Except Reinsdorf doesn't think that way. Unless the states taxpayers will pay the cash.
OT: Baseball offseason and free agents 2019-2020 edition
- Thread starter Alvious
- Start date
Ah, now it’s $118, even more than first reported, then. I dunno. That’s the kind of contract for a pitcher that looks good year 1/2 and by year 4 you’re wondering why the hell you ever did it.
Plus there’s this:
Can’t do anything about a player’s preferences.
UPDATE: Yeah, this contract could work out, but there's almost no margin for error.
Starting from the assumption that 1 WAR is worth $8M on the free agent market, Wheeler will have to put up just north of 3 WAR per season to justify the (rounded/equalized) $24M annual outlay on this contract.
Wheeler has exceeded that number the last two years - Fangraphs and Baseball Reference disagree somewhat on his WAR figures, as one has him in the mid 4s and the other in the high 3s, but he safely met that standard in 2018-19.
The problem is that Wheeler has missed as many full seasons to injury as he has exceeded 3 WAR. And Fangraphs, which was more generous in its WAR evals the last few years, project him to be right at 3 WAR so far. And that can't adjust for the park factors of moving from a very pitcher-friendly park to the opposite. This is a pitcher who at 29 has already had Tommy John surgery, plus separate DL stints for a flexor strain, biceps tendinitis, and a stress reaction in his pitching arm. Any extended absences due to injury almost certainly wipe out the value of the contract.
Now, the Phillies have to be all in after the Arrieta/Harper deals the last few offseasons, and Wheeler is a young free agent with plenty of talent. So it's probably a good idea for them, especially if they feel like Cole/Strasburg are out of their league. But there's lots of risk here, and they have to give up the high draft pick from the qualifying offer NYM made Wheeler.
As for the Sox, Hyun-Jin Ryu has every bit as much of injury risk as Wheeler, but he's been better than Wheeler was the last two years, with much stronger peripherals and an extremely good profile to succeed at Comiskey in that he doesn't walk anyone or give up homers. Who knows if he'd leave the Dodgers, but he's probably going to get a similar AAV as Wheeler over a shorter term - 3/$70-75 seems reasonable. I'd prefer him at that price point than Wheeler, but that's just me.
Last edited:
That's not a bad deal for the Phils. Wheeler turns 30 next May and has demonstrated his elbow is fine. He has had two good years since his recovery year.
The guy the Sox should have pursued was Kyle Gibson.
The guy the Sox should have pursued was Kyle Gibson.
Guess the North Side didn’t have any room in the budget. Who us replacing Hamels again?
From what I read, the Sox offered 5 yrs $120 million, but Wheeler wanted to stay on the east coast near New Jersey, where his wife's family lives. So it seems like he was just using them to increase the bidding. Oh well, at least Minnesota didn't get him.
Sox offer was 5/125. I know that for a 100% fact
His agent and him used the Sox as leverage and it worked to a T. Whatever. He's a solid pitcher that's high risk/high reward. Win some, lose some.
PS - willycat is still the worst poster on these boards and that is saying something
Awesome post. Agree with everything said.
The Phillies are banking on winning a WS in the next 3ish years with the money they've spent. They're going to be in lux tax hell soon
Rumor has it that Marcell Ozuna is about to sign with the White Sox. This would reunite him with his hitting coach Frank Menechino, who worked with Ozuna in Miami where he put up his best numbers.
But I read it on the internet! It has to be true!
If they do or if they don't, I'm ok with it.
Gee what happened to that big time Wheeler signing? They must we waiting to offer Cole, right? NOT! Maybe they could sign Shields, again.
I reached out to Jeff Passan and a few other guys... unless we are all being lied to (definitely plausible) it's not true
Enjoy trading Bryant or Contreras because Theo butchered the Cubs payroll
Gee Wilkers Willy what a great thought. So your boys, dump Hamels, get rid of their of the wife beater that started for them as a 22 year old and sign/trade for no one and you still pop off! Can’t think of many teams that had this young talent and has gone backwards so quickly.
Oh and there is not a GM in the league that would rather have Babe than Eloy, but I guess that is why you are just a fan. I am sure we are only a few days away from more of your Eloy nonsense since original thoughts are not your forte.
24, what you hearing on Dallas Keuchel? Levine said either the Cubs or the Sox. Said Cubs will get a SP in FA.
Yes, which was awesome. It's nice to win one. Glad you finally got to join us in that experience.
When was that again? And they still had lots of empty seats in September of that year!
Shine up that attendance trophy!!! How proud you are!
Stephen Strasburg goes back to Washington for 7yrs/$245 million.
Ryu, Bumgarner, Keuchel et al just got a whole lot more expensive.
Ryu, Bumgarner, Keuchel et al just got a whole lot more expensive.
They might be better suited letting Rendon go and signing Donaldson to a shorter deal.
Nothing specifically on Keuchel other than they've checked in, but don't be surprised for a big time trade in the coming days
I believe the Nats' owner said they'd only sign one of the two. That leaves Rendon on the outside looking in. He's from Houston (I think that was mentioned once or twice during the World Series) and would seem to be a good fit with the Rangers.
Yeah, there's no shot they sign Rendon now. He'll get something around what Arenado got last winter. I think LA, Rangers, dark horse in that order
It’s too much money. He won’t be able to support that value down the back half via performance on the front half, even though I’m sure he’ll be plenty good years 1-3. Makings of an albatross in years 4-7.
Would it prove the case for the Kid Gloves the Nats used on him at the start of his career if he did? (Probably a moot point, tho a good talk radio take.)
I’m definitely rooting for him.
