of his playing time. This gave most people, including me, the distinct impression that Beran sucked. However, when Beran was paired with Ryan Young, NU performed at a 1.045 rate, a major step up for both players. Unfortunately Beran only played 27% of his time with Ryan Young. On the other side of that argument, Pete Nance was clearly better without Robbie Beran, performing at a winning 1.039 rate when teamed with anybody but Beran.

A similar situation existed with Anthony Gaines. His favorite pairing was Pete Nance, but they only performed at a .931 rate. His least favorite teammate to play alongside was Ryan Young. They performed together at a dismal .794 rate. Unfortunately, for Ryan Young, he played 62% of his minutes with Anthony Gaines. When Young played with "not Gaines," his performance rate was an excellent 1.15, strongly suggesting he is an "above average to good" starter in the Big Ten.

The other winning combo that played significant minutes was Ryan Young with Pete Nance. NU performed at a 1.07 rate when they were on the court together.

So what does this tell us? Beran and Young were (are) a winning combination. Nance and Young were (are) a winning combination. The only other 2-man NU combo that performed at a winning rate was in the backcourt - amazingly it was Ryan Greer paired with Boo Buie, who registered a 1.10 rate together. The worst backcourt combo was Greer with Audige, a horrific performance rate of .689, the lowest of all two man combos. Oddly, Greer played twice as much with Audige as he did with Buie, which suggests that the coaches did not notice.

So those are the numbers, the facts.

My conclusions are as follows... Ryan Young is our key player and must play as much as he can handle. We will be successful with either Beran or Nance at "power forward," though I prefer Nance. It might be worth trying Young, Nance and Beran together, since we didn't do that at all last season. Replacing Kopp's overall effectiveness is crucial. We will be much less successful than we should be if Nance plays the 5 with Beran at the 4. In short, they are similar players and they (irrefutably) don't work well together. It is possible that Greer and Buie should be the primary backcourt. Greer is our best passer and may simply put Buie and others in better shooting position. My guess is that Audige does not move well when he doesn't have the ball, so he and Greer are incompatible.

Hopefully Barnhizer, Simmons or Williams can fill capably in for Kopp at the 3.

End result... If Coach Collins simply plays Young and Nance together most of the game, with Nicholson and Beran off the bench and somebody fills in adequately for Kopp, we finish 6th or 7th, make the NCAA tournament again and Collins signs a nice, big contract. Thats my baseline expectation - the freshmen and sophomores will determine if we do better or worse.

So I'm optimistic...

Go Cats!

 

[GatoLouco]

Without looking it up, I’d risk saying Young/Nance/Beran started, with Spencer and Kopp, more than 1/2 the games in 19/20.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Without looking it up, I’d risk saying Young/Nance/Beran started, with Spencer and Kopp, more than 1/2 the games in 19/20.

Thats a good point. It does seem like those 3 (Beran, Nance and Young) played together at times 2 years ago. Without going thru all the play-by-play box scores, I can't tell you which lineups were relatively effective and which weren't. However, with AJ Turner playing 27 minutes a night, Spencer playing almost 31 and Kopp playing almost 34, that team needed backcourt help. Nance, Beran and Young all played between 21.4 and 25.5 minutes per game.

 

[CappyNU]

The Beran-Nance-Young trio started 8 games in 2020, out of necessity when Turner went down with an injury. They played at an above average rate offensively and below average rate defensively, and played an average of 7 minutes per game together in those 8 games.

As far as the two man game laid out above, I think it's hard to extrapolate Buie-Greer off of 2.6 minutes per game or Beran-Young off of 5.3 mpg. Even the Nance-Young combo only got 7.6 mpg, mostly because while it was by far the best defensive pairing we put out, it was pretty terrible when it came to scoring points. Yes, that combo was +16, but they also had 17 more offensive possessions than defensive.

