Assuming no significant upsets:
Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State all go to some combination of CFP/Rose Bowl/NY6.
Citrus: Has historically taken the loser of the B1G title game/highest-ranked available team. In theory, we would be both, unless Ohio State beats us so badly that we fall behind Iowa in the "other teams receiving votes" (even though that's not a thing in the CFP rankings). Only teams to go to Citrus during this contracted period are Michigan and Minnesota, who are non-factors.
Outback: Scheduling agreement dictates five different teams over six-year contract, theoretically pushing out Iowa, Mich, NU, and Wisconsin...leaving Michigan State as my best guess because...
Holiday Bowl: Scheduling agreement dictates five different teams over six-year contract, theoretically pushing out Minny, Neb, Sparty, and Wisconsin (leaving Iowa as my best guess).
Gator Bowl: No Penn State or Iowa...leaving Wisconsin as my best guess.
Pinstripe: No Indiana, Iowa, NU, or Penn State...leaving Purdue, because...
Redbox: No Indy, UMD, Nebraska, or Purdue...leaving Minnesota.
It seems unlikely for the Citrus Bowl and the Big Ten office to go back on precedents they've already set, and take a lower-ranked Iowa team that we beat for the past two years...they've also been to Florida for bowl games in three of the past five years (whereas we have been two of the last six).
If there are upsets:
Georgia beats Alabama - no biggie here, Penn State stays in the Top 12/NY6.
Utah beats Washington - no biggie, Penn State stays in the Top 12, possibly rises to 11th.
UCF loses - Penn State stays Top 12, probably rises.
Pitt beats Clemson - pushes Penn State out of the Top 12 - bad for us...but I'm not losing any sleep on this possibility.
The only major X-factor we have to worry about is if Texas beats Oklahoma...if that happens, Texas jumps into the Top 12 and OU probably doesn't fall below 12th, pushing Penn State out of NY6. At that point, they'd have a solid case to go to Citrus as the higher-ranked team...and then we're looking at Jacksonville, because Iowa has already been there, Outback, and Pinstripe during this contracted period, and can't really go anywhere besides San Diego (we last went to Jax before the current bowl cycle/agreements).
Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State all go to some combination of CFP/Rose Bowl/NY6.
Citrus: Has historically taken the loser of the B1G title game/highest-ranked available team. In theory, we would be both, unless Ohio State beats us so badly that we fall behind Iowa in the "other teams receiving votes" (even though that's not a thing in the CFP rankings). Only teams to go to Citrus during this contracted period are Michigan and Minnesota, who are non-factors.
Outback: Scheduling agreement dictates five different teams over six-year contract, theoretically pushing out Iowa, Mich, NU, and Wisconsin...leaving Michigan State as my best guess because...
Holiday Bowl: Scheduling agreement dictates five different teams over six-year contract, theoretically pushing out Minny, Neb, Sparty, and Wisconsin (leaving Iowa as my best guess).
Gator Bowl: No Penn State or Iowa...leaving Wisconsin as my best guess.
Pinstripe: No Indiana, Iowa, NU, or Penn State...leaving Purdue, because...
Redbox: No Indy, UMD, Nebraska, or Purdue...leaving Minnesota.
It seems unlikely for the Citrus Bowl and the Big Ten office to go back on precedents they've already set, and take a lower-ranked Iowa team that we beat for the past two years...they've also been to Florida for bowl games in three of the past five years (whereas we have been two of the last six).
If there are upsets:
Georgia beats Alabama - no biggie here, Penn State stays in the Top 12/NY6.
Utah beats Washington - no biggie, Penn State stays in the Top 12, possibly rises to 11th.
UCF loses - Penn State stays Top 12, probably rises.
Pitt beats Clemson - pushes Penn State out of the Top 12 - bad for us...but I'm not losing any sleep on this possibility.
The only major X-factor we have to worry about is if Texas beats Oklahoma...if that happens, Texas jumps into the Top 12 and OU probably doesn't fall below 12th, pushing Penn State out of NY6. At that point, they'd have a solid case to go to Citrus as the higher-ranked team...and then we're looking at Jacksonville, because Iowa has already been there, Outback, and Pinstripe during this contracted period, and can't really go anywhere besides San Diego (we last went to Jax before the current bowl cycle/agreements).
