Putting aside the BTT, I’d say 5 more wins (11-9) puts us comfortably in, 4 more (10-10) keeps us sweating. Where are we going to find 5 wins? Best chance would seem to be 4 of last 5 at home (W over MI, IU, IA, PSU, assume L to PU), steal 1 of last 6 on the road (IA, WI, OSU, IL, MD, RU). Man, the conference is tough this year.
How many more wins do we need?
- Thread starter ParisCat
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The conference is very balanced, outside of Purdue. There are a bunch of really good teams, but I don’t see any of them as unbeatable on a given day.
4 should probably do it if it is during the season. Might take 5 if it takes the BTT to get to 4
IMO we need 6 more to be comfortably in. 5 more requires us to win 1 in BTT. 4 more wins requires atleast 2 wins in BTT.
The key to me is the perception of the Big Ten to the committee. There is only one really good team in the Big Ten. If the committee thinks that the next 12 teams are all mediocre, rather than good teams beating up on each other, they may think that 10 conference wins isn't that big of a deal.
I'd feel safe with five more wins. If NU finishes 10-10 and gets like the sixth seed, they'd DEFINITELY have to beat the 11/14 winner or it would be considered a bad loss at that point. Get to 11-9 and get the fourth/fifth seed, then they're getting a double-bye, but they'd have that fifth win in the bank and a loss in the tourney would be to a fourth/fifth seed. That's the long way of saying "five wins."
Of course, if they keep winning, they might be playing the seventh seed after the double-bye.
I'd feel safe with five more wins. If NU finishes 10-10 and gets like the sixth seed, they'd DEFINITELY have to beat the 11/14 winner or it would be considered a bad loss at that point. Get to 11-9 and get the fourth/fifth seed, then they're getting a double-bye, but they'd have that fifth win in the bank and a loss in the tourney would be to a fourth/fifth seed. That's the long way of saying "five wins."
Of course, if they keep winning, they might be playing the seventh seed after the double-bye.
I think the conference is actually down from last year and we have a decent chance in each of the games we have left.
Of course it's down! Northwestern is having a good year. Isn't that what we'll hear if NU contends for the title?
We got exceptional leg 🦵 speed! Perhaps best in the nation! We are going to close the deal
Hard to say we are contending for a title. Contending for top third? Definitely. Top 3? Maybe. Title? Not really
I am not that deep into the inner workings of selection for the tournament. My perceptions are a lot based on what happened in previous seasons.
I don’t feel that, in most cases, the conference tournament played much of a role. It’s more a don’t lose to a MN, or you might be screwed. Or reach the final and you might be rewarded. Everything in between is status quo. You’ve done what you could.
Last year IU (I believe) got in at 9-11. But that was a very different SOS from what usual bubble teams have. Let alone what we have, our SOS was pitiful. Dare I say the school brand played a role? Ours does not
Last year 10-10 probably got you in even with a less-than-stellar SOS. This year the conference is weaker, not by a lot but it is. Does not matter if you think it is or not. It matters what the numbers out there tell you. Probably 1 less bid.
So my gut tells me we need 11 wins and not poop the bed on the 2nd day of the BTT or we'll be sweating bullets. 12 and you can lose to Iowa by 50.
I don’t feel that, in most cases, the conference tournament played much of a role. It’s more a don’t lose to a MN, or you might be screwed. Or reach the final and you might be rewarded. Everything in between is status quo. You’ve done what you could.
Last year IU (I believe) got in at 9-11. But that was a very different SOS from what usual bubble teams have. Let alone what we have, our SOS was pitiful. Dare I say the school brand played a role? Ours does not
Last year 10-10 probably got you in even with a less-than-stellar SOS. This year the conference is weaker, not by a lot but it is. Does not matter if you think it is or not. It matters what the numbers out there tell you. Probably 1 less bid.
So my gut tells me we need 11 wins and not poop the bed on the 2nd day of the BTT or we'll be sweating bullets. 12 and you can lose to Iowa by 50.
Let’s get to 11 in the regular season so we don’t need the extra help in the BTT to avoid a first four game. Gotta finish in the top 9 in the Big Ten.
I don't think it is weaker. It seems to be playing out about the same. Last year 9 got selected and this year is projected to be about the same.
Last year no one was 10-10. That would appear to be a reason IND was able to be selected. I would think 10-10 gets it done this year unless more than 9 teams have record of 10-10 or better
OOC is also high relevant here. Indiana had wins over a ranked Xavier and UNC last year. Quite different than the NU OOC schedule.
That’s only a rule of thumb. 3 P5 teams last year had over 20 wins and ended up in the NIT. Two had 23! You’re PROBABLY right about NU getting to 20 this year, though, since that would be 10-10 with no bad losses and at least several very good wins.