What is more concerning to me is the inability of Buie and Young to play together last year, as it was the 3rd-worst offensive combo on the team. They need to figure that out this season. Buie did not have the same issues with Beran or Nance.

One positive thing is that with Gaines leaving, we no longer have to worry about the black hole of the Audige-Gaines pairing or the Gaines-Young pairing, both of which were absolutely atrocious defensively and pretty bad on offense too. Audige does need to figure out how to play well with the bench players, as his play suffered far more than any other player when not playing with the starters.

I do agree that the Nance-Beran pairing did not work well last year, nor did the Audige-Beran pairing, and will be curious to see how Collins adjusts, or if he just decides to plow ahead in the hope that they work better this year together.

 

[SDakaGordie]

I think a lot of this can come down to whether players are compensating for other players who are more one-dimensional in nature. If we can get all players on the court who believe in every other guy’s ability to handle the ball, shoot, convert at the rim, pass, defend, and rebound, we will see noticeable overall improvement. I believe that losing Kopp and Gaines helps us a lot in this regard overall, though it’s not everything we need. We also need Beran, Young and Berry to hit outside shots; we need Beran to drive and rebound more effectively; we need Audige and Buie to take better shots and pass better. And we need to see if the freshmen are less than full-dimensional players. Lots of variables and uncertainty.

 

[Sec.112]

I get concerned about full season stats because they don't tell the complete story of how NU does against B10 competition. Too often, players rack it up against Directional U.

You might want to discuss your theory about the need to replace Kopp's effectiveness with Basketball Reference. Kopp's conference Offensive Rating (an estimate of points scored or points produced) was second lowest on the team among players with more than 300 minutes (the entire rotation except Greer and Berry).

Third lowest was Beran.

OTOH, to your point, the top two were Nance and Young.

On defense, the second and third worst conference Defensive Ratings were Kopp and Beran.

Nance and Young almost doubled the conference Win Shares of anyone else at 1.6 and 1.1. Beran contributed fewer win shares than Berry and Greer.

I wish it were as easy as playing Nance and Young, but if Buie, Audige shoot from three as they did last year, and nobody else can shoot from three, it will be too easy to pack it down on Nance and Young.

 

[Sec.112]

... will be curious to see how Collins adjusts, or if he just decides to plow ahead in the hope that they work better this year together.

I'm concerned your second theory is spot on. Is Robbie Beran the leading candidate for the Miller Kopp- Jeff Ryan Award for player who is given excessive opportunities and leeway without doing much of anything exceptional.

 

[combes]

I took a closer look at the success and failure of our various lineups from last year and realized a few things...
(Thanks again to the gentleman who creates the play-by-play box scores over on NUSports, they are excellent)
I calculated the ratio of "points we scored" to "points we allowed" when each player was on the court.

To my surprise, Miller Kopp was ranked highest, at .952 (meaning we scored 95.2 points for every 100 we allowed). He was followed by Buie at .925, Nance .922, Young .920, Berry .903, Beran .894, Greer .874, Audige .869, Gaines .865.

Since 5 guys play at one time, bad players will lower the ratings of good players and good players will raise the ratings of bad players.

I focused on the success of each player with every other player. How did NU perform when Gaines was out there with Kopp? Gaines with Beran? etc. The results were enlightening.

When Robbie Beran and Pete Nance played together, our performance PLUNGED to .828, a significant step down for both players. Beran was teamed with Nance for 72% of his playing time. This gave most people, including me, the distinct impression that Beran sucked. However, when Beran was paired with Ryan Young, NU performed at a 1.045 rate, a major step up for both players. Unfortunately Beran only played 27% of his time with Ryan Young. On the other side of that argument, Pete Nance was clearly better without Robbie Beran, performing at a winning 1.039 rate when teamed with anybody but Beran.

