Putting aside the BTT, I’d say 5 more wins (11-9) puts us comfortably in, 4 more (10-10) keeps us sweating. Where are we going to find 5 wins? Best chance would seem to be 4 of last 5 at home (W over MI, IU, IA, PSU, assume L to PU), steal 1 of last 6 on the road (IA, WI, OSU, IL, MD, RU). Man, the conference is tough this year.