Edit: lol, I’m dumb, 20 wins is 9-11, probably short
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The 2015-2016 team would like a word
I am being cautiously optimist that the team will make the NCAA tournament. However, although it is nice to see them 2nd or 3rd in the Big Ten standings, they are still being projected as as like a 10-seed or bubble team in some recent bracketology estimates. I sense that some of the non-conference teams scheduled are weighing down the overall strength of schedule and it is reflecting in computer ratings, although the Wildcats do have a some quality wins to show the Committee competitiveness with tournament quality teams.
These are the Wildcats' Current Computer Ratings:
NET - #39
KenPom - #43
RPI - #61
Computer ratings in the upper #30s, #40s and beyond puts in that more in the unsettled category towards getting a spot in the NCAA tournament spot due to the automatic bids issued to teams from low and mid-major conferences with schools well outside the top 68. The NET is the main rating guiding the selection committee. Last year in 2022, NET-ranked #40 Oklahoma was the highest rated team to NOT make the tournament so we're right in that zone of probable but not absolutely certain right now.
These are some recent Big Ten teams that did not make the NCAA tournament despite seemingly strong regular season credentials:
2007-08 Ohio State - 19-12 (10-8)
2009-10 Illinois - 18-13 (10-8)
2015-16 Ohio State - 19-12 (11-7)
2016-17 Iowa - 18-13 (10-8)
2017--18 Nebraska - 22-9 (13-5)
Like 2017-18 Nebraska, the Wildcats non-conference strength of schedule is relatively low. In conference, the Big Ten is not at its high point, but it is also not down like it was in 2017-18. Where Northwestern has a chance to distinguish from that Nebraska team is getting quality wins. 2017-18 Nebraska had just one win against another team that ended up in the NCAA tournament. While the Wildcats have already beaten likely tournament teams Michigan State and Illinois, along with possible/probable NCAA teams Indiana and Wisconsin.
I think the team will need seven (7) more wins to basically be safe to make the Big Dance going into the Big Ten tournament, which would be mean a 22-9 overall record and 13-7 in the Big Ten (would mean going 7-4 the rest of the way for the regular season). Six (6) more regular season wins at 22-10 (12-8) would probably mean being off the bubble, but not comfortably. Winning 4 or 5 more games would make the team 19-12 (10-10) or 20-11 respectively. I believe that 19 to 20 zone would make the team still alive for a chance at making the NCAA tournament, but with needing a combination of needing a win or 2 in the Big Ten tournament and hoping for not too many major or mid-major conference tournament upsets.
These are the Wildcats' Current Computer Ratings:
NET - #39
KenPom - #43
RPI - #61
Computer ratings in the upper #30s, #40s and beyond puts in that more in the unsettled category towards getting a spot in the NCAA tournament spot due to the automatic bids issued to teams from low and mid-major conferences with schools well outside the top 68. The NET is the main rating guiding the selection committee. Last year in 2022, NET-ranked #40 Oklahoma was the highest rated team to NOT make the tournament so we're right in that zone of probable but not absolutely certain right now.
These are some recent Big Ten teams that did not make the NCAA tournament despite seemingly strong regular season credentials:
2007-08 Ohio State - 19-12 (10-8)
2009-10 Illinois - 18-13 (10-8)
2015-16 Ohio State - 19-12 (11-7)
2016-17 Iowa - 18-13 (10-8)
2017--18 Nebraska - 22-9 (13-5)
Like 2017-18 Nebraska, the Wildcats non-conference strength of schedule is relatively low. In conference, the Big Ten is not at its high point, but it is also not down like it was in 2017-18. Where Northwestern has a chance to distinguish from that Nebraska team is getting quality wins. 2017-18 Nebraska had just one win against another team that ended up in the NCAA tournament. While the Wildcats have already beaten likely tournament teams Michigan State and Illinois, along with possible/probable NCAA teams Indiana and Wisconsin.
I think the team will need seven (7) more wins to basically be safe to make the Big Dance going into the Big Ten tournament, which would be mean a 22-9 overall record and 13-7 in the Big Ten (would mean going 7-4 the rest of the way for the regular season). Six (6) more regular season wins at 22-10 (12-8) would probably mean being off the bubble, but not comfortably. Winning 4 or 5 more games would make the team 19-12 (10-10) or 20-11 respectively. I believe that 19 to 20 zone would make the team still alive for a chance at making the NCAA tournament, but with needing a combination of needing a win or 2 in the Big Ten tournament and hoping for not too many major or mid-major conference tournament upsets.
Let’s win the BTT; that will remove all doubt.
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