A similar situation existed with Anthony Gaines. His favorite pairing was Pete Nance, but they only performed at a .931 rate. His least favorite teammate to play alongside was Ryan Young. They performed together at a dismal .794 rate. Unfortunately, for Ryan Young, he played 62% of his minutes with Anthony Gaines. When Young played with "not Gaines," his performance rate was an excellent 1.15, strongly suggesting he is an "above average to good" starter in the Big Ten.

The other winning combo that played significant minutes was Ryan Young with Pete Nance. NU performed at a 1.07 rate when they were on the court together.

So what does this tell us? Beran and Young were (are) a winning combination. Nance and Young were (are) a winning combination. The only other 2-man NU combo that performed at a winning rate was in the backcourt - amazingly it was Ryan Greer paired with Boo Buie, who registered a 1.10 rate together. The worst backcourt combo was Greer with Audige, a horrific performance rate of .689, the lowest of all two man combos. Oddly, Greer played twice as much with Audige as he did with Buie, which suggests that the coaches did not notice.

So those are the numbers, the facts.

My conclusions are as follows... Ryan Young is our key player and must play as much as he can handle. We will be successful with either Beran or Nance at "power forward," though I prefer Nance. It might be worth trying Young, Nance and Beran together, since we didn't do that at all last season. Replacing Kopp's overall effectiveness is crucial. We will be much less successful than we should be if Nance plays the 5 with Beran at the 4. In short, they are similar players and they (irrefutably) don't work well together. It is possible that Greer and Buie should be the primary backcourt. Greer is our best passer and may simply put Buie and others in better shooting position. My guess is that Audige does not move well when he doesn't have the ball, so he and Greer are incompatible.

Hopefully Barnhizer, Simmons or Williams can fill capably in for Kopp at the 3.

End result... If Coach Collins simply plays Young and Nance together most of the game, with Nicholson and Beran off the bench and somebody fills in adequately for Kopp, we finish 6th or 7th, make the NCAA tournament again and Collins signs a nice, big contract. Thats my baseline expectation - the freshmen and sophomores will determine if we do better or worse.

So I'm optimistic...

Go Cats!

Did you do this for all the teams in the league? Otherwise, it means nothing as far as moving up the standings. 6th means 5 teams finish in front of you (Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State?). So Maryland, Indiana, Rutgers, Wisconsin, Iowa? Compare yourself with those teams by evaluating their rosters, too. I’m not saying you can’t finish that high. I’m probably higher on your team than most opposing fans, but if you told an Indiana fan that they would finish behind you, they would scoff. They have talent, including an All Big Ten center. Rutgers returns a lot and plays hard nose defense and rarely lose in their pit. Maryland is picked in the top five by some. You can’t just evaluate your team in a vacuum.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

The Beran-Nance-Young trio started 8 games in 2020, out of necessity when Turner went down with an injury. They played at an above average rate offensively and below average rate defensively, and played an average of 7 minutes per game together in those 8 games.

As far as the two man game laid out above, I think it's hard to extrapolate Buie-Greer off of 2.6 minutes per game or Beran-Young off of 5.3 mpg. Even the Nance-Young combo only got 7.6 mpg, mostly because while it was by far the best defensive pairing we put out, it was pretty terrible when it came to scoring points. Yes, that combo was +16, but they also had 17 more offensive possessions than defensive.

What is more concerning to me is the inability of Buie and Young to play together last year, as it was the 3rd-worst offensive combo on the team. They need to figure that out this season. Buie did not have the same issues with Beran or Nance.

One positive thing is that with Gaines leaving, we no longer have to worry about the black hole of the Audige-Gaines pairing or the Gaines-Young pairing, both of which were absolutely atrocious defensively and pretty bad on offense too. Audige does need to figure out how to play well with the bench players, as his play suffered far more than any other player when not playing with the starters.

I do agree that the Nance-Beran pairing did not work well last year, nor did the Audige-Beran pairing, and will be curious to see how Collins adjusts, or if he just decides to plow ahead in the hope that they work better this year together.

I agree with you that extrapolations are dangerous... but thats about all we have to work with numerically.

Thanks for posting how NU performed in 2020 with Beran, Young and Nance out there together. Its not particularly encouraging defensively, but I wouldn't totally rule it out because a couple of good "on ball" defenders can compensate for Beran's presumed difficulty guarding a smaller, quicker forward. On the other hand, if you score more and give up more, it is really the net that matters!

Your concerns about Buie with Young are legitimate, but there may be some solace in the "three man combos." Buie, Young and Gaines were an abysmal 136-192 on the scoreboard, which projects to a 70-50 loss in a full game. When Buie and Young played together without Gaines, they were 195-172 winners against the Big Ten, or about a 68-60 victory over a full game.

The same is also true of Audige and Young. When they were out there with Gaines they got outscored at a 77-55 pace. When Young and Audige played without Gaines, they played at a winning 70-62 pace.

 

[GatoLouco]

I am calling this from memory, but I believe the Beran/Nance/Young combo was playing when CC was in love with a 2-3 zone with horrendous principles/adjustments. Totally out of balance any time the offense overloaded one side of the zone.

That’s after a 1-3-1 worked for one game and was soon abandoned.

FWIW I don’t think their defensive inefficiency would have been as bad if they played more straight man to man. Slow feet but a lot of length to protect the basket.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

I get concerned about full season stats because they don't tell the complete story of how NU does against B10 competition. Too often, players rack it up against Directional U.

You might want to discuss your theory about the need to replace Kopp's effectiveness with Basketball Reference. Kopp's conference Offensive Rating (an estimate of points scored or points produced) was second lowest on the team among players with more than 300 minutes (the entire rotation except Greer and Berry).

Third lowest was Beran.

OTOH, to your point, the top two were Nance and Young.

On defense, the second and third worst conference Defensive Ratings were Kopp and Beran.

Nance and Young almost doubled the conference Win Shares of anyone else at 1.6 and 1.1. Beran contributed fewer win shares than Berry and Greer.

I wish it were as easy as playing Nance and Young, but if Buie, Audige shoot from three as they did last year, and nobody else can shoot from three, it will be too easy to pack it down on Nance and Young.

For what it is worth, the stats I used were only Big Ten games.

The stats you are looking at on Basketball Reference are useful but my goal was to look at our actual lineups and see how they performed, then look for reasons. I used those Basketball Reference Offensive ratings and defensive ratings and Win Shares to form my initial opinion that Young and Nance were our two best players "in a vacuum."
However, those stats are based purely on the box scores (shots taken, made, turnovers, steals, rebounds, etc) and they have some complicated formulas to rate player performance.

They don't have any way to account for the quality of the players you played alongside. In other words, If Pete Nance and Ryan Young have the same Offensive rating and Defensive rating, but Nance is out there with the starters and Young is out there with the bench players, then you'd have to conclude that Young is more effective than Nance, even though Basketball Reference says they are equal.

The play-by-play box scores make it pretty clear that Nance and Beran, who played most of their time together, were bad for each other and that the team was significantly better when either of those guys was paired with Ryan Young. Beran played 72% of his minutes with Pete Nance. The only other really obvious fact was that Gaines and Young performed together poorly. I don't really know why that was, but if Collins was using Young at the 5, Kopp at power forward, Gaines at the 3 and then two guards, it just might not have worked. All I know for sure is that Young played more than 60% of his minutes with Anthony Gaines and that seriously depressed Young's overall stats.

Well out of curiosity I looked at Young, Kopp and Gaines without Beran or Nance and they got outscored 186-119, which is about an 80-51 pace for a whole game. They played 93 minutes together, getting smoked.

 

[pawildcat]

Quite the statistical analysis, but the answer to how Chris Collins gets 10 more years basically boils down to one thing — win more games.

 

[Hungry Jack]

Young and Beran/Nance, Colter and Siemian...